A Realistic View at 2016

[cp176]

I couldn't disagree more. This is the first chance these young kids of ours have had a chance to not "come up short".

 

I've been screaming for more top quality pitching since 1970, when I started following the Sox, but trading Moncada and/or Benintendi to try to get one now, IMO is not the answer. I want the Sox to win for many years to come, so I trading our extended future away in hopes of striking it big this year is not my idea of a good idea.

 

 

I guess that I don't agree with you once again. No one wants to see any of our young prospects traded but Benintendi and Moncada don't look like Rice and Lynn to me. I'm not advocating trading them but for young established major league players, I would get that. I also do not agree with the premise that this is the first time our young players have "had a chance to come up short". I actually would prefer saying that it is their opportunity to win the fing game as opposed to finding ways to lose.

[Nick]

ANAHEIM, Calif — The Red Sox have been subtly introducing Yoan Moncada to the world outside of second base.

Red Sox general manager Mike Hazen confirmed that the organization has been working Moncada at third base prior to Portland Sea Dogs’ road games, with the picture posted from @FlattsM on Twitter from Binghamton serving as the latest example.

Hazen said the plan is to continue the pregame work at other positions other than second base, with a likelihood that the Red Sox will introduce outfield into the practice sessions in the near future.

There is still the possibility Moncada will see game action at one of the alternate positions, although if/when a permanent switch is made it will likely take place in ernest during the offseason.

With Double-A Portland, Moncada entered Friday hitting .270 with a .902 OPS.

[Nick]

Boston Herald;

 

The Red Sox have to wonder how they’ll do when Sandy Leon inevitably comes back to earth. He entered last night with four hits in his last 19 at-bats, but was still carrying a .386 average. Can Leon and Ryan Hanigan handle the load down the stretch?

 

Christian Vazquez’ offense has been subpar and he’s now at Triple-A Pawtucket. But, in a postseason setting, a grip on the pitching staff is most important, and Vazquez is capable there if needed.

 

“Pretty good,” Hazen said of the team’s catching situation. “I think the way Sandy’s played, being able to hit from both sides of the plate is a definite advantage. You know, (Hanigan’s) been solid. And we have (Vazquez) too, and hopefully getting (Blake) Swihart back at some point. I think we feel pretty good from a depth standpoint.”

It appears Swihart and catching still may have a future.

[Maxbialystock]

My realistic view of the Sox right now, July 30, is that now is not the time to make a big trade to improve the rotation as was done o/a August 1, 2013. Why? Because the rotation right now is not that bad: Porcello and Price are both pretty solid; Pomeranz just might be as good as indicated at San Diego this year; Wright can be very good when his knuckler is working; ERod was good last year and could be that way again this year.

 

But also because this is a pretty talented lineup which, however, lacks experience. I think the Sox can get to the playoffs as currently configured--and assuming the bullpen DL's return in good order--but maybe lacks the maturity to win in the postseason. The Angels (Sciosia, actually) showed us how to deal with Ortiz in game 1 Thursday night--when in doubt, walk him. Detroit should have done that in the ALCS in 2013, and you can bet it will happen this postseason. Everyone else in the lineup is up and own like a yo-yo. Collectively, they have scored a lot of runs and will score a lot more, but collectively they right now are vulnerable to good pitching, not just great pitching. And right now I would define good pitching as anyone with good breaking balls (curve, slider, changeup, knuckle curve, whatever) that is in or close to the strike zone. Even Linecum, whose ERA 8.49 and who walked 6 guys in 5 innings last night, did OK (4 runs in 5 innings)--because he threw a whole lot of breaking balls.

 

In other words, my advice to Dombrowski is to limit himself to maybe getting another good bullpen arm, period, and let this team work its way through the rest of the season, whatever happens. And by all means don't trade away any more of our top prospects. Enough is enough.

