A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Nick]

Maybe not enough value to justify the added cost.

 

it's all Ben's fault for signing Sandoval.

[moonslav59]

it's all Ben's fault for signing Sandoval.

 

...and HRam's and Price's and...

[mvp 78]

...and HRam's and Price's and...

 

At least the Price deal can be justified that you need to pay a premium for a FA top of the rotation starter who can go 200+ innings. The only issue was that it didn't make sense to offer that deal to Price when they let Lester just walk away for less money.

[Spudboy]

At least the Price deal can be justified that you need to pay a premium for a FA top of the rotation starter who can go 200+ innings. The only issue was that it didn't make sense to offer that deal to Price when they let Lester just walk away for less money.

 

Boom.

[mvp 78]

 

Season over. Beni cut his hair.

[moonslav59]

At least the Price deal can be justified that you need to pay a premium for a FA top of the rotation starter who can go 200+ innings. The only issue was that it didn't make sense to offer that deal to Price when they let Lester just walk away for less money.

 

I don't disagree, but if any bi contract was not part of our budget, we wouldn't have to worry about the tax on Castillo.

[Nick]

...and HRam's and Price's and...

 

We don't win the division without Price in 2016. DD did what he had to do, 3 last places in 4 years.

 

Do you honestly think he wasn't going to sign Price? Hell, we could have just kept Ben if you wanted to come in dead last.

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

 

#RedSox injury updates:

 

* Pedroia cleared to run. But plan remains a cautious build to MLB games in May/June.

 

* Rodriguez and Wright throwing. Wright, as expected, further along in his program and would be Opening Day ready. Rodriguez more mid-April.

[moonslav59]

We don't win the division without Price in 2016. DD did what he had to do, 3 last places in 4 years.

 

Do you honestly think he wasn't going to sign Price? Hell, we could have just kept Ben if you wanted to come in dead last.

 

Price was not the only option in 2016. We could have won the division by spending that money elsewhere.

 

(Note: I was okay with the signing, but I'm just saying...)

[notin]

...and HRam's and Price's and...

 

Cherington didn't sign Price

[notin]

If we knew he could do that at the ML level and play plus defense, he'd probably be worth the added cost the tax would bring. That's a big "if."

 

If he could do THAT at the ML level, he's an All Star.

 

Realistically, he's Jarrod Dyson with a slightly better bat. So now we have to see what the market says Dyson is worth...

[moonslav59]

Cherington didn't sign Price

 

I know, that's why I brought up his name. Ben is not the only reason we are over the limit and facing a tax on Castillo, if added to the roster.

[moonslav59]

If he could do THAT at the ML level, he's an All Star.

 

Realistically, he's Jarrod Dyson with a slightly better bat. So now we have to see what the market says Dyson is worth...

 

We can't assume he can repeat one season at AAA at the ML level.

 

He's had much worse years, too.

[harmony]

If he could do THAT at the ML level, he's an All Star.

 

Realistically, he's Jarrod Dyson with a slightly better bat. So now we have to see what the market says Dyson is worth...

For what it's worth, ZiPS projects 2018 WAR of 0.9 in 405 plate appearances for Rusney Castillo and 2.0 in 354 plate appearances for Jarrod Dyson.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-seattle-mariners/

 

Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each outfielder, projects 2018 WAR of a negative 0.7 for Castillo and 2.3 for Dyson.

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd

[moonslav59]

For what it's worth, ZiPS projects 2018 WAR of 0.9 in 405 plate appearances for Rusney Castillo and 2.0 in 354 plate appearances for Jarrod Dyson.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-seattle-mariners/

 

Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each outfielder, projects 2018 WAR of a negative 0.7 for Castillo and 2.3 for Dyson.

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd

 

Sounds about right.

[mvp 78]

It is showing a -17 dWAR for Rusney. People on here were saying he had a good glove? That's a weird projection TBH since he was never a - dWAR guy in MLB.

[notin]

It is showing a -17 dWAR for Rusney. People on here were saying he had a good glove? That's a weird projection TBH since he was never a - dWAR guy in MLB.

 

I would call that a fairly low defensive projection for the only outfielder since 2000 to be credited with 15 Defensive Runs Scored in as few as 614 innings.

 

Jarrod Dyson was once credited with 19 DRS in 758 innings, which is also very impressive. Dyson is a free agent who is 3 years older and initially projected to get a contract equal to the remaining years of Castillo

[harmony]

It is showing a -17 dWAR for Rusney. People on here were saying he had a good glove? That's a weird projection TBH since he was never a - dWAR guy in MLB.

