Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[cp176]

One theory might be to trade an existing starter with someone like Swihart and/or Devers for someone better or more reliable.

 

I think that a trade of that nature might make sense obviously dependent on which pitcher we traded. Once again though - who is coming aboard? I really also think that if one or more of our young unknowns are traded a big play will be made for a bat to take Papi's place. If no trade is made, it is less likely that a dh bat will get signed.

[cp176]

Indeed. As it stands right now we have the best rotation we can have without doing something ludicrous. That's why the focus has been on the huge gap left by the parting of Ortiz.

 

 

i know that we have been focusing on the hole left by Ortiz. I don't know if the organization has been or not. I would still love to see a sensible trade made to get us a young totr starter. If no trade is made, I doubt seriously that a big bat gets signed. We have quite a few young position players that we just don't know much about. I don't think that they will all be playing in Pawtucket and Portland. it will become more likely that the dh position will be covered via committee.

[Wade Boggs]

why do you guys want to spend $$$ on a DH? pitching, pitching, pitching. or we are just looking to put up great O numbers in the regular season and then get swept out of the postseason again and again and again?

 

No great FA pitchers out there. Unless you want Jansen/ Chapman and overpay one of them for the bullpen.

I'd rather have Jansen. If you overpay him , he might bite on the setup role. The pitching you want will be by trade if it happens.

[Dojji]

i know that we have been focusing on the hole left by Ortiz. I don't know if the organization has been or not. I would still love to see a sensible trade made to get us a young totr starter. If no trade is made, I doubt seriously that a big bat gets signed. We have quite a few young position players that we just don't know much about. I don't think that they will all be playing in Pawtucket and Portland. it will become more likely that the dh position will be covered via committee.

 

Now see, I know you don't mean it that way, cp, but in this market, that statement in bold is actually a contradiction in terms. There's no ace on the market in FA, and that means that anyone who might consider trading a high level SP is going to be in a position to demand the sun the moon and all your stars. I can't look at the league right now and fathom a nonidiotic trade for a TOTR SP, especially because there's so few true year in, year out TOTR SPs out there, fewer than one per franchise (and owing to the tragedy in Florida, there's one less).

[cp176]

Now see, I know you don't mean it that way, cp, but in this market, that statement in bold is actually a contradiction in terms. There's no ace on the market in FA, and that means that anyone who might consider trading a high level SP is going to be in a position to demand the sun the moon and all your stars. I can't look at the league right now and fathom a nonidiotic trade for a TOTR SP, especially because there's so few true year in, year out TOTR SPs out there, fewer than one per franchise (and owing to the tragedy in Florida, there's one less).

 

I agree with your premise in general. But in actuality it depends on what sensible is to the parties involved. In order to trade for a good one so to speak, it will cost us for sure. Everyone knows that. What is sensible to you might not be sensible to me. What is sensible to us certainly might not be sensible to the organization. In my world, if it is going to cost us one good starter plus, only Betts is untradeable. i think that we improve the team with a trade. I'm for that as opposed to holding a pat hand. I want better pitching.

[Dojji]

I see "sensible" as something that increases rather than decreases our chances of being a winning team in 5 years. That's the kind of "sensible" trade I don't see happening.

[moonslav59]

But what pitcher would we be trying to acquire?

 

Someone better than the one we trade. It depends on who we trade.

 

If it's ERod, Swihart and Devers, I'd expect Quintana or Sale.

 

If it's Buchholz, I'd expect much less than Quintana but much more reliable than Buch. I can't think of anyone, so that's why I said "in theory". It might just be that and not reality.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

There's also a very important aspect involved with trading for a top SP'er under team control for 4+ years:

 

does the other GM highly value the players we send them. He may value them more than we do. He may want one player over another that seems surprising to us. He may view an offer like Pomeranz, Swihart and Devers as getting two solid plus starters for 2017 and three solid plus starters for 2018 and beyond.

 

We may view them all as questionable or highly questionable, but the GM might like them more than we do. (I know that's not very likely as we are prone to over-value our own prospects, but these guys have been ranked highly by national, unbiased services.)

 

The offer might also be something like JBJ, Swihart, Devers and Johnson. Then, we sign Beltran for LF/DH. We'd have an extra SP'er or two to deal for pen help (like Miley for CSmith) or to just put in the pen (Buch & Pom?).

 

[cp176]

I see "sensible" as something that increases rather than decreases our chances of being a winning team in 5 years. That's the kind of "sensible" trade I don't see happening.

 

That is undestandable. A good trade accomplishes both though i think. I'm not sure that I would sacrifice the next one or two years for what we might be in 5. There are no guarantees.

