A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[harmony]

Because he'd be on another team's 40 man roster, of just because we paid to have another team take him off our minor league roster?

 

I'm not so sure how it would work. There's probably no or little precedent.

 

It seems like since he doesn't count now, why would trading a non 40 man roster player suddenly make his contract count?

 

The salary of a player on a team's 40-man roster will count against the team (or teams) paying that salary. I doubt any team would trade for Rusney Castillo at his full salary only to place Castillo outside its 40-man roster (thereby avoiding luxury-tax implications).

[moonslav59]

Our RP was 5th in ERA in the AL last year. I would not call our pen a "weak point"; not if they are in the upper third in ERA. Maybe not as strong as other areas perhaps, but not weak. While you might argue that other measures are more important, ERA and ERA+ remains up there. While Koji did well after he returned, Tazawa did not have a good year, and Ziegler was only with us for a few months anyway. The addition of Thornburg and the return of Smith should make our pen stronger IMO than it was last year, at least on paper. But as everyone here knows, relief pitchers are a crapshoot.

 

ERA is a horrible stat for RP'ers. It's not great for starters either, but RP'ers often come in with 1 or 2 outs.

 

Our RP'er WHIP was 14th at 1.28 (0.02 from being below average).

 

We were 12th in xFIP- at 95 (just 2 away from below average).

 

IMO, being 4th in ERA- is not a true indicator of value.

 

Besides, we had an ERA- of 71 the second half- fueled mainly by Ziegler, Uehara, Taz and a resurgent Kelly.

 

Edited January 4, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

The salary of a player on a team's 40-man roster will count against the team (or teams) paying that salary. I doubt any team would trade for Rusney Castillo at his full salary only to place Castillo outside its 40-man roster (thereby avoiding luxury-tax implications).

 

I get that. My question was not assuming he would not be on the next team's 40 man. My point was that trading a non 40 man roster player might not mean we have to count any money that goes along with the trade. It's a unique situation.

 

If we traded a minor league player that was not on the 40 man roster and sent money with him, would that count, even if the player went to the next team's 40 man roster a year later?

[moonslav59]

Pablo is owed $58M for the next 3 years (counting the buyout for the 4th year). His luxury tax hit is $19M a year.

 

There were early rumors, that were later denied, that the SFG were asking about him. They apparently ares till looking for a 3Bman. What if we traded him to SF and paid 30M or his contract? They'd owe him just under $10M a year x 3 years. I'm not expecting anything in return, except maybe a prospect like we got for Buchholz.

 

With the $9M a year we save on the luxury tax budget, we could then trade for Todd Frazier. His contract may be about $12M, so we'd still have some good wiggle room at the deadline. The big plus comes from when Frazier becomes a free agent next winter. We'll have $9M more to spend, and hopefully Devers will be ready to take over 3B.

 

I'm not what the CWS would want for Frazier, but at $12M, I know they want to trade him. Would anyone here, under the above circumstances above, offer Hernandez and Hembree (maybe throw in TBall) for Frazier?

 

[moonslav59]

Speaking of the CWS, word is they're looking to trade Abreu. If they do, maybe they'd want Sam Travis.

 

Would you trade ERod, Pomernaz (who I assume they'd trade to another team for prospects), Travis and Dalbec for Quintana?

[Bellhorn04]

Speaking of the CWS, word is they're looking to trade Abreu. If they do, maybe they'd want Sam Travis.

 

Would you trade ERod, Pomernaz (who I assume they'd trade to another team for prospects), Travis and Dalbec for Quintana?

 

You tricked me, I thought you were going to propose a trade for Abreu.

[moonslav59]

You tricked me, I thought you were going to propose a trade for Abreu.

 

LOL. If they'd take Pablo for Abreu and Frazier...

 

LMAO!

[harmony]

Pablo is owed $58M for the next 3 years (counting the buyout for the 4th year). His luxury tax hit is $19M a year.

 

There were early rumors, that were later denied, that the SFG were asking about him. They apparently ares till looking for a 3Bman. What if we traded him to SF and paid 30M or his contract? They'd owe him just under $10M a year x 3 years. I'm not expecting anything in return, except maybe a prospect like we got for Buchholz.

 

With the $9M a year we save on the luxury tax budget, we could then trade for Todd Frazier. His contract may be about $12M, so we'd still have some good wiggle room at the deadline. The big plus comes from when Frazier becomes a free agent next winter. We'll have $9M more to spend, and hopefully Devers will be ready to take over 3B.

 

I'm not what the CWS would want for Frazier, but at $12M, I know they want to trade him. Would anyone here, under the above circumstances above, offer Hernandez and Hembree (maybe throw in TBall) for Frazier?

