2016 Off Season Thread

[Spudboy]

I've learned that you never count the Yankees out on anyone, no matter what they say.

 

They are like a predator lying in the weeds, ready to pounce when least expected.

 

Yup. Any real Sox fan feels this way.

[jacksonianmarch]

Nova is kinda like Buch. At their best, Buch is better, but the same problems with health apply. The issue with Nova has mainly need his elbow, though, and that should be fixed, whereas Buch has been out with all sorts of ailments

[Meh]

I wouldn't trade Nova since no one is going to give us value for him. I think he comes out strong this year and wants that money in a contract year. I'd be okay with him as the 5th starter.

[jacksonianmarch]

Me too. I think he hasn't been truly healthy in 3-4 years. Now he is. We have redundancy, but at his best, he's a 3 win pitcher. That has a lot of value on this team

[Kimmi]

Me too. I think he hasn't been truly healthy in 3-4 years. Now he is. We have redundancy, but at his best, he's a 3 win pitcher. That has a lot of value on this team

 

Kind of like Buchholz and his 3.2 WAR last year.

[jacksonianmarch]

He is similar to Buch in his frequent DL trips. Where he isn't similar is the types of injuries. Clay has had shoulder, elbow, back and esophageal issues whereas Nova has mainly had elbow trouble. That it took this long to perform TJS baffles me. He should be fully healthy come ST

[Meh]

Damn if Happ got 3/36, Nova is an easy QO if he puts up halfway decent numbers. I think I'd hold onto him, unless we get an offer too good to pass up.

[Meh]

Article stating Tigers could be interested in Gardner. http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb-news/4662292-mlb-rumors-five-potential-fits-in-tigers-outfield-yoenis-cespedes-brett-gardner-jason-heyward

 

I went to look at the Tigers team and wow it's a mess. Even with Zimmerman. Their payroll is upwards of 155-160 million already and they have so many holes in their team. I'd deal Gardner for Norris but I doubt the Tigers would. Their farm system is horrible. Alex Wilson would be nice, but I wouldn't deal a lot to get him and if the Tigers traded him their bullpen would need major work still.

[jacksonianmarch]

Why the hell would you deal a perennial 3WAR OFer for a young, unproven pitcher when we are chock full of unreliable young options with higher ceilings?

[jacksonianmarch]

We have plenty of young starters with upside. We need a 200IP starter capable of leading the staff. Think about it Meh.

 

Tanaka, Severino, Pineda, Eovaldi, Nova, Warren, and Mitchell. Most teams would love to have this problem. The thing we need is a guy like CC from 6 years ago. We need a staff leader who can be relied upon. This usually trickles down to the rest of the staff and helps develop other guys along the way. Consider it an investment in the now and the future

[Meh]

I think you're over valuing Garnder and I'm under valuing him. It'll be an interesting GM meeting though, I think Cashman pulls off two moves during that time.

[jacksonianmarch]

Gardner seems like he is hurt a lot, but he has played 145 games or more in 5 of the last 6 seasons. His WAR has been 3.3 or higher in 5 of the last 6 yrs as well, peaking at 7.0 in 2010 and at a low of 3.3 in 2015. He is adequately transitioning from a speed first slap hitter to a patient power-ish hitter all the while playing GG defense in LF. He still steals 20+ bases. He has hit 33HR the last 2 seasons. The guy is signed to a pretty nice deal paying him $13 mil a yr for the next 3 seasons with an option year for a 4th. His value the past 3 seasons has been $25.3 mil, $25.9 mil, and $20.4 mil. The guy has a LOT of value. He wont get us what we really need, which is a innings eating ace, but he could be the headliner of a deal for one

[Meh]

Once the Dodgers resign Grienke, I'd call up the Giants and discuss any of our pitcher with them sans Servino.

[jacksonianmarch]

For who? Who would you target?

 

The only guy I'd go after on SF is Bumgarner and he ain't moving. Our offense is what it is. We have to subtract to add. To this point, there's no deals that are hot.

