Pedroia HOF candidate?

[dustcover]

Here are Pedey's total stats from his first full season, 2007 to the present. If he plays another 5 years and maintains this level of play, is he a legitimate HOF candidate?

 

BA .301, OBP .366, OPS .811 with an average 16 homers per season and 77 RBI per season.

[sk7326]

Doesn't even have to - he is clearly the best HoF candidate on the team presently ... his career bWAR is 49.4 ... and the hall of fame tier is in the 60 ballpark there. You add the intangibles (one team his whole career, many all star games, a deserved AL MVP, two rings), I'd be surprised if he did not make it with two more solid seasons

[mvp 78]

He needs to play a few more years at a high level before he's a good candidate according to JAWS.

 

2500 hits? Nah...

[sk7326]

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/51372/dustin-pedroias-hall-of-fame-chances

[harmony]

Doesn't even have to - he is clearly the best HoF candidate on the team presently ... his career bWAR is 49.4 ... and the hall of fame tier is in the 60 ballpark there. You add the intangibles (one team his whole career, many all star games, a deserved AL MVP, two rings), I'd be surprised if he did not make it with two more solid seasons

As points of reference, I offer the career bWAR of secondbasemen Dustin Pedroia, Chase Utley, Robinson Cano and Ian Kinsler:

 

32-year-old Dustin Pedroia, 49.4 bWAR in 11 seasons, two World Series, two World Series titles, one AL RoY, one AL MVP

 

37-year-old Chase Utley, 63.4 bWAR in 14 seasons, two World Series, one World Series title

33-year-old Robinson Cano, 60.3 bWAR in 12 seasons, one World Series, one World Series title

34-year-old Ian Kinsler, 51.5 bWAR in 11 seasons, two World Series, no World Series titles

[Dojji]

he is clearly the best HoF candidate on the team presently

 

[Slasher9]

he will get in. not a first ballot but when all is said and done (barring a career ending injury in the next 3 years) he will be in.....IMO

[Dojji]

Another WS win before it's all over would put him over the top. Aging well and being productive into his late 30's will also help a ton, but I'm not sure I see it with his body type.

[sk7326]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]399[/ATTACH]

 

I always forget about him - 54.1 WAR over 20 seasons vs 49.4 WAR over 10. Ortiz will get in - when is an interesting question, based on the Hall reforming its attitude about the DH position (clearly they should be held to a higher offensive standard, but blackballing them makes little sense) - he probably gets in over Edgar Martinez if they break the seal on the position.

[sk7326]

Another WS win before it's all over would put him over the top. Aging well and being productive into his late 30's will also help a ton, but I'm not sure I see it with his body type.

 

With Pedroia the question is whether it falls off a cliff over glides down gently. Essentially when his hands have been healthy, he has been about 90% of his 25 year old self ... if he keeps that up for a couple more seasons there will be the bulk accumulation.

 

What hurts Pedroia is the sudden growth of quality at that position. He is probably more like a Top 6 second baseman now, but still a legit top 20-30 position player generally. He and Cano do not have a monopoly on the position anymore - even if their actual production has not slumped that much.

[mvp 78]

Is Ian Kinsler HOF worthy? If not, neither is Pedroia.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_2B.shtml

 

Chase Utley? Idk. He's probably the borderline for me. If Pedroia can get his career numbers above Utley's, I think he has a good chance of getting in.

[Slasher9]

the RoY and MVP are the difference makers. if/when another second baseman wins MVP it will be the first one since he did it...

the last AL 2nd baseman to win it prior to Pedroia was Nellie Fox in 1959..

the last 3 NL 2nd baseman to win: Kent, Sandberg, Morgan.....

[sk7326]

Is Ian Kinsler HOF worthy? If not, neither is Pedroia.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_2B.shtml

 

Chase Utley? Idk. He's probably the borderline for me. If Pedroia can get his career numbers above Utley's, I think he has a good chance of getting in.

 

Kinsler and Pedroia are fairly close - I think Pedroia's actual peakiness puts him a shade above. Finished Top 10 MVP 3 times to Kinsler's zero (and obviously won it) and same number of All-Star appearances - and the two rings.

 

Utley is a case where he just hasn't been very good the last 3 years or so. He was once arguably the best position player in the league - for me he is very tough. The edge Pedroia has is that he is still quite good, and a better Age 32 player than Utley was.

[greenwell]

Hall of Fame is a lot about longevity. I'd say he needs 5 more years that are better than his last 5. Look at Craig Biggio. It took him 3 years to get in and Pedroia has a long ways to go to reach his numbers.

[harmony]

I always forget about him - 54.1 WAR over 20 seasons vs 49.4 WAR over 10. Ortiz will get in - when is an interesting question, based on the Hall reforming its attitude about the DH position (clearly they should be held to a higher offensive standard, but blackballing them makes little sense) - he probably gets in over Edgar Martinez if they break the seal on the position.

Any mention of Edgar Martinez should note that the career Seattle Martinez posted 68.3 bWAR in 18 seasons to the 54.1 bWAR posted in 20 seasons by David Ortiz.

 

Just one factor to consider.

[sk7326]

Any mention of Edgar Martinez should note that the career Seattle Martinez posted 68.3 bWAR in 18 seasons to the 54.1 bWAR posted in 20 seasons by David Ortiz.