Edited July 30, 2016 by Maxbialystock

[bowman]

I agree with the young players learning how to win attitude, but Hanley is a veteran, and that throw to home was awful. Cost us the game, not to mention he could have came up with the first out of the inning play at first. Hanley has been having a decent year, but down the road I'd like to see an upgrade defensively at first, at least in late innings. Remember in the W.S. game when they left Buckner in at the end and didn't put Dave Stapleton in like they had been doing all season. Game over. Again, Farrell is most of the blame here, makes bad moves. The key is does he learn by them.. Very rarely do you have a nucleus of young star players and more coming like we have with Just missing a few pieces, lets not screw this up. I loved Rice and Lynn because they gave us hope. Be very interesting down the road to see what Rice, Lynn, Evans outfield compares to Betts, Bradley, Benny if he stays. I'd go out on the limb and say defensively I take the killer B's, Offensively that will be a tough one. As good as Lynn was, he wanted to play on the west coast which might have cost him being a Hall of Famer if he stayed. Rice enough said, Evans is the guy that to me all things considered was a true clutch player for us on both sides of the field. One of the best Rf I ever saw. But one thing to remember as all our Yankee friends will say, No Rings for that group.

[S5Dewey]

My realistic view of the Sox right now, July 30, is that now is not the time to make a big trade to improve the rotation as was done o/a August 1, 2013. Why? Because the rotation right now is not that bad: Porcello and Price are both pretty solid; Pomeranz just might be as good as indicated at San Diego this year; Wright can be very good when his knuckler is working; ERod was good last year and could be that way again this year.

 

But also because this is a pretty talented lineup which, however, lacks experience. I think the Sox can get to the playoffs as currently configured--and assuming the bullpen DL's return in good order--but maybe lacks the maturity to win in the postseason. The Angels (Sciosia, actually) showed us how to deal with Ortiz in game 1 Thursday night--when in doubt, walk him. Detroit should have done that in the ALCS in 2013, and you can bet it will happen this postseason. Everyone else in the lineup is up and own like a yo-yo. Collectively, they have scored a lot of runs and will score a lot more, but collectively they right now are vulnerable to good pitching, not just great pitching. And right now I would define good pitching as anyone with good breaking balls (curve, slider, changeup, knuckle curve, whatever) that is in or close to the strike zone. Even Linecum, whose ERA 8.49 and who walked 6 guys in 5 innings last night, did OK (4 runs in 5 innings)--because he threw a whole lot of breaking balls.

 

In other words, my advice to Dombrowski is to limit himself to maybe getting another good bullpen arm, period, and let this team work its way through the rest of the season, whatever happens. And by all means don't trade away any more of our top prospects. Enough is enough.

 

My interpretation of this post, FWIW:

Let's be realistic, guys. This is a team that finished last for the past two seasons. We're now in a bit of a rebuilding mode. Let's be patient for a year and not do anything stupid in an attempt to go from last to first (again). While our ultimate goal is always to win the World Series, a more realistic goal this year is to make the playoffs, give this team a taste of playoff experience and tweak what has to be tweaked in the off season to put them in a position to be a serious WS contender for years to come.

Max and others, ...agree?

[bowman]

I'd give up a little bit more and bring in Lucroy. A veteran player that would step in and be a force on both sides of the field. Esp. if we could extend him. Can't say enough about that position. Where would we have been without Tek. I think DD can make the deal without giving up something crazy, if not than worth the try. Could be a smart move going forward with this pitching staff also.

[bowman]

So If you had a choice of winning the world series this year and having so so years for the next 3 - 4 years what would you do..

[Bellhorn04]

So If you had a choice of winning the world series this year and having so so years for the next 3 - 4 years what would you do..

 

Funny thing, but things really have changed because we've won it 3 times. In the old days the answer to this question would have been extremely obvious.

[S5Dewey]

So If you had a choice of winning the world series this year and having so so years for the next 3 - 4 years what would you do..

 

Your question if flawed on several levels.

 

First, there's no guarantee that Lucroy or any one other player would win Boston a World Championship.

 

Second, I'm not looking at being so-so for the next 3-4 years. "So-so" is ~.500. We're better than "so-so" now. I'm looking at going deep into the playoffs for the next 3-4 years (and beyond).

 

IMO (and I hope it's fairly obvious to others) that this team does not have the pitching to go deep into the playoffs in 2016. In addition, this team doesn't hit great pitching, and great pitching is what you'll see more of in the playoffs. Great pitching is what got these teams as far as they are. When it comes to pitching we're bringing a knife to a gunfight.

 

I don't want to see DD trade away outstanding prospects in July or August in a futile effort to make this team into something they're not going to be anyway.

[Bellhorn04]

In addition, this team doesn't hit great pitching, and great pitching is what you'll see more of in the playoffs.

 

Question for you Dewey: which major league team is the best at hitting great pitching this year?

[S5Dewey]

Funny thing, but things really have changed because we've won it 3 times. In the old days the answer to this question would have been extremely obvious.

