Christian Vazquez

[Hugh2]

What really separated CV from the rest was his glove which became very mediocre last year. In the absence of his elite defense his sub par offense really stands out. Leons bat really dropped off last year too and with no prior track record of hitting you wonder if he was just a fluke.

 

It all kind of makes you wish the Sox kept Swihart at catcher next year and let him to continue to develop his skills. It will be interesting to see how things shake out this year, there's definitely a lot of talent between those three but a lot of question marks as well.

[moonslav59]

What really separated CV from the rest was his glove which became very mediocre last year. In the absence of his elite defense his sub par offense really stands out. Leons bat really dropped off last year too and with no prior track record of hitting you wonder if he was just a fluke.

 

It all kind of makes you wish the Sox kept Swihart at catcher next year and let him to continue to develop his skills. It will be interesting to see how things shake out this year, there's definitely a lot of talent between those three but a lot of question marks as well.

[/b]

 

You make some good points, but I'd like to add this...

 

Maybe if Swihart stayed catching last year, our staff suffers and we don't even make the playoffs.

 

I didn't see a drop off of defense by Vaz, except for CS% (52>35%), which I feel is grossly overvalued.

 

Leon has had a few hot stretches in his career, something Vaz has never done except if you count .863 in single A ball as one. Leon has had these selected numbers on the farm:

.856 in 2012 (231 PAs mostly at AA & AAA)

.938 in 2013 (142 PAs in the Venezuelan winter league)

He's just been so God-awful in between those hot stretches. Still .720 in AAA beats Swihart--see below.

 

Swihart's offense is often cited as his biggest tangible attribute, yet when has he actually had a big offensive season? His best season has been .840 in 92 games at AA back in 2014. His AAA OPS is .675. Vaz is at .715.

 

 

[S5Dewey]

Throwing out runners (or not), as I'm sure you know, is just a small fraction of run prevention a catcher can influence in a positive or negative way.

 

I'm not sure the claim that great all around defensive catchers only save 12-15 more runs over the league average.

 

I'm not sure Vaz or Leon save that much over the average, but if they save 15 and Swihart loses 15 from the average, the gap could be 30 (or more).

 

Swihart has a good arm and pop time, so I doubt he loses much there, but in terms of pitch framing, pitch blocking and handling the staff with pitch calling and affecting a pitcher's emotional and mental state of mind. These areas are very hard to quantify, but that doesn't mean they aren't real and highly influential.

 

 

Ya. I wasn't trying to be a dick with that post. I was just pointing out that each play in baseball doesn't occur in a vacuum. There are a lot of residual affects from everything that happens and many of them are close to impossible to quantify because they're so dependent on what everyone else (on both teams) does.

 

IMHO the biggest thing statistics overlook is the effect of extending or shortening an inning for the offense when a player makes - or doesn't make - a play.

 

When JBJ makes a play in CF that most/none of the other CF's make it (allegedly) is reflected in his WAR value but it doesn't reflect the fact that he shortened the offensive team's inning by 1/3 over what a "normal" CD would have done. It reflects on him but not on the game. The only way it could reflect on the game would be if there was some way to assume what the next batter would have done, and so on until the inning would have been over.

 

Another situation... which I saw: Pedey gets a gift call of a ball on a 2-strike pitch that keeps him alive in the box. Then he hits the next pitch for a HR that scores enough runs that the Sox won the game. That one call improved Pedey's OPS and gave the Sox a win, but how can that be statistically quantified? Again, no one thing in baseball occurs in a vacuum, which is why I don't put as much faith in statistics as some do.

[moonslav59]

Ya. I wasn't trying to be a dick with that post. I was just pointing out that each play in baseball doesn't occur in a vacuum. There are a lot of residual affects from everything that happens and many of them are close to impossible to quantify because they're so dependent on what everyone else (on both teams) does.

 

IMHO the biggest thing statistics overlook is the effect of extending or shortening an inning for the offense when a player makes - or doesn't make - a play.

