Astros Success

[harmony]

Sports Illustrated called it in this 2014 cover story:

 

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/10/mlb-world-series-astros-sports-illustrated-cover-2014

What is frightening is that the Houston Astros flat-out released J.D. Martinez on March 22 of that year. The Tigers signed Martinez two days later and the rest is history.

 

Imagine the 2017 Astros with J.D. Martinez.

[Bellhorn04]

What is frightening is that the Houston Astros flat-out released J.D. Martinez on March 22 of that year. The Tigers signed Martinez two days later and the rest is history.

 

Imagine the 2017 Astros with J.D. Martinez.

 

Thanks for reminding us of another great move by Dombrowski!

[Bellhorn04]

You can always play those 'what if' games though right? Like if the Dodgers had traded for Verlander instead of Darvish...

[OH FOY]

What if the Sox didn't Trade Marwin Gonzalez for Marco Duarte.

[Kimmi]

If Ben did in fact have a '5 year plan', they sure as heck spent a lot on Pablo/Hanley/Porcello/Castillo, all on deals that were potentially at least 5 years long.

 

Part of the difficulty in Ben's 'rebuilding' plan is that he could not go into full blown rebuild mode. He had to try to keep the team competitive while waiting for the plan to pan out.

 

Porcello and Castillo were part of the 5 year plan, players that would be strong contributors beginning in 2016. Porcello worked out like Ben expected in 2016, not so much this year. Castillo has been a complete flop to date.

 

Hanley was not part of the 'plan', per se, but was rather a player signed to keep the team competitive in 2015, with hopes that he could become the DH once Papi left.

 

Pablo was not Ben's choice.

[moonslav59]

Part of the difficulty in Ben's 'rebuilding' plan is that he could not go into full blown rebuild mode. He had to try to keep the team competitive while waiting for the plan to pan out.

 

Porcello and Castillo were part of the 5 year plan, players that would be strong contributors beginning in 2016. Porcello worked out like Ben expected in 2016, not so much this year. Castillo has been a complete flop to date.

 

Hanley was not part of the 'plan', per se, but was rather a player signed to keep the team competitive in 2015, with hopes that he could become the DH once Papi left.

 

Pablo was not Ben's choice.

 

If Ben wasn't in on the HRam and Pablo signings, then he wasn't even the real GM.

 

I do think upper management signed off on the 5 year plan idea, and Ben would have eventually traded several prospects, but you are right. He was supposed to stay competitive during the 4 years. Finishing in last for 3 years outweighed the ring, and it became Ben's fault when HRam & Pablo failed, and Porcello peaked a year too late.

[Kimmi]

If Ben wasn't in on the HRam and Pablo signings, then he wasn't even the real GM.

 

I do think upper management signed off on the 5 year plan idea, and Ben would have eventually traded several prospects, but you are right. He was supposed to stay competitive during the 4 years. Finishing in last for 3 years outweighed the ring, and it became Ben's fault when HRam & Pablo failed, and Porcello peaked a year too late.

 

Ben (or Theo) never had complete autonomy. That was part of the problem. Look at what Theo was able to do once he was given that autonomy with the Cubs.

[moonslav59]

Ben (or Theo) never had complete autonomy. That was part of the problem. Look at what Theo was able to do once he was given that autonomy with the Cubs.

 

Well, if it's true that Larry was behind the Dodger dump trade (as well as the Schilling and Beckett trades), then maybe it wasn't as much of a "problem" as we sometimes try to make it out to be.

 

I'm just tired of the mix and match criticism. I'm not much into the blame game, but when we do, we should either blame the GM for everything or just look at every move as an organizational decision and blame the whole FO not the GM. One or the other. (I'm not saying you do this, Kimmi.)

[sk7326]

The signing of veterans to attain 'transient mediocrity' worked out pretty well for the Sox in 2013. Not so much in '14 and '15.

 

Except the Red Sox in 2012 had (on paper) an 85-90 team already if they just stayed healthy!

[sk7326]

The 2013 Red Sox season was an outlier.

