A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[Spudboy]

I learned that the best team does not always win back when I was in high school.

 

We had a basketball team that was ranked very high ( maybe top 6 or so ) going into the state tourney. Our team was f***ing stacked with two HS All Americans and a lot of primo athletes. We had beaten the top ranked team in the state at mid season and had an excellent record playing one of the most difficult schedules in eastern Mass.

 

Low and behold in comes Dedham High from a weak ass league and they pound the s*** out of us in the first round.

 

I have not expected this team to be great this season. And I don't see them going deep in the playoffs.

 

But anything can happen in a short series. I would not bet against them if I were a betting man.

 

I think this is Cleveland's year.

[moonslav59]

Great game! If Porcello could somehow keep this up...

 

I loved seeing Vaz up second. JF is starting to show what I've been hoping to see for years. (I may have to begin reviewing my position to can his ass... I said "may"...)

 

Betts with 2 hits. In his last 10 games, he's had 3 hits 3 times and 2 hits once. If he can heat up at just the right time...

 

Seems this team is coming together at just about the right time.

 

[Spudboy]

Great game! If Porcello could somehow keep this up...

 

I loved seeing Vaz up second. JF is starting to show what I've been hoping to see for years. (I may have to begin reviewing my position to can his ass... I said "may"...)

 

Betts with 2 hits. In his last 10 games, he's had 3 hits 3 times and 2 hits once. If he can heat up at just the right time...

 

Seems this team is coming together at just about the right time.

 

 

Dont worry. Everyone will remember that you said that you have changed your mind and that you want Farrell to get an extension at all costs.

[moonslav59]

Dont worry. Everyone will remember that you said that you have changed your mind and that you want Farrell to get an extension at all costs.

 

I'll never say that.

 

I'm usually a believer in the saying that "Leopards don't change their spots," but I hope JF gives me reason to rethink that philosophy.

 

I'm not afraid to say that I have seen fewer blunders over the last few weeks and a willingness to change line-up to appease our better hitters. It doesn't mean I'm walking back on my beliefs. It just means things change in baseball, sometimes on a dime.

 

I still think JF is an idiot when it comes to anything other than pitching. The recent ample size is small, and batting Vaz second today, could have been random luck.

 

I do not think JF will be fired this winter, even if we get swept again, so we'll have a large enough sample size to see if JF can change his spots.

 

I hope he does, because that will mean we have a better chance of winning.

 

[cp176]

I learned that the best team does not always win back when I was in high school.

 

We had a basketball team that was ranked very high ( maybe top 6 or so ) going into the state tourney. Our team was f***ing stacked with two HS All Americans and a lot of primo athletes. We had beaten the top ranked team in the state at mid season and had an excellent record playing one of the most difficult schedules in eastern Mass.

 

Low and behold in comes Dedham High from a weak ass league and they pound the s*** out of us in the first round.

 

I have not expected this team to be great this season. And I don't see them going deep in the playoffs.

 

But anything can happen in a short series. I would not bet against them if I were a betting man.

 

I think this is Cleveland's year.

 

It is the beauty of the games we play isn't it. While we are on the subject how about Salty's comments about analytics last night. Just another professional athlete who doesn't know what he is talking about. Into ghosts too!

[moonslav59]

Haven't you heard?

 

Only people who have played the game truly know what it's about.

[S5Dewey]

Haven't you heard?

 

Only people who have played the game truly know what it's about.

 

Now c'mon. Has anyone really said that? IIRC most of us are saying that there's room for both stats and game experience, and discounting either of them offhand is a mistake.

[SoxHop]

One of their big plusses is that they do not quit. On occasion they do make some seemingly silly mistakes, but you still are going to have to beat them. They don't hang their heads. They are giving us all some good entertainment. I know by now how we all feel about Farrell and he puzzles me too but his team plays hard. Someone is doing something right here in addition to the players. With the injuries to their pitching staff that they have dealt with this year, I tend to think that they have over achieved. In a perfect case scenario, we would have had Sale, Price (the good one), Porcello (at least sort of close to last year Porcello), Pomeranz, E-Rod, Wright (remember him), with Smith and Thornburg. My hindsight meter says that we would have been out of Yankee reach by now if things had worked out the way we hoped they would.

 

I almost think this is the post of the year for me. Thanks CP. This team just hangs around. They can't bludgeon another team. They just wont go down without a fight. They will scrap for runs, get to a tie, and then beat you in extra innings. You think you have them on the ropes, and one of the outfielders comes up with a great grab to ruin the rally. You see an opportunity to score, and a bullpen guy comes in and closes the door. You're up a run or two on them, and they get a short rally and tie it.