 

When JBJ makes a play in CF that most/none of the other CF's make it (allegedly) is reflected in his WAR value but it doesn't reflect the fact that he shortened the offensive team's inning by 1/3 over what a "normal" CD would have done. It reflects on him but not on the game. The only way it could reflect on the game would be if there was some way to assume what the next batter would have done, and so on until the inning would have been over.

 

Another situation... which I saw: Pedey gets a gift call of a ball on a 2-strike pitch that keeps him alive in the box. Then he hits the next pitch for a HR that scores enough runs that the Sox won the game. That one call improved Pedey's OPS and gave the Sox a win, but how can that be statistically quantified? Again, no one thing in baseball occurs in a vacuum, which is why I don't put as much faith in statistics as some do.

 

Agreed. I do think WAR does try to quantify how each hit or play made on defense either helps the odds of scoring or preventing scoring on average. Of course, there's no way of knowing if that play JBJ made that nobody else makes saves 0 runs or 10 runs.

 

Note: in my previous post, I had intended to bring in ML numbers which do show Swihart as a better hitter than Vaz and maybe Leon too. My point was that people seem to think it's a given Swihart will hit and may improve on defense, and Vaz can field and may improve on offense, but nothing is really certain yet, and hat's why I think we still have all 3 catchers right now.

[notin]

Ya. I wasn't trying to be a dick with that post. I was just pointing out that each play in baseball doesn't occur in a vacuum. There are a lot of residual affects from everything that happens and many of them are close to impossible to quantify because they're so dependent on what everyone else (on both teams) does.

 

IMHO the biggest thing statistics overlook is the effect of extending or shortening an inning for the offense when a player makes - or doesn't make - a play.

 

When JBJ makes a play in CF that most/none of the other CF's make it (allegedly) is reflected in his WAR value but it doesn't reflect the fact that he shortened the offensive team's inning by 1/3 over what a "normal" CD would have done. It reflects on him but not on the game. The only way it could reflect on the game would be if there was some way to assume what the next batter would have done, and so on until the inning would have .

 

Many new sabermetrics stats that people eschew are more involved and use more data than people realize. I'm not so sure they don't take into account how a play effects the remainder of the inning, maybe not as directly as one individual example asks. But they are typically more complicated, intricate and involved and try to be very encompassing. And the people who develop them do clearly have a solid grasp of the game...

[S5Dewey]

Many new sabermetrics stats that people eschew are more involved and use more data than people realize. I'm not so sure they don't take into account how a play effects the remainder of the inning, maybe not as directly as one individual example asks. But they are typically more complicated, intricate and involved and try to be very encompassing. And the people who develop them do clearly have a solid grasp of the game...

 

So are you saying that they DO take those things into account, they don't do it, or you don't know?

 

I'd be interested in knowing how they prognosticate what the second, third or fourth batter who would have come up after a third out is made would do. I've noticed that the more moving parts there are to something the greater the chance that something will fail.

[moonslav59]

Many new sabermetrics stats that people eschew are more involved and use more data than people realize. I'm not so sure they don't take into account how a play effects the remainder of the inning, maybe not as directly as one individual example asks. But they are typically more complicated, intricate and involved and try to be very encompassing. And the people who develop them do clearly have a solid grasp of the game...

 

I've always wondered how different teams value the same players. I'm sure they get more involved than WAR does.

[notin]

I've always wondered how different teams value the same players. I'm sure they get more involved than WAR does.

 

Well, they probably don't use any metric any of us have ever used. And that counts batting average, RBIs, fWAR and the "Eye Test"....

[notin]

So are you saying that they DO take those things into account, they don't do it, or you don't know?

 

I'd be interested in knowing how they prognosticate what the second, third or fourth batter who would have come up after a third out is made would do. I've noticed that the more moving parts there are to something the greater the chance that something will fail.

 

I'm saying I don't know and neither do you. I'm a baseball freak and a math geek and I'm impressed by their stuff.

 

I do know it is certainly possible to run Roulette style predictions for all possible outcomes (something coolstats does to determine playoff chances, for example) to determine the possibilities in an inning. But while I know it's possible, I couldn't do it myself.

