A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[a700hitter]

Ultimately I think it will probably belong in the same bucket as the Sale trade, where both teams will likely end up pretty happy with what they got.

 

That is how trades are supposed to work. They are supposed to address the needs of both teams. Otherwise, there would be no trades.

[a700hitter]

A year and a month away.

 

Look, I've said the cost of closers going up has made the deal look better, however $13M is still a lot of money to pay a closer.

 

Is $13M currently too much to pay the best closer? No, not as a FA, it is clearly not, but Kimbrel was not the very best last year- no even close.

 

The money side of the deal looks acceptable not that he is top dog and the prices of top 5 closers have gone up significantly.

 

We're still paying "near top dollar" for our closer AND we gave up several very good prospects for a RP'er. One or the other was fine with me, but not both. I think my point is pretty clear, pretty logical and easy to understand. I'm fine with anyone disagreeing with my point, but I think it is valid.

 

My wish, at the time of the trade was not to hold onto these prospects, it was actually to expand the package for something much bigger...like a Chris Sale trade, so using the argument that these prospects might not ever amount to anything is not an argument to use against my position. Since there were no great closers on the FA market that year, my plan was to patchwork until the next season. I suggested signing Clippard and trading for K-Rod among other ideas.

 

In hindsight, having to sign a top closer last winter would have cost much more than $13M, but it still would not have cost us 4 prospects.

 

Of course, if Kimbrel finishes out his contract pitching like 2017 and we win a ring, the deal will look fine, but Kimbrel had not pitched this well in several years before the trade and may not next year. He pitched a little worse than I expected last year. When we traded for him I thought he was about the 3rd best closer in MLB. My dislike of the trade had nothing to do with thinking Kimbrel was not an elite closer. I thought he was and expected him to continue being a top 3-5 closer.

 

It's hard to imagine this team winning without a top closer. Foulke, Pablebon and Uehara were significant factors in each of our 3 rings, but none were as costly to acquire as Kimbrel-- not even close.

 

Maybe my philosophy on closer value differs from some here, and I'm fine with that, I just made a point about how valuable (top) closers have been to us, but even in hindsight, I still think we overpaid. I'm fine with "overpaying" for Sale. I'm not for a RP'er.

You can use another 5 paragraphs if you like, but you will not convince me. I think you are wrong and so do many others.

[a700hitter]

fangraphs had him at $9.8M last year- meaning he didn't even earn his paycheck.

 

He also had knee surgery during the season -- not a bad season for a knee surgery season.

[a700hitter]

 

I think we could have gotten a Quintana/Carrasco/Salazar type a year ago for Espinoza, Margot, Allen, Asuaje & Guerra. If I'm wrong, I'd have thrown in another good but not great prospect, if needed.

Keep dreaming. You are not going to get a stud like Carrasco or Salazar for a bunch of lottery tickets.

[dgalehouse]

A lot of fans fall in love with their " young prospects " and tend to overvalue them. A lights out closer like Kimbrel is worth plenty. Just look at the box scores daily and see the anguish many teams are having with blown saves. The prospects we gave up for Kimbrel are nothing special. More like them come along all the time. No way we regret that trade.

[a700hitter]

A lot of fans fall in love with their " young prospects " and tend to overvalue them. A lights out closer like Kimbrel is worth plenty. Just look at the box scores daily and see the anguish many teams are having with blown saves. The prospects we gave up for Kimbrel are nothing special. More like them come along all the time. No way we regret that trade.

No lead is safe for the Nats.

 

Edit: And last night Osuna was not available and the Blue Jays could do nothing to protect a 3 run lead in the 9th.

[moonslav59]

But again, Kimbrel's contract looks like a bargain now compared to Chapman's, and that does have to be factored in.

 

Yes, and I believe I have said that about 3 or 4 times just on this page.

[moonslav59]

He also had knee surgery during the season -- not a bad season for a knee surgery season.

 

No, no bad at all, but he was not pitching at the same level even when healthy.

 

Look, I said I'm happy he's on the team. I said I expected a top 3-5 closer, and that's what we got.

 

The arguments you guys are using are all points I have already agreed are accurate.

[moonslav59]

A lot of fans fall in love with their " young prospects " and tend to overvalue them. A lights out closer like Kimbrel is worth plenty. Just look at the box scores daily and see the anguish many teams are having with blown saves. The prospects we gave up for Kimbrel are nothing special. More like them come along all the time. No way we regret that trade.

 

Last year, many were saying otherwise. Now that Kimbrel is lights out, the tide has turned (not wrongfully so, I might add).

 

Kimbrel's pitching like he did 5 years ago. I don't think anyone expected this, but I'm tickled pink!

 

This fact plus the fact that top closers are now making significantly more than $13M has made the trade look much better at this moment in time. I have not disputed these facts. Certainly those who liked the trade at the time and/or like it now have plenty of arguments and evidence to support their position.

