A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

The one thing that might drop free agent prices this year is the anticipation of next year's class and the number of normally big spenders trying to get under the luxury tax limit this year...

 

...and, how many teams really need a 1Bman?

 

Since the Sox could sign a 3Bman and move Devers to 1B or DH, we have even more players to choose from.

 

1Bmen Free Agents

Yonder Alonso

Lucas Duda

Eric Hosmer

John Jaso

Adam Lind *

Mitch Moreland

Logan Morrison

Mike Napoli

Mark Reynolds

Carlos Santana

 

[oldtimer]

...and, how many teams really need a 1Bman?

 

Since the Sox could sign a 3Bman and move Devers to 1B or DH, we have even more players to choose from.

 

1Bmen Free Agents

Yonder Alonso

Lucas Duda

Eric Hosmer

John Jaso

Adam Lind *

Mitch Moreland

Logan Morrison

Mike Napoli

Mark Reynolds

Carlos Santana

 

 

Based on the age of those players, the relative performance (both offensive and defensive) and the cost and length of contracts, I would favor Carlos Santana. The trouble is getting him.

[harmony]

...and, how many teams really need a 1Bman?

 

Since the Sox could sign a 3Bman and move Devers to 1B or DH, we have even more players to choose from.

 

1Bmen Free Agents

Yonder Alonso

Lucas Duda

Eric Hosmer

John Jaso

Adam Lind *

Mitch Moreland

Logan Morrison

Mike Napoli

Mark Reynolds

Carlos Santana

 

Many of the 2017 teams of the listed players are in the market for a replacement at first base.

[Larry Cook]

In my mind, I am ok going into next season with Travis as 1/2 of a platoon situation at first base, as long as whoever we sign has some power and allows us to have a lefty - righty platoon at the plate.

[Kimmi]

Last offseason MLB Trade Rumors predicted a four-year, $92 million contract for Edwin Encarnacion:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2016-17-top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions.html

 

Encarnacion reportedly turned down an early four-year, $80 million offer from the Blue Jays before signing the three-year. $60 million contract with the Guardians (with a club option for a fourth year).

 

This offseason MLB Trade Rumors predict J.D. Martinez at six years and $150 million, Eric Hosmer at six years and $132 million, and Carlos Santana at three years and $45 million:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

 

The predictions for Martinez, Hosmer, and Santana sound reasonable, IMO. Not that I'd give either Martinez or Hosmer a 6 year deal, but they sound reasonable in terms of what teams would be willing to sign those players for.

 

As I said in the other thread, if signing Martinez is going to take more than 5 years, I would prefer Santana for 3 years. I've heard some speculation on Santana getting 5 years, which would be a definite deal breaker for me.

[notin]

...and, how many teams really need a 1Bman?

 

 

 

 

Quite a few.

 

Count the number of first basemen in the market and there's your rough answer. They all vacated somewhere...

[notin]

In my mind, I am ok going into next season with Travis as 1/2 of a platoon situation at first base, as long as whoever we sign has some power and allows us to have a lefty - righty platoon at the plate.

 

 

Travis is a worse option than Swihart. ...

[moonslav59]

Quite a few.

 

Count the number of first basemen in the market and there's your rough answer. They all vacated somewhere...

 

Cleveland might go with EE and/or Chisenhall.

 

My guess is KC gets Morrison or Moreland, and TB gets Duda.

 

The A's will not sign a 1Bman and Seattle has the A's 1Bman for next year. Maybe Reynolds returns to COL.

 

That leaves Hosmer, Santana and Alonso with Texas and the Sox as the biggest bidders out there.

 

Am I missing something? (Someone?)

[moonslav59]

Travis is a worse option than Swihart. ...

 

Hard to know, but neither is anyone we should count on in an important role.

 

One may end up winning a key role, but they will not be handed one over this winter.

 

[moonslav59]

The Mariners made yet another trade: this time they help the Yanks clear a roster spot for a rule 5 player to be protected. Seattle acquired Nick Rumeblow.

 

According to MLBTR, the Rays are looking to rebuild and might be open to trade all their biggest contracts, including Longoria & Archer. Look at Archer's Luxury tax cost...

 

Rays Contracts

 

$94M/6 Longoria (Luxury: $16.7M)

 

$33.75M/4 Archer (Luxury: $4.25M)

 

Arbitrations Estimates:

 

Odorizzi $7M (2nd or 3)

Dickerson $6.5M (2nd of 3)

Hechavarria $5M (3rd of 3)

B Miller $5M (2nd of 3)

S Souza $4M (1st of 3)

 

Lot's of players to drool over, but how realistic is it for the Sox to have the prospects needed to land one from a divisional rival?

