A Realistic View at 2016

[Eddy Ballgame]

They do have a thing called practice before and after games.

 

I admit it's not an ideal set-up, but playing an inferior fielder isn't ideal either. Having an A+ bat at AAA while we struggle offensively on the big club is not ideal either. Trading Moncada would piss me off to no end.

 

Yes, the ideal is Moncada learns to field well enough to be our FT 3Bman next year. This whole scenario is based on what if he's not.

 

If he's not, then he'll be in Pawtucket. DH won't be an option. Again, the mindset it takes to DH is very different. Of course he could do it, but they won't take the risk, not with his talent.

[Redrojo]

Report: MLB investigating whether Padres were forthright with medical info in Drew Pomeranz trade

 

By Tim Britton

Journal Sports Writer

Posted Aug 5, 2016 at 9:13 PM

 

LOS ANGELES -- On Friday, a report from ESPN said Major League Baseball was investigating whether the Padres disclosed all the relevant medical information in a pair of July trades, including the one that sent Pomeranz to Boston. The report stated that the Sox have since "become aware of medical information that they believe was not properly disclosed during trade talks."

 

President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski declined comment on the matter Friday. Farrell said Boston's understanding of Pomeranz's medicals has "given some guidance on how to use him inside of a game."

[bowman]

If it's something serious, I would hope a harsh penalty would be coming. If it was the Patriots, they would have to suspend people, and give up players.

[moonslav59]

Give us Espi back and allow us to keep Pomeraanz might be a good punishment.

 

[Jasonbay44]

Or just re-do the trade, because I'm not really digging Pom.. and then we can use Espinoza for a better starter in off-season.

[moonslav59]

Or just re-do the trade, because I'm not really digging Pom.. and then we can use Espinoza for a better starter in off-season.

 

Bigger package--better SP'er.

 

That's what I'd prefer, in theory.

[Jasonbay44]

Bigger package--better SP'er.

 

That's what I'd prefer, in theory.

That's what I meant, use Espinoza in a package for a Sale type.

 

Either way, we aren't getting a re-do on this trade so it doesn't matter I suppose lol.

[d-money]

The fair thing would be to give us their draft picks. Sneaky bastards

[moonslav59]

The fair thing would be to give us their draft picks. Sneaky bastards

 

Yeah, Like their first pick next spring. It may be a doozie.

[moonslav59]

Sox WAR

 

17.2 Cubs

16.0 Dodgers

15.3 Red Sox

15.1 Nats

14.9 Guardians

14.5 Blue Jays

13.5 Giants & Astros

13.3 Orioles

13.0 Cardinals

 

Offense

8.8 Red Sox

8.8 Cubs

8.7 Jays

7.7 Dodgers

7.6 Orioles

7.3 Guardians

7.1 Giants & Pirates

7.0 Nats

 

Pitching

8.8 Cubs

8.3 Dodgers (thanks mainly to Kershaw)

8.1 Nats

7.6 Guardians

7.2 Mets

6.9 Astros

6.8 Yanks

6.5 Red Sox, White Sox & Cards

 

SP'ing: the Sox place 11th at 5.2.

RP'ing: the sox place 10th at 1.3.

 

By position:

C: 17th at 0.6

1B: 11th at 0.7

2B: 2nd at 1.3

3B: 16th at 0.7

SS: 4th at 1.3

LF: 10th at 0.6

CF: 4th at 1.2

RF: 2nd at 1.5

DH: 2nd at 1.0

 

According to WAR, our weakest positions are C, 3B and LF (no surprises). Luckily, our best young prospects and players can be slotted in those three positions (at least by next season):

 

C: Leon, Vazaquez & Swihart

3B: Moncada

LF: Beninetendi & Swihart

 

Although our pitching might only be ranked 8th, certain factors have dragged us down considerably.

1) The 7.00+ ERA from our 5 slot is the major culprit, and maybe ERod will put an end to that.

2) The injuries to Kimbrel, C Smith, Uehara and Tazawa really lowered our RP'ing ranking a lot.

3) Starters not meeting expectations.

Even with all this going on, we still look pretty good for a playoff staff, where only 3-4 good starters are needed, and deep RP'ing depth is often not a factor.

