A Realistic View at 2016

[User Name]

Got it. Still confusing as hell. Not every thread has longevity anyways, they tend to moderate themselves.

 

If, on this site "they tended to moderate themselves" the actual moderator wouldn't be so adamant about reducing clutter.

[mvp 78]

If, on this site "they tended to moderate themselves" the actual moderator wouldn't be so adamant about reducing clutter.

 

Maybe I'm tired, but I had to read this out loud before it made sense.

[User Name]

Maybe I'm tired, but I had to read this out loud before it made sense.

 

I'll write it in spanish for better sentence construction, smartass.

[mvp 78]

I'll write it in spanish for better sentence construction, smartass.

 

There's a thread for that. You can chat back and forth with iortiz and discuss enlightened topics like "Why was Fernando Valenzuela the greatest Mexican to ever live" and "Aren't Haitians the worst?"

 

Nap time.

[User Name]

There's a thread for that. You can chat back and forth with iortiz and discuss enlightened topics like "Why was Fernando Valenzuela the greatest Mexican to ever live" and "Aren't Haitians the worst?"

 

Nap time.

 

No thanks. I'd rather listen to Harold Reynolds and Hawk Harrelson discuss the uselessness of statistics while Fetty Wap plays in the background.

[moonslav59]

I really can't speak for Moon, but to me The Realistic Threads were an attempt to have a realistic discussion about Red Sox baseball. Free of trolls, political views, outrageous hyperbole, preposterous trade proposals, etc. Where observations were welcome and factually dug a little deeper into without the need of personal attacks (or at least not as many personal attacks). At the same time, being aware of budget constraints and not forgoing all reason when it comes to free agent signings, trades, track records, history, expectations, our farm system, our graduates, including all other teams as well. That doesn't mean there were no heated arguments or disagreements. But It always served as a decent sanctuary for posters who just simply wanted to talk baseball and leave out that other noise. Besides centering around budgetary criteria, there wasn't any actual set topic. Surprisingly, nobody ever seemed to mind or take issue with it's topical fluctuation or vagueness. If I were a Moderator, I would concentrate my efforts on keeping things civil, and not worry so much about it's subject matter (unless it's not baseball related of course) or where to file it under.

 

Thanks, emp. Yes, my intention was to have a thread that focused on realistic comments about just the Sox. Not politics. Not trolling. Not personal attacks. Not let's trade Craig and Pablo for Sale.

[moonslav59]

Updated Sox OPS leaders after 5/31/16 game:

1.132 Ortiz

1.010 Bradley

.917 Bogey

.866 Shaw

.858 Pedroia

.847 Betts

.830 Rutledge

.788 Young

.771 Ramirez

.712 Swihart

.664 Holt

.603 Vazquez

.476 Hanigan

[harmony]

Updated Sox OPS leaders after 5/31/16 game:

1.132 Ortiz

1.010 Bradley

.917 Bogey

.866 Shaw

.858 Pedroia

.847 Betts

.830 Rutledge

.788 Young

.771 Ramirez

.712 Swihart

.664 Holt

.603 Vazquez

.476 Hanigan

Hitting has not been a problem this year for the Red Sox, who lead the league in runs scored by a substantial margin:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2016.shtml

 

Conversely, the Red Sox rank 10th in fewest runs allowed, yielding just above the league average.

 

My Seattle club ranks second in runs scored and first in fewest runs allowed. The Red Sox and Mariners are the league's far-and-away leaders in run differential at +80 and +65, respectively.

 

I can't explain how the 30-21 Mariners have been swept at home this season by the Athletics, Angels and Twins, three of the league's weakest teams. Still I like Cool Standings' current postseason odds for the Mariners (67.0%) and Red Sox (92.6%):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

 

I am likely to make a rare trip to Boston the weekend of October 22-23 and would welcome an ALCS matchup between the Sox and the Mariners at Fenway Park.

 

I hope we all experience enjoyable seasons.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR has come out with a new series called "Top 10 Trade Candidates". There's a couple interesting names in terms of the Sox needs:

 

6) Arodys Vizcaino (25y/o) RP'er ATL- 2 arb years left after 2016

9) Julio Teheran (25 y/o SP'er ATL- after this year is owed $26.3M/3 or $37.3M/4. ($5.4M luxury tax cost- a big plus for the Sox but not the Braves)

 

What would it take to get both of these guys?

 

Would you offer 3 from Swihart, Devers, Basabe, Kopech or Lakins?

