Mookie Betts wins Gold Glove

[Eddy Ballgame]

As moonslav indicated, we basically have him for the next 4 years for about 50 million total, so a 10 year 300 million deal would in effect be an extension of 6 years at about 42 million a year. Plus we assume all the risk of him getting injured (and he just had knee surgery). If terms like that are the best we can do, it's just not feasible.

 

You have to wonder, too, at what point the MLB rate of inflation starts to slow down a bit.

 

I'm not saying that I think it's the "right" move, I'm just saying what I think it would cost to sign him long term at this point. They could always get creative with the numbers and back load it, too. I don't think that the TV contracts will be getting any smaller anytime soon and I definitely think Harper is going to get 40 plus per year.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not saying that I think it's the "right" move, I'm just saying what I think it would cost to sign him long term at this point. They could always get creative with the numbers and back load it, too. I don't think that the TV contracts will be getting any smaller anytime soon and I definitely think Harper is going to get 40 plus per year.

 

Harper has actually had 2 bad seasons out of the last 3.

 

I just don't understand how the money can keep growing. At the end of the day it's the average fan paying the bills, and the average fan doesn't just keep getting richer. Something doesn't compute.

[Eddy Ballgame]

Harper has actually had 2 bad seasons out of the last 3.

 

I just don't understand how the money can keep growing. At the end of the day it's the average fan paying the bills, and the average fan doesn't just keep getting richer. Something doesn't compute.

 

I agree, but the new TV contracts have a lot of ownership groups printing money. Harper's shoulder injury surely didn't help, but if he's healthy the next two seasons, my guess is that he'Il get a record deal eclipsing 400 million.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree, but the new TV contracts have a lot of ownership groups printing money. Harper's shoulder injury surely didn't help, but if he's healthy the next two seasons, my guess is that he'Il get a record deal eclipsing 400 million.

 

Just for funsies I'm going to disagree. I don't think anyone will get 400 million. 400 million would be a 23% increase over the current record holder, Stanton, whose deal is off to a very shaky start.

[moonslav59]

Betts might be looking for a 10 year deal after becoming a FA, so he may want a 14 year deal from us , if we approached him now.$350M/10 + $50M/4= $400M/14.

[Eddy Ballgame]

Just for funsies I'm going to disagree. I don't think anyone will get 400 million. 400 million would be a 23% increase over the current record holder, Stanton, whose deal is off to a very shaky start.

 

You could be right. Time will tell. Harper will be 26 when he reaches free agency. A team like the Yankees with presumably a lot of money to spend, some young talent to build around and a little league right field porch, might want to make Harper an offer he can't refuse. Harper certainly doesn't seem to be a guy who doesn't enjoy the "bright lights," either.

[Kimmi]

The point of locking a player up before he hits free agency is to get a team friendly deal. The player gets financial security earlier than he otherwise would. If we're paying free agent prices to a player under team control, it kind of defeats the purpose.

[a700hitter]

hes not a FA until 2021.

a 5 or 6 year deal now would be silly IMO. after the '19 season is the time to lock down a 6 year deal.

I agree. I see no point to signing him to a 6 year deal at this time. I don't see the possibility of such a deal saving the Red Sox much money or extending his time with the Red Sox by much.

[mvp 78]

As long as they do their best to keep him a Red Sox for his entire career, I'll be happy. Don't try to Lester him is all I'm saying...

[moonslav59]

I'd like to see Bogey and JBJ with one more full season under their belts, before I look to set a price on a long term extension.

 

Bogey will have 2 more years after 2017. JBJ three.

 

I'm fine with extending Betts at anytime, but with the tight luxury tax budget this winter, waiting another year makes sense.

[cp176]

As long as they do their best to keep him a Red Sox for his entire career, I'll be happy. Don't try to Lester him is all I'm saying...

 

Should we try to Pedroia him? (Can't help it)

[moonslav59]

Should we try to Pedroia him? (Can't help it)

 

Some felt the Lester offer was in line with the Pedey "home discount offer".

[mvp 78]

Some felt the Lester offer was in line with the Pedey "home discount offer".

 

It was well below the Pedey offer imo.

 

Wasn't Pedroia the highest paid 2b when the contract was signed?

