A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

Off topic, but the Red Sox and my Seattle Mariners are well-represented on this Baseball Prospectus list of Top 50 "busted" prospects:

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/36851/best-bp-2017-top-50-busted-prospects/

 

4 of the top 5 are Yanks!

 

Happy New Year!

[Bellhorn04]

For all we know the Red Sox opening offer to J.D. Martinez could have been considered "an absolute joke." Remember the reported offer to Jon Lester.

 

It's the nature of negotiations for one side to start high and the other side low.

 

The reported offer to Jon Lester was an absolute joke.

 

But whether it's a house for sale or a ballplayer, not all negotiations involve ridiculous asking prices or lowball offers. There are a wide range of scenarios. Sometimes the prospective buyer puts a big offer on the table because they really want that property and they want it now. Sometimes they 'overpay'.

[Kimmi]

He has that working against him.

 

What he has working for him is, for some reason, Dombrowski seems to like him. He's kept him through a few trading opportunities. He facilitated an ill-conceived switch to LF to keep his bat in the majors. DD might have a bit of a man-crush on Swihart.

 

And as Swihart is out of options, it looks like (although I might be misinterpreting things here) he and fellow option-less teammates Marrero and Brentz appear to have some sort of inside track to the roster. At least we know DD hasn't done much to supplant them so far.

 

Although soxprospects.com apparently has less faith in Swihart and Brentz than I do. (I did not know it was possible to have less faith in Brentz than I do..)

 

IMO, teams should keep as much flexibility as possible. Sometimes that means putting a guy on the big league roster mainly because he is out of options until the team can better gauge exactly what they have in that player.

 

For that reason, I hope that Swihart, Brentz, and Marrero do have an inside track. I don't think that any of them will necessarily outperform some of our other options, but the possibility exists that they might.

 

All that said, I'm pretty sure that Holt will be on the 25 man roster, despite having an option remaining.

[Bellhorn04]

I certainly get that it can be part of a successful negotiation to start with a high asking price. But I still maintain that the 210 million ask by Boras for JD was just silly talk. No one is going anywhere near that. JD is a big bat but that's all he is. Last year Encarnacion had to settle for 60 million guaranteed. He was about 3 years older than JD is now, but that's about the only significant difference. Boras is lucky that the Red Sox are one of the teams that need a big bat.

[Kimmi]

I certainly get that it can be part of a successful negotiation to start with a high asking price. But I still maintain that the 210 million ask by Boras for JD was just silly talk. No one is going anywhere near that. JD is a big bat but that's all he is. Last year Encarnacion had to settle for 60 million guaranteed. He was about 3 years older than JD is now, but that's about the only significant difference. Boras is lucky that the Red Sox are one of the teams that need a big bat.

 

I am wondering how much, if any, of the high asking price and the seeming unwillingness to budge from a that high price has to do with the fact that the Red Sox are the biggest suitor for JD. Dombrowski has a reputation for 'getting his guy', even if it means overpaying to do so. I'm guessing that Boras thinks that Dombrowski will eventually cave, not to the 210 million level, but certainly still to a level where he's overpaying.

[Bellhorn04]

Unsigned Boras clients on Jan 1/18:

 

J D Martinez

Eric Hosmer

Jake Arrieta

Mike Moustakas

 

Should be quite a month for Scotty boy...

[OH FOY]

Paying big bucks for Hanley to DH, see if surgery worked out, and go from there. Forget JD.

[Spudboy]

Paying big bucks for Hanley to DH, see if surgery worked out, and go from there. Forget JD.

 

That may happen.

[notin]

IMO, teams should keep as much flexibility as possible. Sometimes that means putting a guy on the big league roster mainly because he is out of options until the team can better gauge exactly what they have in that player.

 

For that reason, I hope that Swihart, Brentz, and Marrero do have an inside track. I don't think that any of them will necessarily outperform some of our other options, but the possibility exists that they might.

 

All that said, I'm pretty sure that Holt will be on the 25 man roster, despite having an option remaining.

 

I'm more on board with Swihart and Marrero than I am with Brentz.

 

As for Holt, the Sox only have 4 bench spots amd a 2B position undetermined. The following players are candidates: Marco Hernandez (the reported frontrunner at 2B), Holt, Leon, Brentz, Marrero and Swihart. Only Holt and Hernandez have options left.

