Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[User Name]

Not buying that.

 

IMO, the Sox were not willing to part with Clay without another viable, reasonably priced pitcher available.

 

It is my belief that they had no better option without paying through the nose for someone.

 

They had that pitcher, his name is Wade Miley. They offered Buchholz for Smith/Elias, Mariners said "lol no".

[Spudboy]

Clay is not living up to his option as of now, but no one is going to convince me that picking up his option was not the right move. The same goes for extending Porcello.

 

Really? You don't say!

[Kimmi]

MVP and UN, I have not seen anything that said that the Sox offered Buchholz to the Mariners and the Mariners said no.

[Kimmi]

Really? You don't say!

 

It was a no brainer.

[a700hitter]

It was reported that Seattle didn't want him...

You lie!

[a700hitter]

They wouldn't have traded Clay until they acquired another starter. I'm sure they looked into acquiring one, and deemed the cost too high. Again, having Clay allowed them the luxury of not having to overpay for another starter.

I can't see how having Clay Buchholz for his usual half season is a luxury in any sense. DD made a mistake not getting another starter, It is as simple as that.

[Kimmi]

I can't see how having Clay Buchholz for his usual half season is a luxury in any sense. DD made a mistake not getting another starter, It is as simple as that.

 

It kept the Sox from overpaying for another starter who likely wouldn't have been as good as Buchholz is when he's Good Buchholz. Again, the injury to Rodriguez threw a kink in the plans too.

[a700hitter]

It kept the Sox from overpaying for another starter who likely wouldn't have been as good as Buchholz is when he's Good Buchholz. Again, the injury to Rodriguez threw a kink in the plans too.

I am just not following your logic.

[Bellhorn04]

It was reported that Seattle didn't want him...

 

Or maybe it was more the case that they preferred Miley...I mean, how exact is our information on this?

[Bellhorn04]

I am just not following your logic.

 

I see what she's saying, which is that they signed Buchholz, then tried to swing a trade of prospects for a #2 type starter but found the price too high, so they kept Buch. If they had swung the trade they would have traded him.

[a700hitter]

I see what she's saying, which is that they signed Buchholz, then tried to swing a trade of prospects for a #2 type starter but found the price too high, so they kept Buch. If they had swung the trade they would have traded him.

And that is a luxury?

[User Name]

Or maybe it was more the case that they preferred Miley...I mean, how exact is our information on this?

 

Of course they preferred Miley. Wouldn't you?

[a700hitter]

Of course they preferred Miley. Wouldn't you?

I would prefer a bag of donuts.

[Bellhorn04]

Of course they preferred Miley. Wouldn't you?

 

Preferring Miley over Buchholz is not the same as having no interest in Buchholz.

[a700hitter]

Preferring Miley over Buchholz is not the same as having no interest in Buchholz.

But preferring a bag of donuts is the same as having no interest in him.

[User Name]

Preferring Miley over Buchholz is not the same as having no interest in Buchholz.

 

If they had interest in Buchholz, he would be a Mariner.

[a700hitter]

If they had any interest at all in Buchholz, he would be a Mariner.

Corrected ^

[Bellhorn04]

If they had interest in Buchholz, he would be a Mariner.

 

You don't know that. Buchholz had a higher WAR last year. Miley is cheaper with more years of control. Doesn't make him the better pitcher.

[User Name]

You don't know that. Buchholz had a higher WAR last year. Miley is cheaper with more years of control. Doesn't make him the better pitcher.

 

But Miley averages 198 IP since he became a full-time starter. What's that I hear? Is that the sound of the Mariners laughing over the phone and telling the Sox they don't want a half-season starter? Sure sounds like it.

[Bellhorn04]

But Miley averages 198 IP since he became a full-time starter. What's that I hear? Is that the sound of the Mariners laughing over the phone and telling the Sox they don't want a half-season starter? Sure sounds like it.

 

You have a vivid imagination. Whether you go by FanGraphs or B-R, Buchholz put up a higher WAR in less innings last year. That's a simple and indisputable fact.

