2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[moonslav59]

Name a GM who doesn't have to overspend after 7 or 8 years of drafting 30th or lower.

 

No GM goes 7-8 years straight drafting 20 or lower.

 

Maybe even 10 or lower.

[a700hitter]

Theo's strength was never ponying up big money for guys like Darvish. Any GM can do that if they have a budget.

 

Theo's strength was finding guys like Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks and getting them for essentially nothing.

 

 

 

Can Dombrowski do that?

My point wasn't that he builds his pitching staffs on the free agent market, but that he builds his staff on the open market from outside his own organization, Arrieta and Hendricks were not products of the Cubs system. Theo has not been very successful at drafting and developing pitchers. He builds from outside his organization.

[a700hitter]

I think Theo tries to use a balanced approach. Drafts, trades, free agents.

Drafts? How many pitchers has Theo drafted who have been good starters?

[Bellhorn04]

No GM goes 7-8 years straight drafting 20 or lower.

 

Maybe even 10 or lower.

 

Please explain this.

[Bellhorn04]

Drafts? How many pitchers has Theo drafted who have been good starters?

 

None, you're right about that, I was just talking about his overall approach.

[Bellhorn04]

Theo has always had issues with the back end of the build.

 

I have to call nonsense on this. Let's just recap the record:

 

15 years as GM

3 World Series wins

7 LCS appearances

9 playoff appearances

[jacksonianmarch]

Let me clarify. Theo is near or at the top of the pantheon of GM’s. He won in 2004 with an inherited club. He basically put the finishing touches and they won it all. His build started in 03 and the fruit was born in 07. Come the end of his sox tenure, the vets started fading and he shelled out big money to stay on top. Wasn’t worth it. He built the Cubs when he got there. He reached the pinnacle 15-17 and now he has to keep it going after decimating the farm and spending big. It’s called propping the window open. They’ve got 1-2 years before they’re upside down again, but I’m sure Cubs fans won’t care

[Bellhorn04]

Let me clarify. Theo is near or at the top of the pantheon of GM’s. He won in 2004 with an inherited club. He basically put the finishing touches and they won it all. His build started in 03 and the fruit was born in 07. Come the end of his sox tenure, the vets started fading and he shelled out big money to stay on top. Wasn’t worth it. He built the Cubs when he got there. He reached the pinnacle 15-17 and now he has to keep it going after decimating the farm and spending big. It’s called propping the window open. They’ve got 1-2 years before they’re upside down again, but I’m sure Cubs fans won’t care

 

Maybe the 'back end of the build' is an 'issue' for every GM, even the best, because that's just the way it works.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Cubs peaked in 16, clearly, but last year they didn’t get the step forward from their kids and the older guys looked really old. Darvish will help keep the window open, but the Cubs have a downward trajectory. They’ll crash harder than the sox

[jacksonianmarch]

Maybe the 'back end of the build' is an 'issue' for every GM, even the best, because that's just the way it works.

 

It’s more dealing with temptation. You win a title, you wanna stay on top. Staying disciplined is important. Decimating your farm and spending big is how you close a window. He did that with Boston and he’s done it again with Chicago. The thing about Boston that he did do was leave the lower levels stocked and they all hit at the same time after he left. That’s rare

[Bellhorn04]

It’s more dealing with temptation. You win a title, you wanna stay on top. Staying disciplined is important. Decimating your farm and spending big is how you close a window. He did that with Boston and he’s done it again with Chicago.

 

But you're the same guy who has been telling us over and over how we have to capitalize on our window.

[jacksonianmarch]

I’ve been saying that since the sox traded for Sale, Pom, and Thornburg. Once you did that, your window was declared and you might as well maximize it

[notin]

Let me clarify. Theo is near or at the top of the pantheon of GM’s. He won in 2004 with an inherited club. He basically put the finishing touches and they won it all. His build started in 03 and the fruit was born in 07. Come the end of his sox tenure, the vets started fading and he shelled out big money to stay on top. Wasn’t worth it. He built the Cubs when he got there. He reached the pinnacle 15-17 and now he has to keep it going after decimating the farm and spending big. It’s called propping the window open. They’ve got 1-2 years before they’re upside down again, but I’m sure Cubs fans won’t care

 

Epsstein won in 2004 with a largely inherited MLB team (but he did add Ortiz) and no farm system whatsoever. He built the farm while winning and was not the guy who decimated it.

[jacksonianmarch]

By dealing for AdGon, you lost some good prospects (who turned into nothing, but who knows what happens if they stayed)The top end was either in the bigs for a bit or low minors. Hence, the farm was thin. Just look at the guys you graduated from 04-10. Youk, Pedey, Paps, Buch, Lester, etc. it wasn’t til Bogey came on in 13 that the farm showed up again.

[Bellhorn04]

By dealing for AdGon, you lost some good prospects (who turned into nothing, but who knows what happens if they stayed)

 

We lost Rizzo...I assume you realize that but you're not being very clear.

[jacksonianmarch]

I totally f***ing blanked on Rizzo. Wow

[Natick to NC]

I totally f***ing blanked on Rizzo. Wow

 

Wonder if Theo would entertain a blockbuster next offseason for The RIZ

[moonslav59]

Please explain this.

 

It's obvious.

 

No team in MLB ever goes 7+ years winning so much they never get a pick above #20 (let alone #30 as you claimed).

 

Hence, there is no GM to meet your sample size criteria.

[moonslav59]

I’ve been saying that since the sox traded for Sale, Pom, and Thornburg. Once you did that, your window was declared and you might as well maximize it

 

That's how I view it. Once you go all out, don't play it halfway.