[Dojji]

That's what I mean though. People lambaste DD for his "win now" moves but his moves actually make perfect sense for a 3 year window, or did when they were made. Good short term moves that also augment the team for the intermediate term give the team time to iron our the remaining holes and possibly build an extended winner. Right now we don't have a hole in our rotation, and we don't have a major hole in our lineup at all.

 

Trading for an ace would be an exercise in making problems for ourselves -- it might be worth it anyway, aces are incredibly valuable, , but if I'm an owner, I don't rest my team on a "maybe" if I don't have to. And we don't -- this rotation is made up almost entirely of pitchers that have shown at least flashes of TOTR ability. One of these guys should be "on" at any given time.

[bosoxmal]

What if it's Bradley and Bogaerts? Would Lindor do?

 

Forget upgrading the pitching. Someone in the FO has a things about lefties. Lester, Hill and Miller have done just fine elsewhere. That's not a coincidence, that's incompetence.

[moonslav59]

...Right now we don't have a hole in our rotation, and we don't have a major hole in our lineup at all...

 

I'd say 3B looks to be a "major hole", but at least our best two prospects play 3B. We also have Pablo returning and T Shaw showing some hope. Holt & Hernandez offer some nice back-up support, and maybe between those 4 and Moncada, some one will rise to the top. That's the optimistic view, but the fact is our 3B position batted .685 this year (16 points behind the 29th best team in MLB). Only 6 other teams were below .730 at 3B. Two-thirds of all teams were above .752 and more than one-third were above .795. What's worse is how we ended the season with a .595 3B OPS. That's sickening. That's a massive hole. That's the pessimist view.

 

Our catcher position also has a high risk of being a "hole in the line-up" on offense. Swihart offers a lot of promise to change that, but he is by far, the weakest defender of the three, so he may not play much as a catcher. Our .681 catcher OPS was highly inflated by Leon's hot streak that could easily be just a fluke. We ended the season with a .606 OPS in September. I'm very concerned about our catcher offense next year, but to me, the catcher position is mostly about defense, so I'm not worried about our overall cacther value when compared to other teams.

 

The DH position could also be a concern. Right now, we are looking at the strong possibility (assuming no acquisition) that Young will DH vs LHPs, but who will be the DH vs RHPs? Pablo? Moncada? Swihart? HanRam could DH, but then the concern transfers to 1B.

 

Overall, I'm happy with our offense and think we have less "holes" than almost every other team in MLB, even without Papi in the line-up.

 

[Dojji]

...Right now we don't have a hole in our rotation, and we don't have a major hole in our lineup at all...

 

I'd say 3B looks to be a "major hole",

 

It really isn't. We have a 2 WAR guy there. You have to really put way too much stock in Shaw's miserable September to declare 3B a "hole" at this time. And besides that, for what it's worth, we have 2 utility guys and maybe even Panda that could put up replacement level play at the position.

 

It's an area that we can potentially improve the roster with the right trade, but that's not exactly the same thing as a "hole".

[cp176]

...Right now we don't have a hole in our rotation, and we don't have a major hole in our lineup at all...

 

I'd say 3B looks to be a "major hole", but at least our best two prospects play 3B. We also have Pablo returning and T Shaw showing some hope. Holt & Hernandez offer some nice back-up support, and maybe between those 4 and Moncada, some one will rise to the top. That's the optimistic view, but the fact is our 3B position batted .685 this year (16 points behind the 29th best team in MLB). Only 6 other teams were below .730 at 3B. Two-thirds of all teams were above .752 and more than one-third were above .795. What's worse is how we ended the season with a .595 3B OPS. That's sickening. That's a massive hole. That's the pessimist view.

 

Our catcher position also has a high risk of being a "hole in the line-up" on offense. Swihart offers a lot of promise to change that, but he is by far, the weakest defender of the three, so he may not play much as a catcher. Our .681 catcher OPS was highly inflated by Leon's hot streak that could easily be just a fluke. We ended the season with a .606 OPS in September. I'm very concerned about our catcher offense next year, but to me, the catcher position is mostly about defense, so I'm not worried about our overall cacther value when compared to other teams.

 

The DH position could also be a concern. Right now, we are looking at the strong possibility (assuming no acquisition) that Young will DH vs LHPs, but who will be the DH vs RHPs? Pablo? Moncada? Swihart? HanRam could DH, but then the concern transfers to 1B.

 

Overall, I'm happy with our offense and think we have less "holes" than almost every other team in MLB, even without Papi in the line-up.

 

 

 

If third base is a huge hole in the minds of some, then I would say we are in pretty good shape.

[cp176]

That's what I mean though. People lambaste DD for his "win now" moves but his moves actually make perfect sense for a 3 year window, or did when they were made. Good short term moves that also augment the team for the intermediate term give the team time to iron our the remaining holes and possibly build an extended winner. Right now we don't have a hole in our rotation, and we don't have a major hole in our lineup at all.

