2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[MADSTORK]

Save the smoke for a run at Harper in 18

[moonslav59]

Save the smoke for a run at Harper in 18

 

..and when the Yanks outbid us, then what?

[MADSTORK]

..and when the Yanks outbid us, then what?

 

LOL You are more than likely correct.

 

The Sox need to get back to the style of team building that won them rings in all 3 world series appearances. Dirt dog players!

 

Just say no to Stanton. The deal more than likely will be similar to a Pujols deal at the end and that really will handcuff a team. Ridiculous thought in any conversation. Hosmer, Santana talk is encouraging.

[moonslav59]

LOL You are more than likely correct.

 

The Sox need to get back to the style of team building that won them rings in all 3 world series appearances. Dirt dog players!

 

Just say no to Stanton. The deal more than likely will be similar to a Pujols deal at the end and that really will handcuff a team. Ridiculous thought in any conversation. Hosmer, Santana talk is encouraging.

 

Hosmer is the worst choice of all the big contract choices.

[Spudboy]

I'll say it again, Moon is absolutely correct in his opinion ( or at least my opinion is the same ) that Hosmer is the wrong guy for this team.

 

While I would love to have Abreu I doubt that we can send the WS the chips they need in prospect form so we are left with the mid-tier dregs. I am leaning toward Morrison but would prefer a rightly power bat.

 

Santana sounds nice with switch hitting and high obp but I just don't think the upgrade will be worth the cost. Better than it would likely be with Hosmer just still not enough.

 

If we end up with Moreland I will laugh.

[moonslav59]

Remember when we needed a 3Bman and signed the "best one available"?

 

Pablo.

 

I'm not saying Hosmer is the next Pablo, but signing a mediocre 1Bman with no power upgrade over Moreland to a 5+ years deal has boneheaded written all over it.

[Spudboy]

Remember when we needed a 3Bman and signed the "best one available"?

 

Pablo.

 

I'm not saying Hosmer is the next Pablo, but signing a mediocre 1Bman with no power upgrade over Moreland to a 5+ years deal has boneheaded written all over it.

 

Amen to that.

[notin]

Remember when we needed a 3Bman and signed the "best one available"?

 

Pablo.

 

I'm not saying Hosmer is the next Pablo, but signing a mediocre 1Bman with no power upgrade over Moreland to a 5+ years deal has boneheaded written all over it.

 

I'm no Hosmer advocate, but at least he still has enough years in his prime left to justify the 6/7 year deal he'll get.

 

He's a good player, but not really the guy the Sox need...

[notin]

Save the smoke for a run at Harper in 18

 

The Yankees are getting under the cap this year for exactly that reason. Think we outbid them?

 

If the goal is a post-2018 free agent, then just sign Yonder Alonso now and put him to work convincing his brother-in-law to come to Boston. ..

[Bellhorn04]

Just say no to Stanton. The deal more than likely will be similar to a Pujols deal at the end and that really will handcuff a team. Ridiculous thought in any conversation.

 

Except there's a 4.5 year age difference between Pujols at the start of his 10 year deal, and Stanton at the start of 2018.

 

Pujols turned 32 before he played his first game for the Angels. Now that was ridiculous!

[Bellhorn04]

The Yankees are getting under the cap this year for exactly that reason. Think we outbid them?

 

Man, what has the world come to when we actually trust the Yankees to be fully truthful about their intentions?

[moonslav59]

Except there's a 4.5 year age difference between Pujols at the start of his 10 year deal, and Stanton at the start of 2018.

 

Pujols turned 32 before he played his first game for the Angels. Now that was ridiculous!

 

Exactly.

 

I ask this, would Stanton get $250M/7 on the open free agent market this winter?

 

Since the luxury cost is just $250M/10, then to me, his last 3-4 years are basically free or "gravy", if he does well.

 

Much of his contract is within prime or near prime.

 

The question to me remains, "What's the return, if we pay his whole contract?"

