Front office Decisions

[jacksonianmarch]

The plan was to upgrade your offense by strengthening your pitching. And it worked. What you didn't expect was that the loss of Papi would send a power outage across your lineup. Your team has the second worst SLG in the AL and if Trout didn't miss 6 weeks, it'd probably be the worst. Last year, you were the best. Your pitching improved by 0.3 runs per 9, enough to be tied with Cleveland for the best in baseball. Last year, you were tied for third. The pitching plan was spot on. What DD didn't forsee was how anemic your offense would be and now he doesn't have the chips to fix it

[Bellhorn04]

This team might also need a new manager and hitting coach.

[bowman]

DD screwed up not getting a decent replacement for Papi, compounded by the Shaw deal. Not good. Just look at that 3 run homer by Mousakas last night. Huge. It's hard for us sox fans to adjust to watching a team morph into a singles and doubles team when we have been used to the fireworks over the years. You have to be well balanced. Our pitching and defense are real good, but the offense has been like watching paint dry too many times this year. Just my opinion but if we didn't do the Shaw trade and signed EE, we would have things well in hand right now. Just frustrating watching good pitched games get waisted.

[bowman]

We got the chips to fix it, just need the balls to do it....

[Bellhorn04]

DD is not responsible for not signing EE. You can put that on JH, or even on BC if you so desire, but it was all about the LT.

[a700hitter]

I agree. Along with almost every Sox fan I know.

 

Still not sure how that would have worked with the cap.

 

Oddly, the market for his services never developed. He signed for seemingly cheap money.

 

I think the Sox never really wanted him. Sort of like Lester in a way.

They made no attempt to sign him at all. They immediately signed gold glove Moreland.

[cp176]

How many times have I heard here about how these guys are underperforming. i have never bought it at all but that is just me. The plan was to build on the pitching as opposed to signing the significant sluggers to replace Papi. If everyone had remained healthy, perhaps it would have worked and actually still might. As much as I would have loved to have seen EE signed , it didn't happen. All of the people here who have been saying all along that they have an unblinded faith in the fact that these little guys should be raking, should not be criticizing DD for not signing the big power bat. Now as for decimating the farm - really? - who did we lose for whom? Losing Shaw really does look like it hurt but if thornburg had remained healthy not so much I think. You want to give Sale and Kimbrel and Pomeranz back so you can get a do over? For whom? Hindsight hypocrisy at its best! You want them back so you can get a bigger bat - good - I like Sale and Kimbel and Pomeranz right where they are and so would every other ml club if they could get them. Time to relax - there is an adult in charge. This amazingly talented group of professionals that some of you have been slobbering over, might not be quite as good as you think they are.

[jacksonianmarch]

Looking to 2018, the sox cap space is limited.

 

In terms of long term contracts, you're at $132 mil (Pablo, Hanley, Sale, Pedroia, Price, Porcello, Kimbrel)

 

You'll have to go through arb again with Bogaerts, Bradley, Holt, Kelly, Thornburg, and Pomeranz. You'll have to go through it for the first time with Betts. Arb really looks at the prior two seasons, so even with Bogey struggling, his 2016 will weigh heavily. You're likely looking at $35 mil for those 6 guys.

 

If the cap is $195 and DD doesn't want to cross it, then you've got $32 mil to fill 12 spots on your roster. Otherwise known as no big deals to be made this offseason

[bowman]

Its all about talent evaluation. You don't trade a young up and comer who can hit for power for a relief pitcher. Remember Bagwell for Larry Anderson. Not saying Shaw is a Bagwell, but that along with rolling the dice for Panda giving him a free pass to the 3b position by trading Shaw. DD has to be held Accountable for that stupid move. And when you lose a guy like Papi, and have a chance to sign EE a guy made for this park and wants to come here.. WTF. We just let Panda walk with 50 million, so if some of us have a problem with talent evaluation and stupid decisions, excuse me. As for Sale, that was a no brainer. You gave up the number one prospect to get one of the best starters in baseball. Have to do it if your trying to win a world series. We are still that power bat away from a serious run.

