Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[Dojji]

No one....yet. That will be answered when kneE-Rod comes off the DL....

Nope. It's already been made clear that our favorite former adventurer is going to be replacing Buchholz in the rotation.

 

Kelly's not good but he's not a disaster as a 5th starter and he still does have that tantalizing upside. Meanwhile, Buchholz has pitched his way out of the rotation. This is not an arbitrary decision, it's something Clay Buchholz has thoroughly earned as a result of his own performance, and they gave him about 1/3 of a season's worth of rope which if anything is very generous.

Edited May 28, 2016 by Dojji

[Bellhorn04]

Nope. It's already been made clear that our favorite former adventurer is going to be replacing Buchholz in the rotation.

 

Kelly's not good but he's not a disaster as a 5th starter and he still does have that tantalizing upside. Meanwhile, Buchholz has pitched his way out of the rotation. This is not an arbitrary decision, it's something Clay Buchholz has thoroughly earned as a result of his own performance, and they gave him about 1/3 of a season's worth of rope which if anything is very generous.

 

I think Kelly has been a disaster. 20 innings of 6.30 ball in spite of one great start. He's a tantalizer, all right. Maybe even a worse one than Buch.

[Dojji]

But at least he has had that one flash of brilliance. If I have to have one of the two guys vying with Matt Clement for worst Red Sox starter in recent memory to stay in the bottom of the rotation, I'll take the guy that shows the most sign of improving. Right now that guy is not Clay Buchholz.

 

For the record -- Clement got 12 games, Buchholz? Got 10 games. The hook is pretty consistent here. If a guy is providing nothing by the 1/3 waypoint, a team's got to seriously explore its options.

 

I still think Kelly's going to finish the year somewhere other than in our rotation as well, I really do still feel that a trade for Ervin Santana or someone like him will eventually happen. Our top 3 isn't bad, and anyway we're not getting that TOTR guy that people lust after because the budget in talent and salary won't allow it, but we do really need one more durable mid rotation guy to protect against injury.

Edited May 28, 2016 by Dojji

[S5Dewey]

But at least he has had that one flash of brilliance. If I have to have one of the two guys vying with Matt Clement for worst Red Sox starter in recent memory to stay in the bottom of the rotation, I'll take the guy that shows the most sign of improving. Right now that guy is not Clay Buchholz.

Wow. Thats a harsh indictment for a guy who was struck in the head by a batted ball that essentially ended his career. He was 10-2 with the Sox before the All-star break that year,got hit in late July and ended up 13-6 after being out for quite a while recovering and while he kicked around baseball after that he never was effective after that.

[Dojji]

your memory is faulty. Clement came back from that beanball to the head and pitched alright later in that season. clement then went on to be the worst Red Sox starter I've ever seen in 2006 before going down to a shoulder injury (nothing to do with the head) and never pitching in the big leagues again.

[Jasonbay44]

I would take Clement over Brad Penny's time with the Sox

[Dojji]

Penny finished 2009 with a 93 ERA+ 83 ERA+ with the red sox. Not even close to the worst we've ever seen.

 

Although I do have to admit, I blocked daisuke Matsuzaka's 2012 campaign from my memory.

[S5Dewey]

your memory is faulty. Clement came back from that beanball to the head and pitched alright later in that season. clement then went on to be the worst Red Sox starter I've ever seen in 2006 before going down to a shoulder injury (nothing to do with the head) and never pitching in the big leagues again.

 

Well... the guy was 10-2 at the AS game and before he got hit in the head. After getting hit late in July he was out for an extended period (poor choice of words?) and finished the season at 13-6 with an ERA just north of 4.5. Gotta think getting hit in the head had something to do with that.

 

I'll admit he was just short of dreadful in 2006, 5-5, ERA above 6.5 in a dozen games before the shoulder surgery, Wait.. maybe that's not short of dreadful. Maybe it is dreadful. Yeah, I'll give you that. 2006 was a dreadful year for him.