I too am baffled for the negative 17 dWAR for Rusney Castillo.

[S5Dewey]

I too am baffled for the negative 17 dWAR for Rusney Castillo.

 

You don't get to question WAR. WAR is far too complicated for us mortals to understand. If WAR says something, that's the way it IS.

[moonslav59]

I too am baffled for the negative 17 dWAR for Rusney Castillo.

 

Do they look at minor league metrics? (Do they even have minor league advanced metrics?)

[moonslav59]

Two from MLBTR...

 

1) Red Sox chairman Tom Werner acknowledged today that the organization is engaged in active talks with free agent slugger J.D. Martinez, as Tim Britton of the Providence Journal was among those to report on Twitter. While noting that “it takes two” sides to get a deal done, Werner certainly gave plenty of reason to believe that the Boston organization isn’t done adding to its roster. Of course, the interest in Martinez is longstanding and well known; earlier today, it emerged that the Sox have made an offer of $25MM annually over a five-year term.

 

2) Infielder Eduardo Nunez has worked out for the Red Sox, per Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald. We learned earlier today about developing interest in the utilityman, who thrived in a brief, injury-shortened stretch in Boston in 2017. Nunez has long seemed likely to draw wide interest after three straight seasons of average or better production at the plate, but understandably has seen a quiet market to this point while recovering from a knee injury. Now that he has been cleared for activity, Nunez can try to max out his value. Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Nunez would command two years and $14MM.

[moonslav59]

With not much else to talk about, here's a conversation starter. Whether you believe in a short window or a cliff or not, we can probably all agree on the idea that we'll have a much better chance at winning in the next 3 years as well as beyond, if we can somehow get some serious contributions from within our current farm system. That could mean some big contributions from 1 or 2 guys or moderate contributions from several players.

 

I'm going to divide the prospects into groups and then examine each group as a whole. (Rankings by soxprospects.com and age listed)

 

The Power Guys: #2Michael Chavis (age 22), #20 Bryce Brentz (age 29) & #NR Jeremy Barfield (age 29): All hit over 28 HRs last year after never really showing that kind of power before. Brentz & Barfield are 29 and could be late bloomer surprises, but the odds are stacked against them ever making a serious impact at the big league level. Chavis offers the most hope but seems to be a man without a position. He may be too undersized to play 1B and not athletic enough to play 3B or LF. Maybe DH will be his only true opportunity. What are the odss just one of these guys makes a significant impact? I'd say maybe closer to 25% than 40%.

 

The Fringe First Basemen: One could count Chavis in this group, but I'll go with #5 Sam Travis (age 24), #6 Josh Ockimey (age 22) & #13 Bobby Dalbec (age 22- plays 3B). Travis is nearing the do or die part of his career. He lacks the true power one expects at 1B, but he could become a solid bench player with a long shot at developing more power as he ages. Ockimey has more raw talent but has also shown limited power. Dalbec plays 3B, but he's listed as 6-4. If Devers remains our FT 3Bman, Bobby could be a long shot choice for 1B after Moreland's deal ends. Significant impact chances? I'd say closer to 10% than 20%.

 

The Middle Infielders: #12 CJ Chatham (age 23), #18 Tzu-Wei Lin (age 23) & #23 Brett Netzer (age 21) make up this unflattering group. While Lin has shown some flashes of plus defense and quality utility value, I'm not too hopeful anyone makes a meaningful contribution to this team. I'd put the odds at closer to 5% than 10%.

 

The Ready Starters: #22 Hector Velazquez (age 29), #11 Brian Johnson (age 27), #23 Mike Shawaryn (age 23), #10 Jalen Beeks (age 24) all show some promise. I actually like Velazquez as the "sleeper prospect" on the farm. Johnson has teased a few times. I'll go optimistic here and say the odds are closer to 25% than 15% one of these guys becomes a decent 4/5 SP'er.

 

The Far Away Starters: #1 Jay Groome (age 19), #3 Bryan Mata (age 18), #4 Tanner Houck (age 21), #9 Alex Scherff (age 19), #14 Darwinzon Hernandez (age 21), #15 Roniel Raudes (age 20) make up the hardest group to project but perhaps the highest ceiling group of all. Mata and Hernandez might surprise, but Groome and Houck seem to get most of the accolades. Scherff is young while Raudes seemed to take a step backwards last year. There's a lot of players in this group- some with rather high ceilings. I'm going to say the chances are closer to 85% than 70% one of these guys becomes at least a 3/4 SP'er.

