2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread

[moonslav59]

Iglesias was never going to get to play full time at his natural position here. Going after Jake Peavy and using Iglesias as part of the bait was the right decision when it was made.

 

I hated the trade, but within the context and realization that Iggy was never going to be our FT SS, we essentially traded a utility IF'er for a solid SP'er.

 

As much as I hated the idea, since I wanted Bogey at 3B and Iggy at SS, the trade made sense.

[harmony]

Lindor is not all that much better than Bogaerts. They're within 1 WAR of each other. You are really underselling Bradley in a deal like that. I do think Lindor is, and is going to remain, a better shortstop than Bogaerts, but trading Bogaerts in a roughly sideways move that also costs us another high performance player is an exercise in outsmarting ourselves.

To be precise, this year Francisco Lindor posted 6.3 fWAR and 5.7 bWAR while Xander Bogaerts posted 4.7 fWAR and 3.7 bWAR.

 

The 24-year-old Bogaerts remains under team control for three increasingly expensive arbitration seasons while Lindor, who is 13 months younger than Bogaerts, remains under team control for five seasons.

 

As a likely Super Two, 26-year-old Jackie Bradley remains under team control for four increasingly expensive arbitration seasons.

[moonslav59]

It should be noted that in the last 2 years Iglesias has provided the Tigers 1.5 and 1.8 bWAR. Less in 2 years combined than Bogaerts provided us in this year alone.

 

Then, it should also be noted that we got these WARs in return....

 

Peavy 2013 1.0

Peavy 2014 0.2

 

Then, we essentially traded Peavy for Hembree...

Hembree 2016 0.3

Hembree 2014 -0.1

Hembree 2015 -0.2

 

I see a net WAR or +1.2 with more upside for Hembree possible.

 

Fangraphs had Igg's WAR as...

 

2013: 0.8 w/DET (1.9 both teams)

2014: 0.0 (injured)

2015: 1.6

2016: 2.1

Total: +4.5

[Kimmi]

Well, yes. It's easy to have an opinion when one has hindsight to help them but I was opposed to this trade right from Day 1. Not so much that I had a "man-crush" on Iggy but because I could see the value of having both of those cost-controlled outstanding players on the left side of the IF going into the future.

 

I had no objection to their picking up a pitcher (although I still don't think a. that we needed one, and b. that his contribution was that significant) but they gave up too much to get that pitcher. It was a panic move that looks better in the context of the WS Championship.

 

I know that you were against the trade from the get go.

 

IMO, it was hardly a panic move. We needed a pitcher. Iglesias was expendable. We were dealing from an area of strength.

 

As I said, I would make that trade under the same circumstances every day of the week.

[Kimmi]

Calling it a 'panic move' is absurd. They were in contention for a championship, they did need a starting pitcher, and there's this thing called the trade deadline that tends to impact the urgency of making a move.

 

Making a trade like this is also a vote of confidence to the team.

[southpaw777]

Thanks for the answer. i think that I actually agree with you. I'm not sure the Red Sox have seen any of these guys perform long enough for them to have totally made up their minds yet though. if they decide to upgrade starting pitching for real this year, someone is going to get traded. Whoever goes, there is bound to be a lot of head shaking. Other than make a big play for a dh, they might not do anything. it might be enough. On the other hand they might just sit tight. I hope not though. A power bat and a totr guy and this team rolls along. Outfielders can be replaced. i don't want John Henry to horde his money!

 

NP:cool:

i think they know what Betts is, and a good idea with JBJ.. But yes, overall they are still young and still have some maturing to do. Im looking at pitching before a bat, but could use both...i just think a need for a starter and a bullpen arm are more of a need. We still have a solid offense.

DD will be in the market for a new GM as well with Hazen off to Arizona.

[southpaw777]

I was not happy with Bogaerts seeming to be bothered by being moved to 3B in 2014. If I'm not mistaken, he made a comment admitting to this. I believe he saw it as some sort of 'demotion', that he was moved to 3rd because the FO thought Drew was a better shortstop.

 

If that was the case, and I'm not saying that it was, then I have problem with that. Maybe it was just immaturity, I don't know.

 

IMO, Bogaerts should have taken that move as a positive and ran with it. He should have approached it as the FO saying thank goodness that Bogey can play 3rd base because there are no other 3rd basemen available. He should have approached it with a 'whatever the team needs me to do' attitude.