 

However, I will say that on your second example with Pedroia, not really sure which statistic you're questioning and how it relates to the rest of the inning....

Edited December 22, 2016 by notin

[S5Dewey]

I'm saying I don't know and neither do you. I'm a baseball freak and a math geek and I'm impressed by their stuff.

 

I do know it is certainly possible to run Roulette style predictions for all possible outcomes (something coolstats does to determine playoff chances, for example) to determine the possibilities in an inning. But while I know it's possible, I couldn't do it myself.

 

However, I will say that on your second example with Pedroia, not really sure which statistic you're questioning and how it relates to the rest of the inning....

 

Ok. We've established that you don't know that statisticians can predict what future hitters could have done if a third out hadn't been made in an inning, but you think it's theoretically possible. I'd like to see how that's done! And I also have to wonder if it's worth doing. IMO it'd be difficult to have any faith in any prognostication with an almost infinite number of variables involved in it.

 

As to your second point, about Pedey hitting a HR after a bad umpire's call, I was using my personal remembrance to demonstrate what I said in my first paragraph, that "baseball doesn't occur in a vacuum. There are a lot of residual affects from everything that happens and many of them are close to impossible to quantify because they're so dependent on what everyone else (on both teams) does."

 

My example was showing that every facet of the game is dependent on other facets. Whether it's JBJ making an outstanding catch or even an umpire blowing a call, everything matters and has an impact on the outcome of a game, whether it's something done by a player or by an umpire.

 

Does that help?

[notin]

Ok. We've established that you don't know that statisticians can predict what future hitters could have done if a third out hadn't been made in an inning, but you think it's theoretically possible. I'd like to see how that's done! And I also have to wonder if it's worth doing. IMO it'd be difficult to have any faith in any prognostication with an almost infinite number of variables involved in it.

 

As to your second point, about Pedey hitting a HR after a bad umpire's call, I was using my personal remembrance to demonstrate what I said in my first paragraph, that "baseball doesn't occur in a vacuum. There are a lot of residual affects from everything that happens and many of them are close to impossible to quantify because they're so dependent on what everyone else (on both teams) does."

 

My example was showing that every facet of the game is dependent on other facets. Whether it's JBJ making an outstanding catch or even an umpire blowing a call, everything matters and has an impact on the outcome of a game, whether it's something done by a player or by an umpire.

 

Does that help?

 

While I don't know all the specifics of how the stats are computed, I do know it's certainly possible they are more encompassing than tour original assertion. This can be accomplished through even simple means, such as comparing runs allowed to outs recorded and attributing a fractional run to each put out. While this can't be boiled down to each individual at bat, what statistic can? Dustin Pedroia batted .318 last year, but I don't remember a single at bat where he received 318/1000 of a hit.

 

Statistics ate there to record the past. And this is true of all statistics, not just baseball. That they can be used to predict the fufuture is not meant to be so precise. And while it is true that no play exists in a vacuum, this doesn't negate the past. But boiling it down to a single at bat or play and saying statistics don't cover this is a gross misuse of the large scale data and the ultimate in small sample size arguments. No statistic anywhere is meant to be accurate or exact in that type of scenario, whether your talking baseball or weather or counting cards in LasVegas..

[Hugh2]

[/b]

 

You make some good points, but I'd like to add this...

 

Maybe if Swihart stayed catching last year, our staff suffers and we don't even make the playoffs.

 

I didn't see a drop off of defense by Vaz, except for CS% (52>35%), which I feel is grossly overvalued.

 

Leon has had a few hot stretches in his career, something Vaz has never done except if you count .863 in single A ball as one. Leon has had these selected numbers on the farm:

.856 in 2012 (231 PAs mostly at AA & AAA)

.938 in 2013 (142 PAs in the Venezuelan winter league)

He's just been so God-awful in between those hot stretches. Still .720 in AAA beats Swihart--see below.