 

I may be in a small minority when I say it's not a good trade to trade 4 prospects for a guy making near FA money anyways, especially for a RP'er. Just get a FA or trade for a top guy making peanuts. I don't think there had ever been so many good prospects traded for any RP'er before the Kimbrel trade or after, let alone one for a guy making near top dollar for closers at the time and who is still making top 5 or 6 money for a closer.

 

Let's say we signed Chapman or Jensen, the cost per year would be just $3-4M more and cost us no prospects, or you trade the top prospects for a top RP'er not making top 20 money.

 

[a700hitter]

No, no bad at all, but he was not pitching at the same level even when healthy.

 

Look, I said I'm happy he's on the team. I said I expected a top 3-5 closer, and that's what we got.

 

The arguments you guys are using are all points I have already agreed are accurate.

Two back peddling posts in a row. Smirk.

[moonslav59]

Two back peddling posts in a row. Smirk.

 

These posts were exactly what I have written all along from day one of the trade.

 

No back peddling.

[a700hitter]

These posts were exactly what I have written all along from day one of the trade.

 

No back peddling.

Then you are contradicting yourself.

[moonslav59]

Then you are contradicting yourself.

 

Not in the least. It's totally possible to be happy we have a top closer but think we overpaid for him when considering financial and prospect costs combined.

 

I still hate the Pom trade, but I'm glad we have Pom now. I just think Espi will be much better later (or we could have traded him as part of a bigger package for a better starter), and that "like" will outweigh my current happiness having Pom in the rotation.

 

It's not contradictory. It's looking at the long view and the short view and all the factors, such as budget and farm impact, and then weighing which one seems to trump the other.

 

The Kimbrel trade looks better now than it did before. That does not imply it has to now be a good trade.

 

I'll make it simple: I hated the trade at the time. I just dislike it now. If Kimbrel pitches like 2017 the rest of his contract, I may have to admit I was wrong.

Edited June 24, 2017 by moonslav59

[a700hitter]

Not in the least. It's totally possible to be happy we have a top closer but think we overpaid for him when considering financial and prospect costs combined.

 

I still hate the Pom trade, but I'm glad we have Pom now. I just think Espi will be much better later (or we could have traded him as part of a bigger package for a better starter), and that "like" will outweigh my current happiness having Pom in the rotation.

 

It's not contradictory. It's looking at the long view and the short view and all the factors, such as budget and farm impact, and then weighing which one seems to trump the other.

Talking out of both sides of your mouth?

[moonslav59]

Talking out of both sides of your mouth?

 

Maybe it's just too complex for you to understand that not everything is black and white.

 

There was certainly a good part of the Kimbrel trade. hating or disliking a trade does not mean I felt Kimbrel sucked or would suck.

 

(Note: I edited my post while you were responding to the unedited one.

[a700hitter]

Maybe it's just too complex for you to understand that not everything is black and white.

 

There was certainly a good part of the Kimbrel trade. hating or disliking a trade does not mean I felt Kimbrel sucked or would suck.

 

(Note: I edited my post while you were responding to the unedited one.

Gosh golly gee, this baseball stuff is really complicated. Or maybe you can't just grasp the simple fact that people disagree with your opinion no matter how many ways you explain it and we have very good and valid reasons to do so.

 

You remind me of that episode of Seinfeld where Pederman was in disbelief that Elaine hated "The English Patient". How could you not like it? LOL!! Get over it. Most of us have liked the Kimbrel trade from day 1. You can go on for 12 paragraphs of things that you think are over my little ole brain if you like. Change things up a bit and write a review of the English Patient. Warning: I don't think that you can get me to like it.

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS by defensive positions as compared to last year:

 

2017 2016

.875 CF .851 +24

.850 SS .784 +66

.818 RF .886 -68

.807 1B .807 +0

.752 DH 1.045 -293

.727 LF .759 -32

.711 C .665 +46

.677 2B .825 -148

.568 3B .686 -118

 

 

[moonslav59]

Gosh golly gee, this baseball stuff is really complicated. Or maybe you can't just grasp the simple fact that people disagree with your opinion no matter how many ways you explain it and we have very good and valid reasons to do so.

 

You remind me of that episode of Seinfeld where Pederman was in disbelief that Elaine hated "The English Patient". How could you not like it? LOL!! Get over it. Most of us have liked the Kimbrel trade from day 1. You can go on for 12 paragraphs of things that you think are over my little ole brain if you like. Change things up a bit and write a review of the English Patient. Warning: I don't think that you can get me to like it.

 

I'm fine with people disagreeing and even said the pro Kimbrel trade people have strong arguments in their favor. Did you not read that, or wass it too complicated to understand?

 

You are saying my statements and positions are contradictory, and they clearly are not. Either you don't understand my position because it is too complicated or you are just being a clown.

 

I said the trade looks better now. You act like I never said that, disagree with that, or are back peddling.

 

I explained that Kimbrel was paid like or near a top closer when we made the trade. You presented salaries from a month and a year later and claimed they were from the same winter. You never even bother to respond to that point, but instead went further with your claims.

 

It's not contradictory to lobe that we have Kimbrel yet still dislike the trade.

