2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[OH FOY]

Seam McAdam says today the Sox have 21 million left to sign JD Martinez this year. Other wise they will be penalized 10 spots in the Draft, and lose $500,000, in International Pool money. Edited February 18, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Natick to NC]

Seam McAdam says today the Sox have 21 million left to sign JD Martinez. Other wise they will be penalized 10 spots in the Draft, and lose $500,000, in International Pool money.

 

Ok so let's figure this out then ...I think they need 27 ...how do they free up an additional 6 to 8 million.What shoe drops or several shoes drop the next 24 to 48 hours ??

[fxkatt]

Hosmer isn't coming here. Ever been to San Diego? Trust me; he's staying put for 8 years. ....

 

I know that would be my decision, no matter if I was worth more than 13 mill or not. A very livable city.

[OH FOY]

Let Martinez wait. Don't need him anyway. 2 Months from now he'll be happy at 20 Million a year. He's another one that doesn't want to go against next years FA's.

[harmony]

Hosmer will be traded in year 2 to either us or someone with a more hitter friendly park ...SD is Siberia for Hosmers bat .Hosmer will be playing for a terrible team and want out after this year ...stupid choice by both agent and player and team for fit.

The jilted suitor post.

 

For what it's worth, last year Fenway Park ranked 26th in home runs surrendered while San Diego's Petco Park ranked 29th:

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2017/sort/HRFactor

[moonslav59]

Seam McAdam says today the Sox have 21 million left to sign JD Martinez this year. Other wise they will be penalized 10 spots in the Draft, and lose $500,000, in International Pool money.

 

I'm not sure where he's getting that number from. The big penalty level is $40M over the limit, counting player benefits payments.

 

cots has us at $205.3M before Nunez and JDM. If we spend $7.7M on Nunez per year, we'll be at $213M before JD with the heavy penalty limit at $237M. That leaves $24M with no wiggle room for in season additions.

 

We could trade or Holt ($2M) or maybe HRam (saving possibly $4-8M).

 

[OH FOY]

BSJ is the best site for Sox news. You should buy it.

[Natick to NC]

I'm not sure where he's getting that number from. The big penalty level is $40M over the limit, counting player benefits payments.

 

cots has us at $205.3M before Nunez and JDM. If we spend $7.7M on Nunez per year, we'll be at $213M before JD with the heavy penalty limit at $237M. That leaves $24M with no wiggle room for in season additions.

 

We could trade or Holt ($2M) or maybe HRam (saving possibly $4-8M).

 

 

That sounds really good with Holt !!! How about 2 million more though Hanley is here unless someone loses there mind .

[fxkatt]

How much money do we have left in terms of the 237 mill max? I assume we're around 210 mill right now. (not sure what Nunez got)

 

In other words, is it JD and someone else or just JD??

[Bellhorn04]

How much money do we have left in terms of the 237 mill max? I assume we're around 210 mill right now. (not sure what Nunez got)

 

In other words, is it JD and someone else or just JD??

 

Looks like the 2018 tax value for Nunez is 6 million.

 

It's 4 million for 2018 and a player option for 2019 for $4 million with a $2 million buyout. So he is guaranteed $6 million.

[Spudboy]

Speaking of Nunez, I just saw a video of him talking to the media. He seems like a humble and likable guy. This is the type of guy I want on my team. A gamer who is a good person.

 

That engenders my respect and trust.

 

I hope he has a great season.

[harmony]

We could trade or Holt ($2M) or maybe HRam (saving possibly $4-8M).

What is the trade value of Brock Holt, a utility player who turns 30 years old in June after posting an fWAR of a negative 0.9 in 164 plate appearances last year?

 

Bear with me, but Holt matches up with Seattle utility player Taylor Motter, who turns 29 years old in September after posting an fWAR of a negative 0.6 in 280 plate appearances last year.

 

Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects 2018 WAR of 0.9 for Holt and 0.8 for Motter. ZiPS projects 2018 WAR of 0.6 in 385 plate appearances for Holt and 1.2 in 461 plate appearances for Motter.