[User Name]

You have a vivid imagination. Whether you go by FanGraphs or B-R, Buchholz put up a higher WAR in less innings last year. That's a simple and indisputable fact.

 

It's also a simple and indisputable fact that WAR isn't the be-all end-all in valuations, especially in real life. Wanna know why? Because an ace in run-prevention for 120 innings means more often than not, a sub-standard pitcher covering for the rest of the IP that pitcher fails to provide. You can't see value in a vacuum when a player does not provide full-time production.

 

Again, if the Mariners had the choice between Buch and Miley (this is provable fact, as it was reported everywhere) why didn't they just go for the higher WAR guy? Because roster construction doesn't work like that.

[Spudboy]

I am just not following your logic.

 

Me either.

 

But I am an old timer.

[Dojji]

UN is exactly right. I'd rather have a steady guy who isn't the best, than a peaks-and-valleys guy who you can't even count on to be there all year. Buchholz is exactly the kind of pitcher I hate to have on a team. He's maddeningly inconsistent, so you can't just dismiss the possibility that he's going to be great, but you'd be an idiot to count on it. His existence always puts one rotation spot in limbo in the offseason -- you know you're going to need to cover at least some of the innings you should be able to count on that starter to pitch, but he's there so you can't bring in a pro to do it.

 

A better calculation of WAR in the case of a guy like Buchholz would be to calculate the value of his production, then add all the innings he didn't pitch that an average starter would have pitched (the difference between whatever he gives you and 180 innings) as exactly replacement level production. Because however much of the season he doesn't pitch, a scrub is probably pitching those innings.

[harmony]

I suspect Seattle preferred Wade Miley over Clay Buchholz because the lefthander is younger, more durable, less expensive and under team control for more years.

 

For what it's worth, over the four seasons from 2012 to 2015 Miley posted 10.0 fWAR and 8.1 bWAR while Buchholz posted 8.3 fWAR and 6.3 bWAR.

 

If the Mariners had a choice between Miley and Buchholz, the decision was a no-brainer.

[Bellhorn04]

A better calculation of WAR in the case of a guy like Buchholz would be to calculate the value of his production, then add all the innings he didn't pitch that an average starter would have pitched (the difference between whatever he gives you and 180 innings) as exactly replacement level production. Because however much of the season he doesn't pitch, a scrub is probably pitching those innings.

 

I agree 100%. But that still leaves you with a WAR of 3.2 or 2.7 for Buchholz's slot in 2015. You just add 0.0 to his number.

[Bellhorn04]

I suspect Seattle preferred Wade Miley over Clay Buchholz because the lefthander is younger, more durable, less expensive and under team control for more years.

 

For what it's worth, over the four seasons from 2012 to 2015 Miley posted 10.0 fWAR and 8.1 bWAR while Buchholz posted 8.3 fWAR and 6.3 bWAR.

 

If the Mariners had a choice between Miley and Buchholz, the decision was a no-brainer.

 

For what it's worth, over the three seasons from 2013 to 2015 Miley posted 5.9 fWAR and 4.6 bWAR while Buchholz posted 7.5 fWAR and 5.4 bWAR.

 

I agree with your other points. Miley had significant advantages other than the quality of his pitching.

[User Name]

You should agree with UN's points, since he's the one who brought them up first. (Not a knock on Dojji or harmony, but it's a "challenge accepted" type debate between ol' Bell and myself)

[harmony]

Clay Buchholz is the Mercedes-Benz S-Class that is in the shop half the time while Wade Miley is a Toyota Camry that requires only routine maintenance.

 

http://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability/most-and-least-reliable-cars-by-class/

 

If given the choice, the Seattle Mariners chose the Camry.

Edited May 27, 2016 by harmony

[Emp9]

Clay Buchholz is the Mercedes-Benz S-Class that is in the shop half the time while Wade Miley is a Toyota Camry that requires only routine maintenance.

 

If given the choice, the Seattle Mariners chose the Camry.

 

Meanwhile no one gets laid in a Camery.

[Dojji]

No one gets laid in a car that's in the shop either.