2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[Palodios]

I think Dumbo must be considering a starting pitching upgrade via free agency. The 2017 free agent crop for starters is extremely shallow.

[jung]

You are right...it is really shallow in 2017. Probably stuck with a trade for 2017. Just not sure there is really much of interest of the remaining FA this year that would be better than hoping one of the young guys establishes himself for 2017 or one of the remaining crop of "emergings" from 2015, like Porcello or Kelly make the grade. If DD does see another guy worth bringing in to fill the #2 rotation spot for 2016 great...But what remains from this crop just looks like overpays to duplicate the sort of potential we already have, not solid major market contender #2 timber. In part that is why I think going after one of these guys just digs a deeper financial hole without really buying anything.

 

One of the question marks for 2016 is the whole Swihart/Vaz thing. While it does not look like it pans out before the start of the 2016 season, surely it becomes quite a bit less of a mystery before 2017. So maybe DD squeezes some money from Panda/Hanley and together with the trade value of a package around Swihart..... presto......a rotation 2!

Edited December 27, 2015 by jung

[Dojji]

You know, I really think it might be a good time for Dumbo to toss his hat into the ring and go after Alex Gordon. I was very surprised the man has not been signed yet and we have a need for him

 

Looking at the roster we have a very young, highly unproven outfield, and we'll likely be putting inexperienced players at both corner posts, which I consider less than ideal. it would be a good thing to get a guy like Gordon, who just helped his team win the World Series and is a solid veteran leader, and add him left field. It would diminish the opportunities for Castillo and JBJ but that's OK, I doubt both of them are going to be good next year anyhow, and I really suspect Gordon or no Gordon that we'll be making a play for a corner OF at the deadline regardless. Might as well shore up our depth now to avoid needing to make a desperation trade later.

 

Going left to right Gordon-Betts-JBJ/Castillo would be a very strong outfield and should be well balanced for offense and defense. I think having Alex Gordon, who has a lot of recent playoff experience and is a team leader and someone who would help bring a sense of optimism to the clubhouse, would only help and would probably be worth going over the cap for. Just my .02

[Palodios]

Now that I think of it, the savvy move would be to avoid the expensive free agent pitchers now, and trade low on those same guys next year for Hanley/Pablo.

 

Look at how Shields is being shopped and he had a somewhat decent year -- there might be a deal out there with so many expensive contracts being signed.

[User Name]

You know, I really think it might be a good time for Dumbo to toss his hat into the ring and go after Alex Gordon. I was very surprised the man has not been signed yet and we have a need for him

 

Looking at the roster we have a very young, highly unproven outfield, and we'll likely be putting inexperienced players at both corner posts, which I consider less than ideal. it would be a good thing to get a guy like Gordon, who just helped his team win the World Series and is a solid veteran leader, and add him left field. It would diminish the opportunities for Castillo and JBJ but that's OK, I doubt both of them are going to be good next year anyhow, and I really suspect Gordon or no Gordon that we'll be making a play for a corner OF at the deadline regardless. Might as well shore up our depth now to avoid needing to make a desperation trade later.

 

Going left to right Gordon-Betts-JBJ/Castillo would be a very strong outfield and should be well balanced for offense and defense. I think having Alex Gordon, who has a lot of recent playoff experience and is a team leader and someone who would help bring a sense of optimism to the clubhouse, would only help and would probably be worth going over the cap for. Just my .02

 

Gordon's getting a 100+ million/5 year deal as a 32-year old. No thanks.

[mvp 78]

Now that I think of it, the savvy move would be to avoid the expensive free agent pitchers now, and trade low on those same guys next year for Hanley/Pablo.

 

Look at how Shields is being shopped and he had a somewhat decent year -- there might be a deal out there with so many expensive contracts being signed.

Pablo and Hanley can't be moved for anything of value. If they could get Shields for one of them, the deal would have been done by now.

[jung]

I don't think there is much of any chance of either Panda or Hanley going anyplace this year. Maybe one or the other or both builds back some value through 2016 and gives DD a little room to work with before 2017. They have to rebuild some value though. Neither player is playing anywhere near a place that gives DD somewhere to go with them.

[Bellhorn04]

I think a genuine problem on the money end is that JH is already over the luxury tax cap which is fine...for one year. But stretch that to two and you are really throwing money down a rat hole. They have to get back under again for 2017. That says to me, that the real gamble DD is taking is a hope and prayer that either or both of Hanley and Panda reestablish some value for him to work with allowing him to get out from under some part of their money by 2017 and hopefully set up the team for a serious run in 2017 and 2018. If that gamble does not pay off, every dollar they spend more at this point for 2016, makes it harder to get back under for 2017.

 

The Sox were over the cap in 2015. So 2016 is Year Two.

 

2016 is also the last year of the current CBA.

