A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[mvp 78]

My only point was "don't get too greedy, best offer on the table may get pulled. then what?"

 

I don't see a correlation to someone not wanting the QO and having an offer pulled. I don't remember Drew having an offer pulled???

[mvp 78]

Easier said than done. Where's the money coming from?

 

And sure, we could develop our own starting pitching. In time for 2020 or 2021?

 

From all of us dumbasses that watch 162 games and buy tickets and buy swag etc.

[mvp 78]

I was also not impressed by the article. As I said, I don't think Collins defended his opinion well at all.

 

You can make the case that a cliff doesn't exist, but that article definitely didn't do it for me.

[mvp 78]

I'd rather have Beltre, too and said so.

 

BTW, we have a very good track record with comp picks since 2005-- maybe even better than top 15 picks. Maybe it's luck: maybe we should expect it.

 

2005:

Ellsbury & Lowrie for OCab

Bowden & Hansen (part of Manny-Jay Bay trade) for D Lowe

Buchholz & Egan for Pedro

 

2006:

Daniel Bard & Kris Johnson for Damon

Caleb Clay & Aaron Bates for Mueller

 

2007:

Nick Hagadone (part of Masterson-VMart trade) for Alex Gonzalez

Ryan Dent for Foulke

 

2008:

Bryan Price for Gagne

Stephen Fife for H Morris

 

2010:

K Vitek & A Ranaudo (traded for R Ross)for Billy Wagner

B Brentz & B Workman for Jason Bay

 

2011:

Matt Barnes & Henry Owens for VMart

Blake Swihart and JBJ for Beltre

 

2012:

Brian Jonson and Pat Light (traded for Abad) for Paplebon

 

2014:

Michael Kopech (part of Cris Sale trade) for Ellsbury

 

I wish I won the lottery as often as this!

 

 

Stephen Fife is winning the lottery?

[mvp 78]

Pedroia Sentimental contract for a Sox hero, but unlikely to have value relative to the money spent

 

He was underpaid (by market value) on that contract.

 

Nope. He was the highest paid 2b at the time the ink was dried.

[moonslav59]

Nope. He was the highest paid 2b at the time the ink was dried.

 

Yes, and he was the best 2Bman.

[moonslav59]

Stephen Fife is winning the lottery?

 

Maybe a scratch ticket.

[mvp 78]

Yes, and he was the best 2Bman.

 

So how was the offer below market if it was he was the best and highest paid?

[Bellhorn04]

So how was the offer below market if it was he was the best and highest paid?

 

Below market based on his fWAR and other measures, no? You can't necessarily get a good comp just from others at the same position.

[mvp 78]

Below market based on his fWAR and other measures, no? You can't necessarily get a good comp just from others at the same position.

 

Well, someone needs to actually make that case for me to believe it.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, someone needs to actually make that case for me to believe it.

 

What data exactly are you looking for?

[mvp 78]

What data exactly are you looking for?

 

Anything that shows that Pedroia was a below market deal at the time of signing. I'll hang up and wait for Moon's 3,000 word response.

[notin]

Nope. He was the highest paid 2b at the time the ink was dried.

 

An honor he held for less than 5 months...

[moonslav59]

Anything that shows that Pedroia was a below market deal at the time of signing. I'll hang up and wait for Moon's 3,000 word response.

 

8 words:

 

Did I say it was "at the time"?

[harmony]

Anything that shows that Pedroia was a below market deal at the time of signing. I'll hang up and wait for Moon's 3,000 word response.

 

On April 10, 2012, second baseman Ian Kinsler signed a five-year, $75 million extension with the Detroit Tigers (with a club option for a sixth year).

 

On April 12, 2012, second baseman Brandon Phillips signed a six-year, $72.5 million extension with the Cincinnati Reds.

 

On February 2, 2013, second baseman Aaron Hill signed a three-year, $35 million extension with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

 

On August 8, 2013, second baseman Chase Utley signed a two-year, $27 million extension with the Philadelphia Phillies (with vesting options for three more years at $15 million annually).

 

On December 12, 2013, second baseman Robinson Cano signed a 10-year, $240 million contract with the Seattle Mariners.

 

On July 24, 2013, second baseman Dustin Pedroia signed an eight-year, $110 million extension with the Boston Red Sox.

 

Here are the cumulative fWAR totals for second baseman 2011-13:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[Bellhorn04]

On April 10, 2012, second baseman Ian Kinsler signed a five-year, $75 million extension with the Detroit Tigers (with a club option for a sixth year).

 

On April 12, 2012, second baseman Brandon Phillips signed a six-year, $72.5 million extension with the Cincinnati Reds.

 

On February 2, 2013, second baseman Aaron Hill signed a three-year, $35 million extension with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

 

On August 8, 2013, second baseman Chase Utley signed a two-year, $27 million extension with the Philadelphia Phillies (with vesting options for three more years at $15 million annually).

 

On December 12, 2013, second baseman Robinson Cano signed a 10-year, $240 million contract with the Seattle Mariners.

 

On July 24, 2013, second baseman Dustin Pedroia signed an eight-year, $110 million extension with the Boston Red Sox.

 

Here are the cumulative fWAR totals for second baseman 2011-13:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Great stuff, harmony, thanks. If this isn't good enough for mvp I don't know what would be.

 

One little footnote which you are probably aware of is that prior to signing this extension which runs 2014-2021, Pedroia was already under contract tor 2014 and the team held an option on him for 2015.

[moonslav59]

Great stuff, harmony, thanks. If this isn't good enough for mvp I don't know what would be.

