A Realistic View at 2016

[Bellhorn04]

Looks like they'll have another 20 to go.

 

I've told you 10 million times not to exaggerate like that.

[a700hitter]

Looks like they'll have another 20 to go.

They are the team for us to beat in the second half imo. Their offense is just starting to get rolling. Bautista will be back from injury and they have better pitching than us.

[Bellhorn04]

The Donaldson trade was one of the all-time robberies.

[a700hitter]

IMO, the Jays will be the team to beat in our division. They have a better team than either the Sox or the Os.

I agree.

 

That said, I 100% agree with you about not mortgaging the future for the short term.

I think we can land a #4/5 pitcher, maybe a couple of them without mortgaging our future. We supposedly have such a deep farm of prospects. We should have enough chips to get it done. I am not looking for them to get Price and Tulo. Rich Hill or Pomeranz would suit me just fine.

[mvp 78]

Pomeranz would cost a pretty penny, unfortunately.

[a700hitter]

Pomeranz would cost a pretty penny, unfortunately.

They would certainly be selling high on him, but we should be able to get him without breaking the bank.

[mvp 78]

They would certainly be selling high on him, but we should be able to get him without breaking the bank.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/rangers-interested-in-drew-pomeranz.html

 

Looks like they want a player like Profar.

[a700hitter]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/rangers-interested-in-drew-pomeranz.html

 

Looks like they want a player like Profar.

We will have to see what they get. This is all just negotiating posturing that they are doing.

[moonslav59]

My only point was that if the Jays could land 2 premier players and an All Star reliever at the trading deadline, we can land a # 4 and #5 without mortgaging our future. I am not interested in excuses by the FO if thy don't get it done.

 

As for the Jays, they are probably the strongest team in the ALE. Dickey has put up solid and consistent performances over his tenure with the Blue Jays. Yeah Noah looks like a stud, and I hope that he will be a stud, but that one trade will not undo the Jays. He has been experiencing a dead arm and he has bone spurs in his elbow. So, who knows how long he will last.

 

Here's the scoop on d'Arnaud. He had better step up the offense and learn to play another position, because he couldn't throw out that 103 year old woman that ran the bases in Toronto last week. Swihart is Johnny Bench compared to d'Arnaud.

 

I'm always against trying to acquire 4/5 slot pitchers. Even getting 1/2 slot pitchers are somewhat of a gamble, but 5 slot guys are prone to not produce as hopes for.

 

I know a lot of people think Peavy was a significant factor in our 2013 championship, but I'm not sure I agree.

 

I realize the catch-22 aspect of our situation.

 

We all want a solid young SP'er with several years of affordable team control.

 

We all don't want too part with Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Moncada, Beni, Espi, Swi and maybe Devers.

 

To get a longer term solution to our rotation need, we're going to have to part with some top talent. They question comes down to who is available and how can we get one without parting with too much top talent. I hate parting with any of the players listed above, but to me, the players we can probably still get by after them trading away are Swihart, Devers and maybe some sort of combination from Kopech, Travis, Holt or Hernandez, Owens, Johnson, TBall or other. I'd like to see what we could get for a package like this.

 

Note: I am not saying trade this package for the best we can get. I'm not for handing these guys away. I am not undervaluing them, just because I am suggesting we offer them in trade. I think we need a top of rotation starter not a 4/5 type starter, and I am realistic enough to know it's going to hurt getting one.

 

I'm also not against getting a solid #2 type and a 4/5 slot starter, and I think this is the first time, I've ever been on board with trading to upgrade the 5 slot, however, the only way I want us to get a 5 slot starter, is if we also get a number 2. Just getting a #5 or a #5 and 5 will not be enough, IMO, and will risk losing more decent prospects for a dream of a prayer.

 

[mvp 78]

We will have to see what they get. This is all just negotiating posturing that they are doing.

 

They have him under contract through 2018. I'm sure they could use him in their rotation next year...

[Spudboy]

The Donaldson trade was one of the all-time robberies.

 

f*** me sideways. I'm still not convinced that Ben was not aware that Donaldson could be had. He should have made it clear to Beane that "if" he decides to move Donaldson that the Sox are all in and to contact us first. Beane has played ball with the Sox plenty of times. I see no reason why he would not do so again in this case. Maybe Ben had no interest in Donaldson? If so, it was a mistake.

[a700hitter]

They have him under contract through 2018. I'm sure they could use him in their rotation next year...

Definitely, he would not be a half year rental. He would be a 2 1/2 year acquisition and we need pitching. He will cost a lot more than Hill, but I wouldn't view it as sacrificing the future. Our system doesn't have a lot of pitching talent and we have an ample supply of hitters. Swapping some hitters for 2 1/2 years of a solid pitcher is not sacrificing the future. To me that would be a move to build for the future.

[a700hitter]

f*** me sideways. I'm still not convinced that Ben was not aware that Donaldson could be had. He should have made it clear to Beane that "if" he decides to move Donaldson that the Sox are all in and to contact us first. Beane has played ball with the Sox plenty of times. I see no reason why he would not do so again in this case. Maybe Ben had no interest in Donaldson? If so, it was a mistake.

