A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

My projected opening day roster (assuming 100% healthy, except Carson Smith):

 

12 Pitchers:

Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod Wright, Pom

Kimbrel, Thornburg, Kelly, Ross, Barnes, Abad (Hembree placed on phantom DL)

2 Catchers:

Leon & Vaz (Swihart in AAA)

7 Infielders:

HanRam, Moreland, Pedroia, Holt, Bogaerts, Sandoval, Rutledge (Hernandez & Travis in AAA)

4 Outfielders:

Benintendi, JBJ, Betts, Young (Lake & Castillo in AAA with Brentz DFA'd)

 

 

[moonslav59]

Man o man! The Dodgers are looking like an all star team. One wonders how long they can continually under perform.

 

On paper, here's how I'd rank teams:

 

1 Cubs

1B Dodgers

3 Red Sox

3B Guardians

5 Nats

[notin]

Ya.. was BC the one who masterminded the plan of telling the fans that a rotation of Porcello, Masterson, Buchholz, Miley and Joe Kelley would be good enough ? I hate it when someone pisses on my shoes and tells me that it's raining.

 

 

Didn't the team that won the World Series that year have an opening day rotation of Edinson Volquez, Chris Young, Yordano Ventura, Danny Duffy, and Jeremy Guthrie? Is that really so much better?

 

It's not all about the rotation.

[notin]

My projected opening day roster (assuming 100% healthy, except Carson Smith):

 

12 Pitchers:

Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod Wright, Pom

Kimbrel, Thornburg, Kelly, Ross, Barnes, Abad (Hembree placed on phantom DL)

2 Catchers:

Leon & Vaz (Swihart in AAA)

7 Infielders:

HanRam, Moreland, Pedroia, Holt, Bogaerts, Sandoval, Rutledge (Hernandez & Travis in AAA)

4 Outfielders:

Benintendi, JBJ, Betts, Young (Lake & Castillo in AAA with Brentz DFA'd)

 

 

 

It's also possible Hembree makes the roster and Barnes starts the season in AAA.

 

Hembree was the more effective reliever of the two last season. ...

[moonslav59]

It's also possible Hembree makes the roster and Barnes starts the season in AAA.

 

Hembree was the more effective reliever of the two last season. ...

 

That certainly could be an option as Barnes has 2 options remaining.

 

I see no way we DFA Hembree. If he is stinking up the place in ST'ing we'll DL him for some reason or another.

 

I have always liked Hembree and would prefer him over Abad as well, but I think they have this idea that we need a lefty. We obtained Thorburg, and he has one of MLB's widest reverse splits. Lefties have a 200 point lower OPS against him than righties. We also have Ross, and if I had my way, Pom would be in the pen.

[S5Dewey]

Didn't the team that won the World Series that year have an opening day rotation of Edinson Volquez, Chris Young, Yordano Ventura, Danny Duffy, and Jeremy Guthrie? Is that really so much better?

 

It's not all about the rotation.

 

2014 records:

 

Kansas City

Edison Volquez: 13-7

Chris Young 12-9

Yorlando Ventura 14-10

Danny Duffy 9-12

Jeremy Guthrie 13-11

 

Total 64-49

 

Boston

Rick Porcello 15-13

Justin Masterson 7-9 (with 2 teams)

Clay Buchholz 8-11

Wade Miley 8-12

Joe Kelly 6-4

 

Total 44-49

 

Based on their most recent years the KC staff was 20 wins better than the Sox on opening day. IMO that is so much better. It's not all about the rotation, but the rotation certainly is an indicator.

 

There were some of us who were trying to buy into what the FO was saying but I'd guess that most of us were just 'whistling past the graveyard'.

[Spudboy]

That doesn't seem to stop you!

 

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!1!!!1!

 

No offense Moon! Hahahahahhahaha!!!

 

I may have to start as thread. oye.

[moonslav59]

2014 records:

 

Kansas City

Edison Volquez: 13-7

Chris Young 12-9

Yorlando Ventura 14-10

Danny Duffy 9-12

Jeremy Guthrie 13-11

 

Total 64-49

 

Boston

Rick Porcello 15-13

Justin Masterson 7-9 (with 2 teams)

Clay Buchholz 8-11

Wade Miley 8-12

Joe Kelly 6-4

 

Total 44-49

 

Based on their most recent years the KC staff was 20 wins better than the Sox on opening day. IMO that is so much better. It's not all about the rotation, but the rotation certainly is an indicator.