 

I could also certainly see a situation where Holt starts st 2B and Hernandez goes to Pawtucket. But Holt's concussion last year might lead to more precaution...

[a700hitter]

I'm more on board with Swihart and Marrero than I am with Brentz.

 

As for Holt, the Sox only have 4 bench spots amd a 2B position undetermined. The following players are candidates: Marco Hernandez (the reported frontrunner at 2B), Holt, Leon, Brentz, Marrero and Swihart. Only Holt and Hernandez have options left.

 

I could also certainly see a situation where Holt starts st 2B and Hernandez goes to Pawtucket. But Holt's concussion last year might lead to more precaution...

Just in case you missed my prior post where I asked these questions about Swihart:

 

Would Swihart have to be DFA'd if he doesn't make the team out of Spring Training? Would they still have to DFA him if they don't invite him to Spring Training?

[harmony]

The reported offer to Jon Lester was an absolute joke.

 

But whether it's a house for sale or a ballplayer, not all negotiations involve ridiculous asking prices or lowball offers. There are a wide range of scenarios. Sometimes the prospective buyer puts a big offer on the table because they really want that property and they want it now. Sometimes they 'overpay'.

David Price.

[Bellhorn04]

David Price.

 

And Carl Crawford. For starters.

[notin]

And Carl Crawford. For starters.

 

And Robinson Cano

[notin]

Just in case you missed my prior post where I asked these questions about Swihart:

 

Would Swihart have to be DFA'd if he doesn't make the team out of Spring Training? Would they still have to DFA him if they don't invite him to Spring Training?

 

I did miss that. Ooops. Sorry.

 

Swihart would have to be removed from the 40-man and clear waivers to be sent to the minors. Certainly this is an option as well. But despite his track record and health revord recently, I'm not so sure he'd clear waivers...

[Spudboy]

I did miss that. Ooops. Sorry.

 

Swihart would have to be removed from the 40-man and clear waivers to be sent to the minors. Certainly this is an option as well. But despite his track record and health revord recently, I'm not so sure he'd clear waivers...

 

There is no way Swi would go unclaimed.

 

Not long ago he was a highly regarded prospect. I very much doubt that teams have forgotten this.

[harmony]

And Robinson Cano

Good example.

 

Robinson Cano has posted 16.4 fWAR, valued at $129.5 million, in the first four years of his 10-year, $240 million contract with Seattle. More importantly, Cano has not led the Mariners to their first postseason berth since 2001.

 

Seattle fans can only hope that Cano ages as well as David Ortiz did.

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/like-a-big-brother-robinson-cano-sad-to-see-david-ortiz-retire/

[a700hitter]

I did miss that. Ooops. Sorry.

 

Swihart would have to be removed from the 40-man and clear waivers to be sent to the minors. Certainly this is an option as well. But despite his track record and health revord recently, I'm not so sure he'd clear waivers...

Would he have to be optioned even if he is not invited to Spring Training and just stays on a minor league roster and does his spring training with the AAA team?

[notin]

Would he have to be optioned even if he is not invited to Spring Training and just stays on a minor league roster and does his spring training with the AAA team?

 

I don't think an invitation to ST is relevant. He can't be on the 40-man roster and can't be on a minor league roster without clearing waivers, regardless of ST invites.

 

I'm not sure whether or not he can go through ST with the AAA team. But even if he can, ST is going to end and he can only play in Boston without being exposed to the waiver process. And he will get claimed. Some GM somewhere will see him out there and think "Free backup catcher with actual potential. Thank you."

[a700hitter]

I don't think an invitation to ST is relevant. He can't be on the 40-man roster and can't be on a minor league roster without clearing waivers, regardless of ST invites.

 

I'm not sure whether or not he can go through ST with the AAA team. But even if he can, ST is going to end and he can only play in Boston without being exposed to the waiver process. And he will get claimed. Some GM somewhere will see him out there and think "Free backup catcher with actual potential. Thank you."

Is this a Rule V situation, in which he would have to be retained on another team's MLB roster?

[notin]

Is this a Rule V situation, in which he would have to be retained on another team's MLB roster?

 

No. Rule 5 apples to players not on the 40-man roster. Options apply to players who are. It would be closer to a minor league free agent situation.

[moonslav59]

IMO, teams should keep as much flexibility as possible. Sometimes that means putting a guy on the big league roster mainly because he is out of options until the team can better gauge exactly what they have in that player.