 

If so, which 3?

 

Or is there another offer they may prefer?

 

[iortiz]

Young OPSing 788 and over HR? Didn't see that coming.

[iortiz]

MLBTR has come out with a new series called "Top 10 Trade Candidates". There's a couple interesting names in terms of the Sox needs:

 

6) Arodys Vizcaino (25y/o) RP'er ATL- 2 arb years left after 2016

9) Julio Teheran (25 y/o SP'er ATL- after this year is owed $26.3M/3 or $37.3M/4. ($5.4M luxury tax cost- a big plus for the Sox but not the Braves)

 

What would it take to get both of these guys?

 

Would you offer 3 from Swihart, Devers, Basabe, Kopech or Lakins?

 

If so, which 3?

 

Or is there another offer they may prefer?

 

IMO they will try to sale Teheran --if so-- like the last coke in the desert. Maybe something around Moncada and Swihart, could be more realistic.

[Palodios]

Teheran would be great, but if I was the Braves, I'd be asking for a Shelby Miller price.

[moonslav59]

While Miller also had 3 years of team control his years were all arb years ($4+M this year), Teheran's contract should change the return.

[moonslav59]

Young OPSing 788 and over HR? Didn't see that coming.

 

When you consider his horrendous start, Young has come on very strong in May. Here are the Sox OPS leaders over the last 28 days (not counting today):

1.273 Ortiz

1.202 JBJ

1.046 Bogey

1.026 Young

.889 Betts

.843 Ramirez

.843 Shaw

.839 Pedey

.836 Swihart

 

Wow, that's 9 guys over .839 for 4 weeks!

[iortiz]

When you consider his horrendous start, Young has come on very strong in May. Here are the Sox OPS leaders over the last 28 days (not counting today):

1.273 Ortiz

1.202 JBJ

1.046 Bogey

1.026 Young

.889 Betts

.843 Ramirez

.843 Shaw

.839 Pedey

.836 Swihart

 

Wow, that's 9 guys over .839 for 4 weeks!

 

Yeah, that's insane.

[Palodios]

While Miller also had 3 years of team control his years were all arb years ($4+M this year), Teheran's contract should change the return.

 

You're looking at 16 million for 3 years of Miller, or 26 million for 3.5 years of Teheran, and an option for Teheran.

 

They're both very cheap. Miller was cheaper, but Teheran has more control.

[southpaw777]

MLBTR has come out with a new series called "Top 10 Trade Candidates". There's a couple interesting names in terms of the Sox needs:

 

6) Arodys Vizcaino (25y/o) RP'er ATL- 2 arb years left after 2016

9) Julio Teheran (25 y/o SP'er ATL- after this year is owed $26.3M/3 or $37.3M/4. ($5.4M luxury tax cost- a big plus for the Sox but not the Braves)

 

What would it take to get both of these guys?

 

Would you offer 3 from Swihart, Devers, Basabe, Kopech or Lakins?

 

If so, which 3?

 

Or is there another offer they may prefer?

 

 

Im guessing they would take Swihart as the main piece because they have nothing at catcher worth talking about now, or in the future. Swihart would be a big catch for them for the future. Maybe add Kopech and a guy in the15-20 range or a Pat Light type. Needs work but can throw 100.

We would have that extra pen arm and starter. Hate losing Swi, but I have a feeling hes the most expendable on this team out of the young players.

[S5Dewey]

Im guessing they would take Swihart as the main piece because they have nothing at catcher worth talking about now, or in the future. Swihart would be a big catch for them for the future. Maybe add Kopech and a guy in the15-20 range or a Pat Light type. Needs work but can throw 100.

We would have that extra pen arm and starter. Hate losing Swi, but I have a feeling hes the most expendable on this team out of the young players.

 

This makes good sense to me. These are they guys I want to trade, the players who are essentially blocked and the prospects. The blocked ones because .... they're blocked! and in the case of Swihart he's too good to be a backup catcher anyway, and the prospects because so many prospects don't pan out. If we can get someone to trade a known quantity, especially with a big upside, for a few prospects I'll usually do it.

[southpaw777]

This makes good sense to me. These are they guys I want to trade, the players who are essentially blocked and the prospects. The blocked ones because .... they're blocked! and in the case of Swihart he's too good to be a backup catcher anyway, and the prospects because so many prospects don't pan out. If we can get someone to trade a known quantity, especially with a big upside, for a few prospects I'll usually do it.