 

The Long Shots: #16 Jake Thompson (age 23), #19 Travis Lakins & #26 Chandler Shepherd (age 25) are not likely to contribute. I'd say 5% odds are as high as I'd go.

 

The Groups of their Own: #21 Austin Maddox RP (age 26), #7 Cole Brannen OF (age 19),#17 Danny Diaz 3B (age 17), #25 Ben Taylor (age 25) & #27 Aneury Tavarez don't really fit in any of the previous groups. I like Maddox and think he will be in the pen for a few years to come. Not counting Austin, I'll give the rest odds closer to 20% than 10% with Brannen showing the most promise.

 

Put these odds all together, and one could argue we show a lot of promise, but I don't see the odds of producing one or more blue chippers as being even moderately possible. We could end up with a mess of role players not really good enough to lead us to a ring, but filling out the 40 man roster nicely.

 

The 2020 40 man roster:

 

SP: Price, _____, ______, ERod, Wright/Velazquez

Mata, Houck, Beeks, Shawaryn, Johnson, Thompson(?)

RP:Smith, _____, Barnes, Workman, Maddox, Hernandez, Shepherd

C: Vazquez, Leon, Swihart

1B: ______, Travis, Ockimey

2B: Pedey, Hernandez

3B: Devers, Chavis or Dalbec

SS: ______, Lin or Chatham

LF: Beni, Brentz, Brannen or Tavarez

CF: JBJ

RF: Betts

DH: (JDMartinez?)

[Spudboy]

Two from MLBTR...

 

1) Red Sox chairman Tom Werner acknowledged today that the organization is engaged in active talks with free agent slugger J.D. Martinez, as Tim Britton of the Providence Journal was among those to report on Twitter. While noting that “it takes two” sides to get a deal done, Werner certainly gave plenty of reason to believe that the Boston organization isn’t done adding to its roster. Of course, the interest in Martinez is longstanding and well known; earlier today, it emerged that the Sox have made an offer of $25MM annually over a five-year term.

 

2) Infielder Eduardo Nunez has worked out for the Red Sox, per Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald. We learned earlier today about developing interest in the utilityman, who thrived in a brief, injury-shortened stretch in Boston in 2017. Nunez has long seemed likely to draw wide interest after three straight seasons of average or better production at the plate, but understandably has seen a quiet market to this point while recovering from a knee injury. Now that he has been cleared for activity, Nunez can try to max out his value. Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Nunez would command two years and $14MM.

 

Moon is that two years AAV 7 mil or two years AAV 14 mil?

[moonslav59]

Moon is that two years AAV 7 mil or two years AAV 14 mil?

 

That sounds about right. We might add a thrid year option at $6M with a $1M buyout, thereby reducing the luxury tax cost to $5M ($15M/3 assuming we turn down the option).

[Bellhorn04]

Moon is that two years AAV 7 mil or two years AAV 14 mil?

 

2 years AAV 7 mil.

[Spudboy]

2 years AAV 7 mil.

 

If this is the case and his knee is "projected to remain healthy" I say he is worth the gamble.

 

But I would also be down with sticking with the gang of four the Sox have to play back-up IF.

 

Like his bat, though.

[moonslav59]

Nunez may be a partial fall back, in case we do not land JD.

 

We may go with Nunez & Darvish at close to the same AVV as JD.

[Larry Cook]

Nunez may be a partial fall back, in case we do not land JD.

 

We may go with Nunez & Darvish at close to the same AVV as JD.

 

I would prefer Nunez to JD. For the brief time that Nunez was here, I thought he brought a sense of urgency that our zombies were lacking all year.

 

If he is healthy, I would sign him and pass on JD. Please we have a position available for nunez, but not one JD.

[notin]

Nunez may be a partial fall back, in case we do not land JD.

 

We may go with Nunez & Darvish at close to the same AVV as JD.

 

I like Darvish but how far should anyone go for a 31yo pitcher whose already had two arm surgeries?

[notin]

You don't get to question clutch. Clutch is far too complicated for us mortals to understand. If clutch says something, that's the way it IS.

 

 

 

Edited it for you.

 

Now if I made this my signature, would it upset you again?