Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[mvp 78]

When you said they'd pick up his option, Buchholz was pitching terribly and had been banished to the pen. Not that I ever said you were being foolish, but to say at that time that picking up the option was a no brainer was a bit of a stretch, unlike last year. It's still a stretch to say the decision this year is a no brainer.

 

He was pitching in the pen, but NOT terribly. Not ace-like as others have stated though.

[mvp 78]

How could Buch or ERod be a second half ace when they haven't had the amount of starts Price has (with Buch it's not close)?

[Bellhorn04]

You think he's done better?

 

You said by the numbers he wasn't the ace. I provided some numbers that say he is. That was the point of that post.

 

I think Porcello has been a little better. But the expectations for Price were a lot higher so that tends to factor into perceptions.

 

Porcello has really benefitted from run support too. When the team wins every time you take the ball it makes you look pretty damn good.

[moonslav59]

You said by the numbers he wasn't the ace. I provided some numbers that say he is. That was the point of that post.

 

I think Porcello has been a little better. But the expectations for Price were a lot higher so that tends to factor into perceptions.

 

Porcello has really benefitted from run support too. When the team wins every time you take the ball it makes you look pretty damn good.

 

While I think WAR is a useful metric, I think it goes overboard on FIP.

 

Porcello has been better and more consistent. ERA- and WHIP are both better and the IP are about the same.

[moonslav59]

How could Buch or ERod be a second half ace when they haven't had the amount of starts Price has (with Buch it's not close)?

 

Just because I showed Buch and ERod had better ERAs, where did I say they were closer to being the ace?

 

Porcello is our ace, and if Wright didn't get hurt, he'd be neck and neck with Price (by the numbers) as the number two guy.

[southpaw777]

Good answer, you belong in politics.

 

Ha! Go figure because I cant stand listening to a bunch of political lies and ********.

Really, I have a top two right now and the 3-4 are Pom and Buch...probably like most fans right now. to me, they are tied for that fourth spot. I reserve the right to change my mind due to injury or poor performance. Which is why I said Ill wait til Septembers and to decide.

I wont pick my fourth right now. That would be premature. With the way Buch looks and seeming to have a new attitude, I say hes the favorite right now IMHO.

I dont see Wright being a playoff starter and Erod hasnt been reliable or consistent all year.

Edited September 9, 2016 by southpaw777

[southpaw777]

If Koji keeps pitching like he did last night and Kimbrel continues to not be able to find the plate with both hands and a flashlight I hope the idea not only rolls through his head, it also comes out of his mouth.

 

Kimbrel is frustrating out there, but he usually get the job done. Albeit with a bit of "excitement" ...thats not enough to pull him from his only MLB role...remeber he pretty much becomes useless not closing. He hasnt been good in non save situations and you want him to start a clean inning if possible...koji locking down the 8th is HUGE. Barnes/Zig seems pretty good for the most part for the 7th...

[Slasher9]

SOMETIMES? Frustrating sometimes?? This guy goes to three balls on nearly every batter he faces. As someone else here said, it appears that he has no idea where that ball is going when it leaves his hand. All he knows is that it's going to be going fast.

 

He's walking a tightrope out there and even Karl Wallenda fell of the tightrope eventually. My plan were I John Farrell would be to use Koji in a couple of low-impact situations soon and if he continues to perform well use him as a spot closer. Let Mr. Wildness sit on the bench and watch a master at work. If that works out make Kimbrel the 8th inning guy, and if he can't handle that then we should be looking for a trade partner in the off season. He's no good to the team if he can't be depended on to get outs.

 

I agree with everything you said here S. i think JF is in a tough position here because this was a DD trade to bring in Kimbrell. I'm sure the "pressure" from the boss is to not Eff with Kimbrell as closer. i think we are in for some very gnawed on fingernails for the next month or (hopefully) 2.....

[moonslav59]

Ha! Go figure because I cant stand listening to a bunch of political lies and ********.

Really, I have a top two right now and the 3-4 are Pom and Buch...probably like most fans right now. to me, they are tied for that fourth spot. I reserve the right to change my mind due to injury or poor performance. Which is why I said Ill wait til Septembers and to decide.

I wont pick my fourth right now. That would be premature. With the way Buch looks and seeming to have a new attitude, I say hes the favorite right now IMHO.

I dont see Wright being a playoff starter and Erod hasnt been reliable or consistent all year.

 

People have noticed how Buch is looking like the good Bcu of late, but he has clearly been our most inconsistent pitcher this year and over recent time periods.

 

While ERod has looked inconsistent as well, and has battled injuries and maybe "pitch-tipping" issues, he's actually had a longer consistent stretch than Buch:

 

ERod since July 16th

IP H+BB ER

7.0 6 1

5.1 7 2

5.1 12 3

6.1 5 1

4.1 9 3

7.0 4 1

4.0 2 0 (Had to leave early)

5.1 8 5 (1st game back after 11 days off)

8.0 3 0

If you don't count his first game back, he has gone 19 IP allowing just 9 H+BB and 1 ER!

