A Realistic View at 2016

[mvp 78]

If the Sox are trying to win a WS this year, and fail to upgrade their SP in a meaningful way, I see them looking at a LF upgrade. I suppose 3B (if Shaw continues to struggle) may be an option instead. I have more faith in HanRam than Young, Shaw, Holt, and Castillo combined... Which is a rebutal of what Bowman said.

 

If they don't upgrade their SP, it suggests that they don't believe they are a WS contender. We'll have to see what happens.

[moonslav59]

According to fangraphs, we have the

 

#1 offense

#7 defense (4th in UZR/150 and 1st with Inside Edge Fielding)

#17 pitching staff

However, we are ranked 21st in starting pitching.

 

Our 16.8 WAR with our non-pitchers is 6 points ahead of the next AL team (CLE) at 10.8. Here's how we rank in the AL position by position by WAR:

 

C-- 8th

1B- 6th

2B- 5th

3B- 7th

SS- 2nd

LF- 6th

CF- 3rd

RF- 1st

DH- 1st

 

[bowman]

I think you are off base on Shaw. No guarantee he's a Donaldson, but way too soon to label him. He has a nice swing and should figure it out. We have a real good starting lineup, although an upgrade in left would be nice. One more solid horse who can eat up innings and another solid arm in the bullpen is what we need right now. Things change so much day to day so I guess as long as we stay close, it give Dombrowski time to hone in on what would be the best moves. For sure, you can never have enough pitching. Too bad Castillo hasn't lived up to his billing. Talk about frosting on the cake with Betts and JBJ....

[moonslav59]

I think you are off base on Shaw. No guarantee he's a Donaldson, but way too soon to label him. He has a nice swing and should figure it out. We have a real good starting lineup, although an upgrade in left would be nice. One more solid horse who can eat up innings and another solid arm in the bullpen is what we need right now. Things change so much day to day so I guess as long as we stay close, it give Dombrowski time to hone in on what would be the best moves. For sure, you can never have enough pitching. Too bad Castillo hasn't lived up to his billing. Talk about frosting on the cake with Betts and JBJ....

 

How can I be way off base on Shaw, when I haven't taken a position other than we need more time to know how good (or mediocre) he really is.

 

His AAA and AA numbers were unimpressive. He had a nice run last year and a nice 3-4 weeks to start this year. That size sample size should convince no one of anything- good or bad. JBJ had a longer sample size of ineptness than Shaw has had of good production, and we saw what happened there.

 

I do like Shaw's swing, but to me, the jury is still out.

 

Here's a look at Shaw's OPS over the past few half seasons:

 

.789 1st 2016 MLB (dropping fast)

.813 2nd 2015 MLB

.674 1st 2015 AAA

.752 2nd 2014 AAA

.954 1st 2014 AA

.721 2nd 2013 AA

.744 1st 2013 AA

 

All I'm doing is preaching caution based on his recent career.

 

I know 506 MLB PAs might seem like a lot, but to me it's not. It's certainly encouraging, and it's getting large enough to begin to be definitive, but not quite, IMO.

 

MLB 506 PA .269/.330/.471/.801

AAA 668 PA .256/.319/.395/.715

AA 870 PA .242/.359/.436/.795

 

The fact that his OPS at AAA and AA are below his MLB OPS should make anyone take a little more time before proclaiming him "for real". I would not be surprised, if he ends up with a career MLB OPS or around .740-.760 which is about his AAA/AA number.

 

[Nick]

Question is how much upside do we have with Shaw? Will we be better off with say Devers or Moncada? Don't we want little more power out of corner infield positions?

 

Also have we given up too early on Swihart as a catcher? His major league value is behind the plate. I think we'll have better left field options.

[moonslav59]

Question is how much upside do we have with Shaw? Will we be better off with say Devers or Moncada? Don't we want little more power out of corner infield positions?

 

Also have we given up too early on Swihart as a catcher? His major league value is behind the plate. I think we'll have better left field options.

 

There's a long wait on Devers. Moncada may be ready next season, so we should know much more about Shaw before that happens.

 

I totally agree on Swihart's higher value as a catcher, so that's why I have suggested he be the key to any big trade we make.