 

I get why kimmi loves Sale but hated the trade. She's not being contradictory doing so either.

 

I could care less if you agree or disagree but when you present my position as contradictory when it isn't, I'll take issue.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, and I believe I have said that about 3 or 4 times just on this page.

 

Not exactly. I said Kimbrel's contract 'looks like a bargain', and you said we're paying 'near top dollar'. Chapman's contract is a guaranteed 86 million. Our total commitment to Kimbrel was only 24 million, plus a team option for another year at 13 million. There's a huge difference between the two deals. That much at least you have to admit.

[a700hitter]

I'm fine with people disagreeing and even said the pro Kimbrel trade people have strong arguments in their favor. Did you not read that, or wass it too complicated to understand?

 

You are saying my statements and positions are contradictory, and they clearly are not. Either you don't understand my position because it is too complicated or you are just being a clown.

 

I said the trade looks better now. You act like I never said that, disagree with that, or are back peddling.

 

I explained that Kimbrel was paid like or near a top closer when we made the trade. You presented salaries from a month and a year later and claimed they were from the same winter. You never even bother to respond to that point, but instead went further with your claims.

 

It's not contradictory to lobe that we have Kimbrel yet still dislike the trade.

 

I get why kimmi loves Sale but hated the trade. She's not being contradictory doing so either.

 

I could care less if you agree or disagree but when you present my position as contradictory when it isn't, I'll take issue.

It's not that I am not understanding your argument. It is that I disagree with it. Is that too difficult for you to understand or are you just being a clown?

[S5Dewey]

The thing is, salaries for solid - and better - players are escalating at a scary pace. Today's overpay can be tomorrow's bargain. That's why I don't gripe (too much) when we pay the going price for a player. I figure that within a couple of years that salary we agreed to could be cheap.

 

Performance aside (which is hard to type in this situation) Price's salary may never be a "bargain" @ $31M but it a couple of years it could be in line - for an ace. Kershaw's getting $35.5M and Verlander is getting $28M so in next year's market..... who knows?

[Spudboy]

Keep dreaming. You are not going to get a stud like Carrasco or Salazar for a bunch of lottery tickets.

 

I would hope not because that means the Sox could have had them but they were either being cheap ( unlikely ) or just being dumb ( more likely ).

[Spudboy]

No lead is safe for the Nats.

 

Edit: And last night Osuna was not available and the Blue Jays could do nothing to protect a 3 run lead in the 9th.

 

Imagine having no closer? What price then would be reasonable for the best one available?

[Bellhorn04]

Imagine having no closer? What price then would be reasonable for the best one available?

 

That's when you trade Varitek and D-Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb.

[Spudboy]

That's when you trade Varitek and D-Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb.

 

Hahahaha!11!

[moonslav59]

Not exactly. I said Kimbrel's contract 'looks like a bargain', and you said we're paying 'near top dollar'. Chapman's contract is a guaranteed 86 million. Our total commitment to Kimbrel was only 24 million, plus a team option for another year at 13 million. There's a huge difference between the two deals. That much at least you have to admit.

 

I'm only going to say it once more. At the time of the deal Kimbrel was making top or near top dollar for a closer (per season).

 

Now, he is possibly ranked 5th, which is still pretty close to top dollar. I agree, $13M/yr is not really close to $17M a year, and that is why I said his deal is looking better than it did before. I wouldn't say a "huge difference" per year, and that's what counts towards the luxury tax.

 

Yes, I agree $86M is way more than our $25M/2 or $37M/3 commitment to Kimbrel. I've never said otherwise.

 

Now, ask 700 to admit he was comparing Kimbrel's 2016 salary to other closers' 2017 contracts and saying it was just a month later the closer contracts exploded.

[moonslav59]

It's not that I am not understanding your argument. It is that I disagree with it. Is that too difficult for you to understand or are you just being a clown?

 

You went beyond disagreeing, and that's what I called you out on.

 

You said I "contradicted" myself and "back peddled". That's much more than disagreeing.

 

You were either wrong or you misunderstood my position. If there's a third choice, please explain...no better yet, let's just agree to disagree and move on from this battered topic.

[moonslav59]

The thing is, salaries for solid - and better - players are escalating at a scary pace. Today's overpay can be tomorrow's bargain. That's why I don't gripe (too much) when we pay the going price for a player. I figure that within a couple of years that salary we agreed to could be cheap.

 

Performance aside (which is hard to type in this situation) Price's salary may never be a "bargain" @ $31M but it a couple of years it could be in line - for an ace. Kershaw's getting $35.5M and Verlander is getting $28M so in next year's market..... who knows?

 

1) At least Price is a starter not a RP'er.

2) Price cost big money not big money and 4 prospects.

[moonslav59]

Imagine having no closer? What price then would be reasonable for the best one available?

 

About $3-4M more per year than what we are paying Kimbrel, and we still have the prospects, or we traded them for something other than a RP'er..

[moonslav59]

That's when you trade Varitek and D-Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb.

 

Or, you sign Uehara or trade Jose Almonte and the lesser Basabe for Zeigler.