 

We have a surplus of young, high ceiling pitching. We haven't seen anything like this before. At the same time, we don't have a David Price. We don't have an ace. We need a guy who can lead this rotation and be reliable. We don't need more wild cards. We need a stopper, a 200IP stopper. If we cannot afford or deal for one, then adding more inexperienced pitching isn't necessary. We are flush with options. We are flush with ace ceiling options. We just don't have an ace right now. We have 4 guys who missed time with elbow issues in 2015 (Eovaldi, Nova, Pineda, Tanaka). What are the chances all 4 don't need surgery? Probably low. We have 7 legit big league options if you include CC. We just don't have a CC from years past. If we can't get one, then you hold pat with what we have

Edited December 2, 2015 by jacksonianmarch

[jacksonianmarch]

Maeda posted. I'd jump at him immediately

[Meh]

Maeda posted. I'd jump at him immediately

Diamondbacks will blow their load on him and could see the Dodgers and Giants in on him as well.

 

Guy looks like Igawa II

Edited December 4, 2015 by Meh

[User Name]

Diamondbacks will blow their load on him and could see the Dodgers and Giants in on him as well.

 

Guy looks like Igawa II

 

Where, and how, did you come up with that?

[Meh]

Where, and how, did you come up with that?

 

Both had great command, both throw 90 mph. Igawa touched 94, Meada touches 95. Both have average change ups, and both rarely throw their sliders. Igawa was a lefty though.

[jacksonianmarch]

When Igawa came over the NY, he couldn't touch 90. Maeda doesn't have the world's best splitter like Tanaka does, but he has just as good if not better command. Maeda doesn't have the power Tanaka did when he came over either. Regardless, he's young (27) and has proven he can shut down good offenses in international play and has dominated in Japan. He will translate well. My only concern as it is with all Japanese pitchers of shorter stature (he's 6'0") is if he will break down

[User Name]

Did you actually check their respective stats before making that comment? I'm guessing no, because Igawa is not even in the same planet as Maeda as far as the ability to throw strikes and limiting walks and hits is concerned.

 

Igawa had a 1.26 WHIP and 2.9 BB/9 in his career in Japan.

 

Maeda has a 1.04 career WHIP and a 1.9 BB/9 in his career.

[User Name]

The above post was for Meh, not Jacko.

[jacksonianmarch]

Maeda will translate well. I just don't think he's going to be an ace

[jacksonianmarch]

Now that most of the names have come off the board, I doubt we see Cueto in pinstripes. My guess is he ends up in the NL somewhere. Regardless, without a deal, we are stuck where we are. We have a ton of talent, a ton of NOW talent. The problem is, we don't have now durability.

 

Starting with Severino, I think he will end up being the ace of the staff come the end of the season. His AVERAGE FB velocity was 95+ last yr with a 90 mph slider and 88mph change. His stuff is filthy, and for a kid his age, his command is solid. Health is obviously the big issue, but he eclipsed 150IP and should be on a rather high innings limit for 2016. The major drawback with him is that he is so young. Even some of the best pitchers had their bumps early, so while I think he ends up being the staff ace at year's end, I think he had some months where he is less than desirable

 

Tanaka is probably the ace going into the season, but something changed with him last yr. He tried to change his identity coming into April and after getting shellacked, he reverted back to form. One year further from the elbow scare and we will either see one of two things. Either he rips it in ST or he should go into the yr with a mostly healthy elbow. The reason why I am not convinced he finishes the season as the ace is mostly because he may end up finishing the season recovering from elbow surgery. While he has given us over 3WAR each year in NY, he hasn't given more than 24 starts. I really hope he gives us a healthy season, although I think the chances of that are 50:50 at best

 

Michael Pineda gave us 27 starts last yr, but he clearly wasn't right when he came back from his forearm injury. The guy has the talent of a superstar yet the body of a 40 yr old. His pre-all-star numbers were fabulous. 111-13 K/BB with a mid 3 ERA. He just cannot seem to stay healthy. I am concerned about his elbow also. The guy who was pitching in Sept and October was not the guy who started the yr. If his elbow is healthy, then we are good to roll him out there. He has ace potential every time he takes the mound. I am concerned if he can stay healthy though

 

Nathan Eovaldi gained a full mph on his fastball and is consistently atop the list of hardest throwing starters in baseball. This yr he demonstrated significant improvement in his slider and at time a devastating splitter. He also regressed a little on the control front, but saw his K rate rise to a career high. He also was dominant post all star game posting nearly a strikeout per inning and an ERA in the 3's. Normally, I'd be over the moon about a 25 yr old showing the progress he did and with the stuff he has, but he also ended the season on the shelf with elbow tightness. They say he would have made the ALDS roster if NYY made it, but take it for what it is. He is another injury ??? coming into 2016.

