A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[notin]

Not worth it for a 4th OF. The only way he gets called up is if one of the current OFers has a career ending injury.

 

He won't get called up but he should. Bryce Brentz is a waste of a 40-man roster spot...

[moonslav59]

Castillo is light years better than Brentz and Barfield.

 

He is costly, but his defense is worth it. Or appears to be in his small sample size.

 

In 723 career innings in the outfield, Castillo has 18 DRS. That number would have tied for fourth in MLB last year with Jason Heyward and Yasiel Puig. Only Betts, Buxton and Brett Gardner had more.

 

And all of them played well over 723 innings. In fact, all were over 1,000..

 

I'm not sure his defense is that good. If it was, I doubt he'd be in this situation, but let's assume it is very good. By adding him to the 40 man roster, his actual added cost to Henry would only be the tax. 20% on $11M is a pretty good deal for a good 4th OF'er. If we go over the second level, it's 32%. That's not bad either.

 

The issue arises, if we go over the luxury tax 2 or 3 years in a row. The tax goes up and up, and if Castillo struggles, the cost becomes steep.

[moonslav59]

He won't get called up but he should. Bryce Brentz is a waste of a 40-man roster spot...

 

I have little faith in Brentz, but he should get a chance.

[Kimmi]

If the Sox had put their number at $8.5M, they'd almost surely win the arb ruling.

 

I kinda hope Mookie wins, so he won't be as upset at the Sox.

 

I'm wondering if Mookie winning his arbitration would make him less upset or more upset.

 

If the arbiters agree with Mookie, then that reinforces his opinion that the Sox offered too little. If, OTOH, the arbiters agree with the Red Sox, then perhaps Mookie will think that the Sox offer was pretty much in line with what it should have been.

 

Either way, the best outcome would be for the 2 sides to come to terms before going to hearing.

[Kimmi]

It's Rusney Time...

 

IMO, the Red Sox handled the Rusney situation poorly back in the beginning. I don't think he got a fair shot with the major league team.

[Kimmi]

"show me the money"...if Sox gives him the most money and most years when he becomes a FA, Betts will sign with Sox.

 

Bottom line.

 

To me it's rather disheartening.

[moonslav59]

I'm wondering if Mookie winning his arbitration would make him less upset or more upset.

 

If the arbiters agree with Mookie, then that reinforces his opinion that the Sox offered too little. If, OTOH, the arbiters agree with the Red Sox, then perhaps Mookie will think that the Sox offer was pretty much in line with what it should have been.

 

Either way, the best outcome would be for the 2 sides to come to terms before going to hearing.

 

Agreed. Best outcome? I'd love to see a Longorian extension.

[Kimmi]

I was thinking more of his frame of mind for signing an extension.

 

OTOH, if Mookie is ticked at the Red Sox and won't sign an extension because of that, we'll likely have an extremely motivated player for the next 2 years.

[Kimmi]

I have little faith in Brentz, but he should get a chance.

 

I agree. He deserves a chance.

[Kimmi]

Agreed. Best outcome? I'd love to see a Longorian extension.

 

That's not happening, but wouldn't it be nice?

[mvp 78]

He won't get called up but he should. Bryce Brentz is a waste of a 40-man roster spot...

 

We don't actually know that until he is given a chance to fail.

[mvp 78]

IMO, the Red Sox handled the Rusney situation poorly back in the beginning. I don't think he got a fair shot with the major league team.

 

IDK. Rusney played 80 games in 2015 and wound up with a negative BSR and OWAR. He doesn't hit for power and doesn't walk. Even if his defense is legit, it's probably not worth the contract.

 

Also, his best playing days are behind him since he's turning 31 this year.

[mvp 78]

Agreed. Best outcome? I'd love to see a Longorian extension.

 

Not a chance.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed. Best outcome? I'd love to see a Longorian extension.

 

We'll never see another like that one.

[notin]

I'm not sure his defense is that good. If it was, I doubt he'd be in this situation, but let's assume it is very good. By adding him to the 40 man roster, his actual added cost to Henry would only be the tax. 20% on $11M is a pretty good deal for a good 4th OF'er. If we go over the second level, it's 32%. That's not bad either.

 

The issue arises, if we go over the luxury tax 2 or 3 years in a row. The tax goes up and up, and if Castillo struggles, the cost becomes steep.

 

And if his defense is that good, he is silly to not add.

 

Castillo has averaged 1 DRS for every 44innings and cost $36mill for 3 years. Jarrod Dyson and his career OPS of .677 has averaged 1DRS for every 58.5 innings and was projected to earn $36mill over 3 years, although that does look less likely right now.

 

Right now Castillo is a costly AAA player with potentially game-changing defensive skills. But in the majors, he might also become solid trade bait. Or make Bradley solid trade bait. In fact, if I was a GM who needed a CF, I'd be trying to fleece Boston out of this guy with a bad contract I already had...

