07/10 Sox vs. Rays - Break out the brooms.

[mvp 78]

2.6 fWAR Kimmi, $20.4 million value to date. Not far below expectations *if you buy FanGraphs WAR for pitchers*.

 

Therein lies the problem.

[Kimmi]

I think it's 5 bad starts. 6.1 / 4 falls closer to mediocre than bad.

 

4 of the 5 bad starts came in his first 7, only 1 in his last 12.

 

If he keeps trending like he has been he can still end up with a very strong season.

 

Let's go with Game Scores:

 

With 50 being considered an 'average' start, Price had 5 starts clearly below average with scores of 43, 16, 39, 27, and 10, with 3 of those being pretty awful.

 

He had another 3 starts than were in the 'average' range - 55, 56, and 48.

 

Scores of 65 or above are considered 'gems'. Price had 7 of those, with scores of 66, 74, 69, 73, 71, 69, and 83. He other four scores were close - 62, 64, 60, and 63.

 

To summarize, out of 19 starts, Price had 5 starts that were bad, 3 that were average, 4 that were very good, and 7 that were 'ace' like.

 

I'll leave it up to individual interpretation as to whether that's what you expect from your ace or not.

[mvp 78]

Do you expect your ace to pitch gems each and every start?

[Kimmi]

I don't believe anyone has said otherwise.

 

Maybe not in so many words, but when someone calls it complaining or whining, the implication is there.

[mvp 78]

Maybe not in so many words, but when someone calls it complaining or whining, the implication is there.

 

I'm not sure anyone has said that people can't complain about Price. A700 has said over and over again that Price AND the 4/5 guys need to be better. Where's the problem?

 

It seems to me that the issue derived when people complained the Sox need better 4/5's, but were outright told that they can't complain about 4/5's because Price stinks.

 

Maybe it's a chicken and egg thing at this point.

 

Price needs to pitch better. The 4 and 5 starters need to be replaced. No one has said otherwise that I can recall.

[SoxnCycles]

I don't believe anyone has said otherwise.

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17549-A-Realistic-View-at-2016/page93

Start with post 1391 and go from there.

[Kimmi]

2.6 fWAR Kimmi, $20.4 million value to date. Not far below expectations *if you buy FanGraphs WAR for pitchers*.

 

I am aware of this, and yes I do buy into Fangraphs WAR. Even when Price has struggled, he usually battles through and does a decent job. His peripherals are much stronger than his ERA.

 

Maybe I'm expecting too much of him, but until the his last performance, I have not really gotten the sense of him being dominant. I have not really gotten the sense that he has been a shut down pitcher.

[Kimmi]

Do you expect your ace to pitch gems each and every start?

 

I do not.

 

Do you think Price has pitched like an ace to date?

[SoxnCycles]

Do you expect your ace to pitch gems each and every start?

 

Do you expect him to have an ERA over 4.00?

[Kimmi]

I'm not sure anyone has said that people can't complain about Price. A700 has said over and over again that Price AND the 4/5 guys need to be better. Where's the problem?

 

It seems to me that the issue derived when people complained the Sox need better 4/5's, but were outright told that they can't complain about 4/5's because Price stinks.

 

Maybe it's a chicken and egg thing at this point.

 

Price needs to pitch better. The 4 and 5 starters need to be replaced. No one has said otherwise that I can recall.

 

That's all I'm saying. Price needs to pitch better.

 

People have had some strong issues with that statement.

[Kimmi]

Do you expect him to have an ERA over 4.00?

 

That too.

[SoxnCycles]

I'm not sure anyone has said that people can't complain about Price. A700 has said over and over again that Price AND the 4/5 guys need to be better. Where's the problem?

 

It seems to me that the issue derived when people complained the Sox need better 4/5's, but were outright told that they can't complain about 4/5's because Price stinks.

 

Maybe it's a chicken and egg thing at this point.

 

Price needs to pitch better. The 4 and 5 starters need to be replaced. No one has said otherwise that I can recall.

 

Acually the point was that if Price can't get his act together, there was no point in trading propects for another pitcher.

But, you were close.

[Kimmi]

I'm looking for Kershaw, Bumgarner, or 2015 Price type of dominance.

 

Again, maybe my expectations are too high, but that's what I expect from my ace.

[mvp 78]

I do not.

 

Do you think Price has pitched like an ace to date?

 

At times. He's had ace-like starts and 3 real clunkers. If he goes the next 3 months without another clunker, his numbers will look a lot better.

[mvp 78]

I'm looking for Kershaw, Bumgarner, or 2015 Price type of dominance.

 

Again, maybe my expectations are too high, but that's what I expect from my ace.

 

That's pretty high imo. We were blessed with Roger and Pedro. Those types of guys don't come around very often.