 

The 2013 season was in large part the 2011 team which won 90 games (while blowing a playoff spot of course) with some decent health and a couple of out of nowhere seasons (which you always need). So much of the 2012 disaster was injury related that simply normal health was going to put them at least above average.

[a700hitter]

Part of the difficulty in Ben's 'rebuilding' plan is that he could not go into full blown rebuild mode. He had to try to keep the team competitive while waiting for the plan to pan out.

.

He did a horrible job at that. In the end it was a very expensive and wasteful rebuild.

[Spudboy]

He did a horrible job at that. In the end it was a very expensive and wasteful rebuild.

 

If Boy Blunder was such hot s*** in stocking a strong farm system why would he ever have to effect a rebuild?

 

Certainly a rich and deep farm system keeps a team competitive regardless. Otherwise there would be a cliff.

 

Some things just don't add up.

[a700hitter]

If Boy Blunder was such hot s*** in stocking a strong farm system why would he ever have to effect a rebuild?

 

Certainly a rich and deep farm system keeps a team competitive regardless. Otherwise there would be a cliff.

 

Some things just don't add up.

What adds up is that going into his third year since being fired, no one has offered Basement Benny a GM job. That speaks volumes.

[jacksonianmarch]

Teams willing to consistently outspend the cap don't have a cliff. I highly doubt John Henry is willing to fill his holes with money on a permanent basis. Once Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Sale, Kimbrel, Pomeranz et al get expensive, I think DD will have to get creative because you wont be able to keep them all. That is where having a deep farm can save you. But DD dealt away the farm and now there is a noticeable gap in talent at the top. This is why you have a cliff. Henry prioritized the fans over development. Dave would have been better off riding it out for 16-17 and then going for it all in 18-19 when the FA market is better and with another big draft in the rear view mirror. Instead, he's got a 93 win team that is entering 2018 as banged up as ever with nearly no money coming off the books and no big prospects ready to step in. He has to fix the roster with money, and he is doing so a year or so before he has to. When he spends this offseason, it seals the fate of the cliff because there wont be any money left to lock up the true core of this team.

 

I also read one post here about how you can "rebuild with one big trade at the deadline". That is absolutely not true. Yes, the Yankees did really well at their 2016 deadline, but we graduated Sanchez, Bird, Severino, and Judge in that time and dealt for Frazier, Robertson, Kahnle, Gray and Garcia with guys who we either drafted/signed or dealt off other low level players for. We kept the big names obtained from the Miller, McCann, Chapman, and Beltran deals. We rebuilt with our own players and now we have a top farm with a mix of the guys we traded for and guys we drafted and developed and have a title contending team led by guys we drafted or signed. If you think the rebuild happened in one mid season, you are entirely incorrect

[moonslav59]

Teams willing to consistently outspend the cap don't have a cliff.

 

By the sounds of it, many here viewed Ben's tenure as a 4 year canyon full of cliffs... yet we remained a top spending team all 4 years.

 

It can happen.

[sk7326]

Teams willing to consistently outspend the cap don't have a cliff.

 

By the sounds of it, many here viewed Ben's tenure as a 4 year canyon full of cliffs... yet we remained a top spending team all 4 years.

 

It can happen.

 

The cliffs were not because they didn't try - or because of weird financial constraints. They were because the players did not perform as planned. That is a huge difference than pretending the Red Sox are a mid-tier college football team.

[moonslav59]

The cliffs were not because they didn't try - or because of weird financial constraints. They were because the players did not perform as planned. That is a huge difference than pretending the Red Sox are a mid-tier college football team.

 

Who is pretending that?

 

DD built this team for a cycle not for an extended balance run. It's obvious we will be much better in the next two years than year 4 to 5 or maybe even 3-4.

 

We didn't buy our way to contention in 2014 and 2015, but that doesn't mean we're "mid tier". We were a top spending team as will be in 2020 and 2021. That isn't always enough to win as 2012, 2014 and 2015 showed us.