 

Out of 144 starting pitchers with 60+ IP, here's how Sox individual starters rank by WAR:

12) Price 3.3

15) Wright 3.2

27) Porcello 2.5

34) Pomeranz 2.4

 

If you go by top 30 are "aces" or "number ones", then the Sox have three number ones and a top tier number 2 as their best 4 SP'ers!

 

If you go by ERA minus:

12) Wright 68

34) Pomeranz 75

36) Porcello 78

69) Price 97

 

This shows we have an ace (Wright), two solid number 2's (Pomeranz & Porcello) and one good number 3 (Price).

 

How about WHIP?

19) Porcello

34) Pomeranz (wow, number 34 at all three criteria)

42) Wright

52) Price

 

Let's average out all three rankings:

 

AVG Rank

23) Wright: 15/12/42

27) Porcello:27/36/19

34) Pomernaz: 34/34/34

44) Price: 12/69/52

 

This shows two lower tier one slot pitchers (Wright & Porcello) , a solid number 2 slot (Pomeranz), and an average number 2 slot (Price).

 

If Kimbrel stays healthy and Uehara can come back to near 2014 form, our staff should stack up against anyone else pretty well in the playoffs.

 

 

 

 

 

[robert vonhalle]

Always bet on the athlete. He has picked up stuff quickly. Yes, the errors at 2B are a mild concern - errors are a garbage stat, but it is what it is - but he was (if not already) bound to outgrow the position.

 

But the percentages are for an athlete of his caliber to figure it all out.

 

athlete?remember hanram in left field!

[moonslav59]

athlete?remember hanram in left field!

 

Although Ellsbury was never "5 tool" due to his noodle arm, it took him a while to master his position defensively.

[moonslav59]

More on Holaday from Farrell....

 

"He is a good handler of pitchers and game calling has been a strong suit of his and has some strength in the bat," Farrell said. "A couple guys have had him as a teammate and have good reports on him."

 

On Vazquez...

 

"Defensively he is solid; offensively he still has work to be done. The adjustments and settling in, he's still working to maintain that. He's been inconsistent at times," Farrell said. "The move of Holaday is also to create additional depth."

[jacksonianmarch]

You have a Jekyll and Hyde situation at catcher, except it is two people for one position instead of two people in one person. One plays garbage D and can hit now with a projection to be all star level for the position. The other has all star level defense now with a garbage bat. You guys have a NOW team. You don't have the time to coach along Swihart, especially with his injury now. You also don't have time to have an utter black hole in the lineup. Right now, Leon is a place holder, Hanigan looks done and Holladay might be your starting catcher for awhile once Leon remembers he is Sandy Leon.

[Dojji]

 

According to WAR, our weakest positions are C, 3B and LF (no surprises). Luckily, our best young prospects and players can be slotted in those three positions (at least by next season):

 

C: Leon, Vazaquez & Swihart

3B: Moncada

LF: Beninetendi & Swihart

 

Good analysis, but you forgot that we have a starting 3B. It's not smart to write Shaw off like that. He's been quite a nice find, well above league average 3B for pennies on the dollar is more than we could have hoped for when we realized the embarrassing state Pablo was in.

 

Travis Shaw is right exactly at the level I *hoped* he'd perform at, I was hoping for between .750 and .800 OPS with tolerable defense, and he's met or exceeded that, I think both his offense and his defense are solidly above average. I do not like the idea of rushing a prospect into the majors when we have a guy getting the job done in that position, even if there is potentially room for some improvement.

 

Catcher and LF are more fluid, since we don't have bona fide starters in either position at the moment, but I think we need to see what we have from Travis Shaw -- given a couple more seasons at this performance level, Shaw would become an asset that's worth real value in trade. I feel very strongly that Moncada will find a way into the lineup no matter what, but that patience with Travis Shaw will be well rewarded.

[Dojji]

You have a Jekyll and Hyde situation at catcher, except it is two people for one position instead of two people in one person. One plays garbage D and can hit now with a projection to be all star level for the position. The other has all star level defense now with a garbage bat. You guys have a NOW team. You don't have the time to coach along Swihart, especially with his injury now. You also don't have time to have an utter black hole in the lineup. Right now, Leon is a place holder, Hanigan looks done and Holladay might be your starting catcher for awhile once Leon remembers he is Sandy Leon.