 

 

 

 

Edited November 19, 2017 by moonslav59

[harmony]

Cleveland might go with EE and/or Chisenhall.

 

My guess is KC gets Morrison or Moreland, and TB gets Duda.

 

The A's will not sign a 1Bman and Seattle has the A's 1Bman for next year. Maybe Reynolds returns to COL.

 

That leaves Hosmer, Santana and Alonso with Texas and the Sox as the biggest bidders out there.

 

Am I missing something? (Someone?)

The Red Sox might sign Adam Lind.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox might sign Adam Lind.

 

LOL, yes, if we also sign JD Martinez.

[notin]

Cleveland might go with EE and/or Chisenhall.

 

My guess is KC gets Morrison or Moreland, and TB gets Duda.

 

The A's will not sign a 1Bman and Seattle has the A's 1Bman for next year. Maybe Reynolds returns to COL.

 

That leaves Hosmer, Santana and Alonso with Texas and the Sox as the biggest bidders out there.

 

Am I missing something? (Someone?)

 

 

Oakland is actually fairly likely to sign a 1B, just not a pricey one. Cleveland could go either way, but are not so likely to cheap out the way you predict.

 

Also don't leave out the Mets and the Angels to the list of suitors (and non-tender candidate CJ Cron to the list of available free agents)...

[moonslav59]

Oakland is actually fairly likely to sign a 1B, just not a pricey one. Cleveland could go either way, but are not so likely to cheap out the way you predict.

 

Also don't leave out the Mets and the Angels to the list of suitors (and non-tender candidate CJ Cron to the list of available free agents)...

 

MLBTR reported that the A's may go with Matt Chapman or Matt Olson at 1B and use Khris Davis at DH. Yes, they might sign an Adam Lind or Lucas Duda type.

 

The Guardians may go somewhat large at 1B, but there seems to be enough or more than enough for all the "big players."

 

Look at last year's signings at 1B or 1B/DH:

 

$60M/3 Encarnacion

$37.5M/3 Trumbo

$8.5M/1 Napoli

$15M/2 Valbuena

$12.5M/2 Pearce

$12M/2 B Moss

$5.5M Moreland

$16M/3 E Thames

$3.5M/1 Chris Carter

$12.9M/4 Dae-ho Lee

$2.5M/1 Morrison

$1.5M/1 A Lind

 

[oldtimer]

MLBTR reported that the A's may go with Matt Chapman or Matt Olson at 1B and use Khris Davis at DH. Yes, they might sign an Adam Lind or Lucas Duda type.

 

The Guardians may go somewhat large at 1B, but there seems to be enough or more than enough for all the "big players."

 

Look at last year's signings at 1B or 1B/DH:

 

$60M/3 Encarnacion

$37.5M/3 Trumbo

$8.5M/1 Napoli

$15M/2 Valbuena

$12.5M/2 Pearce

$12M/2 B Moss

$5.5M Moreland

$16M/3 E Thames

$3.5M/1 Chris Carter

$12.9M/4 Dae-ho Lee

$2.5M/1 Morrison

$1.5M/1 A Lind

 

 

Interesting article up today that has both Holt and Leon being moved in some way. Swihart may get a chance as backup to Vazquez. Brentz as our 4th outfielder with a 5th being someone with a special talent like Maybin or santanfor their baserunning. The article postulates getting Kim from Baltimore as a backup player and going with Henrnadez while Pedroia is out. Do we go with Duda or Santana at first? The article is posted under red sox news.

[cp176]

I'm not surprised at all with the Sox trying to move Leon. i've felt like this could happen for a while now. His reputation as a solid major league catcher makes him a potential minor trade chip. He has value. Vazquez wants to be recognized by more than just the folks here as the number one guy. He wants to catch more games. Leon is too good to be considered as just a backup for Vaz.

[harmony]

Interesting article up today that has both Holt and Leon being moved in some way. Swihart may get a chance as backup to Vazquez. Brentz as our 4th outfielder with a 5th being someone with a special talent like Maybin or santanfor their baserunning. The article postulates getting Kim from Baltimore as a backup player and going with Henrnadez while Pedroia is out. Do we go with Duda or Santana at first? The article is posted under red sox news.

