A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[mvp 78]

Why don't you tell me why you think it's not absurd for a GM to know one of his players is having surgery and two more will be shortly.

 

I think my position does not need explaining any more.

 

You don't have to explain your one note position any more.

 

I think Dombrowski was more concerned with firing John Farrell that day and that's fine by me.

[moonslav59]

You don't have to explain your one note position any more.

 

I think Dombrowski was more concerned with firing John Farrell that day and that's fine by me.

 

I'm fine with any reason given. I just think it's absurd for a GM to not know it or forget it.

[Kimmi]

Does anyone have the direct quote? I can't seem to find it.

 

I don't know the direct quote, but what he said was that he did not know of any player needing surgery. That's not a reason to fire him, but it's certainly not a good look. How can a GM not know that a player needs surgery 2-3 days before the surgery occurs? He is either a clueless idiot in that regard or he's a liar. Neither option paints him in a very good light.

 

If he's trying not to 'tip his hand', which I don't really buy considering the timing of the surgeries, there are plenty of other comments he could have made.

[moonslav59]

Scott was out for the rest of the year, so there's no "tipping his hand" argument to make. Our opponents could not possibly gain any advantage by knowing or not knowing.

 

I'm not sure about a direct quote, but it appears in these two articles from MLBTR:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/red-sox-notes-scott-gardenhire-ausmus-swihart.html

 

As several have pointed out (including CSN New England’s Evan Drellich, on Twitter), it’s rather confounding that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told the media just yesterday that he wasn’t aware of any Sox players that required offseason surgery on the very day on which Scott was undergoing this procedure.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/hanley-ramirez-undergoes-shoulder-surgery.html

 

Shoulder issues plagued Ramirez throughout the season, but he had not previously given any indication that he was set to go under the knife, as Rob Bradford of WEEI.com notes on Twitter. And president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said less than a week ago that he was not aware of any players who’d need surgery. (Of course, it was later announced that lefty Robby Scott underwent a procedure that very day.)

 

It's not a big deal to me. It's certainly not even close to a fireable event.

 

It does seem a bit absurd to me that a GM either...

 

1) did not know 3 of his players were getting surgery, including one on the day he said it.

2) lied about players needing surgery for no possible reason.

3) nobody told him, and there is a major communication problem between the GM and medical staff.

 

I'm not sure which one of these answers make him look best... maybe #2?

 

Again, it's not a big deal. There's just not much else to talk about with the Sox at this moment.

 

[bosoxmal]

Miami won't give Stanton for anything less than Devers and Benentendi.

 

Who ever dreames that one up sgould be at least shot!

[bosoxmal]

I know you were never high on Swihart, but as we saw with Vaz this year, catchers sometimes take large leaps at later ages than other positions.

 

I'm not overly confident in Swihart making a big leap next year, but I hate giving up on him. I guess I had higher hopes than others and you.

 

The pre=w;; slamminmg swihart and the post-wll slamming Swihart is like apples an oranges. Not the same guy. I agree on the possibility of catcher improvement, but I am hopeful that they give another shot at LF. Good switch hitters are hard to find. Esp. those that seem to hit more or less the same from eith side.

[harmony]

The pre=w;; slamminmg swihart and the post-wll slamming Swihart is like apples an oranges. Not the same guy. I agree on the possibility of catcher improvement, but I am hopeful that they give another shot at LF. Good switch hitters are hard to find. Esp. those that seem to hit more or less the same from eith side.

I question whether Blake Swihart qualifies as a "good switch hitter."

 

Swihart, who turns 26 in April, has posted a wRC+ of 93 in 390 MLB plate appearances and a sub-100 wRC+ in 485 plate appearances at the Triple A level.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

 

Nevertheless I hope Swihart has a productive career.

[moonslav59]

The pre=w;; slamminmg swihart and the post-wll slamming Swihart is like apples an oranges. Not the same guy. I agree on the possibility of catcher improvement, but I am hopeful that they give another shot at LF. Good switch hitters are hard to find. Esp. those that seem to hit more or less the same from eith side.