 

He simply stated that he was very uncomfortable over there which is expected because he's never played there before except a few games in 2013... people forget that he was only 20-21...and yes, it was kind of a demotion. Farrell had zero patients because Xander made a couple errors early on looked a bit shakey. Once again, he was 20-21 yo...so he was moved over the third and Ben actually brought Stephen Drew back, so why wouldnt he think of it as a demotion? it was a stupid move in the first place. First of many major blunders by Farrell

Edited October 17, 2016 by southpaw777

[Nick]

He simply stated that he was very uncomfortable over there which is expected because he's never played there before except a few games in 2013... people forget that he was only 20-21...and yes, it was kind of a demotion. Farrell had zero patients because Xander made a couple errors early on looked a bit shakey. Once again, he was 20-21 yo...so he was moved over the third and Ben actually brought Stephen Drew back, so why wouldnt he think of it as a demotion? it was a stupid move in the first place. First of many major blunders by Farrell

 

Wasn't Drew the second player overplayed by his agent Boras? Nothing funnier than a player turning down a qualifying offer with no suitors willing to pay more. Like taking $12M, one year offer is a slap in the face?

[jacksonianmarch]

Lux tax be damned. You've got a title window and you have to take advantage of it

[S5Dewey]

He simply stated that he was very uncomfortable over there which is expected because he's never played there before except a few games in 2013... people forget that he was only 20-21...and yes, it was kind of a demotion. Farrell had zero patients because Xander made a couple errors early on looked a bit shakey. Once again, he was 20-21 yo...so he was moved over the third and Ben actually brought Stephen Drew back, so why wouldnt he think of it as a demotion? it was a stupid move in the first place. First of many major blunders by Farrell

 

Well.. based on the thinking that his being moved from SS to 3B is some kind of a "demotion" - which you've already agreed to - this has left me shaking my head. Is it a demotion of someone is moved to another position because management thinkis that move is in the best interest of the team? This is in the same vein as the discussion about Kimbrel asking for a trade if the Sox pick up Chapman in the off season. Baseball is a team sport and it's not "all about ME".

 

Maybe I'm 'old school'. I think that when a player signs that contract they're agreeing to play whenever and wherever management wants them to play, and do it to the very best of their ability.

[cp176]

Well.. based on the thinking that his being moved from SS to 3B is some kind of a "demotion" - which you've already agreed to - this has left me shaking my head. Is it a demotion of someone is moved to another position because management thinkis that move is in the best interest of the team? This is in the same vein as the discussion about Kimbrel asking for a trade if the Sox pick up Chapman in the off season. Baseball is a team sport and it's not "all about ME".

 

Maybe I'm 'old school'. I think that when a player signs that contract they're agreeing to play whenever and wherever management wants them to play, and do it to the very best of their ability.

 

Did you read somewhere that Kimbrel said that he would ask for a trade if the Sox were to pick up Chapman? I could have missed it I guess. I haven't heard or read about the sox even asking about Chapman.

[S5Dewey]

Lux tax be damned. You've got a title window and you have to take advantage of it

 

This is nice and from a fan's POV I agree with it. However, JH may look at it differently. As I've said before here, these owners are businessmen. If they can't make money doing something they don't want to do it. They didn't get rich by losing money.

 

I'm confident that the bean counters in Boston and New York (and probably anyplace else) know just about how much money they will make by playing in the ALDS and how much more they will make by advancing to the ALCS and then to the WS. It's all about Return on Investment. If that luxury tax pushes them to the point where the team can't get the ROI that they expect they're not going to do it.

[S5Dewey]

Did you read somewhere that Kimbrel said that he would ask for a trade if the Sox were to pick up Chapman? I could have missed it I guess. I haven't heard or read about the sox even asking about Chapman.

 

Nope. What I said was there's been a discussion about it, and there has been, both about picking up Chapman and what Kimbrel's reaction might be.

[S5Dewey]

And that doesn't negate my point that when a player signs the contract the team 'owns' that player and they should be able to put the player wherever they want and expect the player to continue to perform at their top level.

[moonslav59]

Lux tax be damned. You've got a title window and you have to take advantage of it

 

I hope you're right, and maybe this will be the year we say, "screw the comp picks" and go out and sign EE, Turner and Jensen. Keep all the kids, and let them sort themselves out. We can always make trades later.

 

 

However, a 50% luxury tax is not easy to swallow, especially when you consider Henry is also paying Craig and Castillo on the side above and beyond the luxury tax.

[Slasher9]

This is nice and from a fan's POV I agree with it. However, JH may look at it differently. As I've said before here, these owners are businessmen. If they can't make money doing something they don't want to do it. They didn't get rich by losing money.

 

I'm confident that the bean counters in Boston and New York (and probably anyplace else) know just about how much money they will make by playing in the ALDS and how much more they will make by advancing to the ALCS and then to the WS. It's all about Return on Investment. If that luxury tax pushes them to the point where the team can't get the ROI that they expect they're not going to do it.