 

These guys don't go down......... it must be maddening to play them.

[OH FOY]

Interesting stat from the 7th inning and later the Sox rank 6th with a .252 avg. and last in HRS in the Majors. If you go by OPS they are 20th. Correction not 21st.

4th in runs scored, is the HR's important or the RBI's?

RBI's the Sox are ranked 5th in the Majors after the 7th inning.

Edited September 17, 2017 by OH FOY!

[Kimmi]

Interesting stat from the 7th inning or later the Sox rank 6th with a .252 avg. and last in HRS in the Majors. If you go by OPS they are 20th. Correction not 21st.

4th in runs scored, is the HR's important or the RBI's?

RBI's the Sox are ranked 5th in the Majors after the 7th inning.

 

Home runs are nice but they are overrated. Run scoring still boils down to OBP.

[Spudboy]

The game is still about not making outs.

[OH FOY]

Looking further into this if we play the Astros, our Bullpen better be sharp, from the 7th inning on they have the best avg. .280, best OPS .811, 5th in HRS, and #1 in RBI's.

Team is dangerous for 9 innings. They also don't walk, 24th in taking walks from the 7th inning on. They swing the bats.

Most important #1 team in Majors with Runs scored after 7th inning.

Edited September 17, 2017 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

Home runs are nice but they are overrated. Run scoring still boils down to OBP.

 

Agree it starts with getting on base.

[OH FOY]

This is wild from the 7th inning on this year Sox have Struck out 431 times the Astros have struck out 320 times. They put the ball in play, and when that happens Humans, Field, Bounces, Fielding and throwing, become involved, not just Pitcher and Catcher, for the out. Edited September 17, 2017 by OH FOY!

[SoxHop]

The game is still about not making outs.

 

I think this year is a perfect example of that. Both on offense and defense.....

[SoxHop]

Interesting stat from the 7th inning and later the Sox rank 6th with a .252 avg. and last in HRS in the Majors. If you go by OPS they are 20th. Correction not 21st.

4th in runs scored, is the HR's important or the RBI's?

RBI's the Sox are ranked 5th in the Majors after the 7th inning.

 

Interesting stuff. Also on Houston stats.....

[Spudboy]

Agree it starts with getting on base.

 

Yes. Not making outs.

[moonslav59]

Now c'mon. Has anyone really said that? IIRC most of us are saying that there's room for both stats and game experience, and discounting either of them offhand is a mistake.

 

I was joking, but some have hinted at knowing more, because they played the game at a somewhat higher level than the rest of us.

[S5Dewey]

Yes. Not making outs.

 

Right you are, Sir! Every out, whether it's offensively or defensively, is 1/3 of an inning, and getting or giving away an 'extra' 1/3 of an inning is HUGE.

[S5Dewey]

I was joking, but some have hinted at knowing more, because they played the game at a somewhat higher level than the rest of us.

 

Here's that statement from another perspective: Some have hinted at knowing more, because they've become more familiar with the statistics than the rest of us.

 

It's not all about statistics nor is it all about the human element. It's about both and giving more than lip service to acknowledging that some things in baseball can't be statistically quantified, just as some things can. The 'trick' is in knowing which can be statistically quantified and which can't - something nobody knows for sure.

[moonslav59]

Here's that statement from another perspective: Some have hinted at knowing more, because they've become more familiar with the statistics than the rest of us.

 

It's not all about statistics nor is it all about the human element. It's about both and giving more than lip service to acknowledging that some things in baseball can't be statistically quantified, just as some things can. The 'trick' is in knowing which can be statistically quantified and which can't - something nobody knows for sure.

 

I'm not sure where this is coming from, but I have played the game and do more than "lip service" to the intangibles of the game and to aspects not captured by stats and data. For example, I'm a huge believer in the importance of a catcher's relationship with the staff that goes well beyond the CERA argument.

 

BTW, I do not intentionally "hint at knowing more", but I guess by providing data to support my point of view, it probably comes off that way, at times.

 

When someone makes a claim that so and so has been in a slump, but the guy has been over .800 for the past 7 days, 14 days or 28 days, I'm going to say what I feel needs to be said.

 

[Maxbialystock]

Here's that statement from another perspective: Some have hinted at knowing more, because they've become more familiar with the statistics than the rest of us.

 

It's not all about statistics nor is it all about the human element. It's about both and giving more than lip service to acknowledging that some things in baseball can't be statistically quantified, just as some things can. The 'trick' is in knowing which can be statistically quantified and which can't - something nobody knows for sure.