 

There were some of us who were trying to buy into what the FO was saying but I'd guess that most of us were just 'whistling past the graveyard'.

 

I agree, but I did expect Porcello to do much better in 2015. I guess we could have expected an adjustment period, but the guy had been in the league a long time. Had he done like he did last year in 2015, maybe some would be looking at BC differently. Miley sucked in 2014, but he had been pretty good before, especially away from AZ. Buch was always a question mark with huge promise. I had some faith in Kelly but was totally down on Masterson.

 

I think Ben felt the offense would be greatly improved with HanRam and Pablo, which was not a stretch to think. The pen looked decent. I don't think he felt we had a championship team with that rotation, but certainly the Royals rotation did not look worthy either, even when looking at their 2015 numbers.

 

I don't want to put words in notin's mouth, as he is a quality wordsmith on his own, but I think he meant that our rotation in 2015 could have put up similar numbers as the 2015 Royals did, and in fact they were pretty close.

 

13-9 Volquez 3.55/1.31 WHIP

13-8 Ventura 4.08/1.30

8-8 Guthrie 5.95/1.55 (one of the worst starters in MLB that year)

7-8 Duffy 4.08/1.39

11-6 C Young 3.06/1.09 (out of nowhere)

5-2 Vargas 3.98/1.35

(They picked up Cueto at the deadline.)

 

Sox in 2015

11-11 Miley 4.46/1.37

9-15 Porcello 4.92/1.36

10-6 J Kelly 4.82/1.44

10-6 ERod 3.85/1.29

7-7 Buch 3.26/1.21

5-4 Wright 4.09/1.29

 

2015 SP

WAR

BOS 12.6

KCR 8.3

 

ERA-

BOS 104

KCR 105

 

WHIP

BOS 1.33

KCR 1.37

Edited January 24, 2017 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Our 2015 bullpen wasn't the greatest either.

[moonslav59]

Our 2015 bullpen wasn't the greatest either.

 

Way worse than the Royals.

[Emp9]

Our 2015 bullpen wasn't the greatest either.

 

That and KC's BP re-redefined how you could put together a winner. So much so, that it influenced many teams to try and do the same. Probably part of the reason why Kimbrel costs soo much.

[moonslav59]

Had we just signed Lester or Scherzer, instead of Pablo & Masterson...

[Nick]

Had we just signed Lester or Scherzer, instead of Pablo & Masterson...[/QUO

 

Lester debacle was the greatest sin. Instead of building on 2013 success, we hit the stupid reset button.

[moonslav59]

Had we just signed Lester or Scherzer, instead of Pablo & Masterson...[/QUO

 

Lester debacle was the greatest sin. Instead of building on 2013 success, we hit the stupid reset button.

 

It was a major cluster you-know-what, but we had the money to sign Scherzer instead of Pablo & Masterson, so we had a chance to redeem ourselves somewhat.

[Nick]

 

It was a major cluster you-know-what, but we had the money to sign Scherzer instead of Pablo & Masterson, so we had a chance to redeem ourselves somewhat.

 

I'm a firm believer in paying top money for top players.

 

I had issues with Sox for signing players on the cheap. Justification was that well it was only a one year deal. The $9.5M throw way on Masterson was perfect example. Why not spend $10M more and get something closer to a sure thing. It's been rehashed here several times.

 

We used to always go for the fence, or buying a lottery ticket is more like it. An expensive ticket.

[Bellhorn04]

That and KC's BP re-redefined how you could put together a winner. So much so, that it influenced many teams to try and do the same. Probably part of the reason why Kimbrel costs soo much.

 

And this was only ramped up in 2016 with Miller, Chapman and Jansen.

 

5/86 for Chapman is one of the craziest contracts yet.

[S5Dewey]

I

I don't want to put words in notin's mouth, as he is a quality wordsmith on his own, but I think he meant that our rotation in 2015 could have put up similar numbers as the 2015 Royals did, and in fact they were pretty close.