[moonslav59]

How many times have I heard here about how these guys are underperforming. i have never bought it at all but that is just me. The plan was to build on the pitching as opposed to signing the significant sluggers to replace Papi. If everyone had remained healthy, perhaps it would have worked and actually still might. As much as I would have loved to have seen EE signed , it didn't happen. All of the people here who have been saying all along that they have an unblinded faith in the fact that these little guys should be raking, should not be criticizing DD for not signing the big power bat. Now as for decimating the farm - really? - who did we lose for whom? Losing Shaw really does look like it hurt but if thornburg had remained healthy not so much I think. You want to give Sale and Kimbrel and Pomeranz back so you can get a do over? For whom? Hindsight hypocrisy at its best! You want them back so you can get a bigger bat - good - I like Sale and Kimbel and Pomeranz right where they are and so would every other ml club if they could get them. Time to relax - there is an adult in charge. This amazingly talented group of professionals that some of you have been slobbering over, might not be quite as good as you think they are.

 

...and maybe not as bad either.

[moonslav59]

Looking to 2018, the sox cap space is limited.

 

In terms of long term contracts, you're at $132 mil (Pablo, Hanley, Sale, Pedroia, Price, Porcello, Kimbrel)

 

You'll have to go through arb again with Bogaerts, Bradley, Holt, Kelly, Thornburg, and Pomeranz. You'll have to go through it for the first time with Betts. Arb really looks at the prior two seasons, so even with Bogey struggling, his 2016 will weigh heavily. You're likely looking at $35 mil for those 6 guys.

 

If the cap is $195 and DD doesn't want to cross it, then you've got $32 mil to fill 12 spots on your roster. Otherwise known as no big deals to be made this offseason

 

1) I think the plan is to re-set the luxury tax and go over the next 2-4 years.

2) If Holt's arb gets too high, we can trade him.

3) The other "12 slots" could be filled by very cheap players with some quality and upside potential:

ERod

Wright

C Smith

Barnes

Hembree

Workman

Maddox, Scott, Taylor or Martin

Johnson or Beeks

Vaz

Leon

Beni

Devers

 

My guess is, we will sign a significant hitter who can play 2 or 3 of these positions:

1B

3B

LF

 

This won't put us over the limit by much.

 

We may also look to upgrade our catcher offense and decide on keeping just one from Leon or Vaz.

Travis

Marrero or Lin

Johnson

 

[Larry Cook]

DD is not responsible for not signing EE. You can put that on JH, or even on BC if you so desire, but it was all about the LT.

 

That's because Larry spent huge on Hanley and Pablo the previous year.

[moonslav59]

Its all about talent evaluation. You don't trade a young up and comer who can hit for power for a relief pitcher. Remember Bagwell for Larry Anderson. Not saying Shaw is a Bagwell, but that along with rolling the dice for Panda giving him a free pass to the 3b position by trading Shaw. DD has to be held Accountable for that stupid move. And when you lose a guy like Papi, and have a chance to sign EE a guy made for this park and wants to come here.. WTF. We just let Panda walk with 50 million, so if some of us have a problem with talent evaluation and stupid decisions, excuse me. As for Sale, that was a no brainer. You gave up the number one prospect to get one of the best starters in baseball. Have to do it if your trying to win a world series. We are still that power bat away from a serious run.

 

Shaw was not all that young. He wasn't much of an "up and comer" either. He had a good half year.

 

While I agree it turned out badly, Thornburg was a very good pitcher before the injury ended his season.

 

Signing EE would have given our 3rd high-priced DH (EE, HRam & Pablo). I think he ended up signing for way less than anyone expected, so I suppose we can pin that on DD, but I think resetting the luxury tax will help us for years to come.

 

 

[a700hitter]

Shaw was not all that young. He wasn't much of an "up and comer" either. He had a good half year.

 

While I agree it turned out badly, Thornburg was a very good pitcher before the injury ended his season.

 

Signing EE would have given our 3rd high-priced DH (EE, HRam & Pablo). I think he ended up signing for way less than anyone expected, so I suppose we can pin that on DD, but I think resetting the luxury tax will help us for years to come.

