Just for fun - great Sox postseason relief performances

[Bellhorn04]

But a closer will never have the same impact in the season or postseason as an ace starter, and that translates to the position being overrated. You can win with a mid-tier closer and a couple good setup arms, you can't without a trio of truly dependable starters. The people who created the WAR formula know and understood this, and that's why relief pitchers are, overall, not as valued as starters. and they should not be.

 

And yet in last year's World Series the team with the weak rotation and strong bullpen beat the team with the strong rotation and weak bullpen.

[Dojji]

Starters are more important over the long season, the bullpen can be critical over a short sprint if it gets hot, and an even more critical problem if, as with Familia last year, it gets cold.

[User Name]

And yet in last year's World Series the team with the weak rotation and strong bullpen beat the team with the strong rotation and weak bullpen.

 

Bullpen. Not just closer. The point stands.

 

Teams have won the WS in the last decade with on-the-fly closers, rookies, middle-tier closers, you name it.

[User Name]

Starters are more important over the long season, the bullpen can be critical over a short sprint if it gets hot, and an even more critical problem if, as with Familia last year, it gets cold.

 

The Mets's D did him no favors though.

[Bellhorn04]

Bullpen. Not just closer. The point stands.

 

Teams have won the WS in the last decade with on-the-fly closers, rookies, middle-tier closers, you name it.

 

And last year a team won the WS with a crappy starting rotation.

[User Name]

The front four of the Royals posted the following ERA's:

 

Ventura (who was injured during much of the first half): 3.56

Young: (Who basically became a full time starter during the second half): 3.00

Volquez: 3.90

Cueto: 4.76

 

Other than Cueto, the Royals had a dependable front three entering the playoffs. The narrative around the Royals' rotation sucking is hyerbole. Also, you're moving the goalposts. I said myself a team can be carried by a deep, reliable BP, but that only lessens the importance of the closer, it does not magnify it. Again, closers are overrated.

[Kimmi]

No adoration here. I just wish the man got half the respect he earned.

 

Papelbon deserves the respect of being a very good closer for a long time. He is still effective in closing out the games, which is the ultimate goal, though he has been less efficient in getting the job done than Koji is. If we didn't have Kimbrel, I'd take Pap back, aside from his large contract.

 

For me, it's not a matter of not having respect for Pap. For me, it's the belief that paying $15 million a year for a closer is ridiculous, when you can get the same production for a lot, lot less.

[Kimmi]

High fives and hugs. That's why we love him. The attitude and his success.

 

Paps never had a fun loving attitude and always came across as douchey.

 

I don't know about that. Paps was very fun loving in his postseason celebrations. Dude was a whack job.

[User Name]

Papelbon deserves the respect of being a very good closer for a long time. He is still effective in closing out the games, which is the ultimate goal, though he has been less efficient in getting the job done than Koji is. If we didn't have Kimbrel, I'd take Pap back, aside from his large contract.

 

For me, it's not a matter of not having respect for Pap. For me, it's the belief that paying $15 million a year for a closer is ridiculous, when you can get the same production for a lot, lot less.

 

How much did Wade Davis make last year again?

[Bellhorn04]

OK let me try this. The closer position is overrated, not because it isn't important, but because it isn't that much more important than the guys who pitch the 7th and the 8th. To win games in the modern era you need to have a good 'late inning unit' of 3 pitchers (4 if you're really stacked). Starting pitchers average 6 innings, so bullpens are pitching roughly one third of the innings.

 

A late inning unit of 3 guys will total 180 to 200 innings over the course of the season. But in general these will be very crucial innings, because they will typically only be used when the team is ahead after 6 innings, or tied - games that the team has a high probability of winning if the unit puts up 3 zeroes, or maybe 1 run.

[User Name]

Well yeah, that's all I've been saying. The Royals themselves are an excellent example of this.

[Bellhorn04]

Well yeah, that's all I've been saying. The Royals themselves are an excellent example of this.

 

I think the light bulb finally went on for me.

[sk7326]

And last year a team won the WS with a crappy starting rotation.

 

They did - but it was augmented with the bullpen as you noted, but also a phenomenal defense which allowed the starters to play up. Their starters are not terrible, but yes not that much better than the Red Sox were wheeling out there, but they took advantage of their ballpark and their fielders.

[sk7326]

The Mets's D did him no favors though.

 

Indeed - that was the real story of that WS. The Mets ran into a team which never struck out and just put balls in play and forced a shaky infield defense to make plays, and they whiffed at key times.

[a700hitter]

Indeed - that was the real story of that WS. The Mets ran into a team which never struck out and just put balls in play and forced a shaky infield defense to make plays, and they whiffed at key times.

And the Mets manager gave away 2 games.

[iortiz]

Uehara has been unambiguously better than Papelbon over the last three years. even with 15 fewer IP over the comparable three year span.

