A Realistic View at 2016

[SoxnCycles]

I have never been a fan of large contracts. I was against this contract from the get go, though I really liked the idea of having Price on my team. He really looked like as close to a sure thing as you can get, at least for the early years of the contract.

 

I guess what I'm trying to say is, although these huge contracts are rarely a good idea, I really can't fault Dombrowski for signing Price. It was an overpay, but Price should have been a huge upgrade. Dombrowski cannot control what happens on the field.

 

Along the same philosophy of large contracts, Encarnacion should not be signed unless he will agree to 3 years max.

 

Consistent opinions, as always.

[mvp 78]

@evandrelich On the bright side, Red Sox pitchers have fourth best AL ERA from July 25 on, 3.38.

[Kimmi]

Completely agree on Price. If he was even close to what he should be no-one would be calling for Farrell's job and we would be calling this latest road trip a success. I see lots of excuses being made for Price, he pitched good in some games, his defense/bullpen let him down, but if he was pitching the way he should noone would have to make excuses. I fully expected the contract would look bad in the last few years and I was unsure what he would do in the postseason, but I never thought he would be this bad during his first season.

 

I agree with this post 100%.

[Slasher9]

I have never been a fan of large contracts. I was against this contract from the get go, though I really liked the idea of having Price on my team. He really looked like as close to a sure thing as you can get, at least for the early years of the contract.

 

I guess what I'm trying to say is, although these huge contracts are rarely a good idea, I really can't fault Dombrowski for signing Price. It was an overpay, but Price should have been a huge upgrade. Dombrowski cannot control what happens on the field.

 

Along the same philosophy of large contracts, Encarnacion should not be signed unless he will agree to 3 years max.

 

i do wonder if DD expected Price to pitch well enough at the front end of this contract that Price would "opt out" at the 3 year mark.

[Kimmi]

Consistent opinions, as always.

 

Thank you. I'm not a big fan of Dombrowski's 'sense of urgency' philosophy, but the players that he added to this team should have all improved the team. Whether they perform up to expectations or not is beyond his control.

[Kimmi]

i do wonder if DD expected Price to pitch well enough at the front end of this contract that Price would "opt out" at the 3 year mark.

 

I think that that was the expectation.

[SoxnCycles]

i do wonder if DD expected Price to pitch well enough at the front end of this contract that Price would "opt out" at the 3 year mark.

 

The opt-out was about the only thing I liked about that contract.

I'm hoping he pitches well enough the next two seasons to do just that, hit the road.

[greenwell]

The opt-out was about the only thing I liked about that contract.

I'm hoping he pitches well enough the next two seasons to do just that, hit the road.

 

I have never understood this opinion and have yet to hear a good answer to this.

 

Unless it's about Price pitching better because he has the opt out clause, this clause does nothing good for the red sox. If Price opts out that means that he can get a better contract on the market than what is remaining on his sox contract (or at least he thinks he can).

If this is true that means the redsox could at a minimum put him on waivers and someone else would take over the contract, or more likely they could trade him, get out of the contract and get something else in return.

[Bellhorn04]

I have never understood this opinion and have yet to hear a good answer to this.

 

Unless it's about Price pitching better because he has the opt out clause, this clause does nothing good for the red sox. If Price opts out that means that he can get a better contract on the market than what is remaining on his sox contract (or at least he thinks he can).

If this is true that means the redsox could at a minimum put him on waivers and someone else would take over the contract, or more likely they could trade him, get out of the contract and get something else in return.

 

Put it this way - in retrospect, the Yankees would have been far better off letting Sabathia opt out. It would have made that contract a good deal for them.

[SoxnCycles]

I have never understood this opinion and have yet to hear a good answer to this.

 

Unless it's about Price pitching better because he has the opt out clause, this clause does nothing good for the red sox. If Price opts out that means that he can get a better contract on the market than what is remaining on his sox contract (or at least he thinks he can).

If this is true that means the redsox could at a minimum put him on waivers and someone else would take over the contract, or more likely they could trade him, get out of the contract and get something else in return.

 

I think Price would have to pitch quite bit beyond the worth of his contract to entice another team to take over his contract with a waiver deal or trade. I guess that's possible, but not likely.

 

Price could pitch somewhat better than he is now for him (and his agent) to believe a better deal is waiting after opting out.

 

Who knows, he could continue so embarrass himself so badly that he can't wait to opt out of Boston.

[moonslav59]

Step back and take a couple of deep breaths. Price had a bad outing after a couple of good ones where there was little support. I never like long and expensive deals for older players and our history of late and really that of the Yankees shows the folly of them. Still, it is what it is and we will need to live with Price and he should give us some good games along the way. Meanwhile we need to get our offense going.

 

Betts, Bogey, Bradley, Pedey, Ortiz still are stalwarts for this year and need to be energized. Shaw is not so bad and has some upside and Beni is promising. Leon has helped us a lot as well and the pitching is fairly sound for this year. Hill has been a decent sub as well as Holt. All is not lost, but our road trip was not a good one and maybe home cooking will get us straightened out and some good wins.