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2017/11/19/heres-a-reasonable-offseason-to-do-list-for-the-red-sox

[moonslav59]

Interesting article up today that has both Holt and Leon being moved in some way. Swihart may get a chance as backup to Vazquez. Brentz as our 4th outfielder with a 5th being someone with a special talent like Maybin or santanfor their baserunning. The article postulates getting Kim from Baltimore as a backup player and going with Henrnadez while Pedroia is out. Do we go with Duda or Santana at first? The article is posted under red sox news.

 

I wish we had traded Holt when his stock was higher.

 

I'm not sure we trade him this winter, but he could be dealt once Pedey gets back. It's also nice having a 5th OF'er, especially if Brentz fizzles out.

 

I think Marco Hernandez was the back-up plan for Pablo this year, but his injury ruined his chance to prove himself. I do think the Sox organization is high on Marco. With Swihart, Marrero and Holt all out of options, I can see us trading one.

 

Leon was pretty much Sale's caddy this year. Vaz only caught 5 innings with him (13.50 ERA). I could see Leon traded and vaz given the FT job.

 

[notin]

I'm not surprised at all with the Sox trying to move Leon. i've felt like this could happen for a while now. His reputation as a solid major league catcher makes him a potential minor trade chip. He has value. Vazquez wants to be recognized by more than just the folks here as the number one guy. He wants to catch more games. Leon is too good to be considered as just a backup for Vaz.

 

No.

 

Leon is a journeyman catcher who had one good season at the plate. Anything he can be dealt for has its equivalent on the free agent market, and not the expensive side, either.

 

Leon has very little trade value. He can be traded, but likely only for another player with very little trade value. ...

[notin]

 

The Guardians may go somewhat large at 1B, but there seems to be enough or more than enough for all the "big players."

 

 

 

 

Who are the "big players"?

 

I think they come from list of Boston, St.Louis, Texas, the Mets and the Angels.

 

Now who are their big money targets....

[moonslav59]

Who are the "big players"?

 

I think they come from list of Boston, St.Louis, Texas, the Mets and the Angels.

 

Now who are their big money targets....

 

I hoping and praying Hosmer goes to one of the other 4 teams you listed.

 

I'm glad Seattle is not contending for a 1Bman anymore.

 

That leaves 3-4 teams looking at...

 

Santana

 

Reynolds & Morrison (not really "big players" but significant enough)

 

Then the next tier...

 

Alonso

Moreland

Duda

 

Someone may trade for a 1Bman.

 

Someone, like us, might sign Moustakas and move their 3Bman to 1B.

 

Also, we could not even sign a 1Bman and go with Hram at 1B and sign a 4th OF'er who can DH (JD Martinez?).

 

[moonslav59]

No.

 

Leon is a journeyman catcher who had one good season at the plate. Anything he can be dealt for has its equivalent on the free agent market, and not the expensive side, either.

 

Leon has very little trade value. He can be traded, but likely only for another player with very little trade value. ...

 

He'd likely be traded for a player (or prospect) who has options left.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR has a few stories on the Sox...

 

***One guesses the Sox protect Jaleb Beeks, Chandler Sheherd & Jake Cozart from the Rule 5 Draft.

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/11/19/red-sox-mull-candidates-for-man-roster/tAcBZeJdWU7OND8AqeyjCM/story.html

 

*** One mentions possibly going "small" and saving some money for mid season by "going after ... Jay Bruce, Hyun Soo Kim & Zach Duke."

 

*** One mentions Bryce Brentz looking to get some playing time as the 4th OF'er and talk of lessening Sale's workload next season. They mention the fact that we have 5 more off days in next year's schedule, which will help.

 

http://m.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/261909244/bryce-brentz-added-to-red-sox-40-man-roster/

 

We have 20 days off during the season, not counting the 4 day all star break.

 

We end the season at home vs Bal for 3 (day off) then 3 at home vs the Yanks.

 

Before those 6 games we go to NYY for 3 then CLE for 3. That's a tough last 12 games.

 

We start the season at TBR for 4 then 2 at Miami (no days off). Then we have a day off, play vs TBR at home, another day off (a rare Friday off), 2 more at home, then another offday before playing NYY (3) and BAL (4) before a west coast road trip with no day off for travel.

 

So, maybe we start the season like this...