 

Motter lacks Holt's All Star pedigree but the most significant difference in trade value is that Holt is owed $2 million in the second of his three arbitration years while Motter is owed the league minimum in the second of his six years of team control. Motter and Holt each have one option remaining.

 

If one WAR is worth about $8 million, Holt might represent value at $2 million, but my point is that most teams have players who can provide similar production at the league minimum salary.

 

Motter is not guaranteed a slot on Seattle's Opening Day roster:

 

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-seattle-mariners/

[notin]

I'm not sure where he's getting that number from. The big penalty level is $40M over the limit, counting player benefits payments.

 

cots has us at $205.3M before Nunez and JDM. If we spend $7.7M on Nunez per year, we'll be at $213M before JD with the heavy penalty limit at $237M. That leaves $24M with no wiggle room for in season additions.

 

We could trade or Holt ($2M) or maybe HRam (saving possibly $4-8M).

 

 

Since Holt is still in arbitration, can't he be released at some point this spring with the Sox only paying 30 days worth of salary, much like the Rays did with Dickerson?

[cp176]

Speaking of Nunez, I just saw a video of him talking to the media. He seems like a humble and likable guy. This is the type of guy I want on my team. A gamer who is a good person.

 

That engenders my respect and trust.

 

I hope he has a great season.

 

That is my take on things as well. I know that this a tough crowd to say this in but here goes - I'd rather lose with good, honest, hard working guys as opposed to win with a bunch of dinks. Inevitably, those links will let you down.

[Natick to NC]

Since Holt is still in arbitration, can't he be released at some point this spring with the Sox only paying 30 days worth of salary, much like the Rays did with Dickerson?

 

Brilliant if True ????? I know we keep saying JBJ is here to stay awhile ....but maybe just maybe another deal in works ?????

Edited February 18, 2018 by Natick to NC

[Kimmi]

Price is saying the right things this spring. It's encouraging.

 

One small clarification - I think it's Olney who made those comments about JDM signing with us, not Price.

 

You are correct. I read that incorrectly.

[Kimmi]

Another tweet from Red Sox Stats

 

So JD, 5/$115M, 27/26/opt out/24/20/18. Done? Good.

 

I don't know about the year to year break down, but the total of $110 - $115 sounds about right to me. Even though Dombrowski would be outbidding himself, I think it's a small enough sacrifice to make for JD to feel like the Red Sox were at least working with him a little bit. It would go a long way in making JD feel less bitter.

 

In another tweet from Red Sox Stats, Castellano stated that he spoke to JD, and JD said that no team has offered him more than $100 mil.

[Kimmi]

Nunez signing is official.

 

Woot! And at a very reasonable price.

[Kimmi]

Looks like the 2018 tax value for Nunez is 6 million.

 

It's 4 million for 2018 and a player option for 2019 for $4 million with a $2 million buyout. So he is guaranteed $6 million.

 

This is what Speier writes about it:

 

Here’s the skinny: Nunez is guaranteed $6 million (the $4 million for 2018 along with the $2 million buyout). Under the Collective Bargaining Agreement, player option years are treated as guaranteed. So, for purposes of calculating the team’s payroll for luxury tax purposes, the Nunez deal is treated as a two-year, $8 million deal with an average annual value of $4 million.

 

If Nunez opts out of the contract after one year, the Red Sox would get hit with the difference between what they actually paid Nunez ($6 million) and the number that they were charged for luxury tax purposes ($8 million over two years). However, the difference between those figures – $2 million – will be assessed as part of the calculation of the team’s 2019 payroll for luxury tax purposes, rather than its 2018 number.

[Kimmi]

Speaking of Nunez, I just saw a video of him talking to the media. He seems like a humble and likable guy. This is the type of guy I want on my team. A gamer who is a good person.

 

That engenders my respect and trust.

 

I hope he has a great season.

 

I think he is good for the team, even if he doesn't hit like he did for us last year.

 

From everything I've heard, he's great for the clubhouse.