 

Trading for an ace would be an exercise in making problems for ourselves -- it might be worth it anyway, aces are incredibly valuable, , but if I'm an owner, I don't rest my team on a "maybe" if I don't have to. And we don't -- this rotation is made up almost entirely of pitchers that have shown at least flashes of TOTR ability. One of these guys should be "on" at any given time.

 

 

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that I agree with your line of reasoning. I think I have actually been saying as much. I don't think that trading just to trade makes any sense. If an opportunity arises to get that special pitcher, we really do have to look at it though. The Red Sox should be dealing from strength though.

[Dojji]

All our position of strength is going to give us in the face of this much scarcity, is the security to hang up the phone. If big aces change hands, someone will always be more desperate than we will.

[Kimmi]

...Right now we don't have a hole in our rotation, and we don't have a major hole in our lineup at all...

 

I'd say 3B looks to be a "major hole", but at least our best two prospects play 3B. We also have Pablo returning and T Shaw showing some hope. Holt & Hernandez offer some nice back-up support, and maybe between those 4 and Moncada, some one will rise to the top. That's the optimistic view, but the fact is our 3B position batted .685 this year (16 points behind the 29th best team in MLB). Only 6 other teams were below .730 at 3B. Two-thirds of all teams were above .752 and more than one-third were above .795. What's worse is how we ended the season with a .595 3B OPS. That's sickening. That's a massive hole. That's the pessimist view.

 

Our catcher position also has a high risk of being a "hole in the line-up" on offense. Swihart offers a lot of promise to change that, but he is by far, the weakest defender of the three, so he may not play much as a catcher. Our .681 catcher OPS was highly inflated by Leon's hot streak that could easily be just a fluke. We ended the season with a .606 OPS in September. I'm very concerned about our catcher offense next year, but to me, the catcher position is mostly about defense, so I'm not worried about our overall cacther value when compared to other teams.

 

The DH position could also be a concern. Right now, we are looking at the strong possibility (assuming no acquisition) that Young will DH vs LHPs, but who will be the DH vs RHPs? Pablo? Moncada? Swihart? HanRam could DH, but then the concern transfers to 1B.

 

Overall, I'm happy with our offense and think we have less "holes" than almost every other team in MLB, even without Papi in the line-up.

 

 

IMO, the team has no major holes. I think if Dombrowski brought back the exact same team minus Papi, we would contend in 2017. Yes, there is room for improvement, as there always is, but I don't think anything is glaring.

[Kimmi]

That's what I mean though. People lambaste DD for his "win now" moves but his moves actually make perfect sense for a 3 year window, or did when they were made. Good short term moves that also augment the team for the intermediate term give the team time to iron our the remaining holes and possibly build an extended winner. Right now we don't have a hole in our rotation, and we don't have a major hole in our lineup at all.

 

Trading for an ace would be an exercise in making problems for ourselves -- it might be worth it anyway, aces are incredibly valuable, , but if I'm an owner, I don't rest my team on a "maybe" if I don't have to. And we don't -- this rotation is made up almost entirely of pitchers that have shown at least flashes of TOTR ability. One of these guys should be "on" at any given time.

 

Dombrowski's moves, to date, have not decimated our long term outlook because our farm system was deep. If continues to deal in the same way, however, the state of our team could be in trouble in a few years. That is not the way to build a team.

[Dojji]

But because he's set us up for the next 2 years without major adjustments he doesn't need to "continue to deal the same way." Why would we? We're set up now.

 

He made big moves because he was managing a cellar dweller who literally hired him to get them off the cellar. Right now we're a division champ that requires maybe a touch of fine tuning. DD is not an idiot, different situations require different strategies and he knows that. I predict a very quiet offseason for Boston, maybe a few minor moves for the bullpen and bench, that's about it.

[moonslav59]

IMO, the team has no major holes. I think if Dombrowski brought back the exact same team minus Papi, we would contend in 2017. Yes, there is room for improvement, as there always is, but I don't think anything is glaring.

 

We had the worst 3B WAR and the worst 3B OPS. Unless Moncada or Pablo improve out position, it's still a major or "glaring" hole.

 

Our pen stunk for most of the year. A major reason we did much better towards the end of the year was the acquisition of Ziegler and the return of Uehara and to a lesser extent Tazwa. None of those guys are signed for us next year. The pen, as it looks now, is a huge glaring and gaping hole.

 

Can we still win with two big holes? Yes, but when you count the loss of Papi at DH, I seriously doubt we won't make at least one serious move to fill one of those holes or get a big bat DH.