 

IMO the discussion at that time was about opening day expectations of the pitching staff. The quote I was responding to was:

 

"Didn't the team that won the World Series that year have an opening day rotation of Edinson Volquez, Chris Young, Yordano Ventura, Danny Duffy, and Jeremy Guthrie?

Is that really so much better? "

 

I then documented that based on their 2014 performances anyone would believe that the Royal's starters would perform better than the Sox starters would. The fact that the Royals starters had a combined 2014 WHIP of slightly over 6.100 and the Sox starters had a 2014 WHIP of almost exactly 7.00 reinforces my point. So again, yes, their opening day rotation was "so much better".

 

Now having the benefit of 20-20 hindsight we can see that it didn't work out that way, but for the purposes of this discussion that's beside the point.

 

We're now at the point in the winter when pretty soon some scribe is going to come up with the same thing - that it's spring and fans everywhere think their team has a chance to win the WS. That's wishful thinking, just like it was wishful thinking that our 2015 opening day pitching staff was good enough to compete. IMO most of use knew deep down inside that wasn't true but being optimistic fans bought into what was being told to us because it was what we wanted to believe.

[moonslav59]

 

I'm a firm believer in paying top money for top players.

 

I had issues with Sox for signing players on the cheap. Justification was that well it was only a one year deal. The $9.5M throw way on Masterson was perfect example. Why not spend $10M more and get something closer to a sure thing. It's been rehashed here several times.

 

We used to always go for the fence, or buying a lottery ticket is more like it. An expensive ticket.

 

Yes, those one year $9.5M contracts given every year add up.

 

I used to call it the "quantity vs quality" argument. I prefer top quality than amassing a bunch of mediocre players in hopes a couple rise to the top and give you a career or outlier season.

 

The other issue has been paying top dollar for not so top players like Pablo and Crawford.

[moonslav59]

IMO the discussion at that time was about opening day expectations of the pitching staff. The quote I was responding to was:

 

"Didn't the team that won the World Series that year have an opening day rotation of Edinson Volquez, Chris Young, Yordano Ventura, Danny Duffy, and Jeremy Guthrie?

Is that really so much better? "

 

I then documented that based on their 2014 performances anyone would believe that the Royal's starters would perform better than the Sox starters would. The fact that the Royals starters had a combined 2014 WHIP of slightly over 6.100 and the Sox starters had a 2014 WHIP of almost exactly 7.00 reinforces my point. So again, yes, their opening day rotation was "so much better".

 

Now having the benefit of 20-20 hindsight we can see that it didn't work out that way, but for the purposes of this discussion that's beside the point.

 

We're now at the point in the winter when pretty soon some scribe is going to come up with the same thing - that it's spring and fans everywhere think their team has a chance to win the WS. That's wishful thinking, just like it was wishful thinking that our 2015 opening day pitching staff was good enough to compete. IMO most of use knew deep down inside that wasn't true but being optimistic fans bought into what was being told to us because it was what we wanted to believe.

 

I understood your point, and I did get away from it in my response. Your point was a good one, however, I do think using just 2014 numbers short-changed Miley and to some extent Porcello.

 

I think expectations were higher than 15-13 for Porcello and 8-12 for Miley and justifiably so.

 

Don't get me wrong, I hated that rotation and was irate over the Masterson signing. At no time since Henry took over the team did we need to sign an ace more than pre-2015 (and by extension pre-2016 since we didn't get one during the season either). I'm always for only rebuilding a rotation from the top. It's almost always a mistake to throw money at trying to slightly improve your 5th starter by signing a better 5th starter or decent 4th starter type.

[Kimmi]

We're now at the point in the winter when pretty soon some scribe is going to come up with the same thing - that it's spring and fans everywhere think their team has a chance to win the WS. That's wishful thinking, just like it was wishful thinking that our 2015 opening day pitching staff was good enough to compete. IMO most of use knew deep down inside that wasn't true but being optimistic fans bought into what was being told to us because it was what we wanted to believe.

 

I sincerely thought the pitching staff would be good enough to compete. I didn't think they would be great. They weren't supposed to be great. They were supposed to be merely mediocre, and the offense and defense were supposed to hold them up. IMO, the offense let the team down in many games.

 

That is not my preferred method for putting together a team, but really, it should have worked.