 

Swihart's offense is often cited as his biggest tangible attribute, yet when has he actually had a big offensive season? His best season has been .840 in 92 games at AA back in 2014. His AAA OPS is .675. Vaz is at .715.

 

 

 

If Swihart stayed catching last year he probably not only improve his defense but much of that time would also of been spent in AAA. He might of had his cup of coffee towards the end of the year and had some playing time when the team went cold along with Leons bat.

 

This is all hypothetical of course, and I do think him spending time in AAA not injured and a focus on catching would have helped him tremendously

[S5Dewey]

While I don't know all the specifics of how the stats are computed, I do know it's certainly possible they are more encompassing than tour original assertion. This can be accomplished through even simple means, such as comparing runs allowed to outs recorded and attributing a fractional run to each put out. While this can't be boiled down to each individual at bat, what statistic can? Dustin Pedroia batted .318 last year, but I don't remember a single at bat where he received 318/1000 of a hit.

 

Statistics ate there to record the past. And this is true of all statistics, not just baseball. That they can be used to predict the fufuture is not meant to be so precise. And while it is true that no play exists in a vacuum, this doesn't negate the past. But boiling it down to a single at bat or play and saying statistics don't cover this is a gross misuse of the large scale data and the ultimate in small sample size arguments. No statistic anywhere is meant to be accurate or exact in that type of scenario, whether your talking baseball or weather or counting cards in LasVegas..

 

With all due respect, I think we're looking at this from two different perspectives. While you're looking at it from the statistical perspective of hindsight I'm looking at it from the baseball perspective of nothing current happening in a vacuum. While you can rightfully use statistics to approximate what could happen I'm recognizing that each situation is different. The aggregate of those differences will make a statistical difference but every statistical calculation has outliers and those outliers are, almost by definition, impossible to predict statistically. Yet the outliers are a part of the statistical calculations.

 

While you're looking at the averages I'm looking at the data points and those data points are affected by the human affect of the players and umpires.

[Emp9]

Like when Pedey makes an early fielding mistake (it happens once a month), I really like his chances at the plate for the duration of the game to make up for it?

[S5Dewey]

Like when Pedey makes an early fielding mistake (it happens once a month), I really like his chances at the plate for the duration of the game to make up for it?

 

Yep. Motivation is a wonderful thing!

[moonslav59]

If Swihart stayed catching last year he probably not only improve his defense but much of that time would also of been spent in AAA. He might of had his cup of coffee towards the end of the year and had some playing time when the team went cold along with Leons bat.

 

This is all hypothetical of course, and I do think him spending time in AAA not injured and a focus on catching would have helped him tremendously

.

I totally agree.

 

What about this though:

 

Let's assume, for argument's sake that Swihart is a 3 on a scale of 1-10, and Vaz and Leon are both 7's.

 

Can't we assume that as Swihart catches full time somewhere and improves from a 3 to a 5, that it is also likely that Vaz or Leon playing FT somewhere are still young enough to improve from a 7 to an 8 or 9?

 

Swihart could improve his defense and still never gain ground on Vaz/Leon, if they improve at the same rate.

 

While Swihart has a much better MLB OPS (small and scattered sample sizes for all three), he didn't hit better than either of them in AAA. What I'm saying is that we all seem to assume that all Swihart has to do is close the gap on defense to win the job, because he is clearly a much better hitter, and I'm not so sure that is a proven point just yet.

 

If you asked me to project career OPs for these three, I'm all on board with the rest of you guys in that Swihart should be a better hitter, but there really is not much evidence to support this, except tiny MLB and AA sample sizes. The AAA small sample sizes support Vaz & Leon.

[Kimmi]

Ya. I wasn't trying to be a dick with that post. I was just pointing out that each play in baseball doesn't occur in a vacuum. There are a lot of residual affects from everything that happens and many of them are close to impossible to quantify because they're so dependent on what everyone else (on both teams) does.

 

IMHO the biggest thing statistics overlook is the effect of extending or shortening an inning for the offense when a player makes - or doesn't make - a play.