 

One little footnote which you are probably aware of is that prior to signing this extension which runs 2014-2021, Pedroia was already under contract tor 2014 and the team held an option on him for 2015.

 

Yes, he was already set to earn $10M in 2014 with an $11M option for 2015 ($500K buyout). He then signed a $13.75M x 8 year contract.

 

Here are the yearly salaries for the 2Bmen harmony listed:

 

$24M x 10 Robinson Cano

 

$15M x 5 Ian Kinsler

 

$13.75M x 8 Pedroia

 

$13.5M x 2 Chase Utley

 

$12.1M x 6 Brandon Phillips

 

$11.7M x 3 Aaron Hill

 

2B WAR from 2014-2017

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Despite the injuries, Pedey still placed 6th at $14.5.

 

While I agree with those that think the fangraphs value numbers are inflated, here they are:

 

2007: $20.8M

2008: $39.2M

2009: $29.6M

2010: $19.2M

2011: $59.6M

2012: $29.1M

2013: $38.3M (Pre contract)

2014: $31.3M (Post contract)

2015: $20.7M

2016: $42.8M

2017: $15.4M

 

He apparently earned more than his average salary every year after signing but still has the back 4 years to go. However, he's already earned more than $110M already by this measure... just over the full contract amount in just 4 years!

 

(Noe: I do not agree he has earned $110M by his play over the last 4 years.)

 

 

 

 

[Larry Cook]

Yes, he was already set to earn $10M in 2014 with an $11M option for 2015 ($500K buyout). He then signed a $13.75M x 8 year contract.

 

Here are the yearly salaries for the 2Bmen harmony listed:

 

$24M x 10 Robinson Cano

 

$15M x 5 Ian Kinsler

 

$13.75M x 8 Pedroia

 

$13.5M x 2 Chase Utley

 

$12.1M x 6 Brandon Phillips

 

$11.7M x 3 Aaron Hill

 

2B WAR from 2014-2017

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Despite the injuries, Pedey still placed 6th at $14.5.

 

While I agree with those that think the fangraphs value numbers are inflated, here they are:

 

2007: $20.8M

2008: $39.2M

2009: $29.6M

2010: $19.2M

2011: $59.6M

2012: $29.1M

2013: $38.3M (Pre contract)

2014: $31.3M (Post contract)

2015: $20.7M

2016: $42.8M

2017: $15.4M

 

He apparently earned more than his average salary every year after signing but still has the back 4 years to go. However, he's already earned more than $110M already by this measure... just over the full contract amount in just 4 years!

 

(Noe: I do not agree he has earned $110M by his play over the last 4 years.)

 

 

 

 

 

100 games played by pedroia in 2018. Are you taking the over or under?

[Bellhorn04]

I do not agree he has earned $110M by his play over the last 4 years.)

 

Those FanGraph dollar figures aren't actually supposed to represent an earned value. But they do reflect a real number - the historic average cost per fWAR of all actual free agents.

[Bellhorn04]

100 games played by pedroia in 2018. Are you taking the over or under?

 

Everyone would take the under on that one.

[moonslav59]

100 games played by pedroia in 2018. Are you taking the over or under?

 

I'll take under 81.

[mvp 78]

Cano’s contract came after Pedroia’s so we can ignore it.

 

The best comp is Kinsler who got a higher AAV, but 3 less years. I’m not sure that really shows it’s below market. Those 8 full guaranteed years are big imo.

 

To me, his contract seems fair, but not below market.

 

Thanks for doing the math.

[mvp 78]

I'll take under 81.

 

Hard to say considering the injury. Big question mark.

[notin]

Cano’s contract came after Pedroia’s so we can ignore it.

 

The best comp is Kinsler who got a higher AAV, but 3 less years. I’m not sure that really shows it’s below market. Those 8 full guaranteed years are big imo.

 

To me, his contract seems fair, but not below market.

 

Thanks for doing the math.

 

Cano's contract came 5 months after. And his AAV was nearly double and for more years. Are you saying the market changed that much in five months?

[harmony]

Cano's contract came 5 months after. And his AAV was nearly double and for more years. Are you saying the market changed that much in five months?

No one would describe as "below-market" the contract given Robinson Cano (who nonetheless has posted 16.4 fWAR, valued at $129.5 million in the first four seasons of his 10-year, $240 million contract with Seattle).

[mvp 78]

Cano's contract came 5 months after. And his AAV was nearly double and for more years. Are you saying the market changed that much in five months?

He and Pedroia aren’t comparable. Also, mariners had to pay a premium to get Cano out of NYC.

Edited January 11, 2018 by mvp 78

[mvp 78]

Robinson Cano was a 31-year-old with nearly nine years of MLB service when he signed the 10-year, $240 million contract with the Mariners.

 

I was wrong about Cano’s age and edited my post to reflect that.

[notin]

He and Pedroia aren’t comparable. Also, mariners had to pay a premium to get Cano out of NYC.

 

In the three seasons before signing with Seattle, Cano was worth 18.5 fWAR. In the same 3 seasons, Pedroia was worth 17.5 fWAR. How are they not comparable?

[mvp 78]

In the three seasons before signing with Seattle, Cano was worth 18.5 fWAR. In the same 3 seasons, Pedroia was worth 17.5 fWAR. How are they not comparable?

 

FWAR isn’t the end all be all. Cano’s offense is more financially valuable than Pedroia’s much better defense.

[mvp 78]

And all I’ve said is that when the ink dried on Pedey’s contract, it was not under market. Cano’s contract came later.