 

My hope is he can be a useful utility player who can be a serviceable 3rd catcher. This would allow us to Ph for our catchers without worry of a later injury.

 

If he can play LF, C and maybe a c orner IF position (or two), he'd be valuable to us or another team.

 

First, he has to show he is over the injury and can hit well.

 

He's out of options, so it's basically now or never for the Sox & Swi.

[moonslav59]

fangraphs has updated its 40 man roster and option totals. Here's the low down...

 

Zero Options

Rutledge

Swihart

Marrero

Johnson

Hembree

Leon

Vazquez

Pomeranz

 

 

One Option (no player permission needed)

Elias

Workman

Thornburg

JBJ

 

One Options (needs player permission)

Holt

 

Two Options

Hernandez

Scott

Ross

Velazquez

Taylor

Lin

Maddox

Travis

Barnes

C Smith

ERod

Price

Kimbrel

Betts

 

Three Options

Sale

Bogaerts

Devers

Benintendi

 

[NativeBostonian]

After reading all of this and looking at the money invested reinsures to me why Farrell got fired. If you can't make it out of the first round two years in a row with this amount of money invested, you shouldn't expect anything else. I say the Red Sox should go after Logan Morrison. I always enjoyed watching the guy when I lived in Tampa.

[moonslav59]

After reading all of this and looking at the money invested reinsures to me why Farrell got fired. If you can't make it out of the first round two years in a row with this amount of money invested, you shouldn't expect anything else. I say the Red Sox should go after Logan Morrison. I always enjoyed watching the guy when I lived in Tampa.

 

He could work out well here.

 

He was only in TB one year, another diamond in the ruff career year by the Rays.

[moonslav59]

On Stanton...

 

Jason Martinez from the MLBTR chat, doesn't seem to think the Marlins will get much for Stanton, if the team takes all the salary. Here's the exchange:

 

6:01 What do you think is realistic for the marlins to expect back if they take on none of Stanton's salary?

 

Jason Martinez:

6:02 Even if they can clear the entire salary, I have to think they'd land at least one Top 50 prospect. This is why I don't think the Giants have any chance.

 

Baseball America has these big spending teams top ranked prospects listed like this... (mid-season)

 

NYY

3 G Torres

36 B Rutherford

49 C Frazier

56 C Adams

71 E Florial

73 J Sheffield

 

BOS

6 Devers

87 Groome

96 Chavez

 

LAD

17 W Buehler

35 A Verdugo

60 Y Alvarez

74 W Calhoun

 

SFG

86 C Shaw

 

Cubs

none

 

It looks like a 3 team race, if it comes down to money and top prospects: the Yanks, Dodgers and Sox.

 

Note: MLB.com has Groome at #42 and Chavis at #92.

 

Edited October 19, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Sox prospects.com reports that Jeremy Barfield says he has re-signed with the Sox. He's the guy who hit 9 HRs in 13 games and 27 in 92 games after coming to the Sox farm system from my hometown Sugar Land Skeeters (Independent League).

 

Read more about their choices of the farm's top players by position:

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/10/2017-soxprospectscom-all-stars.html

 

 

Here are the award winners...

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/10/soxprospectscom-2017-season-end-award.html

 

[moonslav59]

Watching the Yankees shut down the 4th best offensive team since 1901 makes me realize just how much a crap shoot the playoffs are. There are no guarantees for anyone. Even with a great offense, there is no sure thing- not even close.

 

I'm not one to easily change my view based on one game or one series, but I am swinging a little more to the camp that values striving for playoff appearances more than seeking more but sporadic rings.

 

Just get to the dance.

 

That being said, I'm still thinking we can greatly improve our odds by acquiring one gigantic power bat or two very good ones.