 

When JBJ makes a play in CF that most/none of the other CF's make it (allegedly) is reflected in his WAR value but it doesn't reflect the fact that he shortened the offensive team's inning by 1/3 over what a "normal" CD would have done. It reflects on him but not on the game. The only way it could reflect on the game would be if there was some way to assume what the next batter would have done, and so on until the inning would have been over.

 

Another situation... which I saw: Pedey gets a gift call of a ball on a 2-strike pitch that keeps him alive in the box. Then he hits the next pitch for a HR that scores enough runs that the Sox won the game. That one call improved Pedey's OPS and gave the Sox a win, but how can that be statistically quantified? Again, no one thing in baseball occurs in a vacuum, which is why I don't put as much faith in statistics as some do.

 

S5, these types of things are absolutely factored into UZR and DRS. I can almost 100% guarantee you that if you or I have thought about stuff like this, the stat geeks have already thought about it too and are factoring it into their stats the best that they can. It's what they do. It's pretty much the reason for their existence.

 

This is what is so wrong about most of the traditional stats, BTW. Those stats are mostly considered in a vacuum, with no consideration given to what else was going on in the game.

 

The sabermetric guys fully understand that JBJ making a brilliant catch is worth more if the bases are loaded with 2 outs then it is with the bases empty and 2 outs. There is something called the 24 States Run Matrix. It tells us what the run expectancy is for each base-out state that can occur in baseball.

 

After each play is made, or not made, the run expectancy changes. If a defender makes an out, the run expectancy for the offense decreases. If a defender fails to make a play, the run expectancy increases, which works against the defender's runs saved. If the next batter hits a double, the additional run expectancy works against the defender's runs saved.

 

UZR and DRS are not perfect, but I can tell you that they are a lot more comprehensive than you think. And they are very good. People need to remember that just because a stat is flawed it does not mean that the stat is useless or no good.

[southpaw777]

I don't think anyone is saying "screw the defense" or "everyone has to hit for a high average." I'm just not as ready as you are to trade Swihart and hand the reigns over to Vasquez, because he was a a "born catcher."

 

He needs to show that he won't be an automatic out, or he'll be a career backup. There are lots of "born catchers" who end up playing in local softball leagues. As things stand right now, out of Leon, Vasquez & Swihart, Vasquez is the current favorite to be the only guy who won't be a starting catcher somewhere next season.

 

As far as "intangibles" go, he was demoted last season for "doing things his way," so those intangibles might be in question.

 

By the way. I would love to see Vasquez win the job, not be an automatic out and give them stability behind the plate for a long time, but until he does, I'd hang on to a guy like Swihartt.

 

The D is plenty good with both these guys to warrant a starting job. (Vaz and Leon) Im not saying im all for trading Swihart right now. But if an opportunity comes along mid season he could prove valuabe to the teams future in more ways than one...not you, I, or anyone of us fans knows for sure why Vaz was "demoted", just more boston rumors until proven otherwise.

Like I said. im big on D at catcher more than any position. Ill take a guy like Vaz or Leon and make up the offense somewhere else. Since this team has one of the best offenses I dont think they mind being more defensive minded when it comes to catcher and will deal with league average offense at the position.

I still say Vaz' bat will be better with regular Abs...just my opinion.

[notin]

 

UZR and DRS are not perfect, but I can tell you that they are a lot more comprehensive than you think. And they are very good. People need to remember that just because a stat is flawed it does not mean that the stat is useless or no good.

 

And usually critics of UZR and DRS prefer the eye test, without realizing there is a far more comprehensive eye test as part of these sabermetric stats.

 

In fact, non-sabermetric eye tests usually have no baseline and are purely subjective. And too often they turn into the "I saw that guy make an error once" test or the "reputation test", which is at least a little more accurate.

[moonslav59]

The D is plenty good with both these guys to warrant a starting job. (Vaz and Leon) Im not saying im all for trading Swihart right now. But if an opportunity comes along mid season he could prove valuabe to the teams future in more ways than one...not you, I, or anyone of us fans knows for sure why Vaz was "demoted", just more boston rumors until proven otherwise.