 

If you are thinking of next year, with Ortiz gone we still have many elements of a good team. Moncada should be available late this season and get a chance to show his worth. The hope is that Vasquez or Swihart can handle the second catcher role which leaves us with the need for a DH and additional pitching. Encarnacion is tempting but again he is an older player who will demand a high dollar long term contract. I am not sold on Hanley doing the job so maybe we can find a less vaunted player who can do the job and also play in the field if necessary.

 

Possibly we will develop a SP and/or RP's internally leaving us with some trade bait to fill positions where our hopes don't turn into realities.

 

Thanks oldtimer. I good night's sleep helped too.

 

I was just otally bummed out last night.

 

Thanks.

[moonslav59]

Completely agree on Price. If he was even close to what he should be no-one would be calling for Farrell's job and we would be calling this latest road trip a success. I see lots of excuses being made for Price, he pitched good in some games, his defense/bullpen let him down, but if he was pitching the way he should noone would have to make excuses. I fully expected the contract would look bad in the last few years and I was unsure what he would do in the postseason, but I never thought he would be this bad during his first season.

 

This happens far too often in the first or second years of these massive deals.

 

Like Kimmi, I was against this deal but felt like if we were ever going to do another big contract, Price was about as "safe" as you could get on a SP'er due to his age, his recent success and his mechanics.

[S5Dewey]

The opt-out was about the only thing I liked about that contract.

I'm hoping he pitches well enough the next two seasons to do just that, hit the road.

 

Will someone please point out the fallacy in my thinking:

 

If Price DOESN'T pitch well he's not going to opt out because he's got a good thing going. He's guaranteed to get paid $30M for pitching poorly.

 

If Price DOES pitch well he opts out and the Sox get the "opportunity" to lose a pitcher who's pitching well and go and take a gamble on someone else, probably at even more money.

 

How is this a good spot for the Sox to be in?

[moonslav59]

we keep thinking these big FA signings will save us, and then we bang our heads on the wall when they fail. We blame the GM. We blame the manager.

 

Look around. Just about none of these big deals ever work as hoped, but yet we think the next one will.

 

Encarnacion will not sign for 3 years. He's the best FA on the market next to maybe Cespedes, so he's going long and large.

 

I'm done with these false hopes. Let's stick with the kids and plug holes with mid-tier FAs like we did with Vic and Napoli[ a few years back. Low risk- low years- high money.

Edited August 8, 2016 by moonslav59

[greenwell]

I think Price would have to pitch quite bit beyond the worth of his contract to entice another team to take over his contract with a waiver deal or trade. I guess that's possible, but not likely.

 

Price could pitch somewhat better than he is now for him (and his agent) to believe a better deal is waiting after opting out.

 

Who knows, he could continue so embarrass himself so badly that he can't wait to opt out of Boston.

 

So you're saying it's basically about Price and his agent possibly misreading the market and thinking someone would give him a better contract? Because obviously if someone would give him a better(for Price) contract they would also pick him up off waivers since that contract is better for the team.

The third point is a possibility.

[a700hitter]

we keep thinking these big FA signings will save us, and then we bang our heads on the wall when they fail. We blame the GM. We blame the manager.

 

Look around. Just about none of these big deals ever work as hoped, but yet we think the next one will.

 

Encarnacion will not sign for 3 years. He's the best FA on the market next to maybe Cespedes, so he's going long and large.

 

I'm done with these false hopes. Let's stick with the kids and plug holes with mid-tier FAs like we did with Vic and Napoli[ a few years back. Low risk- low years- high money./B]

The problem is that this organization has a terrible track record for producing pitchers. If we can't grow them, we have to go get them. If the one's we get don't work out, they will have to keep trying. It is the Boston Red Sox. They have a big payroll. You can't field an entire team of home grown kids. That would result in a generation of 4th place finishes.

[moonslav59]

Will someone please point out the fallacy in my thinking:

 

If Price DOESN'T pitch well he's not going to opt out because he's got a good thing going. He's guaranteed to get paid $30M for pitching poorly.

 

If Price DOES pitch well he opts out and the Sox get the "opportunity" to lose a pitcher who's pitching well and go and take a gamble on someone else, probably at even more money.

 

How is this a good spot for the Sox to be in?

 

I pointed this out at the singing, but apparently that clause was what Price demanded, and that's how we landed him.

[S5Dewey]

The problem is that this organization has a terrible track record for producing pitchers. If we can't grow them, we have to go get them. If the one's we get don't work out, they will have to keep trying. It is the Boston Red Sox. They have a big payroll. You can't field an entire team of home grown kids. That would result in a generation of 4th place finishes.

 

True enough. But our problem isn't position players. We've got position players up the ying-yang. Three OF's signed at cheap money, Shaw (?) Bogaerts, Pedey and Hanley with Hanley being the only big $$ guy, and at least three cheap catchers.

What we need is Pitching, and in a more perfect world the Sox would have lots of money to spend on Pitching. The fly in that ointment is that we have The Fat Man, Castillo, and Craig who are eating up our pitching money and not contributing.

 

I know this doesn't solve anything - it's just me voicing my frustration.