 

His value is higher to another team than to us.

[Nick]

I would put together a package of Swihart and Espinoza for a cost controlled young starting pitcher.

 

At worst, we'll still have Young/Holt platoon in LF. We'll free up $37M for a big bat and a bullpen help (Oriz, Buch and Koji)

 

Espinoza is still few years away. I hate to trade him but we must win now, this team is capable of competing for a world series title with another solid starting pitcher.

 

Too much invested in Moncada to let him walk right now. I'm not convinced Shaw would be a regular 3B. I think he's more of a 1B.

 

If we sign our #1 pick, won't he be on the same path as Espinoza? Arriving in ML about the same time?

Edited June 16, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I would put together a package of Swihart and Espinoza for a cost controlled young starting pitcher.

 

At worst, we'll still have Young/Holt platoon in LF. We'll free up $37M for a big bat and a bullpen help (Oriz, Buch and Koji)

 

Espinoza is still few years away. I hate to trade him but we must win now, this team is capable of competing for a world series title with another solid starting pitcher.

 

Too much invested in Moncada to let him walk right now. I'm not convinced Shaw would be a regular 3B. I think he's more of a 1B.

 

If we sign our #1 pick, won't he be on the same path as Espinoza? Arriving in ML about the same time?

 

I might give Swihart and Espinoza for Salazar or Quintana- the two guys I most suggested we trade for last winter, but their stock has risen since then, and I doubt those two teams will be sellers this July.

 

Name some realistic names who might be available this summer.

 

I agree we have to keep Moncada. I also think Moncada will end up blocking Devers, so if a team is looking to the long picture, maybe Espinoza and Devers might be a trading pair (perhaps with Swihart as well).

 

I can't believe I'm open to trading Espi, but if it's for a young, cost-controlled top of rotation pitcher, then I'll listen.

 

[moonslav59]

Let's win tomorrow and own the best record in the AL.

[Emp9]

I've been causally looking for who could be available later this year, however remotely. Even if Jose Fernandez was get-able, let's pretend he is for a second, its questionable he'd be available for a post-season run. He's at 80 innings pitched now and Miami is starting to skip his starts. Just something to keep in mind. Quintana has been looking more human these past couple weeks, but not enough to effect his value I'm sure. Both these teams are still in the thick of it anyhow. Sonny Gray's (back injury) stock has tumbled, but I don't know enough about his troubles this season to have a definitive opinion yet. Could he help us or hurt us? I like Philly's Aaron Nola, Eickhoff, SD's Pomeranz, Atl's Teheran, TB's Odorizzi are also intriguing, if available. We should probably put together some kind of list of possibles, including long shots. A clearly stated 'Spitball list' so nobody gets their panties in a bunch, but with the goal to eventually reach a realistic conclusion.

 

Hmm... Not it!

[moonslav59]

Nice preliminary list. My questions might be...

 

1) Who can we realistically get for Swihart, Devers and any three from Holt, Kelly, Owens, Johnson, Kopech, Lakins, Hernandez, Chavis, Basabe, Dubon, Light...?

 

2) Who could we get by adding Travis to the list?

 

3) Who could we get by adding Espinoza or Groome to the list?

[Emp9]

Well, Philly loved Swihart before, but wanted the best of both worlds w/ Hamels. And don't get me wrong, I'm certainly not sold on either Nola or Eickhoff, they're simply just more in line with what the basics of what we'd need back for one of our blue chips. Nola vs Tor tonight, one of our primary competitors, so maybe we can steal a glimpse.

[moonslav59]

Well, Philly loved Swihart before, but wanted the best of both worlds w/ Hamels. And don't get me wrong, I'm certainly not sold on either Nola or Eickhoff, they're simply just more in line with what the basics of what we'd need back for one of our blue chips. Nola vs Tor tonight, one of our primary competitors, so maybe we can steal a glimpse.

 

It seems like there used to be 3-5 teams each year in a long term rebuild mode. With parity the way it is now, teams can go from last to championship and back to last again in a 3 year period (Care to guess what team that was?), it's just not the case anymore.