 

For that reason, I hope that Swihart, Brentz, and Marrero do have an inside track. I don't think that any of them will necessarily outperform some of our other options, but the possibility exists that they might.

 

All that said, I'm pretty sure that Holt will be on the 25 man roster, despite having an option remaining.

 

I agree that Holt likely makes the opening day 25 man roster, but with a new manager, maybe he doesn't.

 

I'm not so sure Marrero is so good that we can't afford to DFA him, but then again, is Holt that good that we can't afford to keep infield depth by starting him in AAA and keeping Marrero around?

 

Same can be said about Swihart. His ability to catch makes him a worthy choice as a 25 man roster player. We can afford to PH for Vaz or Leon in the middle innings, if needed.

 

If Swihart can play LF, maybe he knocks Brentz off the roster. If he can play 1B, maybe trading HRam becomes an option.

 

Some interesting choices, but nothing earth-shattering, if we have to let Brentz, Marrero or Swihart go., of if we keep Holt in AAA a little while.

 

There's also the phantom DL in play.

 

 

[notin]

I think there's a good chance Holt handles the majority of 2b until Pedroia returns, assuming he's recovered. There was really no other reason to offer him arbitration, unless Dombrowski figured it might be too costly to re-sign a player coming off a career worst season and a concussion. ..

[moonslav59]

No. Rule 5 apples to players not on the 40-man roster. Options apply to players who are. It would be closer to a minor league free agent situation.

 

But, if we do DFA Brentz, Swihart or Marrero (all out of options), doesn't the team who claims him have to put him on the 25 man roster or subject him to another team claiming him, if they don't?

 

The option situation should not change due to a change of teams.

 

[a700hitter]

No. Rule 5 apples to players not on the 40-man roster. Options apply to players who are. It would be closer to a minor league free agent situation.

With regard to options, I thought that once you were on the minors that the team only had to use an option if they brought you up to the majors and wanted to send you back down. That’s why o am confused why we would have to use an option on Swihart if we don’t bring him to Major League camp this spring training. How does that work?

[Kimmi]

Paying big bucks for Hanley to DH, see if surgery worked out, and go from there. Forget JD.

 

I would be fine with this, especially if JD continues to ask for a monstrous contract.

[moonslav59]

I think there's a good chance Holt handles the majority of 2b until Pedroia returns, assuming he's recovered. There was really no other reason to offer him arbitration, unless Dombrowski figured it might be too costly to re-sign a player coming off a career worst season and a concussion. ..

 

I think DD kept Holt in order to keep 2B depth and not have to sign someone like Nunez. I'm not sure Holt has the inside track to the opening day 2B job. Didn't Marco beat out Holt, Marrero and others to the 3B job last year? Then, he got hurt.

 

I think Marco has a slight advantage going into ST'ing, but it might come down to the situation where the loser out of these two, starts in AAA, so we can keep Marrero or Swihart as further depth.

 

[Kimmi]

I'm more on board with Swihart and Marrero than I am with Brentz.

 

As for Holt, the Sox only have 4 bench spots amd a 2B position undetermined. The following players are candidates: Marco Hernandez (the reported frontrunner at 2B), Holt, Leon, Brentz, Marrero and Swihart. Only Holt and Hernandez have options left.

 

I could also certainly see a situation where Holt starts st 2B and Hernandez goes to Pawtucket. But Holt's concussion last year might lead to more precaution...

 

It's a possibility that Holt starts in AAA, but I get the feeling that the powers that be are really high on Holt. Fair point about his concussion though.

[moonslav59]

With regard to options, I thought that once you were on the minors that the team only had to use an option if they brought you up to the majors and wanted to send you back down. That’s why o am confused why we would have to use an option on Swihart if we don’t bring him to Major League camp this spring training. How does that work?

 

If you are out of options, you cannot start the year in the minors. There is no 25 man roster until opening day. All players not making the 25 man roster are essentially, sent to the minors. Those without options can be claimed by other teams.

[Kimmi]

I did miss that. Ooops. Sorry.

 

Swihart would have to be removed from the 40-man and clear waivers to be sent to the minors. Certainly this is an option as well. But despite his track record and health revord recently, I'm not so sure he'd clear waivers...

 

Swihart would almost definitely be claimed by somebody. He's not clearing waivers.

[notin]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/print.jsp?ymd=20110329&content_id=17188016

 

This explains it better than I ever could...