A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

With Betts, Beni, JBJ and Devers all LH'd batters, and HRam's contract a year or two away from ending, should be value Stanton, JD Martinez and switch hitter Santana much more than normal?

 

(Hosmer & Moustakas bat LH'd.)

[a700hitter]

Mookie Betts hits from the right side.

And he did not provide a lot of power with only 24 HRs and an .803 OPS.

[OH FOY]

Singing to the choir...

 

(MLBTR)

 

Why the Red Sox shouldn’t sign Eric Hosmer.

 

Eric Hosmer is a good player that would make the Red Sox better. He’s an old-fashioned first baseman who hits the ball to all fields for a good average, hits doubles more than homers and fields the position reasonably well, depending on which defensive metric you trust most.

 

But he’s an imperfect fit for this Red Sox lineup and organization, and as he is coming off a career season is liable to make more than he’s worth this winter, especially considering the draft-pick compensation tied to him with the qualifying offer.

 

Boston’s biggest need in the lineup isn’t just for a power hitter; it’s for a right-handed power hitter. Hosmer fits neither of those designations.

 

If we sketch out not just the 2018 Red Sox batting order but into 2019 and 2020 as well, Boston’s middle of the order is likely to involve Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi. That’s two lefties and one righty, so in an ideal world, you’re getting another righty to complement that group. Also, Fenway Park is easier for a righty to exploit for power.

 

Hosmer’s 25 home runs this past season represent a career high. He’s likely to hit for less power than guys like Betts, Devers and Benintendi to begin with. He’s also the type of player whose power seems most tied to the composition of the baseball. Before baseball’s home run boom started at the 2015 All-Star break, Hosmer had never even hit 20 homers in a season; he had homered once every 40.9 plate appearances. Since then, he’s homered once every 25.4 plate appearances. If the ball is altered back to where it was a few years ago, his power is likely to regress.

 

It’s tempting to attribute Hosmer’s low power numbers to Kauffman Stadium and suggest that he’d be due for more homers with 81 games at Fenway Park. However, he’s barely hit more homers on the road than at home in his career (67 to 60) and his slugging percentage has been higher in Kansas City despite a better batting average on the road. And Fenway isn’t exactly a bandbox to straightaway right and right-center.

 

Signing Hosmer would lock the Red Sox into him at first base for the foreseeable future, closing off one of the simplest avenues to adding a legitimate power bat. It would also close off a possible move across the diamond for Devers, should Boston ever need to consider one. And it would limit the paths to the majors for Sam Travis and especially Michael Chavis. The presence of those prospects shouldn’t deter the Red Sox from making a big move, as it seemed to last year with Edwin Encarnacion. But it should be a factor in the decision-making.

 

 

In general, Hosmer has some of the same warning signs to me that Pablo Sandoval had. He’s a nice player whose reputation exceeds his actual production because he’s been good on the postseason stage. He’s not the type of player who should hit in the middle of a good Boston order, nor one who should be given a long-term deal averaging close to $25 million per season.

 

If that the same article that says the Sox shouldn't sign Moustakas too?

[moonslav59]

If that the same article that says the Sox shouldn't sign Moustakas too?

 

Yes, because he's a lefty hitter.

[OH FOY]

That article says Sox shouldn't sign or Trade for anyone. Guy is a clown. Edited November 11, 2017 by OH FOY!

[Larry Cook]

That article says Sox shouldn't sign or Trade for anyone. Guy is a clown.

 

Or extremely enthusiastic about in house options!

[Bellhorn04]

That article says Sox shouldn't sign or Trade for anyone. Guy is a clown.

 

One thing he didn't say was that the Sox shouldn't sign Martinez, so apparently he's in favor of that.

[moonslav59]

That article says Sox shouldn't sign or Trade for anyone. Guy is a clown.

 

I thought the next thing he was going to say was he was against us breathing.

[moonslav59]

Or extremely enthusiastic about in house options!

 

Actually, he was against us using internal solutions at 2B while Pedey is out.

 

However, he failed to say what he was for.

[OH FOY]

I thought the next thing he was going to say was he was against us breathing.

 

While we might differ on Players, we cant stay status quo, we need improvement.

[Bellhorn04]

Actually, he was against us using internal solutions at 2B while Pedey is out.

 

However, he failed to say what he was for.

 

That'll be his next column, of course.

[OH FOY]

One thing he didn't say was that the Sox shouldn't sign Martinez, so apparently he's in favor of that.

 

He should have wrote about it then, take a stand.

At the end of article he says the Sox shouldn't sit out this Off-Season, that's funny.