[Kimmi]

Since Holt is still in arbitration, can't he be released at some point this spring with the Sox only paying 30 days worth of salary, much like the Rays did with Dickerson?

 

This is what I've read. His salary is not guaranteed if he does not make the team.

[Kimmi]

That is my take on things as well. I know that this a tough crowd to say this in but here goes - I'd rather lose with good, honest, hard working guys as opposed to win with a bunch of dinks. Inevitably, those links will let you down.

 

Do we have players on our team that you consider to be dinks?

[notin]

Brilliant if True ????? I know we keep saying JBJ is here to stay awhile ....but maybe just maybe another deal in works ?????

 

JBJ is staying. DD has already turned down multiple offers...

[notin]

This is what I've read. His salary is not guaranteed if he does not make the team.

 

This puts Holt at risk for DFA as well. Although his option might give him a slight advantage over Marrero and Brentz. ..

[Bellhorn04]

This is what Speier writes about it:

 

Here’s the skinny: Nunez is guaranteed $6 million (the $4 million for 2018 along with the $2 million buyout). Under the Collective Bargaining Agreement, player option years are treated as guaranteed. So, for purposes of calculating the team’s payroll for luxury tax purposes, the Nunez deal is treated as a two-year, $8 million deal with an average annual value of $4 million.

 

If Nunez opts out of the contract after one year, the Red Sox would get hit with the difference between what they actually paid Nunez ($6 million) and the number that they were charged for luxury tax purposes ($8 million over two years). However, the difference between those figures – $2 million – will be assessed as part of the calculation of the team’s 2019 payroll for luxury tax purposes, rather than its 2018 number.

 

Cool. A $4 million AAV is nice.

[jacksonianmarch]

This is a glorified 1 year deal. But Dd saved $2 mil AAV by using the option opt out money. Smart

[Natick to NC]

Have to hand it to Dave ...the man absolutely established himself all over again as a GM who will wait until the deal is right and not just bowl over the competition like his long history had shown ...Dave changed his stripes .,evolved .Happy for him .But may turn sour on a dime If he doesn't hit the target . Edited February 18, 2018 by Natick to NC

[moonslav59]

What is the trade value of Brock Holt, a utility player who turns 30 years old in June after posting an fWAR of a negative 0.9 in 164 plate appearances last year?

 

Bear with me, but Holt matches up with Seattle utility player Taylor Motter, who turns 29 years old in September after posting an fWAR of a negative 0.6 in 280 plate appearances last year.

 

Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects 2018 WAR of 0.9 for Holt and 0.8 for Motter. ZiPS projects 2018 WAR of 0.6 in 385 plate appearances for Holt and 1.2 in 461 plate appearances for Motter.

 

Motter lacks Holt's All Star pedigree but the most significant difference in trade value is that Holt is owed $2 million in the second of his three arbitration years while Motter is owed the league minimum in the second of his six years of team control. Motter and Holt each have one option remaining.

 

If one WAR is worth about $8 million, Holt might represent value at $2 million, but my point is that most teams have players who can provide similar production at the league minimum salary.

 

Motter is not guaranteed a slot on Seattle's Opening Day roster:

 

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-seattle-mariners/

 

I'm not saying we'll get anything for Holt, except salary relief and maybe a single A prospect.

 

DFA is also an option, if nobody wants Holt via trade.

[Natick to NC]

The jilted suitor post.

 

For what it's worth, last year Fenway Park ranked 26th in home runs surrendered while San Diego's Petco Park ranked 29th:

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2017/sort/HRFactor

 

Harmony you're a smart person ...so you know there's alittle insanity in most sane decisions when our mind sees something that most don't see.I will wear it .

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not saying we'll get anything for Holt, except salary relief and maybe a single A prospect.

 

DFA is also an option, if nobody wants Holt via trade.

 

FWIW my suspicion is that Marrero would be let go before Holt. Mainly because of some comments I read about Holt by DD. He seems to really like him and thinks he's all over the concussion/vertigo stuff.