 

Ummm...yeah. I can remember pre-2004 when I heard people say that they wouldn't care if we finished last for the next 10 years if we could win a WS Championship JUST ONCE!

 

As I have been wont to say on occasion, "perspective is everything".

[bowman]

It's a tough one because if the chips fall our way we could win 2 in 5 years. If not we could win none. Sometimes luck and fate have the final say. Just having an awesome team that is fun to watch with people making sensible moves is all we can ask. We are some of the most loyal and smartest fans in the country. That is why every move is hashed over by us. You have to have 2 sides to come up with the best decisions. I still think back to some of the teams we had, 78, 86, and no Ring. Hard to believe.

[Bellhorn04]

Let me put it this way: the 15 years since Henry's group bought the team have generally been fantastic. If we can replicate that record over the next 15 years I'll be a happy Sox fan. (Of course I might also be a dead happy Sox fan.)

[bowman]

Why is the question flawed. It was a pretty easy question. Don't overthink it now. Make it easy on yourself. The devil wants to offer you a choice. Can you make it.

[S5Dewey]

Question for you Dewey: which major league team is the best at hitting great pitching this year?

 

That's a really good question, and one I'm not going to do the research on, but I can tell you this... it ain't us.

 

My point in that paragraph is that our pitching staff is most likely inferior to any pitching staff we'd see in the playoffs (once we got by the one-game wild-card game). We have nobody who instills fear in opposing hitters unless it's Wright, and that speaks for itself.

[Bellhorn04]

Why is the question flawed. It was a pretty easy question. Don't overthink it now. Make it easy on yourself. The devil wants to offer you a choice. Can you make it.

 

First you have to define so so years. All out of the playoffs?

[Slasher9]

My interpretation of this post, FWIW:

Let's be realistic, guys. This is a team that finished last for the past two seasons. We're now in a bit of a rebuilding mode. Let's be patient for a year and not do anything stupid in an attempt to go from last to first (again). While our ultimate goal is always to win the World Series, a more realistic goal this year is to make the playoffs, give this team a taste of playoff experience and tweak what has to be tweaked in the off season to put them in a position to be a serious WS contender for years to come.

Max and others, ...agree?

Agree. But: Ortiz

[Bellhorn04]

That's a really good question, and one I'm not going to do the research on, but I can tell you this... it ain't us.

 

I have no clue what the answer is.

[bowman]

Maybe a sniff, but no ring...

[S5Dewey]

It's a tough one because if the chips fall our way we could win 2 in 5 years. If not we could win none. Sometimes luck and fate have the final say. Just having an awesome team that is fun to watch with people making sensible moves is all we can ask. We are some of the most loyal and smartest fans in the country. That is why every move is hashed over by us. You have to have 2 sides to come up with the best decisions. I still think back to some of the teams we had, 78, 86, and no Ring. Hard to believe.

 

Agree, completely. The arguments can be made that 1) the 2003 team was better than 2004's, and even 2) the 2004 team wasn't the best team in baseball that year. And look how things worked out.

 

BTW, I still give Kevin Millar a lot of credit for that 2004 win when he set the tone for the last four ALCS games by saying, "Don't let us win this game..." Millar isolated the championship run into one game and everyone bought into it. Winning game 5 established momentum and from there on the team played better than they actually were.

[S5Dewey]

I have no clue what the answer is.

 

LOL Me neither!!

[Dojji]

I don't think the solution is adding more talent. This team has the talent to win the World Series, of that I have no doubt. We are far more talented right now than teams that have won it all. The question is about time, and whether the players can turn into a unit that can fire on all cylinders between now and October. We've made a HUGE revolution in the roster over the last year, sometimes it can take time for all the changes to settle in. And sometimes the time it needs to happen does not exist. That's one of the risks you take when you make large changes to a roster.

[S5Dewey]

Agree. But: Ortiz

 

I know. Irreplaceable.

 

Moon keeps talking about how we're going to "replace" Papi. We're not. It's going to be up to the entire team to step up and get a few more hits at crucial times.

 

That is, unless you're talking about how cool it would be if the Sox won a WS championship in Papi's last year. I agree, it would, but I'm not willing to compromise the future of the team so it can happen. Is that cold?

[S5Dewey]

I don't think the solution is adding more talent. This team has the talent to win the World Series, of that I have no doubt. We are far more talented right now than teams that have won it all. The question is about time, and whether the players can turn into a unit that can fire on all cylinders between now and October.