 

It's hard to compare Buch's recent record with anyone, since he has had relief outings mixed in with his starts. Here are Buch's last 7 starts (3 in June & 3 in Aug & 1 in SEP):

 

5.0 5 3

5.1 12 4

4.1 8 3

 

4.1 6 3

6.0 6 1

6.1 7 1

 

6.2 8 1

 

His last 19 IP: 21 H + BB and 3 ER. Both him and ERod have looked very sharp of late.

 

Here's Pomeranz in BOS:

3.0 10 5

6.0 6 2

5.1 8 5

6.0 10 2

5.1 7 1

7.2 7 2

5.0 4 1

6.0 8 2

6.2 7 3

5.2 8 2

 

If you throw out his first 3 games, he's gone 7 straight starts without allowing more than 3 ERs, and that was only once. His WHIP over that time looks worse than Buch and ERod's recent numbers though.

 

To me, it's a three way race for the final 2 slots in the playoff 4 man rotation. I'd give the edge to ERod, if he's healthy with Buch close behind. Pomeranz still has a strong chance to finish in the top 2, and he's probably management's 3rd starter right now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

While I think WAR is a useful metric, I think it goes overboard on FIP.

 

Porcello has been better and more consistent. ERA- and WHIP are both better and the IP are about the same.

 

I don't disagree. Porcello has been fantastic this year.

[S5Dewey]

 

To me, it's a three way race for the final 2 slots in the playoff 4 man rotation. I'd give the edge to ERod, if he's healthy with Buch close behind. Pomeranz still has a strong chance to finish in the top 2, and he's probably management's 3rd starter right now.

 

This is a great problem to have and one that no one would have imagined two months ago.

 

My first two would be Price & Porcillo in no particular order. Porcillo has earned the right to start game 1 but Price's history is better, so I could live with either one without second-guessing Farrell if it doesn't work out.

 

My #3 is between Pomeranz and Buch on a short leash. Pom has looked very good in his recent outings, but I can't overlook the fact that when Buch is on his game he's an ace - and he's been on his game recently. The next three weeks will tell us a lot about those two.

 

I like ERod - very much - but his youth and lack of post-season experience concerns me. There's a lot of pressure out there in the post-season.

[S5Dewey]

I agree with everything you said here S. i think JF is in a tough position here because this was a DD trade to bring in Kimbrell. I'm sure the "pressure" from the boss is to not Eff with Kimbrell as closer. i think we are in for some very gnawed on fingernails for the next month or (hopefully) 2.....

 

Not DISagreeing, SP, but this is an interesting situation power-wise. I agree that DD may put some covert pressure on Farrell to keep Kimbrel as the closer, but at the same time DD has committed to putting the best players on the field, e.g. relegating Sandoval to the bench coming out of ST. And I know that Sandoval wasn't a DD pickup.

 

My HOPE is that Kimbrel will begin to fear for his spot and learn how to throw strikes - repeatedly. Anyone who's done any pitching at all knows that this game is SO MUCH EASIER when you're ahead of the hitter.

[mvp 78]

Just because I showed Buch and ERod had better ERAs, where did I say they were closer to being the ace?

 

Porcello is our ace, and if Wright didn't get hurt, he'd be neck and neck with Price (by the numbers) as the number two guy.

 

You didn't say who was the #2, I inferred it when you posted the ERAs. Wright is not the #2 guy right now. He's been toast for a while now.

[sk7326]

FanGraphs has Price as our ace over Porcello, 4.5 WAR to 4.0 WAR.

 

Prices has more innings and a better FIP.

 

The batted ball premise is the difference between the the two measures of WAR. fWAR essentially treats it as random, and bWAR doesn't. The truth unfortunately is squishy. So fWAR can understate for a pitcher who actually has a history of allowing lower BABIPs.

 

Porcello 4.2 bWAR, 4.0 fWAR

Price 3.2 bWAR, 4.5 fWAR

 

Porcello's performance has been less variable - but it has been fairly close. If you average them it is Porcello 4.1, Price 3.85 - which seems about right. Clearly Price has had some bad outings - but he has provided tremendous bulk value even when he has scuffled. (i.e. he has pitched a lot of innings, and has had a knack for rescuing bad starts to turn over something competitive) And his underlying peripherals are largely what they always were. Porcello has been more consistent obviously.

 

Price to me is the clear choice if it is one game for all the marbles. There has been bumps as he has gotten used to a new gig - but he is the same pitcher he ever was.

