Who is our opening day starter?

[Dojji]

They're replacing Koji, Taz and Zigler with Kelly, Thornburg and Smith and very possibly moving Pom to the swingman role which he has been very good at in the past. I know I, personally, would rather have Wright in the rotation and Pom in the wings than the reverse given the two players' histories -- Wright has never really been great in relief and is much better historically as a starter, and for Pomeranz, he can stretch out, he proved that last year, but he slowed down as the year wore on and the innings mounted -- the swingman role seems to be his natural territory. Edited December 22, 2016 by Dojji

[mvp 78]

They're replacing Koji, Taz and Zigler with Kelly, Thornburg and Smith and very possibly moving Pom to the swingman role which he has been very good at in the past. I know I, personally, would rather have Wright in the rotation and Pom in the wings than the reverse given the two players' histories -- Wright has never really been great in relief and is much better historically as a starter, and for Pomeranz, he can stretch out, he proved that last year, but he slowed down as the year wore on and the innings mounted -- the swingman role seems to be his natural territory.

 

Smith and Kelly were already on the roster though. To me it just seems like one step forward and two back.

 

If Pom became a lights out swingman, I'd be happy with it. I just don't know what the best thing to do with him due to his injury history. Would turning him into a swingman be harder on him as there would be more appearances? IDK.

 

Wright was great in the rotation, but I'm still worried about him turning into a pumpkin. If he had any secondary pitches, I wouldn't be as concerned.

[Bellhorn04]

Koji, Taz and Ziegler got pretty big money all things considered.

 

DD has decimated the farm but he's been pretty good at keeping the payroll within budget.

[mvp 78]

Koji, Taz and Ziegler got pretty big money all things considered.

 

DD has decimated the farm but he's been pretty good at keeping the payroll within budget.

 

Time will tell if he traded high on the right prospects and kept the good ones for himself. I don't think an organization should be built solely from the farm and that there needs to be a good balance between selling and promoting prospects. I hope he's just cut the chaff.

 

No matter what, if the Sox flame out and don't have any sort of playoff run the next 3 years, his time here should be considered a failure.

[Bellhorn04]

Time will tell if he traded high on the right prospects and kept the good ones for himself. I don't think an organization should be built solely from the farm and that there needs to be a good balance between selling and promoting prospects. I hope he's just cut the chaff.

 

No matter what, if the Sox flame out and don't have any sort of playoff run the next 3 years, his time here should be considered a failure.

 

Absolutely.

[Eddy Ballgame]

We're about 18 months into DD's tenure. A lot of his moves can't really be measured at the moment and we need to let things play out a little. If Pomeranz never stays healthy, that trade ends up being a blunder no matter how Espinoza turns out. I can't fault DD for the Kimbrel trade or Price signing as both moves were reasonable. The Sale trade seems like his best get yet by trading Kopech away when he was at his peak value for a real ace. They fixed Hanley by moving him to 1st, but still need to do something about Pablo. If he can get Pablo to stay healthy and contribute, it feels the biggest hole the Sox have right now. If he can't stay healthy, they need to get out from under that contract somehow. My real concern about the job he's done this offseason is that I wish he was more active in signing RP's. They are basically replacing Koji, Taz and Ziegler with Thornburg. That seems like a risky strategy to me.

 

I don't think they look at it as replacing Koji, Tazawa & Ziegler with Thornburg only. Koji missed nearly 2 months, Ziegler was only there for less than 3 months & Tazawa also missed some time and struggled a bit.

 

They'll now should have a full season of Joe Kelly who looked good down the stretch, their now saying that Carson Smith could possibly be back to start the season, Barnes has the stuff to take a step forward and they have plenty of arms between Ross, Abad, Hembree, etc. that someone else could emerge.

 

Middle relief is a often a crapshoot, but they should have enough power arms to have an effective bullpen. If not, they'll go get someone at the deadline or sooner.

[mvp 78]

I don't think they look at it as replacing Koji, Tazawa & Ziegler with Thornburg only. Koji missed nearly 2 months, Ziegler was only there for less than 3 months & Tazawa also missed some time and struggled a bit.

 

They'll now should have a full season of Joe Kelly who looked good down the stretch, their now saying that Carson Smith could possibly be back to start the season, Barnes has the stuff to take a step forward and they have plenty of arms between Ross, Abad, Hembree, etc. that someone else could emerge.

 

Middle relief is a often a crapshoot, but they should have enough power arms to have an effective bullpen. If not, they'll go get someone at the deadline or sooner.

 

It would be a little more comforting for me if they grabbed another guy.

[Bellhorn04]

their now saying that Carson Smith could possibly be back to start the season

 

Really...that'd be nice indeed.