 

A White Sox blogger offers a different third-base solution for the San Francisco Giants:

 

http://southsideshowdown.com/2017/01/04/white-sox-potential-trade-todd-frazier/

[moonslav59]

A White Sox blogger offers a different third-base solution for the San Francisco Giants:

 

http://southsideshowdown.com/2017/01/04/white-sox-potential-trade-todd-frazier/

 

Obvious.

[oldtimer]

You tricked me, I thought you were going to propose a trade for Abreu.

 

Probably he has been drinking too many cups of coffee.

[moonslav59]

Probably he has been drinking too many cups of coffee.

 

Love the smell of coffee- hate the taste.

 

I'm just bored. Nothing happening in baseball.

[S5Dewey]

Love the smell of coffee- hate the taste.

 

I'm just bored. Nothing happening in baseball.

 

The off season is like that... feast or famine.

[moonslav59]

The off season is like that... feast or famine.

 

I know, right?

 

The Sox made all their moves in one day.

 

They should have spread them out for our benefit!

[notin]

I'd be surprised if the Sox tradef for Abreu, who opted out of his contract to receive arbitration and would severely cut into the luxury tax wiggle room. He would be an awesome addition.

 

I also think Moreland will lose his job and Sam Travis will be playing first base by August....

[moonslav59]

Some Sox questions to ponder....

 

Pablo Sandoval: Lots of questions on this guy. Here are some:

Is his weight loss going to be something that we continuously have to worry about?

Even if he gets in top shape, can we expect the numbers he put up several years ago with SF?

Can his fielding return to slight plus or just average?

 

Leon- Vazquez-Swihart: All have shown promise in either offense or defense.

Can two of these guys step up their weaker side and become all around solid catchers?

 

Carson Smith: He's really had just one full season in MLB- a very good one (1.01 WHIP/11.8 K/9). He is coming back from major surgery and may not be "ready" until May or June.

Can we expect the 2015 Smith to return to form by mid season and into the playoffs?

 

Tyler Thornburg: After his rookie year's 1.185 WHIP, he had two years over 1.25 before posting last year's excellent 0.940 number. His K rate was never above 9 until jumping to 12/1 in 2016.

Can we trust these 2016 numbers as legitimate indicator of who he now is and will continue to be?

 

Kelly, Ross & Barnes: Can these guy continue to show the growth they experienced, at least in flashes, in 2016?

Can they make up for the loss of Ziegler, Uehara & Tazawa?

 

ERod, Pomeranz & Wright: All 3 had a very good to great half season last year but also had bad halves as well.

Can the rotation stay healthy enough for one of these guys to give a big boost to our pen?

Can the two that start go long enough into games to lessen the need to have a good pen (or deep pen)?

 

Sale, Porcello, Price: Sale has been a rock, and so has Price until 2016's shaky start and finish. Porcello blossomed.

Can the big 3 live up to their hype?

 

Mitch Moreland: His fielding has always been GG quality.

Can we get decent numbers from him, at least vs RHPs?

Can his playing many games at 1B help keep HanRam fresh and healthy?

 

Chris Young: He's been one of MLB's best hitters vs LHPs in recent years.

Can he produce vs LHPs as a DH?

Can he get enough playing time in the OF to keep him "in the game"?

 

Holt, Rutledge, Hernandez, Travis, Marrero...

Is this bench good enough?

 

Abad, Hembree, Scott, Workman, N Ramirez, Martin, Ysla: Hopefully, we don't have to count on any of these guys too much...

Are they good enough?

 

HanRam: He's been up0 and down for much of his recent career. Age 27 .712, age 28 .759, age 29 1.040, age 30 .817, age 31 .717 and age 32 .866. He's also had under 430 PAs in 3 of the last 6 years (under 512 in 4 of 6).

Is HanRam due for an off year?

Can he help pick up the slack with Papi's retirement?

 

Pedroia: He had his first .800+ OPS since 2011. He had his first season with over 135 games played since 2013.

Can we count on a healthy and productive Pedey this year?

 

Bogaerts: He has shown steady growth at the plate, despite his late season swoon. His OPS jump was due almost exclusively to a gain in power. His fielding is another matter.

Can we hope for a turn around on defense?

Can we expect a further increase in his offense, especially in the OBP area?

 

JBJ: He has had two straight seasons over .830. There were a few big ups and big downs in those two seasons and one big long down in 2014.

Can we expect more consistency in 2017?

Can we expect a jump in OPS?

 

Betts The only question here is how high is this kids ceiling?

[moonslav59]

I'd be surprised if the Sox tradef for Abreu, who opted out of his contract to receive arbitration and would severely cut into the luxury tax wiggle room. He would be an awesome addition.

 

I also think Moreland will lose his job and Sam Travis will be playing first base by August....

 

Abreu is not a good fielder, so his future would be at DH.

 

With HanRam and Pablo looking more and more like DH candidates, I don't see Abreu as a good plus, unless we trade one of those two big contracts.