[jacksonianmarch]

Watching the Yankees shut down the 4th best offensive team since 1901 makes me realize just how much a crap shoot the playoffs are. There are no guarantees for anyone. Even with a great offense, there is no sure thing- not even close.

 

I'm not one to easily change my view based on one game or one series, but I am swinging a little more to the camp that values striving for playoff appearances more than seeking more but sporadic rings.

 

Just get to the dance.

 

That being said, I'm still thinking we can greatly improve our odds by acquiring one gigantic power bat or two very good ones.

 

Either that or you aren't actually seeing the type of pitching NYY have. Our pitching is very, very good and the one guy who was really underachieving has proven himself an ace in the bigs before. He just decided to save it for the postseason this year. Great pitching will shut down great hitting most of the time. The interesting thing about NYY is that they have great starting pitching AND a great bullpen. You rarely see both

[oldtimer]

Watching the Yankees shut down the 4th best offensive team since 1901 makes me realize just how much a crap shoot the playoffs are. There are no guarantees for anyone. Even with a great offense, there is no sure thing- not even close.

 

I'm not one to easily change my view based on one game or one series, but I am swinging a little more to the camp that values striving for playoff appearances more than seeking more but sporadic rings.

 

Just get to the dance.

 

That being said, I'm still thinking we can greatly improve our odds by acquiring one gigantic power bat or two very good ones.

 

Two of the three Yankee starters this playoff season aren't hard throwers but they are effective pitchers. Tanaka keeps the ball down and has a lot of movement with sliders, splitters and some curves.Sabbathia is on the corners and seems to have hitters baffled. Neither is required to go deep since the BP is so solid and deep. Shutting down the Guardians and now the Astros says something about their pitching. Fireballers are nice to have but not necessarily essential. When pitchers get the ball up and over the plate they get susceptable.

[jacksonianmarch]

Fireballers have a little more wiggle room when it comes to location, but if you don't locate to the best hitters in the world, no matter how hard you throw, you will be beaten. I also wouldn't put Tanaka entirely into the pusballing crowd yet. He was hitting 95 yesterday. CC has also resurface with some velocity, sitting 91 and reaching 93-94 at times. Both of those guys were far less effective when their fastballs sat in the high 80s.

[moonslav59]

Either that or you aren't actually seeing the type of pitching NYY have. Our pitching is very, very good and the one guy who was really underachieving has proven himself an ace in the bigs before. He just decided to save it for the postseason this year. Great pitching will shut down great hitting most of the time. The interesting thing about NYY is that they have great starting pitching AND a great bullpen. You rarely see both

 

I've sung the praises of Sonny Gray and stated we should have gone for him. I thought you gave a lot for him, but he's an ace, when healthy, and it was an underpay for that many years of control.

 

I was skeptical of Kahle (sp?), but you pen has always looked solid on paper.

 

You guys went for it this year. You picked up 3 guys for every one we did during the season.

[mvp 78]

He could work out well here.

 

He was only in TB one year, another diamond in the ruff career year by the Rays.

 

He was there for 2 years. You may have forgotten his 2016 season as it was replacement level value.

[OH FOY]

With the Marlins hiring of Gary Denbo, puts the Yankees as my #1 for the team that might go after Stanton, then Dodgers, Sox last, as far as Prospects.

Denbo knows all the Yankee Prospects, since he was in charged of their Farm.

I think they don't go after him and full speed ahead for Otani, Tanaka already talking to him.

You have to think though, if Yankees go after Stanton it will be cheaper than Harper in a year.

Edited October 19, 2017 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

He was there for 2 years. You may have forgotten his 2016 season as it was replacement level value.

 

Easy to forget. Thanks for the correction.

[moonslav59]

With the Marlins hiring of Gary Denbo, puts the Yankees as my #1 for the team that might go after Stanton, then Dodgers, Sox last, as far as Prospects.

Denbo knows all the Yankee Prospects, since he was in charged of their Farm.

I think they don't go after him and full speed ahead for Otani, Tanaka already talking to him.