 

Check ur pms...make sure i did it correctly

[User Name]

Don't believe in Teheran, I'd go after someone else.

[S5Dewey]

Check ur pms...make sure i did it correctly

 

Nope, got nothing. Follow your intuition. PM's are relatively easy here.

[SoxnCycles]

Don't believe in Teheran, I'd go after someone else.

 

Yup, having never pitched in the AL, I'm not sure how well he'd do against the AL East.

[User Name]

Yup, having never pitched in the AL, I'm not sure how well he'd do against the AL East.

 

I don't like his mechanics or demeanor. That is, of course, just personal opinion, and I am in no way, shape or form a talent evaluator, scout, or biomechanical expert.

[Dojji]

I've changed my mind on Ervin Santana. He's still providing average production by ERA+ (101 exactly) but I crunched some numbers and realized he's only going 5 1/3 innings per start. Yuck. That's exactly what we don't need right now. I'll look around the league and see if I can finger a better trade target.

 

However, I'm not positive we're in the market for an SP right now. Our rotation is Wright-Price-Porcello-ERod-Kelly, and that's a decent rotation from top to bottom, the only guy I'd want to replace had a good start recently enough that I want to go through the rotation with him a couple more times before we pull the trigger on anything. With E-Rod having a great first start of the year last night the urgency factor goes way down. Hopefully this rotation can stick it out until something starts to perculate in the minors by way of an obvious replacement starter.

[Palodios]

Teheran certainly isn't worth the value Miller got... And clearly neither was Miller. It still seems like the big dollar trades make more sense for this team right now.

 

James Shields got smacked around yesterday for 10 runs in 2 IP. Maybe that will stabilize his trade value for a few weeks.

[Slasher9]

I've changed my mind on Ervin Santana. He's still providing average production by ERA+ (101 exactly) but I crunched some numbers and realized he's only going 5 1/3 innings per start. Yuck. That's exactly what we don't need right now. I'll look around the league and see if I can finger a better trade target.

 

However, I'm not positive we're in the market for an SP right now. Our rotation is Wright-Price-Porcello-ERod-Kelly, and that's a decent rotation from top to bottom, the only guy I'd want to replace had a good start recently enough that I want to go through the rotation with him a couple more times before we pull the trigger on anything. With E-Rod having a great first start of the year last night the urgency factor goes way down. Hopefully this rotation can stick it out until something starts to perculate in the minors by way of an obvious replacement starter.

 

we better be in the market for a TOTR starter. this is a playoff team. this is exactly the situation to trade prospects for an arm to get a parade.....

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

Teheran certainly isn't worth the value Miller got... And clearly neither was Miller. It still seems like the big dollar trades make more sense for this team right now.

 

James Shields got smacked around yesterday for 10 runs in 2 IP. Maybe that will stabilize his trade value for a few weeks.

 

Which Miller?

[Palodios]

Which Miller?

 

Shelby.

[sk7326]

Teheran and Miller are your controllable upside guys. Both have pitched very well and are young ... always risk coming into the division, and as always, price matters.

 

James Shields is possible too. Now, while I did not like him as a premium FA signing - he does have AL East experience, and is a good bet to at least provide some solid bulk. I would not give up much, but there is a solid case for him.

 

Some guys I think Dombrowski will be watching as the season unfolds:

 

Anibal Sanchez - who has been awful so far, but has been good before and might be a buy low opportunity.

 

Personally, the interesting guy to me if you want to take a plunge, use some prospect inventory and really go for it ... is Justin Verlander. Yes, he is on the other side of the mountain - but his fundamentals have not changed all that much - and if the Tigers slip further off the pace, it doesn't hurt to ask.

[Dojji]

we better be in the market for a TOTR starter. this is a playoff team. this is exactly the situation to trade prospects for an arm to get a parade.....

 

I'm looking around and the closest I see to that guy is Cole Hamels... who plays for another team that still thinks it's in contention. There is no TOTR starter who's likely to be actually available right now.

 

I'll remind you that the Royals just won the world series without a true TOTR starter. Yordano Ventura and Edinson Volquez are both decent pitchers, probably not quite up to the level Price is capable of, or the level Wright has displayed so far. We have better starting pitching, right now, than last year's World Champs.

 

The Royals won with speed, defense, alert baserunning and a very strong bullpen. Other teams have won in other ways. It's not always the ace that gets you through in the playoffs. The Mets did in fact have an ace, and the Royals beat him cleanly despite a momumental effort thanks in part to a series of defensive breakdowns in late innings.