 

I have a hunch that Sandy Leon won't forget entirely how to hit. I dunno if I see an OPS of .900 in his future but I do see a guy who could avoid being a complete black hole.

[moonslav59]

According to WAR, our weakest positions are C, 3B and LF (no surprises). Luckily, our best young prospects and players can be slotted in those three positions (at least by next season):

 

C: Leon, Vazaquez & Swihart

3B: Moncada

LF: Beninetendi & Swihart

 

Good analysis, but you forgot that we have a starting 3B. It's not smart to write Shaw off like that. He's been quite a nice find, well above league average 3B for pennies on the dollar is more than we could have hoped for when we realized the embarrassing state Pablo was in.

 

I'm not writing him off, although I am not as gah gah over him as many here seem to be. I only listed C, 3b and LF, because they were the weak areas in WAR, and I was making a point about our youth matching up well with our weak links. I think Shaw's upside is maybe a .790 guy with 25 HR ability. His floor might be a career platoon player with .800-.825 numbers vs righties.

 

My plan for next year might be for Shaw to play 1B and HanRam to DH and maybe play 1B vs LHPs as Young DHs vs LHPs. Shaw would have every opportuniaty to keep a FT position on tahis team going forward, if he deserves it.

 

Travis Shaw is right exactly at the level I *hoped* he'd perform at, I was hoping for between .750 and .800 OPS with tolerable defense, and he's met or exceeded that, I think both his offense and his defense are solidly above average. I do not like the idea of rushing a prospect into the majors when we have a guy getting the job done in that position, even if there is potentially room for some improvement.

 

I'm not for rushing prospects either, but I was for getting some reps at 3B for Moncada sooner rather than later. I have also mentioned that Moncada may take longer to become even an average fielder at 3B than many might think he will. That is why I mentioned he may DH some for us neext year, assuming we don't sign Encarnacion or another DH type. If Beni struggles and Moncada stuggles to master 3B, we may even move Moncada to LF at some point.

 

There's lots of different scenarios that may play out. The Beni/Swihart LF, Moncada[//Shaw 3B, HanRam/Shaw 1B, HanRam/Young DH, Vaz/Leon/Swi C seems the most plausible to me for 2017-2018.

 

I'm not locked into any of these slots.

 

Catcher and LF are more fluid, since we don't have bona fide starters in either position at the moment, but I think we need to see what we have from Travis Shaw -- given a couple more seasons at this performance level, Shaw would become an asset that's worth real value in trade. I feel very strongly that Moncada will find a way into the lineup no matter what, but that patience with Travis Shaw will be well rewarded.

.

 

Like I said, nothing I have said so far keeps Shaw from being a FT'er, if he keeps hitting, especially vs LHPs.

 

I have been impressed by Shaw as well, and his defense has been better than expected as well.

 

[moonslav59]

I have a hunch that Sandy Leon won't forget entirely how to hit. I dunno if I see an OPS of .900 in his future but I do see a guy who could avoid being a complete black hole.

 

I'm not sure he will ever be a consistent plus on offense, but if he can just stay near average positionally, then we have our place keeper until either Vaz improves his bat or Swi improves his D.

[Nick]

Ortiz is now 6-44, Bradley 6-33, Xander 4-25......our offense is not great...our averages were built on strength of crazy April stat... Edited August 6, 2016 by Nick

[Dojji]

Slow stretches in the offense are normal. You kind of have to hope that some people heat up as others cool down.

[Dojji]

Like I said, nothing I have said so far keeps Shaw from being a FT'er, if he keeps hitting, especially vs LHPs.

 

I have been impressed by Shaw as well, and his defense has been better than expected as well.

 

 

THen I misinterpreted you, but considering the context of what I originally responded to, I do feel you should be clearer that you feel that Shaw is a potential long term option.

 

I like the depth of having a guy like Moncada in the wings for the next 2 years. I don't think there's any rush on calling him up.