[Slasher9]

LOL You are more than likely correct.

 

The Sox need to get back to the style of team building that won them rings in all 3 world series appearances. Dirt dog players!

 

Just say no to Stanton. The deal more than likely will be similar to a Pujols deal at the end and that really will handcuff a team. Ridiculous thought in any conversation. Hosmer, Santana talk is encouraging.

 

there is nothing similar about the Pujols and Stanton deals.

[Slasher9]

if we sign Hosmer DD needs to go.

[moonslav59]

if we sign Hosmer DD needs to go.

 

I'll be super pissed, but I'm not ready to go that far.

 

Plus, many of the moves I was against have worked out well, so far (not that I didn't expect Kimbrel & Pom to do well).

[Slasher9]

I'll be super pissed, but I'm not ready to go that far.

 

Plus, many of the moves I was against have worked out well, so far (not that I didn't expect Kimbrel & Pom to do well).

 

price & hosmer will be more egregious than panda & HanRam

[jacksonianmarch]

Rays considering blowing it all up. That means Dickerson, Archer, Longoria and others hitting the market if they do. Intriguing to say the least

[mvp 78]

if we sign Hosmer DD needs to go.

 

What if he gets Stanton too?

[mvp 78]

Rays considering blowing it all up. That means Dickerson, Archer, Longoria and others hitting the market if they do. Intriguing to say the least

 

Archer is the only guy I'd be interested in. Maybe replace JBJ with Kiermaier. Longoria is on the back 9 and would cost too much.

[Slasher9]

What if he gets Stanton too?

 

throw in Cueto and you had me at "what".....

[Bellhorn04]

FWIW Dombrowski sounds like he's not very interested in trading away players like JBJ, or prospects either...sounds like any major acquisitions will come by way of free agency...FWIW

[Slasher9]

FWIW Dombrowski sounds like he's not very interested in trading away players like JBJ, or prospects either...s

 

that doesnt sound like the DD i know. perhaps Commander Data has reigned him in again?

[mvp 78]

that doesnt sound like the DD i know. perhaps Commander Data has reigned him in again?

 

Obviously, if this offseason is a success, it has to be thanks to Vlad Dracul, not to Desperate Dave!

[notin]

Archer is the only guy I'd be interested in. Maybe replace JBJ with Kiermaier. Longoria is on the back 9 and would cost too much.

 

Archer is probably more than the Sox can afford. Certainly other teams can top the Sox offer.

 

Dickerson has an OPS+ of 113 and 51 HRs in 2 seasons in Tampa. While not a prime target, he's not a bad option...

[notin]

JD Martinez' asking price is $210mill over 7 years. That's a lot of money for a guy who will probably suck in 3 years. Save the cash and give a mega-extension to Betts.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/jd-martinez-rumor-200-million-asking-price.html

 

Carlos Santana looks better by the day...

[notin]

price & hosmer will be more egregious than panda & HanRam

 

Unless Price returns to form next year.

 

Hosmer is the unexciting option for people who don't believe in the cliff. If you like Martinez, his peak years will be better than Hosmer, but he will be into decline by the time the Sox key players are all ready for free agency. Hosmer will be the better player 3 to 4 years down the line. Martinez better immediately, but not for as long...

[notin]

The real downside to Hosmer is how many times he gets auto-corrected to "Hoser"

[moonslav59]

JD Martinez' asking price is $210mill over 7 years. That's a lot of money for a guy who will probably suck in 3 years. Save the cash and give a mega-extension to Betts.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/jd-martinez-rumor-200-million-asking-price.html

 

Carlos Santana looks better by the day...

 

Santana is a true switch hitter- equally good vs both hands.

 

He won't get mega years or mega bucks, so he seems like the safest choice. Signing him might also leave enough money for one more significant signing or acquisition or two mediocre ones.

 

Maybe...

 

Santana

2 from: Cobb, Dyson or Shaw (or the like)

 

[S5Dewey]

That doesn't sound like you, Dewey.