[Bellhorn04]

IDK. Rusney played 80 games in 2015 and wound up with a negative BSR and OWAR. He doesn't hit for power and doesn't walk. Even if his defense is legit, it's probably not worth the contract.

 

Also, his best playing days are behind him since he's turning 31 this year.

 

It doesn't work like that with every single player of course.

[Kimmi]

IDK. Rusney played 80 games in 2015 and wound up with a negative BSR and OWAR. He doesn't hit for power and doesn't walk. Even if his defense is legit, it's probably not worth the contract.

 

Also, his best playing days are behind him since he's turning 31 this year.

 

It's possible that he still wouldn't be worth the contract, but it's also possible that he could have been a solid contributor. Maybe the Sox could have then used him as a trade piece. I'm not saying that he would have been an all star if the Sox gave him the chance, I just don't think they handled the situation very well.

[mvp 78]

It doesn't work like that with every single player of course.

 

Sure, but there are enough negatives surrounding Castillo that it would take an extraordinary circumstance for him to play for BOS this year.

[mvp 78]

It's possible that he still wouldn't be worth the contract, but it's also possible that he could have been a solid contributor. Maybe the Sox could have then used him as a trade piece. I'm not saying that he would have been an all star if the Sox gave him the chance, I just don't think they handled the situation very well.

 

Hard to see a guy as a trade piece with that huge contract. I'm sure they'd hand him over to anyone else that really wanted to him at a deep discount at this point.

[moonslav59]

It doesn't work like that with every single player of course.

 

Yes, for many players, ages 31-34 or so are their best years.

[moonslav59]

IDK. Rusney played 80 games in 2015 and wound up with a negative BSR and OWAR. He doesn't hit for power and doesn't walk. Even if his defense is legit, it's probably not worth the contract.

 

Also, his best playing days are behind him since he's turning 31 this year.

 

His "added cost" would just be 20% or 32% (if we go over the second level tax line) for 2018. That's just about $2.5 to $3.5M. That's much less than we paid Young for 2 years.

 

The problem arises for 2019 and 2020, if we reach higher tax rates due to consecutive years over the luxury tax limit, but even then, if he's doing well, he might be worth it.

[mvp 78]

His "added cost" would just be 20% or 32% (if we go over the second level tax line) for 2018. That's just about $2.5 to $3.5M. That's much less than we paid Young for 2 years.

 

The problem arises for 2019 and 2020, if we reach higher tax rates due to consecutive years over the luxury tax limit, but even then, if he's doing well, he might be worth it.

 

If he comes up, his contract will go towards the luxury tax for the next 4 years. If he flames out, it would be a disaster for tax implications.

[moonslav59]

If he comes up, his contract will go towards the luxury tax for the next 4 years. If he flames out, it would be a disaster for tax implications.

 

Yes, I mentioned the problem arises in future years as the tax rate is liable to go way up. Even if Castillo does well as a 4th OF'er, his cost may be too high year 3 or 4. He'd pretty much have to be starting to earn the "added cost", if our tax rate is 50% plus the second penalty rate costs.

 

If he does not do well, the cost could really hurt. That is why I do not think he ever gets called up to the 40 man roster.

[notin]

If he comes up, his contract will go towards the luxury tax for the next 4 years. If he flames out, it would be a disaster for tax implications.

 

And if he doesn't flame out, he becomes a valuable asset.

[notin]

If he comes up, his contract will go towards the luxury tax for the next 4 years. If he flames out, it would be a disaster for tax implications.

 

And if he doesn't flame out, he becomes a valuable asset.

[mvp 78]

And if he doesn't flame out, he becomes a valuable asset.

 

It what risk tho? At some point, the risk of it not working out is greater than "what if we had this punch and judy bat with bad baserunning skills who has a big contract but can play a little D?"

[mvp 78]

Yes, I mentioned the problem arises in future years as the tax rate is liable to go way up. Even if Castillo does well as a 4th OF'er, his cost may be too high year 3 or 4. He'd pretty much have to be starting to earn the "added cost", if our tax rate is 50% plus the second penalty rate costs.

 

If he does not do well, the cost could really hurt. That is why I do not think he ever gets called up to the 40 man roster.

 

He would have to hit .400 in AAA and Mookie would have to get in a car crash. That's the only way he gets called up.

[Bellhorn04]

It what risk tho? At some point, the risk of it not working out is greater than "what if we had this punch and judy bat with bad baserunning skills who has a big contract but can play a little D?"

 

He ended with a 314/350/507 line for the PawSox last year - 15 HR, 22 2B and 14 SB in 87 games - very solid numbers, really.

[moonslav59]

And if he doesn't flame out, he becomes a valuable asset.

 

Maybe not enough value to justify the added cost.

[moonslav59]

He ended with a 314/350/507 line for the PawSox last year - 15 HR, 22 2B and 14 SB in 87 games - very solid numbers, really.

 

If we knew he could do that at the ML level and play plus defense, he'd probably be worth the added cost the tax would bring. That's a big "if."