 

Yes, I agree that it COULD happen, but saying this is like the old saw of "Once you make the playoffs anything can happen". It's true, it CAN happen, but the smart money is always on the team that's proven themselves to be the best.

[S5Dewey]

Let me put it this way: the 15 years since Henry's group bought the team have generally been fantastic. If we can replicate that record over the next 15 years I'll be a happy Sox fan. (Of course I might also be a dead happy Sox fan.)

 

And people in Heaven (or wherever we end up ) are going to be wondering why we're smiling all the time.

[Nick]

I don't think the solution is adding more talent. This team has the talent to win the World Series, of that I have no doubt. We are far more talented right now than teams that have won it all. The question is about time, and whether the players can turn into a unit that can fire on all cylinders between now and October. We've made a HUGE revolution in the roster over the last year, sometimes it can take time for all the changes to settle in. And sometimes the time it needs to happen does not exist. That's one of the risks you take when you make large changes to a roster.

 

I disagree slightly. Baseball is one sport where you can put the best player in each position at any time. There's really no sharing of a ball as in basketball where 5 All Stars does not equal best team. I agree that we have pretty good talent but that's not to say that upgrades are out of question. Right now 1B, 2B, SS, CF, LF and DH are set. (Hanley is with us for 3 more years, Sox will not eat both Pablo and Hanley's contracts). Milwaukee catcher maybe someone that can be the gap to 2018 season for Swihart. Ideally Benintendi and Moncada are in the lineup for at least part of 2017 season. Hanley moves to DH and Shaw to 1B.

 

Whole lot of tweaking is all we need. But will we have to make a big plunge to acquire a quality to of rotation pitcher? Is so, why wait?

[a700hitter]

I disagree slightly. Baseball is one sport where you can put the best player in each position at any time. There's really no sharing of a ball as in basketball where 5 All Stars does not equal best team. I agree that we have pretty good talent but that's not to say that upgrades are out of question. Right now 1B, 2B, SS, CF, LF and DH are set. (Hanley is with us for 3 more years, Sox will not eat both Pablo and Hanley's contracts). Milwaukee catcher maybe someone that can be the gap to 2018 season for Swihart. Ideally Benintendi and Moncada are in the lineup for at least part of 2017 season. Hanley moves to DH and Shaw to 1B.

 

Whole lot of tweaking is all we need. But will we have to make a big plunge to acquire a quality to of rotation pitcher? Is so, why wait?

OMG! But what about the future. We can't sacrifie the future. Just being sarcastic, and it is not directed at you. I have been beating this drum to all those who can't bear with parting with prospects. Good pitching is not going to fall into our laps from the sky. And we have a real lack of quality arms in our organization, so they will need to come from the outside. Our payroll is already pretty high, so it is doubtful that we can add another $200 million FA (who everyone seems to hate, BTW). The only avenue left to acquire quality pitching is to trade in some prospect chips if we want to have a playoff team before 2021.

[moonslav59]

Moon keeps talking about how we're going to "replace" Papi. We're not. It's going to be up to the entire team to step up and get a few more hits at crucial times.

 

I never meant to even imply that one single player can or will be able to replace what Papi has brought to this team's winning ways over the years, especially in the playoffs.

 

My point was that some one is going to be our next DH. The drop off is going to have to be recouped elsewhere, and it doesn't necessarily have to be on offense. We can find new ways to win besides relying on one beast to carry us through several playoff series. I have been against the idea of spending a big portion of our financial winter allocation on Encarnacion, because I think we need to make room for Moncada and Benintendi in next year's line-up. LF is already pretty much open, but filling the DH slot with Encarnacion, instead of Ramirez/Shaw or Moncada is not a big enough bang for the buck as spending on pitching upgrades and replacements for Uehara, Zeigler and Tazawa. I've come around to starting to like the idea of signing Encarnacion more than I did before, but I worry about the luxury budget restrictions going forward, our banning from IFA signings and our probable lower draft picks over the next few years with changes made to how much you can spend on picks.

 

I totally agree that it will take a team effort to "replace" Papi, and I understand replacing him is impossible. The point was that I believe this team can win going forward without Papi. I also think we will need plenty of young, inexpensive contributions from some of our players like Moncaada, Benintendi, Kopech, Travis, Groome and others to make it happen. Spending little on them can allow us to spend in areas we lack (pitching), and hopefully we will eventually get a FA pitcher or trade pitcher or two choice right.