 

I just don't know, if even a team like the Phillies would trade a more known quality young pitcher for a pitcher way off in the horizon. Of course adding Swihart makes that deal a no brainer for Philly, but it's too much for us to give up for Nola. I confess, I'm no expert on Nola's potential, so I'd have to learn more about him, before suggesting that deal.

[bowman]

You said that your more concerned with Shaw than Hanram. I love Shaws swing and he's young. Your right, jury is still out. If Hanram puts a full year together with decent stats, I'll be happy, but so far, he still hasn't earned his keep. I hope he does, but I am more cautious with him than a kid who up until a week ago was raking. I guess just our opinions, but for sure, pitching is what we need. It's fun speculating what will happen. It's all good.....

[moonslav59]

You said that your more concerned with Shaw than Hanram. I love Shaws swing and he's young. Your right, jury is still out. If Hanram puts a full year together with decent stats, I'll be happy, but so far, he still hasn't earned his keep. I hope he does, but I am more cautious with him than a kid who up until a week ago was raking. I guess just our opinions, but for sure, pitching is what we need. It's fun speculating what will happen. It's all good.....

 

HanRam has a much longer history of success. Shaw's previous history before coming up last year was up and down and sub .790 in the minors for 2-3 years.

 

Also, it's been much longer than a week.

 

Shaw's OPS over the last 28 days is .535. That's 4 weeks.

 

Before those 4 weeks, he went 1 for 8 in the previous 2 games, so it's really been a 30 day slump. At least I hope it's just a slump.

 

[Slasher9]

HanRam has a much longer history of success. Shaw's previous history before coming up last year was up and down and sub .790 in the minors for 2-3 years.

 

Also, it's been much longer than a week.

 

Shaw's OPS over the last 28 days is .535. That's 4 weeks.

 

Before those 4 weeks, he went 1 for 8 in the previous 2 games, so it's really been a 30 day slump. At least I hope it's just a slump.

 

 

exactly. i'm not sure how anyone could have more faith in shaw then hanram. here's hoping shaw has a career arc similar to Hanley's....

[Emp9]

So, needless to say, I like Eickhoff's line against Tor way better than Nola's. I get the feeling both these guys are investments that might not give us what we need THIS season if acquired, with Nola being the better overall pitcher when he puts it all together (being only 23 yrs old after all). Instead of just saying I like Nola better, I'll try and tell you why. I've read conflicting reports on Nola's 4-seam velocity 91-94 and tops-out at 96 (?). Nola has shown great control and ver good Command. Both these guys have an above-avg Curveball (which wasn't always the case w/ Eickhoff). Eickhoff doesn't have the minor league track record Nola has or the supposed 4-seam velocity and has recently found some faith in his Slider. Which is fine, but I'm very weary on overuse of the Slider because over time that pitch can lead to much injury. To recap: Eickhoff (25) Slider, Curve, Sinker. Presently getting great results. Nola (23) Curve, Change, Sinker, 4-Seam. Nola more prone for getting more SO's & if his Sinker & Change are working a better GB%. Presently struggling. Both worth keeping an eye on as Trade deadline looms. Both probably not the immediate answer we're looking for this season for a post season run.

[moonslav59]

So, needless to say, I like Eickhoff's line against Tor way better than Nola's. I get the feeling both these guys are investments that might not give us what we need THIS season if acquired, with Nola being the better overall pitcher when he puts it all together (being only 23 yrs old after all). Instead of just saying I like Nola better, I'll try and tell you why. I've read conflicting reports on Nola's 4-seam velocity 91-94 and tops-out at 96 (?). Nola has shown great control and ver good Command. Both these guys have an above-avg Curveball (which wasn't always the case w/ Eickhoff). Eickhoff doesn't have the minor league track record Nola has or the supposed 4-seam velocity and has recently found some faith in his Slider. Which is fine, but I'm very weary on overuse of the Slider because over time that pitch can lead to much injury. To recap: Eickhoff (25) Slider, Curve, Sinker. Presently getting great results. Nola (23) Curve, Change, Sinker, 4-Seam. Nola more prone for getting more SO's & if his Sinker & Change are working a better GB%. Presently struggling. Both worth keeping an eye on as Trade deadline looms. Both probably not the immediate answer we're looking for this season for a post season run.