 

It is not a freak occurrence that almost all our major players reach free agency in a 2-3 year window. It was planned. Unless we spend $250M, we are not keeping everybody or replacing some IN KIND through free agency. Unless you think we spend $250M and/or Travis, Ockimey and Chavis will come to the rescue, we're going to hit a cliff, or at least a very steep hill. It's not an automatic slam dunk, and I guess you guys can cling to that sliver of hope that lower ranked prospects than the ones we traded away are going to come through for us, and/or we'll never swing and miss on bi FA signings again.

 

This is not meant to sound like "gloom and doom". I doubt we finish in last place in 2020 or 2021, but it will be close to impossible to be a top contender without spending $250M (plus taxes) and having some prospects come through in big ways.

[mvp 78]

If Boy Blunder was such hot s*** in stocking a strong farm system why would he ever have to effect a rebuild?

 

Certainly a rich and deep farm system keeps a team competitive regardless. Otherwise there would be a cliff.

 

Some things just don't add up.

 

Ben's drafts:

2012 - s***

2013 - s***

2014 - decent

2015 - s*** aside from Benintendi

 

Combine that with the international free agent nonsense the Sox were involved in, that's the reason the farm hit a bit of a wall. Not everything is DD's fault.

[mvp 78]

Teams willing to consistently outspend the cap don't have a cliff.

 

By the sounds of it, many here viewed Ben's tenure as a 4 year canyon full of cliffs... yet we remained a top spending team all 4 years.

 

It can happen.

 

That's what happens when you spend money on players that are dog s*** like Panda and Hanley.

[sk7326]

Who is pretending that?

 

DD built this team for a cycle not for an extended balance run. It's obvious we will be much better in the next two years than year 4 to 5 or maybe even 3-4.

 

We didn't buy our way to contention in 2014 and 2015, but that doesn't mean we're "mid tier". We were a top spending team as will be in 2020 and 2021. That isn't always enough to win as 2012, 2014 and 2015 showed us.

 

It is not a freak occurrence that almost all our major players reach free agency in a 2-3 year window. It was planned. Unless we spend $250M, we are not keeping everybody or replacing some IN KIND through free agency. Unless you think we spend $250M and/or Travis, Ockimey and Chavis will come to the rescue, we're going to hit a cliff, or at least a very steep hill. It's not an automatic slam dunk, and I guess you guys can cling to that sliver of hope that lower ranked prospects than the ones we traded away are going to come through for us, and/or we'll never swing and miss on bi FA signings again.

 

This is not meant to sound like "gloom and doom". I doubt we finish in last place in 2020 or 2021, but it will be close to impossible to be a top contender without spending $250M (plus taxes) and having some prospects come through in big ways.

 

Yes and no. It was not planned that Betts would catch up and overtake the class above him.

 

What will happen is there will be a few of the young stars who will stay (although ALL OF THEM STAYING is an option the Red Sox have that other teams don't) - and other guys who leave or get dealt. There will be other good players staffed via trade, maybe a big FA. And then maybe it's somebody in the organization like a Travis - or maybe it's fishing for more fungible big league assets who usually don't cost much money (middle of the road corner bats, defensive infielders).

 

Really the title team lineups were the stars we all know backed up by meh veterans on short hitches like Mike Carp, Eric Hinske, Daniel Nava. The trickier thing is finding those guys consistently. There are enough of those journeymen around in any given year for a team like the Red Sox to fill in gaps. (a team like Tampa on the other hand is better off giving it to a kiddo - assuming they have a lot of gaps)

[moonslav59]

Ben's drafts:

2012 - s***

2013 - s***

2014 - decent

2015 - s*** aside from Benintendi

 

Combine that with the international free agent nonsense the Sox were involved in, that's the reason the farm hit a bit of a wall. Not everything is DD's fault.

 

That's "the" reason?

 

Really?

 

He did draft Kopech which was a big part of getting us Sale. Maddox and Chavis could help, too.

 

I wouldn't crap on the international signings.

 

Lin

Guerra (used to get Kimbrel)

Both Basabe's (used to get players)

Rijo

Moncada (used to get Sale)

Devers (one of the few bright spots beyond the window)

J Diaz

Espinoza (used to get Pom)

 

The farm DD inherited, in which some were Theo gets, was light years better thsan we have now. Trying to spin this into being Ben's fault is fake news.