Edited November 11, 2017 by OH FOY!

[Larry Cook]

He should have wrote about it then, take a stand.

At the end of article he says the Sox shouldn't sit out this Off-Season, that's funny.

 

Maybe he is a closet yankee fan!

[OH FOY]

Don't go after Stanton, Hosmer, Moustakas, Azuna, Nunez, Abreu, Freeman, Votto, more I'm sure, some I agree with.

But then he says Sox shouldn't sit out this Off-Season. ha

 

Edit: He did say he likes Martinez over Stanton.

Edited November 11, 2017 by OH FOY!

[Jack Flap]

Guys, that column had a sequel...turns out he is in favor of some things.

 

http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20171109/what-red-sox-should-do-this-offseason

[Jack Flap]

Singing to the choir...

 

(MLBTR)

 

Why the Red Sox shouldn’t sign Eric Hosmer.

 

Eric Hosmer is a good player that would make the Red Sox better. He’s an old-fashioned first baseman who hits the ball to all fields for a good average, hits doubles more than homers and fields the position reasonably well, depending on which defensive metric you trust most.

 

But he’s an imperfect fit for this Red Sox lineup and organization, and as he is coming off a career season is liable to make more than he’s worth this winter, especially considering the draft-pick compensation tied to him with the qualifying offer.

 

Boston’s biggest need in the lineup isn’t just for a power hitter; it’s for a right-handed power hitter. Hosmer fits neither of those designations.

 

If we sketch out not just the 2018 Red Sox batting order but into 2019 and 2020 as well, Boston’s middle of the order is likely to involve Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi. That’s two lefties and one righty, so in an ideal world, you’re getting another righty to complement that group. Also, Fenway Park is easier for a righty to exploit for power.

 

Hosmer’s 25 home runs this past season represent a career high. He’s likely to hit for less power than guys like Betts, Devers and Benintendi to begin with. He’s also the type of player whose power seems most tied to the composition of the baseball. Before baseball’s home run boom started at the 2015 All-Star break, Hosmer had never even hit 20 homers in a season; he had homered once every 40.9 plate appearances. Since then, he’s homered once every 25.4 plate appearances. If the ball is altered back to where it was a few years ago, his power is likely to regress.

 

It’s tempting to attribute Hosmer’s low power numbers to Kauffman Stadium and suggest that he’d be due for more homers with 81 games at Fenway Park. However, he’s barely hit more homers on the road than at home in his career (67 to 60) and his slugging percentage has been higher in Kansas City despite a better batting average on the road. And Fenway isn’t exactly a bandbox to straightaway right and right-center.

 

Signing Hosmer would lock the Red Sox into him at first base for the foreseeable future, closing off one of the simplest avenues to adding a legitimate power bat. It would also close off a possible move across the diamond for Devers, should Boston ever need to consider one. And it would limit the paths to the majors for Sam Travis and especially Michael Chavis. The presence of those prospects shouldn’t deter the Red Sox from making a big move, as it seemed to last year with Edwin Encarnacion. But it should be a factor in the decision-making.

 

 

In general, Hosmer has some of the same warning signs to me that Pablo Sandoval had. He’s a nice player whose reputation exceeds his actual production because he’s been good on the postseason stage. He’s not the type of player who should hit in the middle of a good Boston order, nor one who should be given a long-term deal averaging close to $25 million per season.

 

I do agree with this take on Hosmer. I see him as a good, not great, player who's going to get a contract beyond what he probably should (not too different from Sandoval or Crawford in that regard, though they're obviously very different players). I'm not going to be upset if we do sign him, I just think there are better ways to use our resources.

[moonslav59]

I do agree with this take on Hosmer. I see him as a good, not great, player who's going to get a contract beyond what he probably should (not too different from Sandoval or Crawford in that regard, though they're obviously very different players). I'm not going to be upset if we do sign him, I just think there are better ways to use our resources.

 

Committing to 5 years for 1Bman of Hosmer's quality is asking for worse than HRam & Pablo.

 

1B should be a position of greater power and offense than Hosmer brings to the table.

[moonslav59]

Guys, that column had a sequel...turns out he is in favor of some things.

 

http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20171109/what-red-sox-should-do-this-offseason

 

Yes to Plan A JD Martinez and Plan B Santana.

 

No to Kinsler or W Flores.

 

Okay with Tyler Chatwood.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Teixeira was a failure, he won 1 World Championship, too much money for only 1.

 

That’s a pretty strange take. Mike Trout is a failure since he hasn’t won a title?