The GM gets paid to know who is available.

[moonslav59]

Definitely, he would not be a half year rental. He would be a 2 1/2 year acquisition and we need pitching. He will cost a lot more than Hill, but I wouldn't view it as sacrificing the future. Our system doesn't have a lot of pitching talent and we have an ample supply of hitters. Swapping some hitters for 2 1/2 years of a solid pitcher is not sacrificing the future. To me that would be a move to build for the future.

 

Are we really so sure Pomeranz is a "solid pitcher"?

He's never started more than 22 games in MLB. Until this year, he only started over 10 games once (in 2012).

 

I'm just not one to over react to half season sample sizes.

 

I'm not saying I don't want him, but I'm afraid the cost will be way too high for someone who is not even close to a sure bet.

 

[a700hitter]

Are we really so sure Pomeranz is a "solid pitcher"?

He's never started more than 22 games in MLB. Until this year, he only started over 10 games once (in 2012).

 

I'm just not one to over react to half season sample sizes.

 

I'm not saying I don't want him, but I'm afraid the cost will be way too high for someone who is not even close to a sure bet.

 

And this is where the FO needs to earn their bloated salaries. They need to get good scouts on the ground to watch him pitch. They had better be checking videos of all his games and do whatever homework they need to do to determine if he is for real. The numbers are not going to give you that answer.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

 

I'm just not one to over react to half season sample sizes.

 

 

Says the guy that trumpets buch's half season ad nauseam.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

f*** me sideways. I'm still not convinced that Ben was not aware that Donaldson could be had. He should have made it clear to Beane that "if" he decides to move Donaldson that the Sox are all in and to contact us first. Beane has played ball with the Sox plenty of times. I see no reason why he would not do so again in this case. Maybe Ben had no interest in Donaldson? If so, it was a mistake.

 

And why would beane be obligated to contact the sawx first?

[moonslav59]

Says the guy that trumpets buch's half season ad nauseam.

 

You, again, misinterpret and misstate my position.

 

1) Buch has had 1 really good full season and one okay full season. He's had 1 great half season and a couple other very good ones. That's a big difference from Pomeranz's one good half season.

 

2) I stated that Buch's several full and half seasons of greatness and plus sample sizes was what gave us hope he might give us a full plus season this year.

 

3) Almost every time I defended Buch was in response to someone mistakenly representing his portfolio. I was actually for taking Buch's option and trading him, so I'm not sure how that can be viewed as "trumpeting". Somehow you find ways to convolute just about everything anyone posts.

 

[moonslav59]

And why would beane be obligated to contact the sawx first?

 

Who knows how the deal went down, but in theory, if Ben was on top of his game, he'd have told Beane to call him before he finalizes any deal for Donaldson, to see if he might be able to top the other team's offer.

 

I don't actually see it that way. I think Ben should have contacted Beane and given him a near top offer for JD, it should have been better than Toronto's to begin with.

[Spudboy]

And why would beane be obligated to contact the sawx first?

 

He shouldn't.

 

I am saying that the onus is on Ben to keep in touch with Beane about a player of interest.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

You, again, misinterpret and misstate my position.

 

1) Buch has had 1 really good full season and one okay full season. He's had 1 great half season and a couple other very good ones. That's a big difference from Pomeranz's one good half season.

 

2) I stated that Buch's several full and half seasons of greatness and plus sample sizes was what gave us hope he might give us a full plus season this year.

 

3) Almost every time I defended Buch was in response to someone mistakenly representing his portfolio. I was actually for taking Buch's option and trading him, so I'm not sure how that can be viewed as "trumpeting". Somehow you find ways to convolute just about everything anyone posts.

 

 

No, in one post you claim to not over react to half season season sample sizes yet you bring up buch's half season sample sizes almost as much as you bring up the prospects that were traded for kimbrel.

[Slasher9]

I'm always against trying to acquire 4/5 slot pitchers. Even getting 1/2 slot pitchers are somewhat of a gamble, but 5 slot guys are prone to not produce as hopes for.

 

I know a lot of people think Peavy was a significant factor in our 2013 championship, but I'm not sure I agree.

 

I realize the catch-22 aspect of our situation.

 

We all want a solid young SP'er with several years of affordable team control.

 

We all don't want too part with Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Moncada, Beni, Espi, Swi and maybe Devers.

 

To get a longer term solution to our rotation need, we're going to have to part with some top talent. They question comes down to who is available and how can we get one without parting with too much top talent. I hate parting with any of the players listed above, but to me, the players we can probably still get by after them trading away are Swihart, Devers and maybe some sort of combination from Kopech, Travis, Holt or Hernandez, Owens, Johnson, TBall or other. I'd like to see what we could get for a package like this.

 

Note: I am not saying trade this package for the best we can get. I'm not for handing these guys away. I am not undervaluing them, just because I am suggesting we offer them in trade. I think we need a top of rotation starter not a 4/5 type starter, and I am realistic enough to know it's going to hurt getting one.

