What will be the 2017 greatest weakness for the Sox?

[moonslav59]

I'm willing to bet the reason for that is that in a lot of those late & close situations he was facing a tough lefty reliever.

 

I'd love to see stats like that:

 

L-R splits Late & Close

 

Late & Close in the playoffs or key games in Sept.

 

Stuff like that.

[moonslav59]

Another purely personal belief of mine is that the leverage OF the game matters more than the leverage WITHIN the game.

 

To put that in simple terms, I think the first at-bat in an elimination postseason game carries more pressure than a late & close at-bat in the first game of the season.

 

Agreed.

[a700hitter]

I explained it already, and once again, you misunderstood my position.

 

And you wonder why I need 80% more words.

And your explanation made no sense in the context of your statement.

[Kimmi]

1. Shoot Steve Lyons out of a cannon so that he can never call a Sox game again!

 

2. What blonde chick are they going to replace Gary Streikweeksdnflenkski with?

 

They should give me the job. Either Steve's or Gary's. People would love me.

[a700hitter]

They should give me the job. Either Steve's or Gary's. People would love me.

As you blamed them for being impatient and ruining the team's season?

[Kimmi]

It is debatable whether athletes can actually raise the level of their performance in " clutch " situations. However , there can be no doubt that choking is real. Some people get so caught up with stats and probabilities that they forget that we are talking about human beings , not the roll of dice or the spinning of a wheel. Humans have emotions like nervousness , anxiety and fear. Some are able to deal with it better than others. It is easy to spot choking in sports like golf , basketball, pool , etc. In a head to head situation in baseball , one player's choking may make it seem that the opponent is raising his game. In the end, " clutch" may simply be being able to control one's emotions in pressure situations. In a sport like baseball, even then there is no guarantee of success.

 

I pretty much agree with this. I have no doubt that some people choke under pressure.

 

That said, as with clutch, there is no evidence of 'choke' at the major league level. The most likely reason for the lack of choke is that players who are able to make it to the majors are people who can handle the pressure. Those who fold under pressure either don't make it to the majors or, if they do, they don't last very long.

 

I am fine with definining clutch to be the ability to control one's emotions in pressure situations, but in that case, I would say that pretty much every major league player that sticks is clutch.

[Kimmi]

Since when has "clutch" only referred to Postseason stats? Shouldn't close and late stats matter too? What about any big game down the stretch run?

 

One of the problems with determining whether clutch exists is with the definition of what clutch is. That said, the topic has been researched and analyzed in pretty much every way imaginable, and the results have been pretty much the same.

[moonslav59]

And your explanation made no sense in the context of your statement.

 

I couldn't have been clearer.

 

I give up.

[Kimmi]

Depth, on both sides of the ball.

 

LOL Hugh. The timing/placement of this post cracked me up.

 

I agree with you on the depth though.

[Spudboy]

They should give me the job. Either Steve's or Gary's. People would love me.

 

You'd be far better than that woman that does games for The Yankees. She sucks donkey dicks.

[a700hitter]

You'd be far better than that woman that does games for The Yankees. She sucks donkey dicks.

And she is a big ol'horse.

[harmony]

The Red Sox have two good defensive catchers but should not expect great hitting from any of the three projected catchers.

 

ZiPS projects 2017 OPS+ of 81 for Sandy Leon, 80 for Blake Swihart and 72 for Christian Vazquez:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project 2017 wRC+ of 87 for Swihart, 79 for Vazquez and 74 for Leon.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9774&position=C

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5273&position=C

 

Last year all catchers had an average OPS+ of 90 and average wRC+ of 87.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2016

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[Bellhorn04]

One of the problems with determining whether clutch exists is with the definition of what clutch is. That said, the topic has been researched and analyzed in pretty much every way imaginable, and the results have been pretty much the same.

 

But postseason games aren't considered because the samples are too small, right?

[Kimmi]

But postseason games aren't considered because the samples are too small, right?

 

Postseason performances are considered as a whole. Any one player's postseason performance would be too small a sample, but looking at all postseason performances over various time periods provides sufficient sample sizes.

[Bellhorn04]

Postseason performances are considered as a whole. Any one player's postseason performance would be too small a sample, but looking at all postseason performances over various time periods provides sufficient sample sizes.