 

Teixeira averaged nearly 4 WAR from a power position for the first 4 years of the contract. He was injured for 2 seasons, came back in year 7 with a strong year and was done in year 8. If you sign someone to an 8 year deal and you get 4 solid years out of the gate and one last gasp later in the deal, you take it

[moonslav59]

That’s a pretty strange take. Mike Trout is a failure since he hasn’t won a title?

 

Teixeira averaged nearly 4 WAR from a power position for the first 4 years of the contract. He was injured for 2 seasons, came back in year 7 with a strong year and was done in year 8. If you sign someone to an 8 year deal and you get 4 solid years out of the gate and one last gasp later in the deal, you take it

 

A little bit deceiving. He was at 2.8 year 4, so the 4.0 average WAR for the first 4 years was front-loaded.

 

3 out of 8 years with a WAR over 2.9 is probably not what the Yankee FO hoped for. (He had 4 straight years over 3.5 before signing with the Yanks and only 2 out of 8 seasons over 3.4 with the Yanks.)

 

I wouldn't call the signing a bust, but I am glad the Sox didn't win that bidding war.

 

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

His fangraphs value was about 2/3 his contract over the life of the deal. When you sign a free agent we’ll into their 30s, that’s not half bad. He wasn’t a bust, but he also wasn’t a totally shrewd signing

[notin]

His fangraphs value was about 2/3 his contract over the life of the deal. When you sign a free agent we’ll into their 30s, that’s not half bad. He wasn’t a bust, but he also wasn’t a totally shrewd signing

 

It wasn't a good deal, and the Yankees wild spending spree that off-season got one immediate title and nothing else. The qualification for Teixeira "in his 30s" really just supports my long standing view about free agency.

 

The Yankees would have been better off not signing Teixeira and drafting Trout...

Edited November 12, 2017 by notin

[moonslav59]

His fangraphs value was about 2/3 his contract over the life of the deal. When you sign a free agent we’ll into their 30s, that’s not half bad. He wasn’t a bust, but he also wasn’t a totally shrewd signing

 

He certainly out performed many other big free agent signees, but the signing was still had an overall negative impact.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reported Saturday that Boston is “definitely in play” for Stanton, but sources tell Jon Heyman of FanRag that the Red Sox don’t look like the front-runners for him at the moment. Rather, the Sox are more focused on other players, including free agent outfielder J.D. Martinez, per Heyman.

[moonslav59]

The fun may begin as early as Tuesday.

[Kimmi]

The fun may begin as early as Tuesday.

 

What fun? I really do not like the Hot Stove. This time of the baseball year drives me crazy.

[moonslav59]

What fun? I really do not like the Hot Stove. This time of the baseball year drives me crazy.

 

As much as we have been burned, I'm still thrilled by this time of year.

[harmony]

As much as we have been burned, I'm still thrilled by this time of year.

I have an unhealthy addiction to the Hot Stove season.

[Jack Flap]

"Hot stove" season and the buildup to the trade deadline are both very fun times of year to me, particularly when the Sox are expected to be active. (Which, with Dombrowski at the helm, figures to be just about always.) Of course, that comes with a lot of BS as well, but you just have to take it in stride and enjoy the craziness.

[moonslav59]

Steamer 2018 Projections based on 600 PAs for everyone:

 

7.9 Trout

5.8 Harper

5.6 Donaldson, Machado & Bryant

5.5 Correa

5.3 Lindor

5.1 Betts & Stanton

5.0 Seager

 

26. Beltre 3.6

35. Bogaerts 3.4

36. Ozuna 3.4

37. Dozier 3.4

39. JBJ 3.1

43. Pedey 3.0

48. Moustakas

50. Santana 2.9

56. Cozart 2.8

60. Devers 2.7

61. Abreu 2.7

69. Beni 2.6

83. Martinez 2.4

86. Hosmer 2.4

88. Frazier 2.4

114. Nunez 2.1

 

Pitchers

5.9 Sale, Kershaw

5.5 Kluber

4.9 Carrasco, Syndergaard

4.8 Scherzer

4.6 Strasburg, Severino, Archer

4.5 Quintana, R Ray

4.3 Price

4.1 Paxton, deGrom, J Gray, Greinke

3.9 Pineda

3.8 Darvish, Wood, Nola

 

40. Pomeranz 3.2

41. ERod 2.9

47. Porcello 2.8

48. Arrieta 2.7

78. Hector Velazquez 2.4, T Chatwood, CC Sabathia

90. A Cobb 2.3

 

RP

1.7 Kimbrel

1.5 Miller

1.3 Jansen

 

 

Edited November 13, 2017 by moonslav59