A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

I hope Blake Swihart has a productive career but I had guarded expectations even before his injury.

 

I have drawn comparisons of Swihart, who peaked at No. 17 on Baseball America's prospect chart in 2015, to catchers Travis D'Arnaud (who peaked at No. 17 in 2012), Devin Mesoraco (who peaked at No. 16 in 2012) and Mike Zunino (who peaked at No. 17 in 2013). Those catchers have experienced varying degrees of success, including Mesoraco's All Star appearance in 2014, but collectively they demonstrate of uncertain futures of former top prospects.

 

Swihart's marginal bat may be good enough to play at catcher but his defensive skills behind the plate may be lacking. Swihart's trade value has fallen behind that of backup Mets catcher Kevin Plawecki, who was BA's 63rd-ranked prospect the year Swihart ranked No. 16. Plawecki, a superior defender who is a year older than Swihart, has posted wRC+ of 120 and 128 the last two seasons at Triple A and a wRC+ of 106 in 118 MLB plate appearances this year. Red Sox fans praised Swihart for his bat when he posted a wRC+ of 93 in his 2015 rookie season. Swihart has a sub-100 wRC+ in 483 career plate appearances at Triple A.

 

On this forum before the season started I wrote that Swihart's performance in the first four months of 2017 would determine whether he has more, less or the same trade value as a same-aged Jarrod Saltalamacchia had in July 2010 when the Rangers traded the switch-hitting catcher to the Red Sox for spare parts. I also wrote that the Red Sox would be pleased if Swihart's age 25 season this year resembled Zunino's age 25 season in 2016. Swihart, like Zunino the year before, was a former 17th-ranked top prospect who was starting his age 25 at Triple A after a stint as a starting MLB catcher. Unfortunately Swihart regressed in his age 25 season while Zunino advanced.

 

Let's hope Swihart rebounds from his disappointing 2017 season.

 

I know you were never high on Swihart, but as we saw with Vaz this year, catchers sometimes take large leaps at later ages than other positions.

 

I'm not overly confident in Swihart making a big leap next year, but I hate giving up on him. I guess I had higher hopes than others and you.

[harmony]

Ball was a high draft pick, but I don't ever remember anyone saying he was "can't miss". Johnson still has a shot, and I think he was always looked upon as a 3-4 starter, at best.

 

I also think we've had better luck with our best prospects than maybe you are giving them credit for.

 

I'm not against trading prospects.

 

We may have to do so to win in this window.

Brian Johnson seems to fit the Seattle MO: a post-prospect starter/long reliever who can go through an opponent's lineup once or twice in a game. The Mariners may employ a tag-team approach by which no pitcher goes more than four innings in a game.

 

The nearly 27-year-old Johnson could be reunited with college battery-mate Mike Zunino, who like Johnson was taken out of the University of Florida in the first round of the 2012 draft:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2012&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

 

The finest game of Johnson's MLB career came in a shutout of the Mariners on May 27 of this year:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201705270.shtml

[moonslav59]

Brian Johnson seems to fit the Seattle MO: a post-prospect starter/long reliever who can go through an opponent's lineup once or twice in a game. The Mariners may employ a tag-team approach by which no pitcher goes more than four innings in a game.

 

The nearly 27-year-old Johnson could be reunited with college battery-mate Mike Zunino, who like Johnson was taken out of the University of Florida in the first round of the 2012 draft:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2012&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

 

The finest game of Johnson's MLB career came in a shutout of the Mariners on May 27 of this year:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201705270.shtml

 

Does your team have a 25 man roster crunch?

 

The Sox may be looking to trade 2 or 3 from Johnson, Hembree, Marrero and Swihart for 1 or 2 prospects or players with options remaining.

 

Suggest a trade match.

[moonslav59]

How's this...

 

Sign JD Martinez to play LF.

Move Beni back to CF.

Trade JBJ , Hembree, Marrero & Chavis for Donaldson.

Move Devers to 1B.

Sign Nunez as the super sub.

Let Pedey, Nunez and HRam share DH duties.

 

1. Bogey

2. Betts

3. Beni

4. JD

5. Donaldson

6. Devers

7. Pedey-HRam-Nunez

8. HRam-Nunez-Pedey

9. Vaz

 

[harmony]

How's this...