 

But to me the whole idea is trying to evaluate individual players...I don't really understand.

[S5Dewey]

Postseason performances are considered as a whole. Any one player's postseason performance would be too small a sample, but looking at all postseason performances over various time periods provides sufficient sample sizes.

 

...Which tells us nothing about individual player's performances. If one player is 40-50 in the post season and another is 10-50 we can surmise that they're equal because the sample size isn't large enough to draw a conclusion from.

 

It's hard to even type that with a straight face.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox have two good defensive catchers but should not expect great hitting from any of the three projected catchers....

 

 

Some context is needed here, harmony.

 

As you pointed out, the whole league had a catcher OPS of .702, a wOBA of .304 and a wRC+ of 87.

 

The Sox placed...

 

18th in Catcher OPS at .681 and wOBA at .298- both very close to the norm. Their 79 wRC+ was a bit farther away from the league norm of 87 (19th), but these guys will no longer be getting PAs with the Sox:

 

113 PAs Hanigan .500 OPS, .226 wOBA, 29 wRC+

35 PAs Holaday .468 OPS, .212 wOBA, 20 wRC+

 

Certainly nobody expects Leon to repeat his 123 wRC+ in 283 PAs, but it's not unrealistic to think he might get 400-450 PAs at above the 2016 Sox numbers. Vazquez should be able to improve on his .585 OPS & 51 wRCA+, but even if he doesn't, he should do better with the 148 PAs production Hanigan & Holiday gave us last year, or Swihart could come up and blow all these guys away.

 

[moonslav59]

But postseason games aren't considered because the samples are too small, right?

 

They should be considered but within the context of their sample sizes and in conjunction with their regular season High Leverage and late & Close numbers. Now, the sample sizes might look large enough to debate their validity. Then, we get back to the skill vs random debate.... again.

[moonslav59]

Postseason performances are considered as a whole. Any one player's postseason performance would be too small a sample, but looking at all postseason performances over various time periods provides sufficient sample sizes.

 

Actually, they don't.

 

Is Papi's 369 PA post season sample size a large enough sample to be truly definitive?

[moonslav59]

...Which tells us nothing about individual player's performances. If one player is 40-50 in the post season and another is 10-50 we can surmise that they're equal because the sample size isn't large enough to draw a conclusion from.

 

It's hard to even type that with a straight face.

 

Nobody says you have to call 40 for 50 equal to 10 for 50. We are just saying the sample size is not large enough to definitively label either of them "clutch" or "choke".

 

I'm fine with someone saying, "That 40 for 50 guy has sure been clutch." But, to label him a clutch player is another matter, to me.

 

One is describing his performance or an event. The other is calling somebody something based on enough evidence to warrant it.

 

If you went oh for 1 in a WS, would you like to be labeled a "choke"?

 

If you went 1 for 1 with a big hit, everyone would say, "That was a clucth hit!" But, should you be called a "clutch player" based on 1 AB? I'd say no.

 

Personally, I'd say no to 369 PAs as well, if that were all we were looking at.

[Bellhorn04]

Actually, they don't.

 

Is Papi's 369 PA post season sample size a large enough sample to be truly definitive?

 

Kimmi is saying they don't look at individual player samples but the total sample for all players. I'm sure she'll tell us more when she gets home from school.

[moonslav59]

Kimmi is saying they don't look at individual player samples but the total sample for all players. I'm sure she'll tell us more when she gets home from school.

 

Thanks. I misread her statement.

[cp176]

This is all good time passing chatter isn't it. I would be very interested to hear what other lifelong coaches feel about the concepts of players who tend to choke and those who tend to excel when the games are on the line. It is one thing to analyze and scrutinize from the outside as opposed to actually being involved in the activity. To the people I spent my working life around, concepts like mental toughness although difficult to really describe had some significant meaning. To the people who think that the home field or court doesn't make a difference - you never played a bb game at Lawrence High School in Fairfield, Maine. I get the fact that people tend to think that professional athletes are supposed to be above all of these emotions that mere mortals seem to feel - my opinion is that they are not though.