 

 

He signed for much less than for what Bennie the Boob signs Pablow.

[Larry Cook]

Shaw was not all that young. He wasn't much of an "up and comer" either. He had a good half year.

 

While I agree it turned out badly, Thornburg was a very good pitcher before the injury ended his season.

 

Signing EE would have given our 3rd high-priced DH (EE, HRam & Pablo). I think he ended up signing for way less than anyone expected, so I suppose we can pin that on DD, but I think resetting the luxury tax will help us for years to come.

 

 

 

I never saw Thornburg pitch until this spring training and he looked terrible!

 

I know the stats say he had a good season last year, but i also know that much like smith, there was a lot of chatter about potential arm troubles.

 

Yet dave still did the trade and left us gambling on Pablo, a guy in decline for the past four years. Oh my, what a mistake!!!!

 

Will someone please drug test dave!!!!!!

[bowman]

Huh. He came up for 1/2 the year in 2015 and popped 13 homers at 25 years old. His first full year he hit 16 and agree tired in the second half, but still just 26 and showing progression. Now he's blossemed at 27 years old. He has 24 homers and 74 RBI's. What is a up and comer in your opinion. A big talent evaluation screw up. You don't trade a guy like this for a relief pitcher unless you are going for an elite closer and need him to make the playoffs. We don't have a guy close to 24 homers right now. I was pissed when we traded him so I'm not just jumping on the band wagon. He was a big kid 230 pounds and just the kind of player we need right now. How much would it cost to get him back now. Too much. A big screw up..

[Fan_since_Boggs]

If Holt's arb gets too high, we can trade him.

 

Or non-tender.

 

My guess is, we will sign a significant hitter who can play 2 or 3 of these positions:

1B

3B

LF

 

I think the Red Sox are likely to sign E.Hosmer especially if their 2017 season ends with a whimper. They need more hitting, they like two way players, Hanley can't play first full time, Travis isn't a serious option. Hosmer will only be 28 going into the 2018 season--the Red Sox will be comfortable with a 4-5 year contract.

 

The Red Sox can go over the luxury tax next year.

 

They have Devers at 3b, Benintendi in LF, and so they aren't going to fill those positions via free agency.

 

NEXT YEAR:

1b- Hosmer

2b- Pedroia

SS- Bogaerts

3b- Devers

C- Vazquez/Swihart

LF- Benintendi platoon with Brentz or Castillo

CF- Bradley

RF- Betts

DH- Hanley

 

PLEASE REMIND ME: What will Hosmer cost the Red Sox in terms of draft compensation? Not a first round pick, correct? But I think a second or third, if I'm not mistaken. To be sure, the Royals will make Hosmer a qualifying offer.

Edited July 30, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Larry Cook]

This offseason we need a veteran power hitter to be a leader in the clubhouse.

 

The young veterans need a guy to keep them focused and light a fire if need be.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

If they signed EE, they wouldn't be able to sign Hosmer in the offseason. EE is pretty much one-dimensional, DH is his best spot and the Red Sox already have Hanley. They prefer two way players like Hosmer.

 

If they signed EE, no Houck, over luxury tax, and no Hosmer in the offseason. Passing on EE was the right move.

 

If the Red Sox signed EE, they would spend two years (maybe 3) managing two DHs--Hanley and EE. Good luck with that.

Edited July 30, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

He signed for much less than for what Bennie the Boob signs Pablow.

 

Yeah, so?

 

He would have put us over the limit for 3 more years and prevented several other options.

 

[a700hitter]

Yeah, so?

 

He would have put us over the limit for 3 more years and prevented several other options.

 

Not if all that money hadn't been wasted on Pablow.

[moonslav59]

Huh. He came up for 1/2 the year in 2015 and popped 13 homers at 25 years old. His first full year he hit 16 and agree tired in the second half, but still just 26 and showing progression. Now he's blossemed at 27 years old. He has 24 homers and 74 RBI's. What is a up and comer in your opinion. A big talent evaluation screw up. You don't trade a guy like this for a relief pitcher unless you are going for an elite closer and need him to make the playoffs. We don't have a guy close to 24 homers right now. I was pissed when we traded him so I'm not just jumping on the band wagon. He was a big kid 230 pounds and just the kind of player we need right now. How much would it cost to get him back now. Too much. A big screw up..