 

a yankees fan POV.

John Henry will 100% reset the LT rate by not going over the threshold this season. book it. we are the Red Sox not the Yankee$$$$.

[cp176]

Well.. based on the thinking that his being moved from SS to 3B is some kind of a "demotion" - which you've already agreed to - this has left me shaking my head. Is it a demotion of someone is moved to another position because management thinkis that move is in the best interest of the team? This is in the same vein as the discussion about Kimbrel asking for a trade if the Sox pick up Chapman in the off season. Baseball is a team sport and it's not "all about ME".

 

Maybe I'm 'old school'. I think that when a player signs that contract they're agreeing to play whenever and wherever management wants them to play, and do it to the very best of their ability.

 

Where did you read or hear anything about Kimbrel being upset about anything other than his own performance?

[S5Dewey]

Where did you read or hear anything about Kimbrel being upset about anything other than his own performance?

 

C & P from another thread:

Nope. What I said was there's been a discussion about it, and there has been, both about picking up Chapman and what Kimbrel's reaction might be.

[Nick]

I hope you're right, and maybe this will be the year we say, "screw the comp picks" and go out and sign EE, Turner and Jensen. Keep all the kids, and let them sort themselves out. We can always make trades later.

 

 

However, a 50% luxury tax is not easy to swallow, especially when you consider Henry is also paying Craig and Castillo on the side above and beyond the luxury tax.

 

We paid $30M penalty (100%) to acquire Moncada. I don't think Sox will go LA Dodgers but going over by $10M and paying $5M penalty won't dissuade Henry from going for another Division title.

 

We did have some pieces come off the payroll, Ortiz, Koji, Taz and Hanigan ($32M). Young is set to come off next year and Kimbrel has a club option. (savings could total $20M if internal replacements are available for the two....maybe Kelly and/or Smith, Kopech arrives in 2018)

 

Moon has projected current luxury tax payroll for 2017 Sox at $185M. I think Henry will live with say $225M. That has Clay B's option baked in it. So what can we buy with $40M?

Edited October 17, 2016 by Nick

[Dojji]

Dream big guys

 

To the Seattle Mariners

Blake Swihart

Yoan Moncada

Sam Travis

Mauricio Dubon

Michael Kopech

 

To the Boston Red Sox

Felix Hernandez

Edwin Diaz

Prospect

 

King Felix is at least as available as Quintana or Sale, he's getting a little older (about to turn 31) with a ton of miles on his arm, is super expensive, and with the Mariners in a holding pattern for years now, may be willing to take a trade to a winner, or even ask for one. The Mariners may be willing to trade their top asset for a sufficient boatload of prospects in order to retool. THe Sox would be gambling heavily of course, since 2016 was King Felix's worst FIP year of his career, but nothing ventured nothing gained.

 

One thing is certain, the Mariners are one of the best possible trade targets this year, they need so many of the things we have, in particular their catching is putrid and would benefit from any one of the 3 young catchers we have rattling around, especially Swihart because of their general lack of offense.

 

Also if I thought there was any chance we could score Kyle Seager, that would be one of the trades in which I'd be thrilled to commit Moncada. However Seager has a very very team friendly contract, so I doubt that's a thing.

[mvp 78]

C & P from another thread:

Nope. What I said was there's been a discussion about it, and there has been, both about picking up Chapman and what Kimbrel's reaction might be.

 

Farrell could just sit down either guy and say "did you see how the closers were used in the playoffs? That's what we want to do going forward." Feed into their ego. We can't just see every guy we don't like as some sort of man-baby. I'm always surprised at the number of professional psychologists on this board.

[mvp 78]

Dream big guys

 

To the Seattle Mariners

Blake Swihart

Yoan Moncada

Sam Travis

Mauricio Dubon

Michael Kopech

 

To the Boston Red Sox

Felix Hernandez

Edwin Diaz

Prospect

 

King Felix is at least as available as Quintana or Sale, he's getting a little older (about to turn 31) with a ton of miles on his arm, is super expensive, and with the Mariners in a holding pattern for years now, may be willing to take a trade to a winner, or even ask for one. The Mariners may be willing to trade their top asset for a sufficient boatload of prospects in order to retool. THe Sox would be gambling heavily of course, since 2016 was King Felix's worst FIP year of his career, but nothing ventured nothing gained.

 

One thing is certain, the Mariners are one of the best possible trade targets this year, they need so many of the things we have, in particular their catching is putrid and would benefit from any one of the 3 young catchers we have rattling around, especially Swihart because of their general lack of offense.