[moonslav59]

Ortiz is now 6-44, Bradley 6-33, Xander 4-25......our offense is not great...our averages were built on strength of crazy April stat...

 

Come on, really?

 

Those are tiny sample sizes. All players go through slumps.

 

Besides, April wasn't even our 3rd best month on offense:

 

May 182 runs (.896 OPS)

July 140 runs (.848 OPS) July was not that long ago!

APR 126 runs (.790 OPS)

JUN 126 runs (.765 OPS)

[moonslav59]

THen I misinterpreted you, but considering the context of what I originally responded to, I do feel you should be clearer that you feel that Shaw is a potential long term option.

 

I like the depth of having a guy like Moncada in the wings for the next 2 years. I don't think there's any rush on calling him up.

 

I actually like Shaw's chances to hold a FT position through next year better than HanRam, Pablo, Travis and Young.

 

If we sign Encarnacion, then I think Shaw has three chances to play:

 

1) Beat out Moncada at 3B.

2) Beat our HanRam at 1B.

3) Shaw keeps his job at 3B as Moncada plays LF after Beni is traded in a larger package for a SP'er.

 

Those are pretty good odds.

 

I do still think he needs to show he's more than a platoon corner IF'er.

 

Without Encarnacion or another big bat addition, I think Shaw is pretty safe in getting plenty of playing time next year at 3B and 1B.

 

Edited August 6, 2016 by moonslav59

[Nick]

Sooner we learn not to 'settle', sooner we will have championship caliber team.

 

We need a big bat next year out of DH. Not a .275 hitter with 15 HR. Sandy Leon saved Sox management at the catcher's position.

 

Theo at least understands that building a team includes having kids/veterans arrive at the same time. Waiting 3 more years for Moncada's arrival is the most asinine thing I've heard of...Management has already said he's almost major league ready. Apparently everyone here should apply for the job with the Sox. You seem to have better handle on the players.

[moonslav59]

Sooner we learn not to 'settle', sooner we will have championship caliber team.

 

We need a big bat next year out of DH. Not a .275 hitter with 15 HR. Sandy Leon saved Sox management at the catcher's position.

 

Theo at least understands that building a team includes having kids/veterans arrive at the same time. Waiting 3 more years for Moncada's arrival is the most asinine thing I've heard of...Management has already said he's almost major league ready. Apparently everyone here should apply for the job with the Sox. You seem to have better handle on the players.

 

Obviously having the best DH in the league is not enough to make this team favorites, so I think this year's team has proven we need better pitching to win more consistently.

 

I'm not saying Encarnacion would not greatly improve our odds at winning- clearly it would, but how much better will this exact team do next year with Encarnacion instead of Papi.

 

We'd still need much more.

 

We have about $30M to spend next year. We need two RP'ers just to stay even with this year. We need a solid SP'er. We have two incredible prospects that one likely will be blocked, if we sign Encarnacion, Certainly we can make a trade or two to lessen the bottlenecks and blockage and maybe fill a role or two listed above, but it won't be easy.

 

I'm trying to stay optimistic, but so far I've disagreed with just about every trade and signing by DD. I'm not saying I'm better than him or that his moves won't prove to be more helpful than they have so far, but I was happy with Ben's 5 year plan (as I called it). Ben's FA signings were bad as well, and I was against almost all of his too, even the Vic signing that helped win us a ring.

 

We still have a lot of great and promising pieces on the team. Let it play out and see what happens is all we can do right now.

 

[Nick]

Obviously having the best DH in the league is not enough to make this team favorites, so I think this year's team has proven we need better pitching to win more consistently.

 

I'm not saying Encarnacion would not greatly improve our odds at winning- clearly it would, but how much better will this exact team do next year with Encarnacion instead of Papi.

 

We'd still need much more.

 

We have about $30M to spend next year. We need two RP'ers just to stay even with this year. We need a solid SP'er. We have two incredible prospects that one likely will be blocked, if we sign Encarnacion, Certainly we can make a trade or two to lessen the bottlenecks and blockage and maybe fill a role or two listed above, but it won't be easy.