 

2016 was not progression over 2015.

 

His farm numbers were classic yo-yo. He had more bad half seasons than good over his previous 5 half seasons before being called up in 2015.

 

Look, I called Shaw my "sleeper prospect" long ago, but he was not showing progression for 3-4 years before 2017.

 

[moonslav59]

Not if all that money hadn't been wasted on Pablow.

 

Yeah, but it was, and we had to deal with the cards we were dealt.

[bowman]

Again its all about talent evaluation. Its not what he was but what he is now and thats not with us.. Big screw up..

[Jack Flap]

The loss of Papi's offense obviously hurt, but it's more than that. In theory (as people kept telling me before the season), we could make up that production at various positions, but we were counting on best-case scenarios virtually across the board to do so: the B's had to repeat what they did in 2016, Hanley had to keep mashing like he did in the second half, Sandoval had to at least not be a disaster, etc. -- and by and large, those things have not happened, or have happened only for brief spurts. Having a near-guaranteed 30 HR, .900 OPS masher in the middle of your lineup gives the supporting cast a fair amount of margin for error, but post-Ortiz, we no longer have that.

 

Dombrowki thinking he didn't need a middle-of-the-order bat looks a lot like Cherington thinking he didn't need a top-of-the-rotation starter in 2015: no matter how well it could be rationalized on paper, when the actual games got underway, the absence was glaring from day one.

Edited July 30, 2017 by Jack Flap

[a700hitter]

The loss of Papi's offense obviously hurt, but it's more than that. In theory (ad people kept telling me before the season), we could make up that production at various positions, but we were counting on best-case scenarios virtually across the board to do so: the B's had to repeat what they did in 2016, Hanley had to keep mashing like he did in the second half, Sandoval had to at least not be a disaster, etc. -- and by and large, those things have not happened, or have happened only for brief spurts. Having a near-guaranteed 30 HR, .900 OPS masher in the middle of your lineup gives the supporting cast a fair amount of margin for error, but post-Ortiz, we no longer have that.

 

Dombrowki thinking he didn't need a middle-of-the-order bat looks a lot like Cherington thinking he didn't need a top-of-the-rotation starter in 2015: no matter how well it could be rationalized on paper, when the actual games got underway, the absence was glaring from day one.

I think this sums it up pretty well.

[moonslav59]

Was it really a lot to expect our younger players to repeat their 2016 season or even get better?

 

Even if we saw some decline from a couple youngsters, I think getting a full season from Beni should have been enough to at least expect a break even point with this group.

 

Expecting Pedey & HRam to repeat or improve could be viewed as wishful thinking, and expecting Pablo to do better than Shaw was certainly dreaming. I don't think the expected decline from Leon should have offset the loss of Hanigan and Holaday.

 

In short, I don't think anyone expected the offense to be as good, but the fact is just about everyone is doing worse than last year. I'm not sure DD should be blamed for that, but ultimately the GM and manager are responsible.

 

Picking up Sale should have come close to making up for losing Papi. Adding Thornburg and Moreland and getting Smith back could have tipped the balance, but that hasn't materialized.

 

Losing Wright hurt, too. Price and Porcello have been disappointing as well, but there's still time to make some magic this year.

 

 

[bowman]

So much agree, the big question is does he see it now and can he pull something off. A guy like Bogey was counted on to take it up a notch and so far he hasn't. I don't think we can go too deep without the move, but it is what it is. Keep the faith..

[moonslav59]

I think this sums it up pretty well.

 

Many felt top of rotation SP'ing was not a top priority last winter.

 

Where would we be now had we signed EE and not traded for Sale?

 

(Not that we couldn't have done both and blew the luxury reset idea up, right?)

 

[a700hitter]

It is not reasonable to expect MVP level performance from Betts year in and year out. That is not reasonable for anyone not named Trout.