2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[Kimmi]

I think people have been more optimistic after seeing Fangraphs' 92 win projection. Seriously.

[cp176]

I don't think the past rumors about Hanley were made up. I believe that there was some truth to them. But I also believe people can change. Maybe it's maturity, maybe it's being around Ortiz, maybe it's a real desire to play in Boston. Or maybe he hasn't changed and he has a terrible work ethic and a terrible attitude.

 

With no evidence of the latter being the case, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

I understand where you are coming from now. I actually feel about the same way that you do about him. I hope that it works out. In terms of importance to this years team, who he is and how he plays is going to be very significant.

[mvp 78]

Well, that is certainly not the impression that I have gotten from many posters. There has been talk of us hovering around .500. There has been talk of us still being another year away from contending. There has been talk of us needing another top starter in order for us to contend. There has been talk of us having far too many question marks to contend.

 

I'm not getting that warm, fuzzy feeling from a lot of people here.

 

I really haven't noticed anyone saying that they'd hover around .500. Even A700 believes this team should be in the upper 80's. Now, they COULD hover around .500 as they have done so more often than not in the previous 4 years, but I think most of us believe this team will be better this year. I honestly think a lot of the quibbling has been between the difference of a WS contender and a team fighting for the playoffs.

 

This team should be good, but would have a much better chance if they had found that second starting pitcher.

 

Kimmi, you should create a poll and see where people project the team to wind up in the win column. I think we have done those in the past.

[mvp 78]

I think people have been more optimistic after seeing Fangraphs' 92 win projection. Seriously.

 

Don't you mean their 82 - 102 win projection?

[cp176]

Don't you mean their 82 - 102 win projection?

 

That's what I am talking about right there. That is projection protection at its best. I think that this team could wind up being a .500 team but I don't think that they will have to work hard to get there. I really think that anything less than 85 wins will be disappointing.

[jung]

Good point CP as that is what I mean in chiding those that insist on last years nonsense that the AL East is somehow weak or hoo-hum. Its not. It is still relatively strong compared to the rest of the AL. There is really only one team that tips the scales partially the other way and they are the Royals. That said the one aspect of AL East strength that is in part fabricated is the Yanks in that shoe box. I mean it...the place should be banned from baseball. IMO all they have to do is be a threat is keep their left handed power upright and out of the old age home and that is a travesty.

[mvp 78]

That's what I am talking about right there. That is projection protection at its best. I think that this team could wind up being a .500 team but I don't think that they will have to work hard to get there. I really think that anything less than 85 wins will be disappointing.

 

.500 is possible (81 wins), but it's just as likely that they'd end up with 103 wins. Just saying.

[cp176]

.500 is possible (81 wins), but it's just as likely that they'd end up with 103 wins. Just saying.

 

I don't disagree with that at all. Well - maybe just a little. 103 would give me the quivers. I see them at worst an 81 win team. At best - who knows. If everything works out well, they could be very good. If things don't go well early, and DD tells Farrell to make the necessary adjustments without letting him wait until July to do it, I think that we could still be very good.

[a700hitter]

If Farrell doesn't bring this team in with at least a .500 record, I will protest outside of Fenway Park every day with a bullhorn demanding that Farrell be discharged.

[a700hitter]

The first telecast will be February 29th

NESN announces plans to broadcast 16 Red Sox spring training games

By Chad Finn

Boston.com Columnist | 01.22.16 | 2:13 PM

 

The NFL season is approaching its pinnacle, and the Patriots, as usual, are right there in the championship hunt.

 

But it won’t be too long before attention turns to baseball. Red Sox pitchers and catchers report to spring training in less than a month, with the first workout in Fort Myers, Fla., scheduled for Feb. 19.

 

With that date approaching, NESN revealed its spring training coverage plan, which includes 16 live game broadcasts, the most the network has offered in more than a decade.

 

NESN will begin its game telecasts on Monday, Feb. 29 with the annual exhibition doubleheader in which the Red Sox play Boston College and Northeastern. Coverage begins at 1 p.m.

 

Other schedule highlights include two games with the Yankees—a Sunday, March 5 matchup in Tampa (1 p.m.), and then on Tuesday, March 15, the AL East rivals will meet in the annual Red Sox Foundation game (6 p.m.), a broadcast that will feature limited commercial interruptions.