[Wade Boggs]

As of now... things could change. IMO

 

 

Porcello

Price

Pomaranz

 

Erod (in the bullpen as the late inning Lefty to get those tough LHH out)

 

 

If we are playing a short 3 out of 5 series. I might go to a 3 man staff depending on the days off in the schedule. ( somebody might have to pitch on three days rest) I would have to look at the matchup first.

 

I would carry both Erod/ Buchholz in the pen... It could be a better debate in a 4 out of 7 format of who should pitch the 4th game. If somebody put a gun to my head and I had to use four starters in a short series.... Buchholz because of his ex. He's been there.

[moonslav59]

This is a great problem to have and one that no one would have imagined two months ago.

 

My first two would be Price & Porcillo in no particular order. Porcillo has earned the right to start game 1 but Price's history is better, so I could live with either one without second-guessing Farrell if it doesn't work out.

 

My #3 is between Pomeranz and Buch on a short leash. Pom has looked very good in his recent outings, but I can't overlook the fact that when Buch is on his game he's an ace - and he's been on his game recently. The next three weeks will tell us a lot about those two.

 

I like ERod - very much - but his youth and lack of post-season experience concerns me. There's a lot of pressure out there in the post-season.

 

Price's playoff history and experience are not great, so using his "history" as an asset may be counter intuitive.

 

Post Season:

Price 2-7 5.12 (1.17 WHIP) 63 IP

Porcello 0-2 4.41 (1.22) 16 IP

Buchholz 0-0 4.21 (1.44) 26 IP

ERod, Wright and Pomeranz have no PO experience.

.

[moonslav59]

As of now... things could change. IMO

 

 

Porcello

Price

Pomaranz

 

Erod (in the bullpen as the late inning Lefty to get those tough LHH out)

 

 

If we are playing a short 3 out of 5 series. I might go to a 3 man staff depending on the days off in the schedule. ( somebody might have to pitch on three days rest) I would have to look at the matchup first.

 

I would carry both Erod/ Buchholz in the pen... It could be a better debate in a 4 out of 7 format of who should pitch the 4th game. If somebody put a gun to my head and I had to use four starters in a short series.... Buchholz because of his ex. He's been there.

 

There's not as many days off as there used to be in the playoffs. With our bottom 3 starts all about equal and doing very well recently, I don't see the need to go to a 3 man rotation.

[mvp 78]

There's not as many days off as there used to be in the playoffs. With our bottom 3 starts all about equal and doing very well recently, I don't see the need to go to a 3 man rotation.

 

I agree with this as well.

[sk7326]

Just because I showed Buch and ERod had better ERAs, where did I say they were closer to being the ace?

 

Porcello is our ace, and if Wright didn't get hurt, he'd be neck and neck with Price (by the numbers) as the number two guy.

 

The numbers say one thing - the 2016 numbers. The longer run numbers put Price at #1. And nothing Price has done this season gives reason to throw out the long run as a consideration. While Porcello's season allows me to set aside the first half of 2015 as some horrible lapse - Price's last 3 or 4 years allow me to set aside his bumpy starts this season in the consideration - a 3 or 4 years clearly better than Porcello.

 

There are three starters for two positions. To me, it is not simply a matter of which two starters are the "best" - there is a decent chance to punch up the bullpen at the same time and you should take advantage of that opportunity. With Pomeranz having pen experience and being up against a career high in IP, and with Rodriguez having some wipeout stuff which could play up out of the pen, AND with Buchholz actually having done it this season ... Farrell has an interesting dilemma. To me ERod has the highest risk (since he has not pitched out of the pen) and the highest upside.

[Wade Boggs]

Price's playoff history and experience are not great, so using his "history" as an asset may be counter intuitive.

 

Post Season:

Price 2-7 5.12 (1.17 WHIP) 63 IP

Porcello 0-2 4.41 (1.22) 16 IP

Buchholz 0-0 4.21 (1.44) 26 IP

ERod, Wright and Pomeranz have no PO experience.

.

 

Kind of reminded me of Lester that one year they won it. They was some debate of having him on the playoff roster. Let's also keep in mind these games this weekend , that Erod and Buchholz are pitching in are pretty close to playoff games. As we go into the home stretch you find out all you need to know.

[sk7326]

Price's playoff history and experience are not great, so using his "history" as an asset may be counter intuitive.

 

Post Season:

Price 2-7 5.12 (1.17 WHIP) 63 IP

Porcello 0-2 4.41 (1.22) 16 IP

Buchholz 0-0 4.21 (1.44) 26 IP

ERod, Wright and Pomeranz have no PO experience.

.

 

Farrell will have to determine whether he wants to risk the 3rd and 4th time through the order penalties that he has dealt with vis a vis the starters - in the postseason.

 

Price has had some problems - although on a start to start basis, a lot of the starts were things falling apart 4th time through the lineup without the manager doing anything. A lot of his rough starts have had the feel of the Lester 2014 playoff start - a manager not moving a muscle while the season slips away.