Like I said. im big on D at catcher more than any position. Ill take a guy like Vaz or Leon and make up the offense somewhere else. Since this team has one of the best offenses I dont think they mind being more defensive minded when it com.es to catcher and will deal with league average offense at the position.

I still say Vaz' bat will be better with regular Abs...just my opinion.

..

 

I agree, but I could see us trading Leon or Vaz as easily as Swihart.

[Kimmi]

The D is plenty good with both these guys to warrant a starting job. (Vaz and Leon) Im not saying im all for trading Swihart right now. But if an opportunity comes along mid season he could prove valuabe to the teams future in more ways than one...not you, I, or anyone of us fans knows for sure why Vaz was "demoted", just more boston rumors until proven otherwise.

Like I said. im big on D at catcher more than any position. Ill take a guy like Vaz or Leon and make up the offense somewhere else. Since this team has one of the best offenses I dont think they mind being more defensive minded when it comes to catcher and will deal with league average offense at the position.

I still say Vaz' bat will be better with regular Abs...just my opinion.

 

I like this post.

[Kimmi]

And usually critics of UZR and DRS prefer the eye test, without realizing there is a far more comprehensive eye test as part of these sabermetric stats.

 

In fact, non-sabermetric eye tests usually have no baseline and are purely subjective. And too often they turn into the "I saw that guy make an error once" test or the "reputation test", which is at least a little more accurate.

 

You're exactly right. I have heard many people say that they prefer the eye test because UZR is too subjective. What???

 

The eyes will lie to you. Confirmation bias is part of human nature. Sabermetric statisticians have measures in place to offset this bias as much as possible.

[moonslav59]

You're exactly right. I have heard many people say that they prefer the eye test because UZR is too subjective. What???

 

The eyes will lie to you. Confirmation bias is part of human nature. Sabermetric statisticians have measures in place to offset this bias as much as possible.

 

Plus who among us watches every single mlb game?

[notin]

Plus who among us watches every single mlb game?

 

The people who put together the UZR stat. Other than them, not really sure...

[bosoxmal]

Plus who among us watches every single mlb game?

 

I do. cover to cover. Win or lose. Rain or snow. Spring training or regular season. And they should forget about Swihart as a catcher. He's not a catcher. He was awful. He played well as in LF last year until he was hurt. It was not necessary to catch every game to see that. A .285 switch hitter in LF? Not bad, I'd say.

[moonslav59]

I do. cover to cover. Win or lose. Rain or snow. Spring training or regular season. And they should forget about Swihart as a catcher. He's not a catcher. He was awful. He played well as in LF last year until he was hurt. It was not necessary to catch every game to see that. A .285 switch hitter in LF? Not bad, I'd say.

 

I have watched pretty much every pitch of every Sox game for over 20 years, but no one person watches every pitch of every MLB game.

[Kimmi]

Plus who among us watches every single mlb game?

 

Exactly.

 

I have no doubt that the posters here are very intelligent baseball people and that they know good defenders when they see them. I am not trying suggest otherwise. However, they can't possibly know who the best defender at 2B is unless they watch pretty much every MLB game.

[Kimmi]

The people who put together the UZR stat. Other than them, not really sure...

 

I like this post.

[southpaw777]

..

 

I agree, but I could see us trading Leon or Vaz as easily as Swihart.

 

I won't disagree with that.. it really all depends on the return for each player

I always say Swihart because it's obvious he could probably get the biggest return

[oldtimer]

I won't disagree with that.. it really all depends on the return for each player

I always say Swihart because it's obvious he could probably get the biggest return

 

That is not at all obvious to me. Swihart was injured and is on the comeback trail. He is younger but he is not the defensive catcher the other two are at this point. He is a switch hitter and looks like he may have a better bat, but even that is a bit of an unknown as he has very little ML experience. If I was DD, I would listen to trade proposals on all three of our catchers at this point. If a good value can be found for one of them, then go with it.