 

The Red Sox visit the National League champion Mets at their Jupiter, Fla., complex on March 20 (1 p.m.). They will close out spring training with exhibition game broadcasts versus the Blue Jays at Olympic Stadium in Montreal on Friday, April 1 (7 p.m.), and Saturday, April 2 (1 p.m.).

 

Color analyst Jerry Remy is scheduled to work all 16 spring training broadcasts as he begins his 29th season on NESN. He will be joined by Dave O’Brien, who replaces Don Orsillo on NESN’s broadcasts after nine season in the Red Sox radio booth.

 

Tom Caron will fill in on play-by-play when O’Brien misses spring games due to ESPN commitments.

 

Guerin Austin returns as the primary Red Sox sideline reporter. She will alternate with several other NESN reporters during spring training and the regular season.

[cp176]

If Farrell doesn't bring this team in with at least a .500 record, I will protest outside of Fenway Park every day with a bullhorn demanding that Farrell be discharged.

 

As much as I would kind of like to see that, I hope that we don't have to. With Farrell, I just really hope that if things don't go well early, he doesn't just try stay with the same old tired ********. I hope that he can figure out who his best players are and realize when it is time to give up on certain experiments if the need arises.

[cp176]

hey, also, even though it is slightly off topic, how about Orsillo still not knowing why NESN tossed him.

[a700hitter]

As much as I would kind of like to see that, I hope that we don't have to. With Farrell, I just really hope that if things don't go well early, he doesn't just try stay with the same old tired ********. I hope that he can figure out who his best players are and realize when it is time to give up on certain experiments if the need arises.

I hope not, but I have little confidence in Farrell and his coaches.

[a700hitter]

hey, also, even though it is slightly off topic, how about Orsillo still not knowing why NESN tossed him.

I don't think anyone can make sense of his firing. Maybe if the team has another poor season they will fir the grounds crew.

[jung]

Well Farrell I can somebody not having much confidence in him. But TL made I thought a very respectable showing last year...showed no hesitation in making lineup changes when they seemed called for on the one hand and made decent in game moves on the other.

 

As for Farrell I am kinda' surprises that so many of us see him the same way....just because these are traits that are not that easy to pick up. I agree....he is stubborn as a mule and has this undying faith that career numbers for veteran players will eventually reveal themselves. But he does not seem to be able to overlay onto that where that player he has expectations for is on a given day or in this given year. Hence I am pretty well convinced for example that he will play Hanley and Panda into the ground almost no matter what they are doing as he will see them as the best options he has to achieve wins. I am doubly concerned at least for this year because I am also convinced that DD knows he has to get either Panda or Hanley off this team at some point and in some year and they have to play for him to get that opportunity.

Edited January 23, 2016 by jung

[cp176]

I hope not, but I have little confidence in Farrell and his coaches.

 

I kind of agree with you here but probably because I am a Mainer, I think that Butterfield does a great job working with those infielders. As a third base coach, everyone has their own opinion but as a worker who gets it when it comes to infield play, he is really good I think.

[cp176]

Well Farrell I can somebody not having much confidence in him. But TL made I thought a very respectable showing last year...shown no hesitation in making lineup changes when they seemed called for on the one hand and made decent in game moves on the other.

 

As for Farrell I am kinda' surprises that so many of us see him the same way....just because these are traits that are not that easy to pick up. I agree....he is stubborn as a mule and has this undying faith that career numbers for veteran players will eventually reveal themselves. But he does not seem to be able to overlay onto that where that player he has expectations for is on a given day or in this given year. Hence I am pretty well convinced for example that he will play Hanley and Panda into the ground almost no matter what they are doing as he will see them as the best options he has to achieve wins. I am doubly concerned at least for this year because I am also convinced that DD knows he has to get either Panda or Hanley off this team at some point and in some year and they have to play for him to get that opportunity.

 

Interesting! Loyalty is a value that cannot be under estimated but in Farrell's case, realty should kick in at some point.

[Spudboy]

Pablo is losing it! Some of it anyway...

 

http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/boston-red-sox-manager-john-farrell-says-pablo-sandoval-has-lost-20-pounds

 

Speaking as a fat f*** I can say with authority that 20 pounds on a man that over weight is negligible. Pablo is 40-60 pounds over weight.

 

If he looses 40 or more I will be interested. Otherwise this is just fluff.