 

@TBR Sale

@TBR Price

@TBR Pom

@TBR Porchello

@MIA Wright

@MIA Sale

Off

TBR Price +1

Off

TBR Pom +2

TBR Porch +2

Off

NYY Sale +2

NYY Price +1

NYY Pom

BAL Porch

BAL Wright +7

BAL Sale

BAL Price

 

If we pitch Sale game 2, he gets an extra day's rest before his next 2 starts.

[moonslav59]

On Stanton...

 

There are some evaluators around MLB who believe the Marlins need a “reality check” with regards to their asking price for the slugger, Buster Olney of ESPN writes. With $295MM left on his contract and an opt-out clause after 2020 on his deal, Stanton lacks surplus value, per Olney, which jibes with a Morosi report from earlier this week. One executive told Olney that the Marlins are “not going to find teams willing to give up both the money and the prospects, and that’s why [they’ll] probably have to choose: They can either take the talent and eat some of the money, or they’ll have to prioritize the [money] savings.”

_______________________________________

 

I think the Sox might be one of the few teams willing to take the full contract, thereby lessening the return to a point where I think some might be surprised ho little they get back.

[harmony]

I hoping and praying Hosmer goes to one of the other 4 teams you listed.

 

I'm glad Seattle is not contending for a 1Bman anymore.

I would not be surprised if the Mariners flip first baseman Ryon Healy in a package for an upgrade elsewhere.

 

Nothing is ever settled in Seattle.

[moonslav59]

I would not be surprised if the Mariners flip first baseman Ryon Healy in a package for an upgrade elsewhere.

 

Nothing is ever settled in Seattle.

 

Maybe they trade him to one of the 5 teams you mentioned vying for the services of the best 1Bmen. The amount of teams looking might stay the same.

[Larry Cook]

MLBTR has a few stories on the Sox...

 

***One guesses the Sox protect Jaleb Beeks, Chandler Sheherd & Jake Cozart from the Rule 5 Draft.

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/11/19/red-sox-mull-candidates-for-man-roster/tAcBZeJdWU7OND8AqeyjCM/story.html

 

*** One mentions possibly going "small" and saving some money for mid season by "going after ... Jay Bruce, Hyun Soo Kim & Zach Duke."

 

*** One mentions Bryce Brentz looking to get some playing time as the 4th OF'er and talk of lessening Sale's workload next season. They mention the fact that we have 5 more off days in next year's schedule, which will help.

 

http://m.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/261909244/bryce-brentz-added-to-red-sox-40-man-roster/

 

We have 20 days off during the season, not counting the 4 day all star break.

 

We end the season at home vs Bal for 3 (day off) then 3 at home vs the Yanks.

 

Before those 6 games we go to NYY for 3 then CLE for 3. That's a tough last 12 games.

 

We start the season at TBR for 4 then 2 at Miami (no days off). Then we have a day off, play vs TBR at home, another day off (a rare Friday off), 2 more at home, then another offday before playing NYY (3) and BAL (4) before a west coast road trip with no day off for travel.

 

So, maybe we start the season like this...

 

@TBR Sale

@TBR Price

@TBR Pom

@TBR Porchello

@MIA Wright

@MIA Sale

Off

TBR Price +1

Off

TBR Pom +2

TBR Porch +2

Off

NYY Sale +2

NYY Price +1

NYY Pom

BAL Porch

BAL Wright +7

BAL Sale

BAL Price

 

If we pitch Sale game 2, he gets an extra day's rest before his next 2 starts.

 

Do you really think price will be healthy enough to pitch in 2018?

[moonslav59]

Do you really think price will be healthy enough to pitch in 2018?

 

Yes. His elbow is magical.

[cp176]

No.

 

Leon is a journeyman catcher who had one good season at the plate. Anything he can be dealt for has its equivalent on the free agent market, and not the expensive side, either.

 

Leon has very little trade value. He can be traded, but likely only for another player with very little trade value. ...

 

Yes - Leon = "minor trade chip"

As a part of a package, he becomes more valuable.

[S5Dewey]

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Leon get traded. He's a solid defensive catcher and there's always room for one of those, especially one who's shown flashes of offensive brilliance. After all, we have a CF who fits that profile - ok, a little better than "solid" at his position, but still... those flashes of brilliance give hope. Leon will never be the centerpiece of a trade but as 176 says, he adds a lot of value as part of a trade.

 

I also think we've been underestimating Swihart as a catcher. He's not Vaz behind the plate but that's ok as a backup. Plus he's cheap.