 

Just one factor to consider.

 

I am the first to consider it - and I've always noted he was the better player (you can't unsee Ortiz' dip in 2009). But Ortiz has many more narrative points, while also being a darn good DH. So him getting in first is defensible - and ultimately good for Martinez as it would validate the DH as a HoF worthy job (as well it should be).

[Slasher9]

Any mention of Edgar Martinez should note that the career Seattle Martinez posted 68.3 bWAR in 18 seasons to the 54.1 bWAR posted in 20 seasons by David Ortiz.

 

Just one factor to consider.

 

harness - how many times did edgar put his team on his back and lead them to a parade?

[Spudboy]

f*** WAR.

[a700hitter]

f*** WAR.

What is it good for?

[harmony]

harness - how many times did edgar put his team on his back and lead them to a parade?

That's why it's a Hall of Fame, not a Hall of Baseball's Best Players.

 

Edgar Martinez did what he could:

 

[illinoisredsox]

IMO, no, Pedroia is not a Hall of Famer. But then, I have very high standards in this regard and there are many players who are in who I don't think should be.

 

Pedey is very good, but it's not the Hall of the Very Good.

[sk7326]

harness - how many times did edgar put his team on his back and lead them to a parade?

 

It helps to have better teammates than your opponent.

 

It is funny how narratives like "putting them on your shoulders" persists despite all the insistence on ideas like "chemistry", "clubhouse" and "coming together as a team".

[Slasher9]

That's why it's a Hall of Fame, not a Hall of Baseball's Best Players.

 

Edgar Martinez did what he could:

 

 

agreed. and every person on the planet given the choice to win a 7th game of WS with one last AB would pick david ortiz over just about anyone. including one mr. edgar martinez.

[mvp 78]

It helps to have better teammates than your opponent.

 

It is funny how narratives like "putting them on your shoulders" persists despite all the insistence on ideas like "chemistry", "clubhouse" and "coming together as a team".

 

Some of those Mariners teams were really, really good. No? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Seattle_Mariners_seasons

 

From 95-03, they won 3 pennants, had 1 wild card appearance and 5 years above 90 wins (which included 116 wins in 2001).

 

Maybe if his postseason numbers were a little better? http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=martied01&t=b&year=0&post=1

[sk7326]

Some of those Mariners teams were really, really good. No? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Seattle_Mariners_seasons

 

From 95-03, they won 3 pennants, had 1 wild card appearance and 5 years above 90 wins (which included 116 wins in 2001).

 

Maybe if his postseason numbers were a little better? http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=martied01&t=b&year=0&post=1

 

.873 OPS over 7 series vs .962 over 17 series. Ortiz has produced more memorable moments than any player I can remember, and he had lots of chances to do so - he also was legitimately bad in 4 of the 8 pennant chases he was part of. But the peaks are remarkable - and very well should get him into the Hall with the other stuff.

 

The Mariners were outstanding for a lot of their time there - just couldn't beat the Yankees in October, something which happened to a lot of teams.

[Slasher9]

Pretty sure they had a team that went 161-1 but spit the bit in the playoffs.

F edgar.

[harmony]

agreed. and every person on the planet given the choice to win a 7th game of WS with one last AB would pick david ortiz over just about anyone. including one mr. edgar martinez.

But what about being down a run in the bottom of the 11th inning of the decisive fifth game of an American League Divisional Series?

 

I get it that many would pick David Ortiz but I doubt the vote would be unanimous. Given their respective career strikeout rates -- 17.4 percent for Ortiz and 13.9 percent for Edgar Martinez -- Ortiz might be the likelier candidate to be the Mighty Casey [Who] Has Struck Out.

[mvp 78]

But what about being down a run in the bottom of the 11th inning of the decisive fifth game of an American League Divisional Series?

 

I get it that many would pick David Ortiz but I doubt the vote would be unanimous. Given their respective career strikeout rates -- 17.4 percent for Ortiz and 13.9 percent for Edgar Martinez -- Ortiz might be the likelier candidate to be the Mighty Casey [Who] Has Struck Out.

 

Who had more career walk offs? Ortiz or Edgar?

[Dojji]

I don't think we need to be tearing down Edgar Martinez here. To do that is to miss the point. Ortiz AND Martinez both have strong HoF credentials if you can ever get the NL sportswriters' heads out of their posteriors vis-a-vis a ~50 year old rule change. IIRC the DH has been allowed for longer than the spitball has been illegal, people need to get over it.

[sk7326]

I don't think we need to be tearing down Edgar Martinez here. To do that is to miss the point. Ortiz AND Martinez both have strong HoF credentials if you can ever get the NL sportswriters' heads out of their posteriors vis-a-vis a ~50 year old rule change. IIRC the DH has been allowed for longer than the spitball has been illegal, people need to get over it.

 

This ... I do hope Frank Thomas getting in helps all of this out (he played 1B for a while - badly, but DH'd a lot too). I think both guys are HoF worthy, and maybe Ortiz should get in because of the postseason TV clips and the titles. That stuff is totally fine. I have no problem with DH having a very high offensive standard (because they are specialists with only one way to impact the game). But to have an embargo on players who did that as their primary vocation does not really make sense.