 

LOL.

 

BTW, it's about "ranking" players not "rating" them.

 

I'm fine with anyone rating a player based on observation or their own chosen data, but when you compare them to other players by ranking them or saying they are "average" or top 10, then I don't see how anyone can realistically do that solely by observation,

when they do not see everyone play enough games to form that opinion.

 

Take a guy like Joey Votto. I've only seen him play in 8 games over his whole career. He has a .791 OPS vs us with zero HRs and 1 RBI. Would I be justified in saying he's a below average 1Bman going just by my own personal observations?

 

I guess so, right?

 

No. I'd look at the numbers and see he's one of the best 1Bmen in MLB.

 

 

Look, this whole thing started over Bogey being called an "good" or "average" defensive SS. My observations would call him below average. I'd guess he's bottom 10 without looking at the data. The data shows he's just below average on UZR/150 and the worst on DRS. I'm not trying to be condescending by saying I think those who label him average or above average based on observations are wrong. For one, my observations are different from there's , so it's not just about data. Plus, the data shows he is not average, if you use both UZR/150 and DRS. The fielding bible also has never ranked Bogey in the top 15. That's based on observations, too.

 

Probably you're right in a perfect world where everyone sees every other player and then ranks/rates them according to what they see. However, I don't need to see every game in baseball to know that a certain player "sucks' or that another one is outstanding. I've seen enough baseball so I know the difference.

 

IMHO we sometimes get too wrapped around the axle with terminology. In the real world there is only one "average" SS in baseball, or at least that's what WAR would tell us. If I'm going to say someone is worse than average at SS what I mean is that I've seen a lot of SS play the game and my eyes tell me that given a decent sample size (a half dozen games?) I can say that this guy is worse than most. Surprisingly my eyes usually agree with the stats.

If i say he's average then I mean he's "meh". He may be slightly better or worse than the statistical average, but on the whole he's "meh". I will confess for the benefit of the stat geeks that I don't have perfectly defined cutoffs between "sucks", "meh", and "outstanding". It's like pornography. I can't define it but I know it when I see it.

[moonslav59]

Probably you're right in a perfect world where everyone sees every other player and then ranks/rates them according to what they see. However, I don't need to see every game in baseball to know that a certain player "sucks' or that another one is outstanding. I've seen enough baseball so I know the difference.

 

IMHO we sometimes get too wrapped around the axle with terminology. In the real world there is only one "average" SS in baseball, or at least that's what WAR would tell us. If I'm going to say someone is worse than average at SS what I mean is that I've seen a lot of SS play the game and my eyes tell me that given a decent sample size (a half dozen games?) I can say that this guy is worse than most. Surprisingly my eyes usually agree with the stats.

If i say he's average then I mean he's "meh". He may be slightly better or worse than the statistical average, but on the whole he's "meh". I will confess for the benefit of the stat geeks that I don't have perfectly defined cutoffs between "sucks", "meh", and "outstanding". It's like pornography. I can't define it but I know it when I see it.

 

I hear what you're saying, and to some extent even one of the worst MLB starting SS is probably a better defender than any of us ever played with.

 

I can see someone calling all SSs between 11-20 "average", and I suppose one could push the envelope and claim Bogey is number 20, and therefor "average", but my observations tell me otherwise, and the combination of UZR/150, DRS and other data and rankings tell me he is not even the 20th best out of 30.

 

I keep seeing better plays by opposing teams' shortstops, and the numbers back me up.

 

What bothers me more than anything is that I don't see him getting any better. It looked like he started to improve a little in 2015, but he's done worse since then on defense.

 

I don't look at Bogey and see Jeter or some other really horrible defensive SS. Like Jeter, he makes most of the sure plays and doesn't look uncoordinated or unathletic. Maybe that's what keeps some people thinking he's halfway decent or even better.

 

Maybe he can show some growth in 2018. We may need it, if Devers doesn't improve on defense at 3B.