A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[a700hitter]

Pablo Sandoval gives cryotherapy a try:

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/01/pablo_sandoval_boston_red_sox_11.html#incart_river_index

Hopefully all his work will keep the fans from crying when we watch him play in 2017.

[moonslav59]

As of now, even Bryce Brentz is in front of Castillo. ..

 

It's sad we have nobody better than Bryce in the minors that is ML ready and on the 40 man roster.

[Nick]

It's sad we have nobody better than Bryce in the minors that is ML ready and on the 40 man roster.

 

We have Beni for 6 years, Betts and Bradley for 3 more. Outfield depth needs to be addressed in 2018 but I don't think it will be a major concern.

 

But we are pretty thin everywhere until last year's class move through the system.

[Kimmi]

He'd have to not only be doing great in AAA, Sox scouts and management would have to view those numbers (skills) as being transferable to MLB at a value equal to or more than his luxury tax cost, which is $10.4M.

 

It's not impossible, but I see us trying to find the next de Aza at a fraction of Castillo's cost. I don't see us ever bringing Castillo onto the 40 man roster, except for a brief time in a pinch. With Young, Swihart and Holt ahead of him, IMO, there would have to be some wild things happening for Rusney to be called up.

 

 

I'm not talking about this year. I'm talking about future years, after the tax has been reset and the FO is likely more willing to go over the limit again. I acknowledged that a lot of things had to fall into place for Castillo to be called up. Also, I'm not necessarily talking about a 4th outfielder role, but a starting role. If, heaven forbid, one of our outfielders suffers a long term injury, Castillo could make sense as his replacement.

[Kimmi]

We have Beni for 6 years, Betts and Bradley for 3 more. Outfield depth needs to be addressed in 2018 but I don't think it will be a major concern.

 

But we are pretty thin everywhere until last year's class move through the system.

 

Assuming that our starters stay healthy. As I posted before, making the playoffs often doesn't come down to the starting players, but rather how well a team can cover those starting players in case of injury.

[Emp9]

We have Beni for 6 years, Betts and Bradley for 3 more. .

 

If we're including '17 (which I think we should be), Betts & JBJ 4 yrs, Beni 6 yrs.

 

I like Beni more than I liked Margot. In retrospect, and I'm fully aware of the timeline, but I think we kept the right player (we'll see over the course of their careers who's the better player). Depth-wise, it's tough when all the supposed depth are top 100 prospects and after them a steep cliff. That's sort of been the problem these past few years (Not every position, but OF is one of them). Not that I'm complaining. If we make any other trades from here on out, DD needs to ask for more players back than the one main guy he's targeted. Like, that s***'s gotta' stop.

[Dojji]

It's sad we have nobody better than Bryce in the minors that is ML ready and on the 40 man roster.

 

Swihart? I'd rather be trying Swihart in the outfield if something happened to one of our starting 3 rather than either Brentz or Castillo

[notin]

Swihart? I'd rather be trying Swihart in the outfield if something happened to one of our starting 3 rather than either Brentz or Castillo

 

Supposedly Swihart is not being moved from catcher again.

 

And it's just as well. He's more likely to be needed as a replacement for Vazquez or Leon than he is for Brentz, who won't even be in the majors any time soon. ..

[Bellhorn04]

Good thing we still have Holt, I guess.

[notin]

Good thing we still have Holt, I guess.

 

Don't forget about Junior Lake!

 

 

 

 

Actually on second thought, forget about Junior Lake. ..

[moonslav59]

I'm not talking about this year. I'm talking about future years, after the tax has been reset and the FO is likely more willing to go over the limit again. I acknowledged that a lot of things had to fall into place for Castillo to be called up. Also, I'm not necessarily talking about a 4th outfielder role, but a starting role. If, heaven forbid, one of our outfielders suffers a long term injury, Castillo could make sense as his replacement.

 

Yes, I was talking about next year and beyond as well.

 

Just because the luxury tax rate will be reset, it won't mean Castillo's contract is much more attractive. $10.4M at 50% is $15.6M, but at 20%, it's still $12.5M. I'm not sure the $3M differential will make a big impact on the decision to add Castillo to the 40 man roster or just find another de Aza type at a fraction of the cost.

 

Even though we lose Young, Moreland and Abad, the arb raises will just about eat all those savings up. Hopefully Devers can replace Moreland (Pablo to 1B?) and Swihart can replace Young, but my guess is, we add a 1B/OF type player.

 

I just don't see us ever calling up Castillo for more than a few weeks in an emergency, and then DFA'ing him again. For us to add him for a full season, he's going to have to prove he can earn that money. Even with an 1.000 OPS at AAA this year, I'm still not sure that would be enough for management to bring him up long term. I suppose, if we intend to bring him up for a 3-4 week stretch while an OF'er recovers from injury, and he does very well while up, then things could change.

 

I think those are long odds.

[moonslav59]

Swihart? I'd rather be trying Swihart in the outfield if something happened to one of our starting 3 rather than either Brentz or Castillo

 

Agreed. I'd rather have Swihart before Holt, if we needed someone for more than a few days stretch.

[moonslav59]

Don't forget about Junior Lake!

 

 

 

 

Actually on second thought, forget about Junior Lake. ..

 

Not on the 40 man roster, but I could see us dumping Brentz and adding Jr at some point.

[harmony]

Mookie Betts, the Green Monster and home runs:

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/1/15/14276408/statcast-average-expected-home-run-percentage-bautista-betts-kepler-dozier

 

Scroll down.

[moonslav59]

Mookie Betts, the Green Monster and home runs:

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/1/15/14276408/statcast-average-expected-home-run-percentage-bautista-betts-kepler-dozier

 

Scroll down.