 

Sign JD Martinez to play LF.

Move Beni back to CF.

Trade JBJ , Hembree, Marrero & Chavis for Donaldson.

Move Devers to 1B.

Sign Nunez as the super sub.

Let Pedey, Nunez and HRam share DH duties.

 

1. Bogey

2. Betts

3. Beni

4. JD

5. Donaldson

6. Devers

7. Pedey-HRam-Nunez

8. HRam-Nunez-Pedey

9. Vaz

 

I suspect the Toronto Blue Jays would receive better offers for one year of Josh Donaldson, who has posted 35.2 fWAR, valued at more than $275 million, over the past five seasons.

 

I doubt the Red Sox would take on two 2018 salaries likely in excess of $20 million each for J.D. Martinez and Donaldson. The Blue Jay third baseman comes with one arbitration year of team control working off his 2017 salary of $17 million.

[moonslav59]

I suspect the Toronto Blue Jays would receive better offers for one year of Josh Donaldson, who has posted 35.2 fWAR, valued at more than $275 million, over the past five seasons.

 

I doubt the Red Sox would take on two 2018 salaries likely in excess of $20 million each for J.D. Martinez and Donaldson. The Blue Jay third baseman comes with one arbitration year of team control working off his 2017 salary of $17 million.

 

Donaldson dipped some last year and has one year left.

 

If the Sox shed JBJ's arb (or Bogey's) , they can afford 2 big salaries and still stay below the second penalty phase limit.

[harmony]

Donaldson dipped some last year and has one year left.

 

If the Sox shed JBJ's arb (or Bogey's) , they can afford 2 big salaries and still stay below the second penalty phase limit.

In his "dip" year Josh Donaldson posted 5 fWAR, valued at $39.6 million:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5038&position=3B#value

 

As points of reference, Mookie Betts led the Red Sox hitters with 5.3 fWAR followed by Xander Bogaerts with 3.2 fWAR and Jackie Bradley Jr. with 2.3 fWAR.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=3&rost=&age=&filter=&players=

 

Heath Hembree, Deven Marrero and Michael Chavis have limited trade value.

 

A poster at BP Boston suggested a trade of Bradley, Eduardo Rodriguez and "someone like Jalen Beeks" for two years of Miami outfielder Marcell Ozuna:

 

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/11/what-comes-next/

[notin]

Yes, slim pickings at clean up. I'm open to trade ideas, but I don't like the idea of creating 2 new holes to fill one canyon

 

Maybe the best idea is to avoid free agency when looking for a cleanup hitter. Sign Alex Cobb and deal Edwardo Rodriguez (plus? Chavis?) for one....

[a700hitter]

Maybe the best idea is to avoid free agency when looking for a cleanup hitter. Sign Alex Cobb and deal Edwardo Rodriguez (plus? Chavis?) for one....

I would be all for that, but do you think a pitcher with a chronically bad knee and Chavis can get us atop bat?

[notin]

I would be all for that, but do you think a pitcher with a chronically bad knee and Chavis can get us atop bat?

 

Depends on the contract of the hitter...

[harmony]

Depends on the contract of the hitter...

Albert Pujols. Adrian Gonzalez and Miguel Cabrera could be available in trade ...

[OH FOY]

Jose Abreu too. He opted out of his contract, and will get a good bump in pay in arbitration. White Sox should want to get out, might cost Sox very little in return, since WS are in rebuilding mode.

[harmony]

Jose Abreu too. He opted out of his contract, and will get a good bump in pay in arbitration. White Sox should want to get out, might cost Sox very little in return, since WS are in rebuilding mode.

MLB Trade Rumors projects Jose Abreu with a 2018 arbitration salary of $17.9 million:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2018.html

[notin]

MLB Trade Rumors projects Jose Abreu with a 2018 arbitration salary of $17.9 million:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2018.html

 

Done.

[notin]

Albert Pujols. Adrian Gonzalez and Miguel Cabrera could be available in trade ...

 

I doubt AGon returns to Boston, although LA will be desperate to move him.

 

Cabrera's contract is awful, but the guy running the show here did write it and might feel differently.

 

Albert Pujols is basically Hanley at this point in his career, but with a much longer and pricier contract. I wouldn't take that on unless they threw in Trout...