 

Aside 2013, Kioji is a nobody as a closer sk. That's the point. i.e He is a one hit wonder in terms of music, you are comparing the beatles with a these days rapper.

[iortiz]

Papelbon deserves the respect of being a very good closer for a long time. He is still effective in closing out the games, which is the ultimate goal, though he has been less efficient in getting the job done than Koji is. If we didn't have Kimbrel, I'd take Pap back, aside from his large contract.

 

For me, it's not a matter of not having respect for Pap. For me, it's the belief that paying $15 million a year for a closer is ridiculous, when you can get the same production for a lot, lot less.

Getting the job done for a closer could be translated as SV% and durability (IPs), right? If so, I don't think you are right kimmi.

[iortiz]

I think you guys are underrating Pap's consistency and durability through 11 Y as a closer. You don't find that in trees, and this is why Pap got that contract which was earned fairly.

[User Name]

Jesus, Papelbon's just not that good anymore. Deal with it.

[iortiz]

LOL!, Yes he is, He still save a lot of games, most of them when he is on the mound, actually.

[sk7326]

LOL!, Yes he is, He still save a lot of games, most of them when he is on the mound, actually.

 

Yes he will. And so will a dozen others. A team that has a one run lead entering the 9th with nobody on is expected to bring that game home >80% of the time. (32 saves out of 40 chances for instance) A team that enters that inning-out situation with a 3 run lead is expected to bring it home almost 95% of the time. The closer is almost certainly not adding $15M of win probability to that situation.

[User Name]

Yes he will. And so will a dozen others. A team that has a one run lead entering the 9th with nobody on is expected to bring that game home >80% of the time. (32 saves out of 40 chances for instance) A team that enters that inning-out situation with a 3 run lead is expected to bring it home almost 95% of the time. The closer is almost certainly not adding $15M of win probability to that situation.

 

Overpaid, not that good.

[iortiz]

Yes he will. And so will a dozen others. A team that has a one run lead entering the 9th with nobody on is expected to bring that game home >80% of the time. (32 saves out of 40 chances for instance) A team that enters that inning-out situation with a 3 run lead is expected to bring it home almost 95% of the time. The closer is almost certainly not adding $15M of win probability to that situation.

Dozen? I don't think you are following me sk. The thing is that find a different great closer who can post 90% SV%+ & 65 IP+ every year isn't as easy as you are presenting. For instance, look at this team. Aside Koji who was a one-hit-wonder in 2013, this team has been a failure in this regard since Pap departed. Pap, Kimbrel, Chapman and few others are way safer bets to accomplish these metrics, reason why they are not cheap, mostly Pap, who at the time proved consistency and durability as a closer in the ALE after 6 Y of service (and still in great shape)

 

Also, Pap's contract in a Y basis is not that much as you are presenting, mostly in the last couple of years. The debate at the time was the length, since some thought that he was already finished/was going to fail. Guess what, his performance has spoken by itself since he left Boston, and that sk, is out of question.

Edited March 19, 2016 by iortiz

[Kimmi]

Getting the job done for a closer could be translated as SV% and durability (IPs), right? If so, I don't think you are right kimmi.

 

I think we are agreeing that Papelbon is still a good closer. I agree that he is still effective in that role. I said that Koji was more efficient, meaning that he got the job done quickly. Koji doesn't mess around. What I remember with Papelbon is that there would often be some 9th inning drama before he would eventually get the save.

 

The only issue I have with Paps is his contract. No closer is worth $15 mil a year.

[Dojji]

15 mil a year is half what the top starting position players and SP's are making. Many closers are worth half the going rate for position and and rotation all stars. When top stars made $20M, you paid top closers $8-12M. Now top stars go for 30M, the same ratio applies.

 

Salary inflation is a thing, Revenues are up across the board and that will have an impact in what you pay your talent when contract time comes along. Holding to an old paradigm without taking the time to rationally consider whether it may be oudated, will just set you up for sticker shock.

[Bellhorn04]

To be precise, Paps last contract had an AAV of 12.6 million including the vested option year.

[Dojji]

In other words right in line with the salary inflation the entire league has been experiencing since the media money started really pouring in. Some of you guys are stuck in a salary paradigm that's 2 decades old by now.

[User Name]

Except that, compared to other, more effective closer (and that's the measuring stick that should be used, not some arbitrary comparison to another position) Papelbon is overpaid. There's just no spinning it.

[Dojji]

Yes, clearly the fact that other top closers are cost controlled due to lack of MLB experience and Papelbon is not has any bearing at all on this discussion

[User Name]

The average salary for closers last year was right around 4.5 million dollars. Papelbon made nearly triple that, while posting the 83rd highest dollar value per Fangraphs. So he made triple what an average closer makes, but was 83/137 in dollar value amongst relievers, not just closers. That is literally the definition of being overpaid. There's just no way to spin it.