 

2015 was Price's best year. I'm not sure we can reasonably pitch to those numbers year in and year out. He's a career 3.19 ERA guy. I'd expect him to be around there +/- .5.

[mvp 78]

Do you expect him to have an ERA over 4.00?

 

Nope.

[Bellhorn04]

That too.

 

Isn't ERA a team- and luck-dependent stat according to advanced metrics?

[Spudboy]

Do you expect him to have an ERA over 4.00?

 

I for one , don't.

 

I hope to see 3.25 or so.

[Kimmi]

That's pretty high imo. We were blessed with Roger and Pedro. Those types of guys don't come around very often.

 

2015 was Price's best year. I'm not sure we can reasonably pitch to those numbers year in and year out. He's a career 3.19 ERA guy. I'd expect him to be around there +/- .5.

 

As I said, perhaps my expectations are too high, but when I think of 'ace', I don't think of the Price that we have seen so far.

 

I am really not trying to bag on Price, though it might seem like I am. I'm glad he's on our team, and I do expect him to be an ace for the home stretch.

[mvp 78]

As I said, perhaps my expectations are too high, but when I think of 'ace', I don't think of the Price that we have seen so far.

 

I am really not trying to bag on Price, though it might seem like I am. I'm glad he's on our team, and I do expect him to be an ace for the home stretch.

 

No, your points have been fair. I don't think you are bagging on him.

[Kimmi]

Isn't ERA a team- and luck-dependent stat according to advanced metrics?

 

Ha. While I was typing that response, I knew that someone was going to post this, and I had a pretty good feeling it would be you.

 

To answer your question, of course it is.

 

Regardless, to you expect your ace to have an ERA over 4?

[Kimmi]

No, your points have been fair. I don't think you are bagging on him.

 

Thank you.

[Bellhorn04]

Ha. While I was typing that response, I knew that someone was going to post this, and I had a pretty good feeling it would be you.

 

To answer your question, of course it is.

 

Regardless, to you expect your ace to have an ERA over 4?

 

I don't, but I'm extremely heartened by his advanced metrics. They really do make the world a better place.

[User Name]

ERA is only relatively luck-dependent. It's a lot more of a "repeatable skill" than say, the mighty but elusive legendary beast known as "clutch", since a lot of the factors that go into the pitching results that go into ERA are actually controlled by the pitcher.

[Kimmi]

I find it amusing that the game thread is getting so much action on a day when there is no game.

[mvp 78]

ERA is only relatively luck-dependent. It's a lot more of a "repeatable skill" than say, the mighty but elusive legendary beast known as "clutch", since a lot of the factors that go into the pitching results that go into ERA are actually controlled by the pitcher.

 

"Son a ma gun!" - Santino Marella

[Bellhorn04]

ERA is only relatively luck-dependent. It's a lot more of a "repeatable skill" than say, the mighty but elusive legendary beast known as "clutch", since a lot of the factors that go into the pitching results that go into ERA are actually controlled by the pitcher.

 

Now you're trying to start a whole other dead horse debate.

 

Well done.

[User Name]

Now you're trying to start a whole other dead horse debate.

 

Well done.

 

Just doing the Lord's work.

[cp176]

Come on. Really? Show me one post on any thread on this forum where any of the posters that are pointing out prices struggles have said that the Red Sox should dfa him.

I don't even recall a post saying the sox shouldn't have signed the best available SP this past offseason.

 

Wow

[a700hitter]

1. This was never a discussion about what Dombrowski needed to fix on this team, nor did anyone ever state that Dombrowski needed to replace Price, until you changed the direction of the argument in a recent post.

That's what the discussion was about for me. That is why I identified the biggest shortcoming on the team in need of correction.

 

2. No one has ever said that Price is THE problem, just that he was part of the problem. Just because the 4/5 slots are the larger problem does not mean that it is the only problem. You have said that Price is not a problem at all, until you recently changed direction and said that Price is not THE problem.

 

I quote: "Price is not a problem. Identifying him as any sort of problem is completely misguided."

He is not A problem or THE problem. I have stated that we can win with a spotty Price. Also, if we fix the 4th and 5th spots, but that we cannot win if the 4th and 5th spots are not fixed even if Price pitches like Koufax. He is not THE or A problem for this team imo. I am getting tired of repeating myself. Has he had some troubles or problems? Yes. But he is not A problem or THE problem for this team.

 

3. When you disagree about a player that I defend, I'm a homer. When you disagree about a player that I don't think has performed up to expectations, I'm a whiner. These are tactics that posters resort to when the debate is lost.

I stand by my opinion regarding Price and the 4th and 5th spots. You can declare victory if that makes you feel better. Edited July 12, 2016 by a700hitter