 

Meh. Numbers permeate MLB and we ignore them at our peril. I mean just look at the central reality of every single at bat--the balls and strikes which are announced by the umpire as they occur. Even the bases have numbers, and the number of each means a whole bunch to the cognoscenti. The number of outs in each half inning has similar impact. We count everything in baseball and do it as a matter of course. And behind those numbers are other layers of stats, even some esoteric ones. Thus do MLB teams, front offices, owners, managers, and even players study those stats and even recite them--and that includes several levels of professional minor league baseball.

 

The great thing about baseball is that all those numbers and stats ain't nearly as predictive as one might think--moneyball notwithstanding. You just can't be sure what this pitcher--far less this hitter--will do in this inning, let alone this game and season. Unlike the other major professional sports, the difference between winning and losing teams tends to be small. A .400 team is lousy, maybe enough to get the manager fired, and a .600 team is certain to be in the postseason and probably a Division winner.

[Maxbialystock]

I also watch NCAA basketball and pay a small amount to use the Ken Pomeroy website. He's a statistician who started as a weather forecaster and is so good that Las Vegas opening betting line is usually the same one he has for every single Division game. He's not only good at predicting game outcomes, he is also amazingly accurate at final scores.

 

I am confident he could never do that with MLB games. Way too hard.

[cp176]

I almost think this is the post of the year for me. Thanks CP. This team just hangs around. They can't bludgeon another team. They just wont go down without a fight. They will scrap for runs, get to a tie, and then beat you in extra innings. You think you have them on the ropes, and one of the outfielders comes up with a great grab to ruin the rally. You see an opportunity to score, and a bullpen guy comes in and closes the door. You're up a run or two on them, and they get a short rally and tie it.

 

These guys don't go down......... it must be maddening to play them.

 

ty - we are on the same page. I think that most of us are.

[moonslav59]

Good to see the bats come alive tonight. The resurgence of Bogey & Betts could be just what we have needed. Bogey on base 4 of 6 times. Betts with 4 RBI.

 

Beni with a big hit.

 

Even Holt lent a hand.

 

Our late inning pen has carried us all year long.

 

I'm glad a Devers error was not a factor in a second straight loss.

 

Big win after being down 6-1!

 

[Nick]

Good to see Carson Smith close out the game. Could he be the 7th inning guy? Throw in Price, who can go multiple innings, our pen looks solid if we get to the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

Good to see Carson Smith close out the game. Could he be the 7th inning guy? Throw in Price, who can go multiple innings, our pen looks solid if we get to the playoffs.

 

YES!

 

Price, Smith, Reed all added to a pen that has already exceeded expectations...

 

Nice!

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS Last 30 Days:

 

.913 Vaz (1.019 last 14 days)

.838 Nunez (.962)

.807 JBJ (.712)

.791 Betts (1.033)

.786 Travis (14 PAs)

.781 Moreland (.650)

.763 Pedey (.813)

.757 Beni (.704)

.727 Bogey (.792)

.617 HRam (.392)

.580 Devers (.723)

.571 Holt (.675)

.531 Young (36 PAs)

.481 Leon (.374)

.397 Davis (26 PAs)

 

[Michigan adam]

Carson Smith might be huge along with Reed and Kimbrel. Also do not discount Price. Quietly the staff has shaken off the tough start to be close to what we thought they would be. A top 5 staff in MLB. For a team that has pitched more innings than any staff in MLB by a pretty wide margin I'll take it. The line up on the other hand has too many not quite good enoughs (hanley, moreland), just having an off year(JBJ, Betts, Bogarts), or can't stay on the field(Holt, Peddy) to overcome. Benny, Devers, and Nunez have been the only "surprise" contributors. Lets hope the hitters can get alittle hot in the playoffs, and the pitchers continue to slowly step up as they have all year.

[cp176]

Carson Smith might be huge along with Reed and Kimbrel. Also do not discount Price. Quietly the staff has shaken off the tough start to be close to what we thought they would be. A top 5 staff in MLB. For a team that has pitched more innings than any staff in MLB by a pretty wide margin I'll take it. The line up on the other hand has too many not quite good enoughs (hanley, moreland), just having an off year(JBJ, Betts, Bogarts), or can't stay on the field(Holt, Peddy) to overcome. Benny, Devers, and Nunez have been the only "surprise" contributors. Lets hope the hitters can get alittle hot in the playoffs, and the pitchers continue to slowly step up as they have all year.

 

A nice first post here. I would add that Vazquez has really surprised me with his overall performance. Vazquez and a Leon backup gives us something pretty good behind the plate.