 

[Dojji]

You're focusing way too much on offensive OPS at 3B. We've got enough offense elsewhere on the team that a weak hitter at 3B is tolerable. And Shaw is an elite defender, he returned a lot of defensive value as a third baseman. That's why despite his poor bat, he returned average value by bWAR at 3B last year and why 3B is not a hole. It's an area for potential improvement, that's not the same thing as a "hole."

 

As for the bullpen that's the same thing. We can improve there. If we don't make a major move our bullpen should probably still be adequate however. Unlike 3B I do predict DD will make a move or two to brace up the middle of the bullpen.

[Kimmi]

But because he's set us up for the next 2 years without major adjustments he doesn't need to "continue to deal the same way." Why would we? We're set up now.

 

He made big moves because he was managing a cellar dweller who literally hired him to get them off the cellar. Right now we're a division champ that requires maybe a touch of fine tuning. DD is not an idiot, different situations require different strategies and he knows that. I predict a very quiet offseason for Boston, maybe a few minor moves for the bullpen and bench, that's about it.

 

I agree with all of this. I am not yet convinced that Dombrowski won't 'continue to deal the same way', which is where my concern comes in.

 

I agree that we don't need any big moves, and have said so many times. I have also said that at this point, our future is still in very good shape.

 

If Dombrowski pays a fortune for Encarnacion and/or trades several young players for a young pitcher, then all bets are off.

[Dojji]

I don't see where a trade like that actually exists right now. As far as I can see there is no pitcher, much less a trade for a pitcher. The closest thing I can see to a big trade for a pitcher is possibly a trade for a solid middle innings guy from a team in a position to sell one at a reasonable price, Luke Hochevar or someone like him.

[Nick]

I don't see where a trade like that actually exists right now. As far as I can see there is no pitcher, much less a trade for a pitcher. The closest thing I can see to a big trade for a pitcher is possibly a trade for a solid middle innings guy from a team in a position to sell one at a reasonable price, Luke Hochevar or someone like him.

 

If there is a hole, it's at DH. If Hanley is DH, then there's a hole at 1B. If Shaw is at 1B, there's a hole at 3B.

 

Discussion is reminiscent of "we don't have an ace but we have five #2's. This is half billion dollar operation. You can't go half ass 'hoping'.

 

DD will reinforce the bullpen. Picking up Clay's option will give us some depth. That's critical because we're not sure where Wright will be physically in April.

 

I just don't see DD not addressing Papi's missing bat with something more than abc will get it done as a committee,

[Bellhorn04]

Bautista might be a good candidate for DH if they can sign him for reasonable money. The interest in him may not be that high.

 

He has tremendous numbers at Fenway, a .972 OPS and 24 HR in 68 games.

[Dojji]

I am very much interested to see whether the team even signs a DH. There's good arguments to be made for not doing so, especially with a number of up and coming young hitters in the minors

[Slasher9]

Do you think maybe we should trade Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley and Beni for pitching?

 

I would trade any of them for a parade.

 

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

Anyone been watching the world series?

[Slasher9]

But yeah....let's focus on dh. Because: chicks dig the long ball

[Kimmi]

We had the worst 3B WAR and the worst 3B OPS. Unless Moncada or Pablo improve out position, it's still a major or "glaring" hole.

 

Our pen stunk for most of the year. A major reason we did much better towards the end of the year was the acquisition of Ziegler and the return of Uehara and to a lesser extent Tazwa. None of those guys are signed for us next year. The pen, as it looks now, is a huge glaring and gaping hole.

 

Can we still win with two big holes? Yes, but when you count the loss of Papi at DH, I seriously doubt we won't make at least one serious move to fill one of those holes or get a big bat DH.

 

 

The team was a 98 Win team, according to its Pythagorean W-L, with the worst 3B and the stinky pen. I agree that both of those areas are areas of weakness that can be upgraded. I don't agree that they are 'glaring' weaknesses.

 

I don't think it would be wise of Dombrowski to stand pat and not try to upgrade. I would focus on the pen and hope that the 3B situation works itself out.

 

I just don't think that any big move needs to be made. A couple of tweaks here and there should be sufficient.

[Kimmi]

You're focusing way too much on offensive OPS at 3B. We've got enough offense elsewhere on the team that a weak hitter at 3B is tolerable. And Shaw is an elite defender, he returned a lot of defensive value as a third baseman. That's why despite his poor bat, he returned average value by bWAR at 3B last year and why 3B is not a hole. It's an area for potential improvement, that's not the same thing as a "hole."

 

As for the bullpen that's the same thing. We can improve there. If we don't make a major move our bullpen should probably still be adequate however. Unlike 3B I do predict DD will make a move or two to brace up the middle of the bullpen.

 

Well said.