[mvp 78]

The most recent I heard was:

"In Carson Smith's case it's really a situation where some people think he'll be ready for spring training -- kind of ready to compete," Dombrowski said here at the GM Meetings. "I'm not really ready to put that on him at this point. I think it's more of a bonus if he's ready there."

 

Dombrowski mentioned approximately June 1 as a more realistic timetable for Smith's return.

 

"But that's still to be determined," Dombrowski said. "He's making good progress. He's felt good. But until you really get into that rehab process. Of course, if he was healthy and ready to go in the very beginning, I don't think we'd be looking for an eighth-inning guy because we feel like he could fill that role."

[S5Dewey]

The most recent I heard was:

"In Carson Smith's case it's really a situation where some people think he'll be ready for spring training -- kind of ready to compete," Dombrowski said here at the GM Meetings. "I'm not really ready to put that on him at this point. I think it's more of a bonus if he's ready there."

 

Dombrowski mentioned approximately June 1 as a more realistic timetable for Smith's return.

 

"But that's still to be determined," Dombrowski said. "He's making good progress. He's felt good. But until you really get into that rehab process. Of course, if he was healthy and ready to go in the very beginning, I don't think we'd be looking for an eighth-inning guy because we feel like he could fill that role."

 

So when Smith comes back we'll have Kimbrel for the 9th, Smith for the 8th, Thonburg for the 7th (?) and Kelly for the 6th. Then if we can't get five innings out of our starters we have a choice of three others to fill in the gap. Wow. I see a lot of late inning victories for this team.

[Emp9]

Depending on how well Smith comes back. Might ease him in in less dire situations with Thornburg still as the main setup guy. I expect for Kimbrel 9th, Smith 8th, Thornburg 7th in 2018 though.

[Eddy Ballgame]

The most recent I heard was:

"In Carson Smith's case it's really a situation where some people think he'll be ready for spring training -- kind of ready to compete," Dombrowski said here at the GM Meetings. "I'm not really ready to put that on him at this point. I think it's more of a bonus if he's ready there."

 

Dombrowski mentioned approximately June 1 as a more realistic timetable for Smith's return.

 

"But that's still to be determined," Dombrowski said. "He's making good progress. He's felt good. But until you really get into that rehab process. Of course, if he was healthy and ready to go in the very beginning, I don't think we'd be looking for an eighth-inning guy because we feel like he could fill that role."

 

Even that sounds to me like Smith could be ready a lot sooner than initially expected. I'd love to bring in a guy like Greg Holland, but why would a guy who is looking to rebuild his value ever consider signing with a team where he'll essentially be competing for the 6th/7th inning role? It doesn't make any sense.

 

A guy like Holland is likely going to want to sign with a Pittsburgh or Miami where he can possibly close. My guess is that they'll bring in a few guys on minor league deals, but I doubt they give another reliever a guaranteed deal at this point.

[mvp 78]

Depending on how well Smith comes back. Might ease him in in less dire situations with Thornburg still as the main setup guy. I expect for Kimbrel 9th, Smith 8th, Thornburg 7th in 2018 though.

 

Yeah, I don't see giving Smith a heavy workload this year.

[moonslav59]

I'm with MVP on this one. I kind of expected more than Thornburg to replace Koji, Ziegler & Taz.

 

Yes, Smith should return, but there might be a long period for him to get back to where he was with Seattle, and besides, it's not like he has had many very good season.

 

Yes, Kelly looked good down the stretch. We said the same about him after 2015's end of season stretch.

 

Is adding Pom or Wright to the pen as a swingman really going to be an improvement on the 2016 Wright in that role?

 

We went into this season with a pretty good looking pen:

 

Kimbrel (top 3-4 closer in MLB), Smith (coming off a good season in SEA), Koji (still looking like a force), Taz (no reason to expect decline), Ross (had been very consistent), Layne (had been a good LOOGY) and Wright (with Barnes in the wings).

 

Going into 2017:

 

Do we feel better about Kimbrel now as compared to April 1, 2016? I don't.

 

Thronburg/Smith vs Smith/Koji? With Smith's status unknown, I like how I felt with Smith/Koji better.

 

Taz/Ross/Layne/Wright/Barnes (as we felt opening day 2016) vs Kelly/Ross/Barnes/Pom or Wright/Abad orHembree? Pretty close here.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

I'm with MVP on this one. I kind of expected more than Thornburg to replace Koji, Ziegler & Taz.

 

The only way to acquire another proven reliever was to trade more prospects or use up another 6-8 million of our precious room under the tax threshold. Neither option was very appealing.

[moonslav59]

The only way to acquire another proven reliever was to trade more prospects or use up another 6-8 million of our precious room under the tax threshold. Neither option was very appealing.