[SinceYaz]

Perhaps Buchholz is hiding an injury or isn't really all that healthy? He does have a track record of trying to pitch through injury. He does have a track record for pitching really well when he's 100%. We'll see how it all unfolds soon enough. With Buch or w/out Buch, I'd still like to see a trade for a TOTR SP go down. Although thats still a ways off.

 

The injury is one to three inches behind his orbital bones, about 45 degrees upward. Probably his left temporal lobe.

[moonslav59]

The White Sox are reportedly going hard for Jamie Shields.

Depending on how much the Padres are willing to pay towards his remaining deal, it may not cost much to get him in terms of prospects.

Getting Shields and paying his whole contract would put a big squeeze on our future budget.

He's getting older by the day.

But, he is a quality starter.

[jacksonianmarch]

When you lost Carson Smith, you lost a big time power arm. Something big league, World Series contending teams need nowadays. This has caused Uehara to be exposed and is going to push Tazawa to his breaking point again. You need both a quality starter and at least a reliable setup guy.

[iortiz]

When you lost Carson Smith, you lost a big time power arm. Something big league, World Series contending teams need nowadays. This has caused Uehara to be exposed and is going to push Tazawa to his breaking point again. You need both a quality starter and at least a reliable setup guy.

 

Yup. This what I said in the game thread. We need a young reliable arm. Koji is getting old and is not reliable anymore.

[User Name]

Did Koji steal your lunch money when you were a kid? You're consistently hanging on Papelbon's balls and how awesome he is, yet he has to be treated with pretty much the same care Uehara is. The main difference is that, as a closer, he can be deployed much more carefully than Koji is right now as a set up man, so he's being exposed. And make no mistake, handled with the same care, Koji is better than Papelbon. No ifs or buts about it.

[User Name]

When you lost Carson Smith, you lost a big time power arm. Something big league, World Series contending teams need nowadays. This has caused Uehara to be exposed and is going to push Tazawa to his breaking point again. You need both a quality starter and at least a reliable setup guy.

 

In a nutshell, yes. With Erod coming back, if he's effective, they may need the reliever even more than the starter.

[TedWilliams101]

Did Koji steal your lunch money when you were a kid? You're consistently hanging on Papelbon's balls and how awesome he is, yet he has to be treated with pretty much the same care Uehara is. The main difference is that, as a closer, he can be deployed much more carefully than Koji is right now as a set up man, so he's being exposed. And make no mistake, handled with the same care, Koji is better than Papelbon. No ifs or buts about it.

 

I have loved Uehara, but no way is/was he EVER better than Papelbon. What's worrisome about Uehara is his age and the fact that if his location is off, he is royally screwed, especially if he's throwing high, become's he doesn't have a good FB. When he is off, it's batting practice.

 

Paps was the greatest closer in Red Sox history by a country mile. Best closer in history after Mo and it's not even an argument, owns a 1.00 ERA in the playoffs over 27 innings. I love Uehara, but come on.

Edited May 29, 2016 by TedWilliams101

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

What's more surprising, Kimbrel's ERA or Price's?

[mvp 78]

Price's ERA has been steadily decreasing over the last month. Kimbrel's ERA went up by a run after a rough outing. Neither is that surprising at this point. What are your thoughts?

[Maxbialystock]

My thoughts are as follows. During the John Henry era, which by and large has been hugely successful, the Sox leadership have demonstrated a pronounced inability to develop good pitching. In the rare instances when they succeed, they too often let them go to other teams or ruin one of them by moving him from the bullpen. Remember that popular commercial about how Bo Jackson knew baseball, football, tennis, etc but didn't know diddley? Well, that's the Sox front office and overall system--they don't know pitching.

[User Name]

I have loved Uehara, but no way is/was he EVER better than Papelbon. What's worrisome about Uehara is his age and the fact that if his location is off, he is royally screwed, especially if he's throwing high, become's he doesn't have a good FB. When he is off, it's batting practice.