[a700hitter]

Speaking as a fat f*** I can say with authority that 20 pounds on a man that over weight is negligible. Pablo is 40-60 pounds over weight.

 

If he looses 40 or more I will be interested. Otherwise this is just fluff.

He can sweat 15 lbs on a hot day.

[User Name]

Speaking as a fat f*** I can say with authority that 20 pounds on a man that over weight is negligible. Pablo is 40-60 pounds over weight.

 

If he looses 40 or more I will be interested. Otherwise this is just fluff.

 

Ha! Bravo!

[Station 13]

pablo loosing weigh is a f***ing cliche at this point. It has become a satire.

[a700hitter]

The Mets retain Cespedes with a one year opt out

Mets To Sign Yoenis Cespedes

 

By Jeff Todd | January 22, 2016 at 10:01pm CST

 

The Mets have reached agreement on a deal with outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, pending physical, according to multiple reports. He’ll earn $75MM over three years and can opt out after one season, per reports, at which time he’ll have earned $27.5MM. The contract is said to include a full no-trade clause.

 

While a return to the Mets has always seemed plausible, it’s also appeared at times to be a long shot. That’s due in large part to the fact that Cespedes seemed destined to land a much greater, longer-term commitment than Sandy Alderson and co. were willing and able to make.

 

With Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson at the corners, and Juan Lagares and recent addition Alejandro De Aza available up the middle, there wasn’t a need, strictly speaking. But Michael Cuddyer’s retirement opened a roster spot and some capital, and the Mets stayed in position as the winter progressed. The team’s payroll, surely, seems destined to move north, but the somewhat surprising World Series run last year and an impressive crop of young pitchers certainly justified such an advance.

 

It remains to be seen what New York will do in crafting an outfield alignment. A trade of Lagares makes some sense at first glance, though it isn’t clear what they’d be looking for in return. And selling low isn’t appealing either. Then there’s the fact that the gifted fielder might be of importance not only down the line, but also in 2016. Granderson could surely stand to avoid left-handed pitching, while Conforto is still somewhat unproven despite an impressive debut. And Cespedes did not look terribly comfortable in center last year.

 

Any way you cut it, the signing looks to represent a major coup for the Mets, who’ll look to defend their NL East title with the man who helped lead them there in the first place. Cespedes, 30, put up a huge .287/.337/.604 slash down the stretch after coming to New York in a deadline deal. Though he dealt with some injuries and wasn’t a major force in the post-season, there’s no question of his impact last year.

 

Looking forward, the Mets will hope that Cespedes can continue to provide top-notch overall value. Though he’s not much of an on-base threat, he’s made huge contributions with his power stroke and high-quality corner outfield defense. To be sure, Cespedes was more solid than great in the two preceding seasons. But with the chance to head back to the open market after the season, he’ll surely have all the incentive necessary to fuel a repeat performance, and the downside here is far less worrisome than those found in many player option scenarios.

 

The reported concept also makes good sense as a fall-back for the Roc Nation client. It certainly carries a high-end annual salary, with the larger portion due up front, though the term does fall well shy of expectations. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes had pegged his earning capacity at $140MM over six years entering the winter. It appeared he’d have a good chance of reaching it after Jason Heyward inked a monster, opt-out-laden $184MM deal with the Cubs and Justin Upton went for six years and $132.75MM to the Tigers.

 

While the overall guarantee pales in comparison to those contracts, Cespedes adds an enormous amount of upside through his own contract. The early opt-out provision means that he’ll have a chance to re-enter the market in just one year’s time in search of yet another big payday. The structure ultimately falls into what we’ve discussed here quite a bit in recent weeks, as a supercharged short-term deal that includes a significant guarantee but cabins the team’s risk and leaves plenty of earning potential for the player.

 

Barring a catastrophe in 2016, it’s hard to imagine that Cespedes won’t hit free agency again next year. There’s an excellent chance he’ll be the top outfielder available next winter in a much less robust market, and he won’t be so old that he won’t be able to cash in.

 

Rosenthal adds that “higher offers” were available elsewhere from multiple clubs (Twitter link). Obviously, we’ll need to learn more about the details before assessing their relative merits, but it appears that Cespedes did indeed put some priority on returning to New York. It seems that several clubs had interest in a pact of this nature, with the Nationals also said to have interest in something like five years and $100MM (possibly including deferred money). That scenario would obviously have conveyed a steeper guarantee, but even with an opt-out provision after two years would have sapped a good portion of the massive earning upside that Cespedes will now enjoy.