 

I think Moreland might respond well to playing in Fenway. I do like Travis though, and I could see him winning a space on the 25 man roster by season's end.

[moonslav59]

Edwin Escobar was DFA's as the Guardians added EE to their roster.

 

Minor league deal with us?

 

The Jays just signed Gavin Floyd to a minor league deal.

[Kimmi]

Love the smell of coffee- hate the taste.

 

I'm just bored. Nothing happening in baseball.

 

I don't particularly like the taste of coffee either, but if you put enough sugar and cinnamon vanilla cream in it, it's like you're not even drinking coffee. I don't know how anyone drinks it black.

 

Baseball cannot start soon enough. In terms of baseball, things have been very boring lately.

[Spudboy]

I have loved the taste of coffee since I was a little boy.

[jacksonianmarch]

Shouldn't be too boring for you guys. You did make the biggest splash of the offseason and enter the season the prohibitive AL favorites to head to the WS. Enjoy the slow buildup. You could be ready to watch a full season of kids make or break it like I am

[harmony]

Shouldn't be too boring for you guys. You did make the biggest splash of the offseason and enter the season the prohibitive AL favorites to head to the WS. Enjoy the slow buildup. You could be ready to watch a full season of kids make or break it like I am

One source does not show the Red Sox as the American League favorites, much less prohibitive favorites:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

 

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/prohibitive

 

On the right column.

[moonslav59]

I have loved the taste of coffee since I was a little boy.

 

I never liked ice cream as a kid, but now I do. Coffee ice cream is about the only way I like coffee.

 

I absolutely love the smell of roasting coffee.

[moonslav59]

One source does not show the Red Sox as the American League favorites, much less prohibitive favorites:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

 

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/prohibitive

 

On the right column.

 

I think 3 AL teams look pretty strong on paper:

 

Boston

 

Cleveland

 

Houston

 

[moonslav59]

According to fangraphs' projections these teams have these amounts of batter and pitchers with a 3.0+ projected WAR

 

Team Batters Pitchers Total

CUBs 4 - 3 - 7 (2 at 2.9 and 1 at 2.8)

BOS 4 - 3 - 7

LAD 4 - 2 - 6

NATs 4 - 2 - 6

HOU 4 - 2 - 6

CLE 2 - 3 - 5

 

 

[S5Dewey]

I never liked ice cream as a kid, but now I do. Coffee ice cream is about the only way I like coffee.

 

I absolutely love the smell of roasting coffee.

 

Apropos nothing baseball related and since there's nothing going on...

There's a town near me that had a coffee shop in the middle of downtown where they roasted their own coffee. The people who lived near the coffee shop petitioned the Town Council to declare the smell coming from the coffee shop a "nuisance" and a threat to the environment, the town council complied, and the coffee shop had to install scrubbers to take eradicate the smell of the roasting coffee.

[moonslav59]

Apropos nothing baseball related and since there's nothing going on...

There's a town near me that had a coffee shop in the middle of downtown where they roasted their own coffee. The people who lived near the coffee shop petitioned the Town Council to declare the smell coming from the coffee shop a "nuisance" and a threat to the environment, the town council complied, and the coffee shop had to install scrubbers to take eradicate the smell of the roasting coffee.

 

Impeach the bastards!

[harmony]

I never liked ice cream as a kid, but now I do. Coffee ice cream is about the only way I like coffee.

 

I absolutely love the smell of roasting coffee.

This tea drinker prefers the smell of coffee to the taste of coffee, but I'll sip an occasional java.

 

Except on my current diet, I'm an ice cream fiend whose favorite flavor by far is coffee or its variations.

Edited January 6, 2017 by harmony

[notin]

Coffee. No cream. No sugar.

 

If I can go 86 years without a World Series, I can handle the occasional bitterness in my morning beverage. ..

[Spudboy]

Apropos nothing baseball related and since there's nothing going on...

There's a town near me that had a coffee shop in the middle of downtown where they roasted their own coffee. The people who lived near the coffee shop petitioned the Town Council to declare the smell coming from the coffee shop a "nuisance" and a threat to the environment, the town council complied, and the coffee shop had to install scrubbers to take eradicate the smell of the roasting coffee.

 

I don't imagine that Catcher In The Rye is part of the town's library or English department.

[cp176]

Apropos nothing baseball related and since there's nothing going on...

There's a town near me that had a coffee shop in the middle of downtown where they roasted their own coffee. The people who lived near the coffee shop petitioned the Town Council to declare the smell coming from the coffee shop a "nuisance" and a threat to the environment, the town council complied, and the coffee shop had to install scrubbers to take eradicate the smell of the roasting coffee.

 

You sure you really live in Maine? I tried to get the town fathers to eliminate the chicken coop in the middle of our town (rooster) - no luck. Does your town have an ordinance about the number or junked vehicles you can have on the front lawn? engine hangers? 'tachments to the old mobile?