[moonslav59]

You didn't say who was the #2, I inferred it when you posted the ERAs. Wright is not the #2 guy right now. He's been toast for a while now.

 

I'd rank out starters like this:

 

Season: Porcello, Price with Wright close behind

 

1st half: Wright, Porcello, Price

2nd half: Porcello, Price, 3 way tie for third (Pom, Buch & ERod)

 

I should have been clearer with my original post. I just posted ERA and not IP, but it was meant to show that Price was not pitching like our best pitcher in the first or second half, and since Porcello was 1 or 2 in both halves, I'd call him our ace.

 

Plus, the whole FIP thing discredits pitchers like Porcello and helps high K pitchers like Price regardless of how many outs they are getting.

 

We like to use OPS to judge a player's hitting, so let's look at OPS against for 2016:

 

.648 Porcello (187 IP)

.653 Wright (157 IP)

.707 Price (198 IP)

(.728 starter average)

(.718 team average)

.744 ERod

.762 Pomeranz

.766 Buchholz (.809 as a starter)

 

starter WHIP

1.02 Porcello

1.20 Price

1.25 Wright

 

Porcello blows price away in these important categories.

 

[S5Dewey]

Price's playoff history and experience are not great, so using his "history" as an asset may be counter intuitive.

 

Post Season:

Price 2-7 5.12 (1.17 WHIP) 63 IP

Porcello 0-2 4.41 (1.22) 16 IP

Buchholz 0-0 4.21 (1.44) 26 IP

ERod, Wright and Pomeranz have no PO experience.

.

 

Yes. I agree, and I realize that Price's playoff history isn't what we wish it were. That was my concern in signing him and I think I said it someplace, that Price may be a guy who can get us there but doesn't have a history of getting his team out the other side unscathed.

 

What I was referring to in his 'history' is how well he's pitched during the second half of this year. I tend to optimistically think a player's next performance is more closely related to his most recent starts than it is to anything else.

 

My bad. I should have been clearer.

[Slasher9]

well...the good news is that we can actually have a debate on who should get Postseason starts. we have 5 SP that are pitching very, very well right now. and most importantly...we are actually in a position to make the playoffs....

life is good.

[SoxnCycles]

well...the good news is that we can actually have a debate on who should get Postseason starts. we have 5 SP that are pitching very, very well right now. and most importantly...we are actually in a position to make the playoffs....

life is good.

 

The rotation is finally looking good, thanks to Buchholz and Pomeranz.

The bullpen still scares me, as far as the playoffs go.

The Sox will need Koji to be that 8th inning guy.

[mvp 78]

The rotation is finally looking good, thanks to Buchholz and Pomeranz.

The bullpen still scares me, as far as the playoffs go.

The Sox will need Koji to be that 8th inning guy.

 

That's why I'd put Buchholz back in the bullpen during the playoffs and have ERod start.

[SoxnCycles]

Then the Sox should definitely do the opposite.

[mvp 78]

Then the Sox should definitely do the opposite.

 

Yup.

 

Then the Sox shouldn't pick up his option, should never play Hanley at 1b, should play Pablo no matter what, etc.

 

And boy, doesn't that Price suck! I mean innings pitched is stupid. Quality Starts is a stupid stat too. Good he's so horrible. Whine whine whine.

 

I for one am glad that we have a neckbeard white knight poster on TS! Thank you for existing!

[Maxbialystock]

That's why I'd put Buchholz back in the bullpen during the playoffs and have ERod start.

 

Strenuously disagree. Right now Buchholz is our third best starter and our fourth best is ERod.

 

The bullpen is the best it's been all year with Kimbrel, Ziegler, Uehara, Ross, Kelly, and Abad. We don't need Buch in the bullpen, especially not when he wasn't that good his last two times out as a reliever.

Edited September 9, 2016 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

The numbers say one thing - the 2016 numbers. The longer run numbers put Price at #1. And nothing Price has done this season gives reason to throw out the long run as a consideration. While Porcello's season allows me to set aside the first half of 2015 as some horrible lapse - Price's last 3 or 4 years allow me to set aside his bumpy starts this season in the consideration - a 3 or 4 years clearly better than Porcello.

 

There are three starters for two positions. To me, it is not simply a matter of which two starters are the "best" - there is a decent chance to punch up the bullpen at the same time and you should take advantage of that opportunity. With Pomeranz having pen experience and being up against a career high in IP, and with Rodriguez having some wipeout stuff which could play up out of the pen, AND with Buchholz actually having done it this season ... Farrell has an interesting dilemma. To me ERod has the highest risk (since he has not pitched out of the pen) and the highest upside.

 

Long run, agreed: Price is the clear ace when looking at a 2-4 years sample size.