 

I'm also not against getting a solid #2 type and a 4/5 slot starter, and I think this is the first time, I've ever been on board with trading to upgrade the 5 slot, however, the only way I want us to get a 5 slot starter, is if we also get a number 2. Just getting a #5 or a #5 and 5 will not be enough, IMO, and will risk losing more decent prospects for a dream of a prayer.

 

 

This post. 1 million percent.

[moonslav59]

No, in one post you claim to not over react to half season season sample sizes yet you bring up buch's half season sample sizes almost as much as you bring up the prospects that were traded for kimbrel.

 

You still don't get it.

 

Buch has had several good to great half seasons. Clearly his sample sizes combined are more conclusive than one half season by itself, especially, if that half season is at odds with a player's minor league performance level.

 

Take the Travis Shaw example, I have been cautioning Shaw praisers that his sample size is too small and at odds with his previous record in the minors. I also cautioned JBJ bashers over making definitive judgments based on small sample sizes.

 

Pomeranz has had one good half season. His minor league record is good but not as good as his 2016 half season. There's too much of a chance, IMO, that this half season might be an outlier. I don't think having 4 half seasons and one full season can be construed as being outlier seasons/halfseasons.

[SoxnCycles]

This post. 1 million percent.

 

I agree with this in principle, but I don't think a top of the line pitcher is going to be available before the deadline.

 

Hope I'm wrong, but I don't see a Sale or Fernandez being on the market.

[moonslav59]

I agree with this in principle, but I don't think a top of the line pitcher is going to be available before the deadline.

 

Hope I'm wrong, but I don't see a Sale or Fernandez being on the market.

 

I tend to agree. I've been racking my brain trying to find a non-contending team with the type of pitcher I want, and then see if they might be willing to take a few long-away prospects along with 1 or 2 ML ready or near ML ready players in exchange (see my suggested offer above), but I can't find "that guy".

 

I like Teheran, but agree that his mechanics raise the danger factor to unacceptable levels.

 

I think of pitchers like Quintana and Salazar that appear to be ace quality, but I'm not sure those two teams would take a bunch of prospects, even if they drop out of contention by the deadline. (Cleveland certainly doesn't appear to be even close to sellers.)

[Slasher9]

I agree with this in principle, but I don't think a top of the line pitcher is going to be available before the deadline.

 

Hope I'm wrong, but I don't see a Sale or Fernandez being on the market.

Agree SnC. If they are available they are going to demand an awfully painful haul...but I am hopeful that if the cost is too much for a 1 that we can find a solid 2 to add. I am optimistic that the 2nd half we will get the Price we expect which means we already have our shutdown ace. But even Pedro needed a schilling to finally get us to the promised land....

[Emp9]

A lot can happen before the deadline. I see plenty of teams 7 games out and in 3rd place & just barely over .500. A team like that is hoping for a win streak, what happens if its a bad losing streak they get instead during that 2 weeks plus of games before the deadline? I still look to the 11th hour for something to happen though.

[SoxnCycles]

Agree SnC. If they are available they are going to demand an awfully painful haul...but I am hopeful that if the cost is too much for a 1 that we can find a solid 2 to add. I am optimistic that the 2nd half we will get the Price we expect which means we already have our shutdown ace. But even Pedro needed a schilling to finally get us to the promised land....

 

Price, Porcello and Wright should be enough to get us the division, provided Wright grows some nails so he can grip a danmed ball when it gets a little damp and Price continues the slow process of pulling his head out of his ass.

 

Getting Kelly back in the pen and adding onr more decent arm there, via trade, should be enough to get this team into 1st.

I don't see another AL east team good enough to run away with it.

[moonslav59]

Price, Porcello and Wright should be enough to get us the division, provided Wright grows some nails so he can grip a danmed ball when it gets a little damp and Price continues the slow process of pulling his head out of his ass.

 

Getting Kelly back in the pen and adding onr more decent arm there, via trade, should be enough to get this team into 1st.

I don't see another AL east team good enough to run away with it.

 

I tend to agree, but it's not a sure bet. I think we need at least a solid 3/4 slot pitcher and RP'er to improve our odds enough for me to feel comfortable. Kimbrel may not come back or come back strong, and contrary to popular beliefs, a 4th starter is needed in the playoffs.

 

[SoxnCycles]

I tend to agree, but it's not a sure bet. I think we need at least a solid 3/4 slot pitcher and RP'er to improve our odds enough for me to feel comfortable. Kimbrel may not come back or come back strong, and contrary to popular beliefs, a 4th starter is needed in the playoffs.

 

 

Now, what fun would winning the division "comfortably" be?

Dog fights to the bitter end are a lot more fun!

 

Getting a 4th starter would help, but I don't see a decent field of pitchers to pick from.

There are a few, but there are also other teams that are looking for pitching help.

It's supply and demand and I don't want the Sox paying a premium price to just somewhat improve their chances of getting to the playoffs.