 

Also if I thought there was any chance we could score Kyle Seager, that would be one of the trades in which I'd be thrilled to commit Moncada. However Seager has a very very team friendly contract, so I doubt that's a thing.

 

I'd do that deal in a second, but I don't think the Mariners would.

[cp176]

C & P from another thread:

Nope. What I said was there's been a discussion about it, and there has been, both about picking up Chapman and what Kimbrel's reaction might be.

 

If has been discussed here, I sure as hell have missed it. I'm sure that you would agree that when people start "suggesting" what others are thinking based on nothing that character assassination follows. We have been down this road unfortunately before with Hanley. Bogaerts name has even been recently been brought up because of his response (i guess) at being moved from short to third - what - 2 years ago. Over the past 2 years this kid has done nothing but work his ass off to be as good as he can become. Even bringing up that tired old story is flat out ********.

[Dojji]

It's a question of whether Felix may be concerned that his career is drawing past its peak and he hasn't gotten to the top yet. If he starts needling for a trade, this deal would get done on both sides, if he's happy where he is, he can block the trade whether or not it's a good deal.

[S5Dewey]

Dream big guys

 

To the Seattle Mariners

Blake Swihart

Yoan Moncada

Sam Travis

Mauricio Dubon

Michael Kopech

 

To the Boston Red Sox

Felix Hernandez

Edwin Diaz

Prospect

 

I'm in with this in spite of the caveats that come with Felix. I'm of the belief that his best years are behind him and that his numbers this year are somewhat inflated by playing those two California teams + the Astros 19 times. The AL West isn't exactly the AL East. But I'd take that chance.

[Nick]

Can E Rod turn into Lester? He looks to have the potential of becoming an ace. How do their careers compare to this point?

They both entered mlb at age 22. Similar start for both. Lester then took off at age 24. I think E Rod has that potential. Getting out

of tough spots. Not sure if the quality of pitches are there for E Rod. But if he can consistently deliver 3 pitches, can he get there?

Edited October 17, 2016 by Nick

[Dojji]

Reluctant to hang Lester on E-Rod. He can be a decent power lefty. Lester is somewhat better than "a decent power lefty."

[Nick]

If has been discussed here, I sure as hell have missed it. I'm sure that you would agree that when people start "suggesting" what others are thinking based on nothing that character assassination follows. We have been down this road unfortunately before with Hanley. Bogaerts name has even been recently been brought up because of his response (i guess) at being moved from short to third - what - 2 years ago. Over the past 2 years this kid has done nothing but work his ass off to be as good as he can become. Even bringing up that tired old story is flat out ********.

 

I agree and I especially think it was BS that JF clinged to Drew so much. We gave him a qualifying offer and he thumbed his nose at what $12M QO? There were too much noise in April/May trying to get Drew back and play SS for us. That was just a bs. I hate that about JF. Always bringing back retreads.....move on man.

[Nick]

Here's something from Sox Prospects with new rankings...

 

 

Not many changes to talk about in the top 15 or so but the staff has made a number changes in the rest of the top 60.

 

Summary

Yoan Moncada is still number one and his ceiling is now 8.

The twin who's still here, Luis Alexander Basabe, moved up one spot to # 7.

Luis Ysla and Mike Shawaryn are both up 3 to 18 and 19 respectively.

Victor Diaz rose a whopping 28 spots in the rankings from 49 to 21. Throws almost as hard as Kopech with better secondary pitches. (that's me commenting)

Travis Lakins dropped from 17 to 22.

Shaun Anderson fell from 20 to 23.

Gerson Bautista jumped from 38 to 28.

Brian Mata, a 17 year signed as an IFA in January (at age 16), is ranked for the first time at # 34.

Deven Marrero fell 10 positions landing at # 38.

Bryce Brents also fell, coming in this month at 39 from 32 on 9/1.

Austin Glorius is down 8 from 37 to 45.

Marc Brakeman down from 40 to 48.

Tyler Hill rose from 51 to 47.

Robby Scott is at # 50. He was last ranked 58th back in February.

Austin Rei down from 45 to 52.

Lorenzo Cedrola rose from 58 to 54.

Roldani Baldwin is at 59, a notch higher than the previous time he was ranked back on 8/1.

 

 

Read more: http://forum.soxprospects.com/thread/3254/soxprospects-rankings-discussion?page=5#ixzz4NLmtccKr

Edited October 17, 2016 by Nick

[Nick]

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/10/13/sean-mcadam-red-sox-will-zero-in-on-edwin-encarnacion-in-free-agency/

 

Sox looks to be a player for EE sweepstake.