 

Agreed. I'm just saying that going into this winter, I expected more pen building.

 

I'm not complaining about our 25 man roster construction. We have a tremendous opening day roster on paper.

 

The pen is still a concern (second to 3B), but adding Thornburg was a big boost.

 

One big aspect to this year's pen is, assuming at least 5 of our starters stay healthy, is that we should not need as many innings. If we can count on Pom or Wright to stay in the pen most of the year, then we look fine.

 

We also have decent ML ready farm depth in Scott, Workman, Martin, Ramirez, Olmos, Ysla and maybe Owens or Johnson.

 

[Emp9]

Moon, you think we're getting Quintana!? LOL

 

Come on, who voted for #6? fess up!

[Eddy Ballgame]

Moon, you think we're getting Quintana!? LOL

 

Come on, who voted for #6? fess up!

 

I don't think the Sox ever had much interest in Quintana. It sounded like it was either Sale or bust. Then again, who knows. Maybe they feel like they already have a Quintana in E-Rod.

[moonslav59]

Moon, you think we're getting Quintana!? LOL

 

Come on, who voted for #6? fess up!

 

Not me. My guess is the guy who wrote that choice into the poll.

[moonslav59]

I don't think the Sox ever had much interest in Quintana. It sounded like it was either Sale or bust. Then again, who knows. Maybe they feel like they already have a Quintana in E-Rod.

 

Q has very similar numbers to Sale, but he has...

 

1 more year of team control

 

no weird delivery that hints at a higher injury probability

[Emp9]

Sale has a better career K/9 (10.1>7.4), if you're into that sorta thing. Although despite that, he had a better era than Sale did last season.

[Emp9]

Not me. My guess is the guy who wrote that choice into the poll.

 

probably a good guess

[Eddy Ballgame]

Q has very similar numbers to Sale, but he has...

 

1 more year of team control

 

no weird delivery that hints at a higher injury probability

 

I realize that, but I have no doubt that the acquisition of Sale went well beyond the "stats."

[moonslav59]

I realize that, but I have no doubt that the acquisition of Sale went well beyond the "stats."

 

To me, 4 years to 3 tipped the balance to Q, but I'm not complaining.

 

The Sale trade is the type of trade I have dreamed of for 45 years.

 

In hindsight, had we not traded for Kimbrel and traded for Pom, maybe we could have traded for both Sale and Q.

[mvp 78]

To me, 4 years to 3 tipped the balance to Q, but I'm not complaining.

 

The Sale trade is the type of trade I have dreamed of for 45 years.

 

In hindsight, had we not traded for Kimbrel and traded for Pom, maybe we could have traded for both Sale and Q.

 

Didn't we have a better version of this trade already when we got Pedro from the Expos?

[moonslav59]

Didn't we have a better version of this trade already when we got Pedro from the Expos?

 

I knew Pedro was really good at the time of the trade, but he only had one great season under his belt. There was also talk of him being too small and frail to be a starting pitcher for a very long time.

 

I loved the trade at the time, but didn't think of it (at the time) like this trade for Sale.

[mvp 78]

I knew Pedro was really good at the time of the trade, but he only had one great season under his belt. There was also talk of him being too small and frail to be a starting pitcher for a very long time.

 

I loved the trade at the time, but didn't think of it (at the time) like this trade for Sale.

 

He was pretty damn good in 95 and 96 too.

[moonslav59]

He was pretty damn good in 95 and 96 too.

 

Yes, he was...and 94 too.

 

Pedro:

14-10 3.51/ 1.151 WHIP

13-19 3.70/ 1.195

17-8 1.90/ 0.932

 

Sale:

12-4 2.17/ 0.966

13-11 3.41/1.088

17-10 3.34/1.037

 

Pedro:'95-'97

16.7 WAR

71 ERA-

1.08 WHIP

27% K

8% BB

 

Sale: '14-'16

16.1 WAR

74 ERA-

1.03 WHIP

29% K

5% BB

 

They look pretty close, so I'm not sure why I wasn't quite as high when we got Pedro as I feel right now.

 

We can only hope Sale preforms like Pedro did for us.

 

[mvp 78]

They look pretty close, so I'm not sure why I wasn't quite as high when we got Pedro as I feel right now.

 

We can only hope Sale preforms like Pedro did for us.

 

 

Because of interleague play didn't exist in 1994 and the internet was still in its infancy. We have a lot more information at our fingertips these days rather than just the daily boxscore.

[moonslav59]

Because of interleague play didn't exist in 1994 and the internet was still in its infancy. We have a lot more information at our fingertips these days rather than just the daily boxscore.

 

That was probably part of it, but I did get the Sporting News and Baseball Digest to satisfy my data obsession.