 

I'm trying to stay optimistic, but so far I've disagreed with just about every trade and signing by DD. I'm not saying I'm better than him or that his moves won't prove to be more helpful than they have so far, but I was happy with Ben's 5 year plan (as I called it). Ben's FA signings were bad as well, and I was against almost all of his too, even the Vic signing that helped win us a ring.

 

We still have a lot of great and promising pieces on the team. Let it play out and see what happens is all we can do right now.

 

 

I guess we can hope that our top 5 pitchers will get better...we may see a slide from Porcello and Wright. We'll probably see improved Price and E Rod simply from won lost %. Pomeranz has been very disappointing simply because of 20 pitch innings and failure to locate. I was really looking forward to watching him but it's becoming a Dice K experience for me and he's only pitched 4 times.

 

Do you think we should take a step backward (trade away some high prospects and young players) and acquire Chris Sales?

 

With dearth of quality starting pitchers, will the Sox be just good enough to stay on the playoff fringe and frustrate us all again? I should had my teeth cleaned than to watch Sox get shutout today. And Ziegler is not coming back.

 

I'm not blaming DD but other than Ziegler, every move has backfired.....traded players are not living up to their previous hype.

Edited August 7, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I guess we can hope that our top 5 pitchers will get better...we may see a slide from Porcello and Wright. We'll probably see improved Price and E Rod simply from won lost %. Pomeranz has been very disappointing simply because of 20 pitch innings and failure to locate. I was really looking forward to watching him but it's becoming a Dice K experience for me and he's only pitched 4 times.

 

The extra years of team control were supposed to offset the loss of a great pitching prospect. Now, it looks like just another mediocre question mark with very little hope of filling the solid number 2 slot we desperately needed and still need.

 

I hate to bitch and complain and sound like a broken record, but we already traded away a lot of young talent without filling our biggest need: TOR starting pitcher.

 

Do you think we should take a step backward (trade away some high prospects and young players) and acquire Chris Sales?

 

I want Quintana more due to the extra year, but I'd love to have Sale. I just doubt I'd agree to the package it will probably take. I'd also be more likely to severely overpay, if we still had Margot, Espinoza and Guerra.

 

I'm at a loss on what to do. Maybe I'd offer and they'd take Beni, ERod and Johnson, but knowing our luck, Sale would get hurt or be a bust.

 

 

With dearth of quality starting pitchers, will the Sox be just good enough to stay on the playoff fringe and frustrate us all again? I should had my teeth cleaned than to watch Sox get shutout today.

 

I think our only hope might be that we finally guess right with the nest few FA signings and Moncada and Beni turn out to be like Betts and Bogey.

 

 

And Ziegler is not coming back. I'm not blaming DD but other than Ziegler, every move has backfired.....traded players are not living up to their previous hype.

 

Pretty sad when the only good deal, so far, has been for a rental.

[jacksonianmarch]

Your problem this year is that while the AL lacks a true elite team, it has a bunch of very good teams. What has been proven time and again is that your team isn't built to win close games. The starting pitching will give up runs. Aside from the final guy in your pen, they're suspect. You need your O to carry you and when the dog days of summer hit, some sluggishness should be expected.

[Bellhorn04]

Pretty sad when the only good deal, so far, has been for a rental.

 

That's a little harsh. None of Dombrowski's moves can be ruled busts yet either.

[oldtimer]

We'd still need much more.

 

 

 

I'm trying to stay optimistic, but so far I've disagreed with just about every trade and signing by DD. I'm not saying I'm better than him or that his moves won't prove to be more helpful than they have so far, but I was happy with Ben's 5 year plan (as I called it). Ben's FA signings were bad as well, and I was against almost all of his too, even the Vic signing that helped win us a ring

 

 

Normally I agree with your point of view but I don't agree that DD has made poor trades. I think he got the best available to fill in voids created by injuries and by some lack of performance and he had done that without giving away many of our best prospects. Getting Sale would have been nice, but the reality is that we couldn't get that deal done without an extremely high price. Neither could other teams who need a starting pitcher.

 

Looking over the past number of games, an ace would not have won us many or possible none of those games as our offense has gone into a funk. Our pitching is decent, we have offensive pieces, now we have to get them to play up to their potential. Seems that is what has been lacking of late.