[moonslav59]

Maybe the best idea is to avoid free agency when looking for a cleanup hitter. Sign Alex Cobb and deal Edwardo Rodriguez (plus? Chavis?) for one....

 

To get a really good clean up hitter, we'll need to give more than ERod & Chavis- add Groome or Mata and maybe more.

 

If you trade for a big contract to lessen what we need to give up, then why not just sign someone? (And Cobb)

[moonslav59]

No Pujols.

 

No AGon.

 

No Miggy.

[harmony]

No Pujols.

 

No AGon.

 

No Miggy.

I agree but I was responding to notin's suggestion that a slugger's contract could bring down the cost in trade.

[moonslav59]

I agree but I was responding to notin's suggestion that a slugger's contract could bring down the cost in trade.

 

I don't think these three were who he had in mind, but I'll let him speak for himself.

 

(He has mentioned Abreu.)

[Spudboy]

Abrau at 3/48 sounds reasonable.

[harmony]

Abrau at 3/48 sounds reasonable.

Jose Abreu is not a free agent.

 

Abreu remains under team control for two more seasons with a projected 2018 arbitration salary of $17.9 million.

 

Abreu, who turns 31 in January, would command more than $48 million as a free agent after posting 14.5 fWAR, valued at $113.4 million, over his first four MLB seasons.

[moonslav59]

I'd love to have Abreu, but why trade for someone just marginally better than Moustakas or JD Martinez.

 

Of course, we are not the guaranteed winner of their sweepstakes, so he should remain an option.

 

[OH FOY]

Abreu much better hitter than Moustakas. What I read great clubhouse guy too. You know Cherrington came very close to signing him. Ownership stopped it. Moustakas never drove over 90 rbi's, or hit near .300

Had 1 good season that's it. Getting close to overrated, to me. #2 overall pick in the Draft too, that year.

.251 career average. Abreu .301 career avg. probably has more HRS too in less time.

4 yrs Abreu 124 Hrs

7 yrs Moustakas 119 Hrs.

Funny thing Abreu had 6 triples this year, Moustakas 0. Probably faster than him too. Must be he only has 4 career Triples.

Edited October 15, 2017 by OH FOY!

[harmony]

I'd love to have Abreu, but why trade for someone just marginally better than Moustakas or JD Martinez.

 

Of course, we are not the guaranteed winner of their sweepstakes, so he should remain an option.

 

FWIW, this season Eric Hosmer and Jose Abreu each posted 4.1 fWAR in 162 and 156 games, respectively, while J.D. Martinez posted 3.8 fWAR in 119 games.

 

The 30-year-old Martinez has played in more than 123 games in a single season only once in his seven-year MLB career (158 games in 2015).

[moonslav59]

Trading for Abreu opens new holes.

 

I already posted the numbers on JD's lack of seasons with 123+ games played.

 

I also posted the low OBP numbers by Moose.

 

Every acquisition has its faults.

[Northern Star]

.

 

Every acquisition has its faults.[/b]

 

Exactly. I am beginning to wonder if the crying out for a power bat is something of an overreaction, since we won the division without one. Sure, it wouldn't hurt - except for any talent we have to give up to acquire it - but I am not convinced it's such a pressing need that DD needs to go overboard in obtaining one. Power, like ace pitching, costs a ridiculous premium nowadays.

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly. I am beginning to wonder if the crying out for a power bat is something of an overreaction, since we won the division without one. Sure, it wouldn't hurt - except for any talent we have to give up to acquire it - but I am not convinced it's such a pressing need that DD needs to go overboard in obtaining one. Power, like ace pitching, costs a ridiculous premium nowadays.

 

It's an area in which we could clearly stand to improve, I think. Abreu might be a really good get.

[Northern Star]

It's an area in which we could clearly stand to improve, I think. Abreu might be a really good get.

 

But not at the price of ripping holes in the roster elsewhere by what we have to give up.

[Northern Star]

I mean, tell me, what is a reasonable price for Abreu? What would it take to get him?

[Bellhorn04]

But not at the price of ripping holes in the roster elsewhere by what we have to give up.

 

Yep. J D Martinez would only cost money, so there's a good case for that...