 

Even with Papi, this team has serious flaws. I think we are still pretty competitive and have a chance at winning a ring, but we are currently not a top 3 or 4 contender. I understand the position of some posters who are willing to gamble away the possible futures of our top prospects for the here and now. Papi's window is closing fast. I get it. I'm fine with making deals for players that will help us now, but I am not for acquiring rentals at a high cost. Trading for Quintana or sale would be a 4 or 3 year window opening, so I'm willing to make big offers for either of them, but I think giving Beni and Moncada is too much of a sacrifice.

 

I know their values are speculative, and maybe I'm being influenced by the recent successes of Betts & Bogey, but these two prospects are very highly regarded by many scouts and ranking services who have very high success rates on players with their rankings. The amount of years of team control at such bargain prices on these two is a great value that should not be squandered out of panic or the emotions over the Ortiz window closing without one more ring. We could trade for Sale, Quintana and Bruce and still not win a ring this year.

 

I'm all about improving the top of our rotation almost constantly, but prices are usually way too high this time of year. I realize guys like Sale and Quintana are not made available too often, so certainly we need to kick the tires by offering an "overpay", but I'm not for the gross overpay it will probably take to get one of these guys.

 

[moonslav59]

OMG! But what about the future. We can't sacrifie the future. Just being sarcastic, and it is not directed at you. I have been beating this drum to all those who can't bear with parting with prospects. Good pitching is not going to fall into our laps from the sky. And we have a real lack of quality arms in our organization, so they will need to come from the outside. Our payroll is already pretty high, so it is doubtful that we can add another $200 million FA (who everyone seems to hate, BTW). The only avenue left to acquire quality pitching is to trade in some prospect chips if we want to have a playoff team before 2021.

 

I've been against almost all of our trades and signings recently, but not out of fear of trading away some or many of our best prospects. I've made a slew of suggestions and realize some might have been more "pie-in-the-sky" than realistic suggestions, but the fact is, we've already traded away a lot of talent (for the wrong guys, IMO) to boost our staff.

 

We have traded away Margot, Espinoza, de la Rosa, Webster, Guerra, Basabe, Allen and more to build up what everybody assumed would be a top 3 bullpen, if not best overall. Injuries to Kimbrel, Smith, Uehara and Tazawa have made our pen a top 10 or 15 one, so it's hard to blame our current woes on any lack of trying. We went out and signed perhaps the best FA SP'er (on paper) in several years in Price. Even to those of us who were against the signing, nobody expected to get near mediocrity from him in his first year.

 

Now, the drum beat continues to keep repeating the failed methodology of our recent past. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for acquiring a top of rotation SP'er and overpaying to get one. I don't want to go back and beat a dead horse about squandering so much young talent for pen arms and not starting pitchers (except for Pomeranz), but losing all that young talent has squeezed us into a corner. To me, we still have great talent on the farm, but to further deplete it willy nilly would be a grave mistake. I know that nobody here is saying we should just hand away our best young prospects for peanuts or rentals (although there has been some rumblings about getting Hill), but we need to be careful.

 

Gone are the days we could nab top talent in the lower first round by being able to outspend cheaper teams.

 

Gone are the days of signing any international free agents for at least a year anyway.

 

Gone are the days of getting two top 7 draft picks in 3 years.

 

Gone are the days, and actually those days never existed, of relying on big FA signings to fill crucial gaps in our 25 man roster.

 

It's not going to be easy for us to keep our farm well stocked going forward. That was one reason I was against trading away a long-away prospect like Espinoza, even if it was for a SP'er with 2.4 years of team control. Had we not traded away so much youth already, I think we'd be all in for Sale or Quintana right now, but because we have already given up so much, I think the scales would be tipped too much by offering a large package that includes Moncada or maybe even Benintendi. I'd have been happy trading Swihart, Espi, Devers and Margot for an ace, because we'd still have Moncada, Beni, Travis, Kopech and Groome, but now, I'm not so sure we can get the type of SP'er I want without the future being too much affected. It's sad, but I just don't see a deal out there that makes sense for us right now. What can we get for Swihart, Devers, Johnson and Owens? Certainly not Sale or Quinatana. Maybe someone better than Pomeranz, but probably not a pitcher that will give us a feeling that we have just become a major contender for the next 2-3 years.