[mvp 78]

The most Pedroia will be paid in straight salary over the life of a contract is the $16 million he will earn in 2018. The average annual value of his contract is $13.75 million, which ranks second among MLB second basemen to Ian Kinsler of the Texas Rangers, who signed a five-year, $75 million contract extension early in the 2012 season that pays him an average annual salary of $15 million, with $16 million his highest single-season salary.

 

Not THAT much of a hometown discount.

[moonslav59]

Pedey signed his deal 1.5 years after his MVP season. The deal also replaced the final option year of his previous deal with just a $1.5M raise that year (actually $1M, if you count the $500K buyout).

 

Every baseball expert agreed he took a significant "hometown discount" at the time. He was just 29 when he signed the extension ($110M/8).

 

The following fall, Cano signed for $240M/10.

Ellsbury $153M/7

Choo signed for $130M/7

Pence $90M/5

 

I didn't say I agreed with those who said Lester's offer was similar to Pedey's, but when a player says he's willing to take a hometown discount, one wonders by how much he means. $70M/4 is $17.5M a year, which is $4M more than Pedey, but the market had changed over that year. Clearly a great SP'er is worth more than a recent MVP 2Bman, but in light of what Pedey too compared to Cano, one can reason that $17.5M is about in proportion to Pedey's "underpay". (Not me arguing.)

 

Look, I totally blame Sox brass for low-balling Lester. I thought it was a message that they did want him anymore. It was a horrible mistake on many levels. Perhaps the whole chicken gate fiasco poisoned their minds on everyone.

 

The last ditch $130M/6 offer was either a charade to save face or an admission that they woefully underbid the first time.

 

What sealed the mistake for me was the fact that when they didn't even hear back, they should have immediately offered $114M/6 with the stipulation that there's room to move (maybe with a 7th year $20M option with a $6M buyout- making it a $120M/6 or $134M/7 year second offer).

 

I'm not defending the offer, but let's not forget, Lester had his worst two ERA+ years in 2011 and 2012. After the fact, his 2014 and 2016 seasons have been his best two. He had the 29th best pitcher WAR from 2012-2013. He wasn't close to second best like Pedey was. He had the 53rd best ERA- from 2012-2013.

 

It's easy to looik back, after his awesome 2014 season, and say the initial offer was way off base. My beef was more over the lack of a quick second substantial offer boost.

[mvp 78]

Pedey signed his deal 1.5 years after his MVP season.

 

He signed his contract in June of 2013. He won the MVP in 2008.

 

?

[Bellhorn04]

He signed his contract in June of 2013. He won the MVP in 2008.

 

?

 

The original contract extension he signed was in December/08.

[moonslav59]

He signed his contract in June of 2013. He won the MVP in 2008.

 

?

 

I meant to say finished in the top 10 in the MVP of 2011. My bad.

 

(He also finsihed 7th in MVP in 2013. Cano finished 5th in 2013.

[moonslav59]

The original contract extension he signed was in December/08.

 

The comp was made about Pedey's last extension signed in 2013.

[Kimmi]

Pedroia took a fair home team discount, but that's the trade off that a player accepts to receive long term security before he becomes a free agent. If a player is looking to get free agent money while he's still in his arb years, then the team is assuming all the risk while the player assumes none.

 

Don't insult the player with a Lester type offer, but also don't talk about these crazy 10 year deals @ $30 mil per year when a player is several years away from free agency.

[moonslav59]

Pedroia took a fair home team discount, but that's the trade off that a player accepts to receive long term security before he becomes a free agent. If a player is looking to get free agent money while he's still in his arb years, then the team is assuming all the risk while the player assumes none.

 

Don't insult the player with a Lester type offer, but also don't talk about these crazy 10 year deals @ $30 mil per year when a player is several years away from free agency.

 

Pedey's "hometown discount" extension was signed with just a year at $10M and an option year at $11M ($500K buyout) remaining.

 

He ended up getting $12.5M and $12.5M those two years, which is $4M more to give up his FA rights. I'd say it was a very significant discount.

 

Lester was one year away from free agency. He wasn't giving up arb years or much of anything. He was going to be a FA in a year.

 

Comparing the two was probably a mistake by me, but I remember some posters on "that other site" bring up the "hometown discount" Pedey took to try and justify why the Sox might have hoped Lester would take a similar "discount". I didn't agree then, and I don't agree now, but I don't blame the Sox for trying to see what type of discount he meant. They clearly went way too low, but $17.5M was not chump change a half year after the Pedey deal.