You have to think though, if Yankees go after Stanton it will be cheaper than Harper in a year.

 

The other big advantage is that Stanton's luxury tax hit is just $25M a year for the remainder- assuming no opt-out.

 

If Harper hits bigger money, and Stanton has a big 2018, he may look to opt out.

[moonslav59]

I think they [NYY] don't go after him [stanton] and full speed ahead for Otani, Tanaka already talking to him.

 

It doesn't have to be either-or. There's a limit on how much a team can give Otani.

 

There's enough money for both. The Yanks also have a ton of good prospects Miami will be interested in. It's just a matter of the Yanks really wanting him or not.

 

The ball is in their court, as much as I hate to admit it.

[notin]

When a player has a negative offensive WAR, I don't think fan advice would be any worse than their current approach!

 

 

Hmmmm... no.

 

66 players with at least 400 plate appearances had a lower offensive fWAR than Pedroia. Are you saying you could advise about 1/4 of tje starting position players in MLB?

[Bellhorn04]

Hmmmm... no.

 

66 players with at least 400 plate appearances had a lower offensive fWAR than Pedroia. Are you saying you could advise about 1/4 of tje starting position players in MLB?

 

mvp is a bit of a joker, shall we say. He's well aware that Pedroia's negative offensive rating was mainly a product of his awful baserunning numbers.

[mvp 78]

mvp is a bit of a joker, shall we say. He's well aware that Pedroia's negative offensive rating was mainly a product of his awful baserunning numbers.

 

He had a brutal 2017 for SLG and ISO, but he still rarely strikes out and has a decent OBP. He was 31st in R for 2b above 400 PA's. Woof. I don't think that's entirely due to his base running, but geez.

 

Then I saw Asdrubal Cabrera's BSR score and died.

[moonslav59]

fangraphs has Pedey ranked on their "value" page as such...

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=400&type=6&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d

 

 

34 2Bmen with 400+ PAs (they put just about anyone who played 2B on the list)

 

Pedey placed:

 

18th in batting

 

33rd in baserunning

 

(5th in fielding)

 

go to 450 PAs and the sample size goes to 28 players:

 

15 in batting +1.3

 

27 in running -4.7

 

(4th on D at +6.1)

 

 

Other numbers (out of 28 second basemen):

 

15th in wRC+ at 102

 

15th in wOBA .331

 

 

Edited October 19, 2017 by moonslav59

[notin]

With the Marlins hiring of Gary Denbo, puts the Yankees as my #1 for the team that might go after Stanton, then Dodgers, Sox last, as far as Prospects.

Denbo knows all the Yankee Prospects, since he was in charged of their Farm.

I think they don't go after him and full speed ahead for Otani, Tanaka already talking to him.

You have to think though, if Yankees go after Stanton it will be cheaper than Harper in a year.

 

Stanton also has a full NTC and might reject the Yankees and Sox.

 

He is an LA native. While this guarantees nothing, I don't recall any player ever turning down a large market, defending division winner hometown team.

 

The Sox chances rest solely on Stanton's desire to challenge the Green Monster...

[notin]

Notin - do you believe a major league baseball GM (or President of Operations) should know when not 1, not 2, but 3 of his current 25 man roster players are getting surgery? is that the least bit important to a GM that 3 of 25 players are having surgery?

 

sorry, the man looks clueless on this and doesnt get a "pass" from me.

 

I do believe that there are topics he wants to avoid and others he cannot/shouldn't talk about.

 

When Tom Brady is listed as "Questionable" every week and plays every Sunday, none of us suspect it's because Belichick is unaware of Tom's health...

[moonslav59]

I do believe that there are topics he wants to avoid and others he cannot/shouldn't talk about.

 

When Tom Brady is listed as "Questionable" every week and plays every Sunday, none of us suspect it's because Belichick is unaware of Tom's health...

 

Was Scott scheduled to pitch?