 

The article does not mention how the Monster can and does turn some line drive HRs into DBLs (and singles) high off the wall.

 

How many HRs to CF-RF were taken away by our enormous right-CF gap or the triangle area and extra high CF wall?

[Bellhorn04]

The article does not mention how the Monster can and does turn some line drive HRs into DBLs (and singles) high off the wall.

 

How many HRs to CF-RF were taken away by our enormous right-CF gap or the triangle area and extra high CF wall?

 

It's fair to say that Mookie benefitted from Fenway. But he was pretty good on the road too.

[harmony]

Could/should the Red Sox target lefthander Craig Breslow?

 

http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-ten-thoughts-when-not-slipping-on-black-ice/

 

Breslow has an upcoming showcase, according to columnist Peter Gammons.

Edited January 15, 2017 by harmony

[Nick]

Could/should the Red Sox target lefthander Craig Breslow?

 

http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-ten-thoughts-when-not-slipping-on-black-ice/

 

Breslow has an upcoming showcase, according to columnist Peter Gammons.

 

NO funcking way.....move on. He was non factor for Sox.

[Nick]

It's fair to say that Mookie benefitted from Fenway. But he was pretty good on the road too.

 

His favorite park is in Baltimore.

[moonslav59]

It's fair to say that Mookie benefitted from Fenway. But he was pretty good on the road too.

 

Most players benefit from playing in Fenway, Mookie included.

 

My point was that this article only addressed the HRs Fenway given by Fenway, but it's my guess is he had at least 1 or 2 taken away by high walls and a deep CF and Cf-RF gap.

 

[moonslav59]

NO funcking way.....move on. He was non factor for Sox.

 

Minor league deal would be fine.

[moonslav59]

At this point in time, what is the Sox weakest area?

 

A) 3B

Pen

C) Starter depth

D) Catching

E) other

[Spudboy]

The Pen.

[oldtimer]

At this point in time, what is the Sox weakest area?

 

A) 3B

Pen

C) Starter depth

D) Catching

E) other

 

I would put it in terms of unknowns

 

I would put the largest at 3rd base (no pun intended)

To me, catching is still and unknown with neither expected starter likely to hit well and Swihart's defense needing improvement

The Pen is an unknown with only one excellent addition and three losses.

The Bench also is a bit of a question. Holt, Young and Swihart if he is up would give some strength. It was more of a weakness last year

[Kimmi]

At this point in time, what is the Sox weakest area?

 

A) 3B

Pen

C) Starter depth

D) Catching

E) other

 

Starter depth.

[Slasher9]

At this point in time, what is the Sox weakest area?

 

A) 3B

Pen

C) Starter depth

D) Catching

E) other

 

C...

closely followed by E: DD eradicating our Farm

[notin]

I would put it in terms of unknowns

 

I would put the largest at 3rd base (no pun intended)

To me, catching is still and unknown with neither expected starter likely to hit well and Swihart's defense needing improvement

The Pen is an unknown with only one excellent addition and three losses.

The Bench also is a bit of a question. Holt, Young and Swihart if he is up would give some strength. It was more of a weakness last year

 

I wouldn't say the bench was a weakness. Typically the bench is only for short term depth, so having Holt is a definite plus many teams don't have.

 

If there is an injury in the infield or outfield, long term replacements often come from the farm. With Swihart, the catching is fine. But behind Holt (whose only partial infield depth because he also backs up the outfield) and Rutledge, the infielders appear to be Marco Hernandez and Deven Marrero. The outfield has Rusney Castillo, Junior Lake and Brian Bogusevic. The Sox have no Benintendi-type prospects ready to step in long term if anyone gets hurt. So Holt is the man, but he can only cover for one injury at a time. ..

[Kimmi]

C...

closely followed by E: DD eradicating our Farm

 

A man after my own heart.

[Kimmi]

I wouldn't say the bench was a weakness. Typically the bench is only for short term depth, so having Holt is a definite plus many teams don't have.

 

If there is an injury in the infield or outfield, long term replacements often come from the farm. With Swihart, the catching is fine. But behind Holt (whose only partial infield depth because he also backs up the outfield) and Rutledge, the infielders appear to be Marco Hernandez and Deven Marrero. The outfield has Rusney Castillo, Junior Lake and Brian Bogusevic. The Sox have no Benintendi-type prospects ready to step in long term if anyone gets hurt. So Holt is the man, but he can only cover for one injury at a time. ..

 

Team depth, in general, is a concern. We should be fine covering short term injuries. We don't have a lot of flexibility should we need to cover a long term injury.

[moonslav59]

Our 2016 bench was one of our strengths last year.

 

Leon was our 3rd string catcher.

T Shaw did a decent job as a back-up 3Bman.

Young did very well as our 4th OF'er.

Beni did great as our 7th OF'er.

Holt, Hernandez and Rutledge made up for A Hill's poor performance, but remember, Hill was not on our opening day depth chart.

Yeah, Hanigan, Moncada and a couple other guys did poorly, but overall, our bench was a shining aspect of our team.

 

Also, Wright was our 6th starter and was our first half ace (on paper).

We lost Carson Smith for the year and Kimbrel & Uehara for significant times. While maybe Barnes and Hembree did not do great, they did a decent job stepping into roles not envisioned at season's start. Ross and Scott did very well.

 

This year's bench includes one of Young or Moreland plus a returning Holt, Vaz and Rutledge. With Swihart, Sam Travis, Hernandez and Marrero on the farm, I think our bench will be fine in 2017.