[moonslav59]

This is all good time passing chatter isn't it. I would be very interested to hear what other lifelong coaches feel about the concepts of players who tend to choke and those who tend to excel when the games are on the line. It is one thing to analyze and scrutinize from the outside as opposed to actually being involved in the activity. To the people I spent my working life around, concepts like mental toughness although difficult to really describe had some significant meaning. To the people who think that the home field or court doesn't make a difference - you never played a bb game at Lawrence High School in Fairfield, Maine. I get the fact that people tend to think that professional athletes are supposed to be above all of these emotions that mere mortals seem to feel - my opinion is that they are not though.

 

Well said.

[mvp 78]

One of the problems with determining whether clutch exists is with the definition of what clutch is. That said, the topic has been researched and analyzed in pretty much every way imaginable, and the results have been pretty much the same.

 

Maybe clutch is just as imaginary as the philosopher's stone. I'm a true believer though.

[oldtimer]

This is all good time passing chatter isn't it. I would be very interested to hear what other lifelong coaches feel about the concepts of players who tend to choke and those who tend to excel when the games are on the line. It is one thing to analyze and scrutinize from the outside as opposed to actually being involved in the activity. To the people I spent my working life around, concepts like mental toughness although difficult to really describe had some significant meaning. To the people who think that the home field or court doesn't make a difference - you never played a bb game at Lawrence High School in Fairfield, Maine. I get the fact that people tend to think that professional athletes are supposed to be above all of these emotions that mere mortals seem to feel - my opinion is that they are not though.

 

I think a reading of the book "Francona, The Red Sox Years" by Frnacona and Shaughnessy is a good way to pass the time before spring training commences. Clearly there is so much that goes on from players health, feelings and interactions that get involved with performance. Also the demands put on teams by the front office needs often are opposed to the best interests of winning. So many personalities and non-baseball related issues are playing out continuously. While Theo was a proponent of data driven decision making, he also understood the needs of Francona to have freedom in keeping the clubhouse together in his own way. All of you hung up on Sabermetrics should read this just to raise your awareness of the real world of team dynamics. Concepts like clutch performance and home field advantage can and are impacted by how a manager can set up a rotation and use players in positions where they thrive.

[cp176]

Well said.

 

ty - In all honesty, if it wasn't for all things that can't be measured, I'm not sure that I would feel the same passions for the games we play. It's what is unpredictable the really keeps me going. I guess I might be a bit of a dreamer.

[cp176]

I think a reading of the book "Francona, The Red Sox Years" by Frnacona and Shaughnessy is a good way to pass the time before spring training commences. Clearly there is so much that goes on from players health, feelings and interactions that get involved with performance. Also the demands put on teams by the front office needs often are opposed to the best interests of winning. So many personalities and non-baseball related issues are playing out continuously. While Theo was a proponent of data driven decision making, he also understood the needs of Francona to have freedom in keeping the clubhouse together in his own way. All of you hung up on Sabermetrics should read this just to raise your awareness of the real world of team dynamics. Concepts like clutch performance and home field advantage can and are impacted by how a manager can set up a rotation and use players in positions where they thrive.

 

I will pick it up and read it. Francona will forever have a special place in my heart. I learned a lot from simply observing how he dealt with his players.

[oldtimer]

I will pick it up and read it. Francona will forever have a special place in my heart. I learned a lot from simply observing how he dealt with his players.

 

It brought back a flood of memories for me personally and a new understanding of why things were happening the way they were. Now I see Lucchino leaving as a good thing, while before I had no opinion on him.

[Bellhorn04]

I think a reading of the book "Francona, The Red Sox Years" by Frnacona and Shaughnessy is a good way to pass the time before spring training commences. Clearly there is so much that goes on from players health, feelings and interactions that get involved with performance. Also the demands put on teams by the front office needs often are opposed to the best interests of winning. So many personalities and non-baseball related issues are playing out continuously. While Theo was a proponent of data driven decision making, he also understood the needs of Francona to have freedom in keeping the clubhouse together in his own way. All of you hung up on Sabermetrics should read this just to raise your awareness of the real world of team dynamics. Concepts like clutch performance and home field advantage can and are impacted by how a manager can set up a rotation and use players in positions where they thrive.

 

Nice post!