 

Personally I think John Henry doesn't care so much about the tax cap these days.

[Bellhorn04]

It's not a good thing that we have multiple posters calling Dombrowski Dumbo.

 

It's no different from Francoma or Inepstein.

[Palodios]

Pablo and Hanley can't be moved for anything of value. If they could get Shields for one of them, the deal would have been done by now.

 

Shields isn't a candidate for a bad contract swap because he had a decent year. Midway through the season, Pablo/Hanley could increase their own trade values, or there could be a pitcher who signs this year who quickly needs a change of scenary.

[Palodios]

It's not a good thing that we have multiple posters calling Dombrowski Dumbo.

 

It's no different from Francoma or Inepstein.

 

If he gets us another starter, I'd be happy to call him Double D out of respect.

[jacksonianmarch]

You have $91 mil a year tied up in 4 players, 3 of which sucked last yr. you have almost the exact same amount to fill out the other 21 spots to stay under the tax. Henry is not staying under the tax. By the time one of the big contracts comes off the books, Betts and Bogaerts will be be arb eligible and expensive

[jung]

They will go over but they will also get back under again. Nobody is stupid enough to stay above for multiple years and eat that tax hit. DD needs to have some things fall his way and some players rebuild some value in 2016. He has done this before if the player just gives him a little room to work. He has nothing to work with off of 2015 performances.

[Bellhorn04]

They will go over but they will also get back under again. Nobody is stupid enough to stay above for multiple years and eat that tax hit. QUOTE]

 

They are already set to pay a significant tax bill for 2016, and they don't have a huge amount coming off the books for 2017.

 

My guess is that Henry decided that paying the tax was a lot better than repeated last place finishes.

[Bellhorn04]

If he gets us another starter, I'd be happy to call him Double D out of respect.

 

Maybe it's just me, but I find it depressing when a bunch of people are calling the team's new head of baseball operations names before his first full season has even started. I could understand it if it was June and the team was sucking, but this is December.

[jung]

People have got to give DD a chance for crying out loud. He has already had a better off season than we have had in awhile. Surely he is gambling that Panda and Hanley can recover just enough value to make something possible on one or the other and DD has done this already as long as the player gives him just anything at all to work with. Don't kid yourself. JH knows DD has done this before and he is looking for DD to do it again at some point probably between now and 2017-2018.

 

For Panda it is all about the weight. He has finally reached a point where it owns him. But that also means that if he can keep enough of it off, he will play better again..... Hanley only needs to show something at 1st to open up both leagues as candidates in his case. If not, he will IMO be much tougher to move than Panda. Even if the Sox eventually end up paying big chunks of their salaries, they are making so much that it still would amount to big chunks coming off the books. Castillo is the guy that may not be movable at all and Clark may just never come back to anything going into years where he is about to make serious coin.

 

DD has already likely done enough to pull the team out of the basement. They don't have to be contending for a WS in 2016 to be an interesting, fun team to watch. There is plenty for real baseball fans to enjoy at this point. People who have to see the team legitimately contending for a WS to enjoy their home team are not baseball fans to me. They have to avoid being embarrassing and they have to be on a recognizable path to real contention. Embarrassing does not fly here and they have been that for two years running.

 

Frankly while we see many "forum" comments about what the Sox must do, they have proven time and time again that they can create enough fan interest to keep the rating up and keep the park drawing without being on a path to a championship. Any Sox fan worth his salt has already got to be hooked by the various tasks and challenges they have before them and the questions that must be answered in 2016.

[cp176]

There was certainly too much money invested in players that people hoped would be actually better than they have been last year. Personally though, I think that John Henry cares much more about fielding a winning team than he does about the luxury tax or even the money that has been wasted to a certain extent. I would not be caught off guard if there was still a deal that gets done. I do not think that Swihart's status is necessarily dependent upon Vasquez. If there was an opportunity to secure a top of the line young starter through a trade involving Swihart in a package, I think that you would see him traded. I don't think that he will be given away but his ability to catch and call a game is certainly replaceable for now by using Hanigan and Leon. We could survive without his bat and they are both at present better catchers- imo. They don't represent the future but as a means to an end they do fine.

[cp176]

Maybe it's just me, but I find it depressing when a bunch of people are calling the team's new head of baseball operations names before his first full season has even started. I could understand it if it was June and the team was sucking, but this is December.

 

It isn't just you at all.

[Palodios]

Maybe it's just me, but I find it depressing when a bunch of people are calling the team's new head of baseball operations names before his first full season has even started. I could understand it if it was June and the team was sucking, but this is December.

 

His name is long -- it just happened to be a nickname that stuck.

[Kimmi]

One of the question marks for 2016 is the whole Swihart/Vaz thing. While it does not look like it pans out before the start of the 2016 season, surely it becomes quite a bit less of a mystery before 2017. So maybe DD squeezes some money from Panda/Hanley and together with the trade value of a package around Swihart..... presto......a rotation 2!