 

Ultimately, with what’s been reported thus far, it isn’t surprising that Cespedes chose to take this offer to return to the bright lights of New York. And while there’s plenty of work yet to be done, the Mets will enter the coming season as a popular choice to challenge once again for a trip to the World Series.

 

Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (via Twitter) first said a deal was close. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter) reported the financial details. Jon Heyman first said a deal was done (Twitter links).

[mvp 78]

Every offseason, there is a story about Pablo trimming down. Even if he is 30 lbs lighter, he'll just earn it back during the season each time he pulls up to catering. If he hasn't fixed his eating habits by now, he never will.

 

I don't care about his weight. He just needs to hit. He's hit well while carrying a larger waist size before. Maybe he just needed a year to adjust to the AL?

[Elktonnick]

Every offseason, there is a story about Pablo trimming down. Even if he is 30 lbs lighter, he'll just earn it back during the season each time he pulls up to catering. If he hasn't fixed his eating habits by now, he never will.

 

I don't care about his weight. He just needs to hit. He's hit well while carrying a larger waist size before. Maybe he just needed a year to adjust to the AL?

 

Even if he hits he is still going to be a defensive liability at 3rd.

[Kimmi]

Speaking as a fat f*** I can say with authority that 20 pounds on a man that over weight is negligible. Pablo is 40-60 pounds over weight.

 

If he looses 40 or more I will be interested. Otherwise this is just fluff.

 

Pablo has always been fat and has always been a pretty good player. It's unrealistic to expect him to suddenly trim down to a point where he's not considered big.

 

That said, the fact that he has lost 20 pounds says something to me about his attitude and his work ethic. For people who have weight problems, losing weight is as difficult as quitting smoking. Pablo at least deserves credit for trying to make amends for last season.

 

From what Farrell has said, Pablo looks good (relatively speaking), and he has really taken his poor play last season seriously. It is not something he is just blowing off. Pablo has been working hard to show fans that he is worth his contract. Kudos to him for his effort.

[jung]

And if Panda only hits from the left side, who cares about a left hand hitter with little power hitting into one of the biggest right fields in baseball 81 games a season?

 

There is an adjustment to be made both for pitchers and hitters. Pitchers simply cannot depend on FB's in the AL as much as they do in the NL and then hitters cannot expect to see as many FB's over here. But Panda does not swing at many pitches in the strike zone anyway. He swings and gets most of his hits on pitches outside the zone, either a bit out of it or way out of it. FB's outside the zone are tough to hit and thus many of his hits come on off-speed, breaking stuff outside the strike zone. So to be honest I would have thought he less likely to have been effected by an NL/AL switch than most hitters.

 

I hate to say it but I take most of my hope for Panda from the opinion that for him it is literally all about the weight. I am a bit surprised that the colossal failure of 2015 did not suggest to him a complete course correction. But there is no accounting for how stubborn someone can be about their right to keep on keepin' on.

[Kimmi]

Even if he hits he is still going to be a defensive liability at 3rd.

 

You don't know that. He has never been a defensive liability until last season. He has always been average to above average defensively. Last year was a fluke.

[jung]

Yea it was a fluke. A near 300 lb man shorter than 6' got from 1st to home in one extended run without having a heart attack right on the field!

 

He is a modest defender at best now hampered by the same thing that hampers everything else Panda....his weight!

[Dojji]

You don't know that. He has never been a defensive liability until last season. He has always been average to above average defensively. Last year was a fluke.

 

Umm no, according to Baseball Reference Sandoval has been hovering around replacement level defensively for most of his career, and he was below replacement level last year. Combine that with the offensive problems and we would have been better off going with Brock Holt as our everyday 3B

[Elktonnick]

You don't know that. He has never been a defensive liability until last season. He has always been average to above average defensively. Last year was a fluke.

 

That's not was his dWAR stats show. He had a-0.9 last year but his dWar in was -1.2 in 09, -0.4 in 13, -0.3 in 12. He was 0.6 in 14, 1.8 in 11 and 0.1 in 10. So that stats show that except for 2011 he was never that much above the mean. Given the trend over the last few years it is a better than average bet that he'll have a negative dWAR in 2016. In any case, defensively speaking one can hardly call 2015 a fluke.