[Bellhorn04]

It's obvious.

 

No team in MLB ever goes 7+ years winning so much they never get a pick above #20 (let alone #30 as you claimed).

 

Hence, there is no GM to meet your sample size criteria.

 

It was notin who originally questioned this.

 

But I'm questioning it too.

 

The Yankees made the playoffs every year from 1995 to 2012 except 2008, and they won 89 games in 2008.

 

So yes, it's possible to go a long time without getting a pick above #20 (unless, under the old rules, you got it from losing a free agent.)

[mvp 78]

I’ve been saying that since the sox traded for Sale, Pom, and Thornburg. Once you did that, your window was declared and you might as well maximize it

You never said s*** about the Travis trade. Get out of here.

[cp176]

You never said s*** about the Travis trade. Get out of here.

 

Hey is that one of those Bye Felicias for Reggie?

[moonslav59]

It was notin who originally questioned this.

 

But I'm questioning it too.

 

The Yankees made the playoffs every year from 1995 to 2012 except 2008, and they won 89 games in 2008.

 

So yes, it's possible to go a long time without getting a pick above #20 (unless, under the old rules, you got it from losing a free agent.)

 

The Yanks won all those year, in large part, to outspending other teams by huge margins during a time when the system was rigged to help rich teams score great draft picks with later picks due to "signability" issues. The international market was also totally unregulated.

 

Yes, they had some great in system infusion along the way for sure and couldn't have won without it, but they continuously filled holes with super costly free agents.

 

It's only recently that the Yanks started reducing their budget and having fire sales to rebuild their farm.

 

[OH FOY]

The Yanks won all those year, in large part, to outspending other teams by huge margins during a time when the system was rigged to help rich teams score great draft picks with later picks due to "signability" issues. The international market was also totally unregulated.

 

Yes, they had some great in system infusion along the way for sure and couldn't have won without it, but they continuously filled holes with super costly free agents.

 

It's only recently that the Yanks started reducing their budget and having fire sales to rebuild their farm.

 

 

What years you talking about?

[Bellhorn04]

The Yanks won all those year, in large part, to outspending other teams by huge margins during a time when the system was rigged to help rich teams score great draft picks with later picks due to "signability" issues. The international market was also totally unregulated.

 

Yes, they had some great in system infusion along the way for sure and couldn't have won without it, but they continuously filled holes with super costly free agents.

 

It's only recently that the Yanks started reducing their budget and having fire sales to rebuild their farm.

 

 

Let's try this again. You said: "No GM goes 7-8 years straight drafting 20 or lower."

 

I questioned the validity of this statement and that's why I pointed out the Yankees record for 1995-2012.

[OH FOY]

Jeter, Posada, Williams, Rivera, Petite, were the backbone of the those Yankee teams all Farm, some good Trades too, O'Neil, Brosius, Clemens, cant think all of them. Got some good Relievers from some Trades. The years they really dominated. Edited February 11, 2018 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Let's try this again. You said: "No GM goes 7-8 years straight drafting 20 or lower."

 

I questioned the validity of this statement and that's why I pointed out the Yankees record for 1995-2012.

 

I thought there was no current GM that has gone 7-8 straight years drafting lower than 20 every year. I guess the sample size is one. My bad.

 

The initial statement was drafting 30th or lower.

 

By the way, the Yanks went 7 straight years drafting below #20 (from 1997 to 2004. They also went 8 straight from 2006 (21st pick with Ian Kennedy) to 2014 with very low picks, but the farm was mostly built with fire sales and comp picks.

 

The Yanks drafted 1st in '91, drafted Jeters 6th in '92 (not with a pick lower than 20). They drafted...

13th in '93

20th in '96

17th in '05

no first rd in 2014

16th in '15

18th in '16

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the Yanks lose a few first round picks due to signing type A or QO free agents? If so, I'm not sure one should use that as an excuse for having low picks due to winning too much.

 

 

[harmony]

It was notin who originally questioned this.

 

But I'm questioning it too.

 

The Yankees made the playoffs every year from 1995 to 2012 except 2008, and they won 89 games in 2008.

 

So yes, it's possible to go a long time without getting a pick above #20 (unless, under the old rules, you got it from losing a free agent.)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=NYY&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round

[moonslav59]

Jeter, Posada, Williams, Rivera, Petite, were the backbone of the those Yankee teams all Farm, some good Trades too, O'Neil, Brosius, Clemens, cant think all of them. Got some good Relievers from some Trades. The years they really dominated.

 

Jeter was not taken with a below 20 pick.

Rivera and Williams were signed as an amateur FA.

Yes, Clemens and others were acquired by trade not free agency, but their salaries were prohibitively high for most teams and outright salary dumps in other cases.

 

I'm not arguing the Yankee farm did not help them win. I'm arguing they didn't build great farms with long stretches of picks below #20.

 

The system is changed now. Let's see what winning GMs can do under these changed conditions.

 

[Natick to NC]

Redsox ,Patriots ,Celtics are all trending way down .Boston sports after today after the debacle and humiliating loss first in Super Bowl and now Pauls jersey retirement and Redsox refusing to right last years wrong and pussy foot around with another power hitter ...Boston has zero buzz no excitement just a bunch of teams and management kicking the can down the road ...done spending money and time caring when they don't now .Ainge and Dombo asleep at the wheel now .Redsox are like watching paint dry zero personality no leadership just another meh team ...they are well behind Houston well behind LA well behind the Cubs well behind LA Dodgers well behind Angels be lucky to get a WC this year ....terrible decisions the last two years . Edited February 11, 2018 by Natick to NC