 

Thanks for the summary. I do think we need to look beyond just this year, and I realize getting a 23 or 25 year old is inherently riskier, but I think we need to look young not old, and as long as the kid is better than what we have right now, it may also be enough to get us over the hump this year.

 

In theory, I'd like a very promising, young but ML ready SP'er and a veteran RP'er doing well this year.

[moonslav59]

Posted earlier on other threads...

Here are the current worst teams by record in MLB and their best pitchers:

 

MN- No SP'ers with an ERA under 5.00, except Pat Dean who has a WHIP over 1.41. The only 2 RP'ers having decent years are 30 year old Fernando Abad and 31 year old Brandon Kintzler.

 

ATL- 25 year old Julio Teheran as been discussed (2.93/0.989), but there's also 23 y/o Matt Wisler (4.23/1.181) and 25 y/o closer Arodys Vizcaino (2.22/1.235 but with a 13 K/9 rate). There's also lefty RP'er (26 y/o) Hunter Cervenka (3.10/1.180 and 12.0 k/9)

 

SP- Tyson Ross is hurt, but there is lefty 27 y/o Drew Pomeranz (2.88/1.173 and 10.7 K/9) and 39 y/o closer Fernando Rodney who has yet to allow an earned run in 23.1 IP (0.857 WHIP/ 8.1 k/9). 29 y/o lefty Ryan Buchter is off to a nice start (1.86

 

CIN- Dan Straily (27) 3.66/1.195, Brandon Finnegan (23 lefty) 3.61/1.312

 

OAK- Sonny Gray has been hurt and not pitching well, 36 y/o Rich Hill is on the DL, but they have quite a few RP'ers doing well so far this year. BB has a history of trading RP'ers often: Ryan Dull (26) 2.31/0.800, Sean Doolittle (29 lefty) 2.67/0.926, Fernando Rodriquez (32) 2.65/0.971

 

AZ- I doubt Greinke is even up for discussion, so all that's left are 4 RP'ers: Tyler Clippard (31) 3.65/1.378 and 10.2 K/9, Daniel Hudson (29) 1.73/0.846, Jake Barrett (24) 2.16/1.040 & Brad Ziegler (36) 2.93/1.446.

 

LAA- I don't see anyone worthwhile that is healthy and doing well, except RP'er Cam Bedrosian (24) 1.61/1.299 and 9.7 K/9.

 

PHI- 23 y/o Aaron Nola 3.51/1.134/9.9 K/9 and Jerad Eickhoff (25) 3.40/1.172 are doing very well. Vincent Velasquez (24) is on the DL 3.65/1.265 and maybe a couple RPers Hector Neris 11 K/9 and David Hernandez 11.5 K/9.

 

MIL- Zach Davies (23) 3.88/1.181, Junior Guerra (31)3.81/1.178 & Jimmy Nelson (27) 3.92/1.353 plus RP'er Tyler Thornburg (27) 2.60/0.759 and 12.7 K/9 rate.

 

I haven't even heard of some of these guys, and I'm no expert on other teams' players, but maybe someone from this group can become available and eventually help us.

______________________________________________________

 

Swihart would be the headliner on a package, in theory, to get a solid pitcher.

 

I have contended that Blake's value as a starting catcher on another team is more than his value as a platoon LF'er/3rd string catcher for the Sox. Please do not take this to mean I value Swihart less than any of you do. I still think he is a great young talent with high value.

 

My second major piece would be Devers. I realize that Shaw is still not a sure bet at 3B, and with HanRam possibly being our DH next year, trading Devers could be viewed as risky. However, I think Moncada's ultimate landing spot might be 3B, 1B or DH (with LF as another choice). We also have Sam Travis and Pablo Sandoval in the mix at 3B/1B next year, if Shaw falters. I think these facts essentially mean Devers is all but blocked. Again, this does not mean I devalue Devers. I just see his value as being greater for another team, and that is a foundation for making a trade offer.