[S5Dewey]

I pointed this out at the singing, but apparently that clause was what Price demanded, and that's how we landed him.

 

Thank you. I guess I'm not going crazy then.

 

I'm sorry DD, but that's just stupid.

[moonslav59]

The problem is that this organization has a terrible track record for producing pitchers. If we can't grow them, we have to go get them. If the one's we get don't work out, they will have to keep trying. It is the Boston Red Sox. They have a big payroll. You can't field an entire team of home grown kids. That would result in a generation of 4th place finishes.

 

You make a good point, but we've changed GMs twice, scouting directors and more over the years, so maybe we shouldn't give up on guys like Espi and Logan Allen just because past system pitchers have failed.

 

We also seem to do better in trades than FA SP'er signings, but that was more under the old regimes (Pedro, Schill...)

[moonslav59]

Thank you. I guess I'm not going crazy then.

 

I'm sorry DD, but that's just stupid.

 

I think Zimmerman just went on the DL, so Price, Greinke and Zimm have all struggled or gotten hurt.

 

Is Cueto, the one with the "poor mechanics", the only one doing totally well his first year as a signed FA?

[Bellhorn04]

Will someone please point out the fallacy in my thinking:

 

If Price DOESN'T pitch well he's not going to opt out because he's got a good thing going. He's guaranteed to get paid $30M for pitching poorly.

 

If Price DOES pitch well he opts out and the Sox get the "opportunity" to lose a pitcher who's pitching well and go and take a gamble on someone else, probably at even more money.

 

How is this a good spot for the Sox to be in?

 

There is a fairly obvious scenario where the Sox win:

 

Price pitches well from here to end of Year 3, opts out, signs elsewhere for big money, then flops. We therefore get 3 good years and someone else pays the freight on the bad years.

 

Like I said earlier, just look at what happened on the opt-out with Sabathia. The Yanks would have been better off letting him exercise it - which he would have if they didn't bend over and give him a further 2 years.

[moonslav59]

There is a fairly obvious scenario where the Sox win:

 

Price pitches well from here to end of Year 3, opts out, signs elsewhere for big money, then flops. We therefore get 3 good years and someone else pays the freight on the bad years.

 

Like I said earlier, just look at what happened on the opt-out with Sabathia. The Yanks would have been better off letting him exercise it - which he would have if they didn't bend over and give him a further 2 years.

 

Price has to "pitch well" for this to happen. Therein lies the concern.

[greenwell]

There is a fairly obvious scenario where the Sox win:

 

Price pitches well from here to end of Year 3, opts out, signs elsewhere for big money, then flops. We therefore get 3 good years and someone else pays the freight on the bad years.

 

Like I said earlier, just look at what happened on the opt-out with Sabathia. The Yanks would have been better off letting him exercise it - which he would have if they didn't bend over and give him a further 2 years.

 

This is missing the point. It's not about what could happen to make it a win for the Sox, it's about the fact that if he does opt out that means there was a pretty good chance the sox could have gotten rid of him without the opt out clause.

[Bellhorn04]

Price has to "pitch well" for this to happen. Therein lies the concern.

 

Yep.

[Bellhorn04]

This is missing the point. It's not about what could happen to make it a win for the Sox, it's about the fact that if he does opt out that means there was a pretty good chance the sox could have gotten rid of him without the opt out clause.

 

It's not missing the point of the post I was responding to.

[Slasher9]

Will someone please point out the fallacy in my thinking:

 

If Price DOESN'T pitch well he's not going to opt out because he's got a good thing going. He's guaranteed to get paid $30M for pitching poorly.

 

If Price DOES pitch well he opts out and the Sox get the "opportunity" to lose a pitcher who's pitching well and go and take a gamble on someone else, probably at even more money.

 

How is this a good spot for the Sox to be in?

 

your thinking is correct. if he stinks it up he will cash boston checks for the next 6.5 years.

i cant speak for everyone but if he turns it around and pitches like an ace the next 3 seasons and we win it all in one (or more) of them i am happy with him opting out. my thinking would be the backend of that contract is going to be a disaster as he enters his mid 30's and beyond.

[Slasher9]

I think Zimmerman just went on the DL, so Price, Greinke and Zimm have all struggled or gotten hurt.

 

Is Cueto, the one with the "poor mechanics", the only one doing totally well his first year as a signed FA?

 

he is the one i was begging the sox to go out and sign....sigh.

[Bellhorn04]

And Scherzer has pitched very well in Years 1 and 2 of his deal...as has Lester.

[SoxnCycles]

Will someone please point out the fallacy in my thinking:

 

If Price DOESN'T pitch well he's not going to opt out because he's got a good thing going. He's guaranteed to get paid $30M for pitching poorly.

 

If Price DOES pitch well he opts out and the Sox get the "opportunity" to lose a pitcher who's pitching well and go and take a gamble on someone else, probably at even more money.

 

How is this a good spot for the Sox to be in?

 

There's a whole range of performance possiblities between "I suck, so this is a great deal for me" and I'm awesome and the Sox are fools for letting me go".

 

It's entirely possible that Price feels he'd be better off out of Boston in three years.