 

Paps was the greatest closer in Red Sox history by a country mile. Best closer in history after Mo and it's not even an argument, owns a 1.00 ERA in the playoffs over 27 innings. I love Uehara, but come on.

 

Are you serious? Over the last several seasons Uehara has bested Papelbon in essentially every statistical category. Can you please at least check the statistics and not come up with the "oh, he's the greatest in Sox history"? ********. That Papelbon is long gone. The current model is good, but nowhere near as dominant or consistent as he was in his heyday. Please inform yourself before jumping onto the conversation, or go back to your typical pattern of only posting to whine about the Red Sox.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

Price's ERA has been steadily decreasing over the last month. Kimbrel's ERA went up by a run after a rough outing. Neither is that surprising at this point. What are your thoughts?

 

I'm more surprised by Price's because as you have pointed out, a reliever's ERA can fluctuate pretty wild this early in the season from a bad outing or two.

[Station 13]

I wouldn't want the Papelbon that pitch for the Phillies/Natinals in the last 2 year. Ewwww. He isn't even the best closer in the game since he chase after money to Philadelphia.

 

The bullpen is not an issue unless Farrell f***ed s*** up like yesterday again. Layne pitching the 8th? WTF is wrong with the manager? That was Ross job, maybe to finish the game with 2 inning. Ross has not pitch in 8 days. Then he burnt through Tazawa and Kimbrel because Layne could not get it done. Now today he has neither his set up and closer. Way to throw off the entire system because of s***** game managing.

[User Name]

How dare you! Farrell is perfect and his moves are not to be questioned by us fans and our lack of insider knowledge! Just you wait so you can feel the wrath of Max!

[bosoxmal]

It's time that somebody in the FO should recognize that getting a player from the NL is not like getting an AL player. This has been evident for a long time.

[TedWilliams101]

Are you serious? Over the last several seasons Uehara has bested Papelbon in essentially every statistical category. Can you please at least check the statistics and not come up with the "oh, he's the greatest in Sox history"? ********. That Papelbon is long gone. The current model is good, but nowhere near as dominant or consistent as he was in his heyday. Please inform yourself before jumping onto the conversation, or go back to your typical pattern of only posting to whine about the Red Sox.

 

[TABLE=width: 538]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Uehara[/TD]

[TD]vs Papelbon[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD] ERA[/TD]

[TD] ERA[/TD]

[TD]Saves[/TD]

[TD] Saves[/TD]

[TD] Whip[/TD]

[TD] Whip[/TD]

[TD] HR/9 [/TD]

[TD] HR/9[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2013[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.09[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2.92[/TD]

[TD=align: right]21[/TD]

[TD=align: right]29[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.565[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.135[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.6[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.9[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2014[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2.52[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2.04[/TD]

[TD=align: right]26[/TD]

[TD=align: right]39[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.917[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.905[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.4[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.3[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2015[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2.23[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2.13[/TD]

[TD=align: right]25[/TD]

[TD=align: right]24[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.917[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.026[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.7[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2016[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.26[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2.89[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]13[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.053[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.286[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.9[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.5[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

And career save conversion percentage: Uehara - 86.0%, Papelbon - 88.3%

 

Uehara certainly had one of the greatest seasons in '13 and has been dominant... but lets not pretend he was much more dominant that Papelbon. I didn't post the K/BB because it's so obvious, it's the one fairly significant edge that Uehara has (but does show up in the WHIP). But results based, Paps has been just as good or better than Uehara from '14 to today.

 

As for their prime, Papelbon's stretch from '06 to '09 was definitely more dominant. 1.74 ERA, 151 saves to 17 BS, 90% conversion, 0.92 WHIP. Plus you have to consider that Papelbon has really only had one sub-par season in more than 10 years and he didn't fall apart when he left Boston

[Spudboy]

It's time that somebody in the FO should recognize that getting a player from the NL is not like getting an AL player. This has been evident for a long time.

 

I don't understand this post. Care to elaborate?