 

They weren't great drafts, for sure.

[moonslav59]

That's what happens when you spend money on players that are dog s*** like Panda and Hanley.

 

...or maybe Price and our next big splash signing?

[moonslav59]

What will happen is there will be a few of the young stars who will stay (although ALL OF THEM STAYING is an option the Red Sox have that other teams don't) - and other guys who leave or get dealt. There will be other good players staffed via trade, maybe a big FA.

 

You can't make big trades unless you have players and prospects to trade.

 

You can't keep all the young stars and make big FA signings, unless we spend $250M+ on our payroll.

 

Yes, that could happen, but why didn't we sign Scherzer, if the sky is the limit?

 

I'll beliueve it when I see it. Until then, I'm assuming we stay near the luxury tax budget limit with occasional spikes here and there along with reset years here and there.

[sk7326]

What will happen is there will be a few of the young stars who will stay (although ALL OF THEM STAYING is an option the Red Sox have that other teams don't) - and other guys who leave or get dealt. There will be other good players staffed via trade, maybe a big FA.

 

You can't make big trades unless you have players and prospects to trade.

 

You can't keep all the young stars and make big FA signings, unless we spend $250M+ on our payroll.

 

Yes, that could happen, but why didn't we sign Scherzer, if the sky is the limit?

 

I'll beliueve it when I see it. Until then, I'm assuming we stay near the luxury tax budget limit with occasional spikes here and there along with reset years here and there.

 

They might not have wanted to sign Scherzer and though Price would be a better investment for that deal. So far that looks problematic - although not for the reason I would have expected.

[mvp 78]

That's "the" reason?

 

Really?

 

He did draft Kopech which was a big part of getting us Sale. Maddox and Chavis could help, too.

 

I wouldn't crap on the international signings.

 

Lin

Guerra (used to get Kimbrel)

Both Basabe's (used to get players)

Rijo

Moncada (used to get Sale)

Devers (one of the few bright spots beyond the window)

J Diaz

Espinoza (used to get Pom)

 

The farm DD inherited, in which some were Theo gets, was light years better thsan we have now. Trying to spin this into being Ben's fault is fake news.

 

They weren't great drafts, for sure.

 

Poor drafts plus international signing restrictions are a bigger problem than trading away lottery tickets.

[moonslav59]

Poor drafts plus international signing restrictions are a bigger problem than trading away lottery tickets.

 

The one year penalty did not take away from the excellent international players Ben left DD- most of whom were traded away for Sale and Pom.

 

Ben did NOT leave DD with a bad farm. Any spin that implies otherwise is just that: spin.

[moonslav59]

Poor drafts plus international signing restrictions are a bigger problem than trading away lottery tickets.

 

So, theoretical international signings missed are worth more than actual ones that were rated so highly we got Sale and Pom for them.

[mvp 78]

The one year penalty did not take away from the excellent international players Ben left DD- most of whom were traded away for Sale and Pom.

 

Ben did NOT leave DD with a bad farm. Any spin that implies otherwise is just that: spin.

 

No, Ben just didn't add a lick to Theo's farm which left the Sox in a bad position.

[moonslav59]

No, Ben just didn't add a lick to Theo's farm which left the Sox in a bad position.

 

Not adding a "lick"?

 

Players Ben added to Theo's farm:

Beni

Devers

Moncada

Kopech

Espinoza

Chavis

Travis

Basabe

Basabe

Maddox

Victor Diaz

Lin

Guerra

Rijo

 

WOW!

 

I just hope DD can add half this amount in 4 years.

[mvp 78]

Not adding a "lick"?

 

Players Ben added to Theo's farm:

Beni

Devers

Moncada

Kopech

Espinoza

Chavis

Travis

Basabe

Basabe

Maddox

Victor Diaz

Lin

Guerra

Rijo

 

WOW!

 

I just hope DD can add half this amount in 4 years.

 

So, 2 legit major leaguers and a whole lot of blah? Ok.