[Bellhorn04]

Ben rolled the dice big time with that 2015 pitching staff. He bet upside and he got downside. If he had done a better job with the bullpen we might have been OK.

[jacksonianmarch]

The 2014 Royals had Davis, Herrera and Holland. The 15 Royals had the same before Hollands arm exploded. The Royals had a passable rotation, excellent defense, excellent pen work and a good offense capable of scraping together a run using small ball or big ball. They were a chameleon capable of winning games 2-1 or 10-9

[moonslav59]

The 2014 Royals had Davis, Herrera and Holland. The 15 Royals had the same before Hollands arm exploded. The Royals had a passable rotation, excellent defense, excellent pen work and a good offense capable of scraping together a run using small ball or big ball. They were a chameleon capable of winning games 2-1 or 10-9

 

They also had speed.

 

The point made, however, was a strong rotation in April (on paper) or in October for real is not needed to make it to the dance or win it.

 

There is also a recent history (last 15 years) of several teams making it to or winning the WS with one or two of their top 5 starters having an ERA above 5.00.

[S5Dewey]

At the end of the day there is no "silver bullet" that guarantees a WSC. There have been teams with CY winners, BA, HR, or RBI champions - and multiple combinations of them - and they didn't win it. But sometimes they did, too. However, one would think that the more of those guys one team can get together the better that team's chances of winning it all are.

 

If you don't think that then one would have to ask why a team would want those guys.

[moonslav59]

At the end of the day there is no "silver bullet" that guarantees a WSC. There have been teams with CY winners, BA, HR, or RBI champions - and multiple combinations of them - and they didn't win it. But sometimes they did, too. However, one would think that the more of those guys one team can get together the better that team's chances of winning it all are.

 

If you don't think that then one would have to ask why a team would want those guys.

 

I do think building a top rotation, especially the top 3 slots, above all else, improves the odds of making and winning the WS. After all, odds makers look at the starter match-ups more than anything else when setting the odds.

[Bellhorn04]

I do think building a top rotation, especially the top 3 slots, above all else, improves the odds of making and winning the WS. After all, odds makers look at the starter match-ups more than anything else when setting the odds.

 

And yet if you look at recent results, there seems to be an even higher correlation between bullpens and postseason success.

[S5Dewey]

I do think building a top rotation, especially the top 3 slots, above all else, improves the odds of making and winning the WS. After all, odds makers look at the starter match-ups more than anything else when setting the odds.

 

I agree with you completely. I still have to shake my head and wonder how the Tigers didn't win it all in 2013 with a playoff rotation of Verlander, Sherzer and Sanchez or in 2014 with Verlander, Scherzer and Price - Price's post-season problems not withstanding. Crazy things happen.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree with you completely. I still have to shake my head and wonder how the Tigers didn't win it all in 2013 with a playoff rotation of Verlander, Sherzer and Sanchez or in 2014 with Verlander, Scherzer and Price - Price's post-season problems not withstanding. Crazy things happen.

 

How about the 2011 Phillies?

 

Roy Halladay

Cliff Lee

Cole Hamels

Roy Oswalt

 

Lost NLDS 3-2 to Cardinals.

[moonslav59]

And yet if you look at recent results, there seems to be an even higher correlation between bullpens and postseason success.

 

Seems that way, but the Cubs and Guardians did have great SP'ing.

 

2016 ERA-

1) Cubs 71 (1st in WHIP/3rd in WAR)

2) TOR

3) WSH

4) NYM

5) SFG

6) BOS

7) CLE 95 (6th in WHIP/8th in WAR)

 

RP

7) CLE 5.0 WAR (8th in WHIP)

19) Cubs 3.2 WAR (5th in WHIP)

 

2015

SP

NYM 4th in WAR (4th in ERA-/3rd in WHIP)

KCR 23rd in WAR (18th in ERA-/25th in WHIP)

RP

KCR 3rd in WAR (2nd in WHIP)

NYM 12th in WAR (8th in WHIP)

 

[moonslav59]

How about the 2011 Phillies?

 

Roy Halladay

Cliff Lee

Cole Hamels

Roy Oswalt

 

Lost NLDS 3-2 to Cardinals.

 

There are many examples of great top of rotation staffs not winning the WS, but one has to feel better about your odds of winning by having 3-4 top starters.