[User Name]

[TABLE=width: 538]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Uehara[/TD]

[TD]vs Papelbon[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD] ERA[/TD]

[TD] ERA[/TD]

[TD]Saves[/TD]

[TD] Saves[/TD]

[TD] Whip[/TD]

[TD] Whip[/TD]

[TD] HR/9 [/TD]

[TD] HR/9[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2013[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.09[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2.92[/TD]

[TD=align: right]21[/TD]

[TD=align: right]29[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.565[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.135[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.6[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.9[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2014[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2.52[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2.04[/TD]

[TD=align: right]26[/TD]

[TD=align: right]39[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.917[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.905[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.4[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.3[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2015[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2.23[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2.13[/TD]

[TD=align: right]25[/TD]

[TD=align: right]24[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.917[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.026[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.7[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2016[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.26[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2.89[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]13[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.053[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.286[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.9[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.5[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

And career save conversion percentage: Uehara - 86.0%, Papelbon - 88.3%

 

Uehara certainly had one of the greatest seasons in '13 and has been dominant... but lets not pretend he was much more dominant that Papelbon. I didn't post the K/BB because it's so obvious, it's the one fairly significant edge that Uehara has (but does show up in the WHIP). But results based, Paps has been just as good or better than Uehara from '14 to today.

 

As for their prime, Papelbon's stretch from '06 to '09 was definitely more dominant. 1.74 ERA, 151 saves to 17 BS, 90% conversion, 0.92 WHIP. Plus you have to consider that Papelbon has really only had one sub-par season in more than 10 years and he didn't fall apart when he left Boston

 

So the fact that Uehara is worlds better than Papelbon at preventing baserunners and runs over a four-year period does not mean he was better? And let's just ignore the enormous WHIP/K% advantage because it doesn't suit your argument. Also, if you want to discount Uehara's best year as an outlier, you have to discount Papelbon's best year as well. Solid use of logic there, Plato.

 

Also, over his prime, Papelbon was arguably the best closer in baseball. But we're not comparing prime Papelbon to Uehara, we are comparing their present-day versions, a point which I clearly outlined above. Stick to the point.

[User Name]

Last 4 years Uehara: 199 ERA+, 11.4 K/9, 0.79 (!) WHIP, 2.09 ERA, 7.84 K/BB, 2.41 FIP

 

Last 4 years Papelbon: 161 ERA+, 8.1 K/9, 1.043 WHIP, 2.40 ERA, 4.40 K/BB, 3.10 FIP.

 

Uehara has been a better reliever by any conceivable measure other than sv% (which can be influenced by a number of factors, by the way). Please Talksox, remove Papelbon's balls from your collective face. He's good, he's durable, but he's not the elite reliever he used to be.

[TedWilliams101]

Last 4 years Uehara: 199 ERA+, 11.4 K/9, 0.79 (!) WHIP, 2.09 ERA, 7.84 K/BB, 2.41 FIP

 

Last 4 years Papelbon: 161 ERA+, 8.1 K/9, 1.043 WHIP, 2.40 ERA, 4.40 K/BB, 3.10 FIP.

 

Uehara has been a better reliever by any conceivable measure other than sv% (which can be influenced by a number of factors, by the way). Please Talksox, remove Papelbon's balls from your collective face. He's good, he's durable, but he's not the elite reliever he used to be.

 

The reason I broke it down year by year is because Koji's 13 historic seasons skews the overall stats. I'm not saying throw that year out, but for every other year (3+) Paps has been just as good. And we WERE talking about all-time, which is why I mentioned PApelbons early years.

[iortiz]

Seriously man, stop it. Your hate for Papelbon is getting ridiculous.

[mvp 78]

I'm more surprised by Price's because as you have pointed out, a reliever's ERA can fluctuate pretty wild this early in the season from a bad outing or two.

 

I'm not surprised that Price struggled out of the gate. He's not used to the pressures of Boston and I think most pitchers struggle when switching teams due to unfamiliarity with the catching staff. If Vazquez was on the opening day roster, I be Price's numbers would look much better.