 

So, my choice for making a serious offer for a solid #2 type SP'er would start with Swihart and Devers. To improve our chances at getting the best (non rental) SP'er out there for this portion of a package, we could do one or more of the following:

 

1) Take on a high salary pitcher or add another high salary player as a salary dump (like Mike Lowell was in the Beckett deal).

2) Offer someone like Castillo or Pablo with just about all their salary paid, assuming the other team wants one.

3) Widen the package with a vet or two, if the team is looking to seriously compete next year (such as Holt or Kelly/Buchholz/Barnes/Elias/Layne)

4) Widen the package with mid-level prospects such as...

Kopech, Owens, Johnson, Lakins, Light, TBall, Stanki/ K Martin/C Acosta

Marrero, Hernandez, Dubon, Chavis, Longhi, Ockimey or maybe even Travis

Basabe or Yoan Aybar

5) Offer cash

 

I'd try hard to do any of the above, before I part with Moncada, Benintendi or Espinoza.

 

Note: just because a guy like Sam Travis is ranked 5th in our system, doesn't mean his value is equal to other teams' #5 prospect. Not many teams have 4 top prospects like ours.

 

[moonslav59]

We're just pass the 40% point of the season and our top 3 starters are 22-8 with an ERA of 3.52 and a WHIP of 1.11.

 

Our line-up consists of 4 guys with an OPS over .900:

Ortiz 1.147

JBJ .951

Bogey .908

Young .900

 

3 more guys over .795:

Betts .851

Pedey .830

Shaw .795

 

And then HanRam at .725 and Vazquez at .547 (.603 catching OPS).

[moonslav59]

Quality Starts numbers:

 

MLB Average is 48%

 

85% Wright

71% Price

62% Porcello

 

Team record in starts:

8-5 Wright

8-5 Porcello

8-6 Price

24-16 Total

 

13-13 The rest. (I would have thought our 4-5 slot starters would have been worse than .500.)

 

Some props to Porcello for having his best ERA+ and WHIP season of his whole career (8th year).

[moonslav59]

Would you be onboard with this trade offer to Milwaukee?

 

Trade:

Joe Kelly ($1.6M and 2 more arbs)

Rusney Castillo ($52M/4.6 years)

Blake Swihart (Pre-arb)

Rafael Devers (Pre-arb)

Brian Johnson (Pre-arb) or Henry Owens (Pre-arb)

Teddy Stankiewicz (Pre-arb)

Total contracts: $54M (not counting arbs)

 

to MIL for:

Ryan Braun ($88M/4.6M or $99M/5.6 yrs)

Zach Davies (Pre-arb)

Tyler Thornburg (3 arbs left)

Total cost: $88M

 

The Brewers save $34M and can then trade Lucroy -saving another $3M) for something very special and put Swihart behind the plate.

 

[Nick]

no thanks

[mvp 78]

88M for Braun? Nope.

[Spudboy]

No.

[Eddy Ballgame]

If the Sox ever consider packaging Swihart & Devers together, there had better be a top of the rotation starter coming back. Not an expensive left fielder. No thanks. Young has been solid, Holt is coming back and Benintendi isn't too far off. If for some reason Benintendi fails, Moncada could certainly be an option.

[moonslav59]

88M for Braun? Nope.

 

It's essentially $34M for 4.6 years of Braun as we'd be dumping Castillo's contract.

 

We also get a very good RP'er and promising starter who is off to a good start.

 

Would you do the deal without Devers?

[moonslav59]

If the Sox ever consider packaging Swihart & Devers together, there had better be a top of the rotation starter coming back. Not an expensive left fielder. No thanks. Young has been solid, Holt is coming back and Benintendi isn't too far off. If for some reason Benintendi fails, Moncada could certainly be an option.

 

I'm thinking Braun would be the DH next year, but I certainly understand wanting an much better pitcher than Davies and Thornburg for two top prospects.

[Slasher9]

No thank you to proven steroids users. Pass.

[mvp 78]

It's essentially $34M for 4.6 years of Braun as we'd be dumping Castillo's contract.

 

We also get a very good RP'er and promising starter who is off to a good start.

 

Would you do the deal without Devers?

No, why bring Braun in? It's like throwing bad money after s*** money.