 

Adam Warren was our best starting pitcher early on and then he went on to be a lights out pen guy. He carries solid velocity into his starts and improved until the point where Nova returned. It remains to be seen what role he starts the yr in, but I have faith in him staying healthy more than the guys above this list. But his flexibility and capability to be lights out out of the pen makes it more likely he starts there for 2016

 

Ivan Nova is a major wild card. They say starters don't regain their feel and stuff until about 18 months after surgery. Nova recovered nearly 2mph on his fastball after surgery. He should be completely healthy come this season. He was highly inconsistent in his return yr and now he is healthy and in the final yr of arb. While he is no sure bet to stay healthy, he is a sure bet to be motivated.

 

That is 6 options before CC. And after CC, we have Mitchell who has starting experience and stuff beyond his years. We are entering the yr with 8 legit starting pitchers, and none who are surefire bets to be there at the end of the season. It will be interesting, that is for sure

[a700hitter]

The Yankees are reportedly on discussions with the Cubs for Starlin Castro possibly for Gardner.

[jacksonianmarch]

Theyre saying no Gardner. I wouldn't deal Gardner for Castro. I am all for getting Castro, but with him being in position limbo last yr, he wasn't very good. He is also being paid like a starting 2b as well. If we get him, we shouldn't have to give up more than a Heathcott/Williams type and a C level pitching prospect assuming we eat the contract or straight up for a Refsnyder type player.

 

That being said, I like the idea of getting Castro. The guy still plays good D as a SS, which means he should translate well to 2b. And his bat has been excellent at times and maddening at others. His 2014 season was solid with a near .800OPS. His first half of 2015 was abysmal, but he got back to his .750+OPS ways after the ASB. He can run, although he doesn't run as much as he used to. He also would be a good right handed bat to add to a team full of lefties. And it isn't like he's old, he is only 25 and should be coming into his physical prime. Per fangraphs he was worth $6+ mil and is being paid a shade under $9 mil a year, so not a huge dropoff. If we can get him, give him the keys to 2b and let him work his way at the bottom of the order, we might see something solid out of him. Also, by getting him, we can have an insurance policy on Didi in case his breakout 2015 campaign turns into a mirage

[jacksonianmarch]

I am also wondering if getting Castro is part of a bigger plan. Ackley played 2b when Drew went out with suckassitis/concussion, but he has been known as a middling defensive 2b. That being said, Ackley hit the f*** out of the ball after getting out of the deathtrap in Seattle. He plays a decent OF (prior to his terrible 2015 numbers) as well. Initially, I thought the platoon would be Refsnyder and Ackley at 2b, but I am wondering if the platoon will be Ackley and Hicks in LF with Hicks acting as the 4th OFer/Beltran caddy on days a righty starts. At least that would be the plan should a deal with Upton or Heyward fall through

[jacksonianmarch]

No, no, no, no! I just read that the Cubbies are asking for Adam Warren for Castro! You have to be out of your f***ing mind! Warren has been the balls for us both in the rotation and the pen. With how many question marks we have in our rotation, subtracting one of our most durable options is not a good idea. I'm all for moving Warren if we get a pitcher. Not a SS/2b guy without a position in Chicago. If Theo gets Warren for Castro in a straight up deal, I would wonder if he would give Cashman the common courtesy of a reacharound

[a700hitter]

Zpbrist to the Cubs. The Cubs will have to move a middle infielder. Let's wait for the next shoe to drop.

[a700hitter]

The other shoe has dropped. We don't know who the Yankees are trading.

Yankees, Cubs Agree To Starlin Castro Trade

 

By Steve Adams | December 8, 2015 at 6:54pm CST

 

The Yankees and Cubs have agreed to a trade that will send Starlin Castro to New York, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted seconds prior to Sherman’s report that the two sides were closing in on a deal. Sherman adds that the trade is pending medical reviews.

[User Name]

Castro deal has been agreed upon, but the players going from the Yanks to the Cubs have not been announced.