 

A couple of months into the season, Dombrowski will have a much clearer idea of what our needs are. Just like last offseason, unless a deal comes along that Dombrowski simply cannot refuse, I think it makes a lot more sense to wait until June/July to make another move.

 

Perhaps our #2-5 pitchers pleasantly surprise us and we don't need another starter. Perhaps Vazquez doesn't recover from his injury and we really need Swihart to catch. Or perhaps Vazquez is everything we hoped he would be, some other contending team suffers a loss with their starting catcher, and we can get a king's ransom for Swihart.

[Kimmi]

Now that I think of it, the savvy move would be to avoid the expensive free agent pitchers now, and trade low on those same guys next year for Hanley/Pablo.

 

Look at how Shields is being shopped and he had a somewhat decent year -- there might be a deal out there with so many expensive contracts being signed.

 

The thing about signing another decent free agent pitcher is that it will cost a draft pick. I don't think it's that dire a need that it warrants giving up our pick.

[Kimmi]

The Sox were over the cap in 2015. So 2016 is Year Two.

 

2016 is also the last year of the current CBA.

 

Personally I think John Henry doesn't care so much about the tax cap these days.

 

I disagree that Henry doesn't care about the cap. The new CBA might be different, but as you know, the penalties get increasingly steeper with each successive year over the cap. With 2016, it's not even so much the tax rate, but the loss of revenue sharing for being over the cap for the second consecutive year. For the Yankees, the last I read was that it amounts to somewhere in the neighborhood of $30 mil a year, on top of the luxury tax penalty. Even for the richest teams, that is no small chunk of change.

[jung]

Well I would think that if that was the thought process, they would have done it by now. Vaz was certainly a question before the winter meetings and he is a question today. Not much has changed and we are now past the off season period that is mostly trade biased. I actually would not mind a trade involving Swihart that brought a solid starter here now as long as his deal went through 2018. Lets face it, MLB likes Swihart. So if the Sox were thinking that way, it would seem it would have been done during the trade biased part of the off season IMO. Hanigan/Leon is even weaker offensively than Vaz/Hanigan if Vaz is healthy and it is certainly weaker than Swihart/Hanigan. If you really do decide to sort of ignore the whole Vaz health question, the only rational I can find for not having moved on Swihart is that the Sox themselves fear that for 2016 they are right on the edge of being irrelevant in the division offensively already with Hanigan/Leon v Swihart/Hanigan possibly being the straw that breaks that particular camel's back. I don't know how many times we have to be hit over the head with our offensive inadequacies in this division to finally realize that this is not a strong offense relative to the other division rivals. Were it not for the ridiculous band box the Yankees play in, I would say the Sox have without doubt caught the 2016 Yanks in that regard but have really not changed that particular dynamic to the other division rivals compared to where they were in 2015. It is not a power lineup and it is not a speed lineup. It is ....a tweener.

 

For example, without question the most interesting aspect of the 2015 offense occurred during that 3-4 week period when JBJ was hitting. We had JBJ batting 8th but mostly 9th in front of Mookie batting lead off and for that period they were right in the middle of everything the Sox were doing offensively. But when the most interesting thing about your offense is your unreliable and mainly ineffective 9 hitter batting in front of your lead off hitter, you have got problems!

 

But as you have probably guessed, I would take interesting and fun to watch in 2016 as long as it:

a) does not include embarrassing

keeps them on track to actually be a serious contender beyond a WC spot for 2017/2018

 

But then again, I am enough of a baseball junkie that I can make an interesting season out of things like seeing how many baseballs clank off of Panda's integrated chest protector or conversely, how much I can correlate lost weight to improved Panda play...how many times Castillo makes plays with his back to the infield vs the number of times he Ole's the ball with his back facing the wall and whether that arm of his makes up for some of his other issues, how many times Hanley forgets how many outs there are, or whether JBJ hits for more than 3 weeks....etc etc. It does not take much for me to be totally engrossed in the season where the Sox are concerned.

[Kimmi]

They are already set to pay a significant tax bill for 2016, and they don't have a huge amount coming off the books for 2017.

 

My guess is that Henry decided that paying the tax was a lot better than repeated last place finishes.

 

I read an article several weeks ago that talked about how it was very realistic for the Sox to get under the luxury tax in 2017 and to more or less stay there, even if Price does not opt out after 3 years. I don't remember the specifics of what the article said, but it made a good argument for why the Sox were able to afford such a mega contract for Price. I have to believe that this is part of the reason why Henry gave the OK for that deal.

[Kimmi]

Maybe it's just me, but I find it depressing when a bunch of people are calling the team's new head of baseball operations names before his first full season has even started. I could understand it if it was June and the team was sucking, but this is December.

 

Dombrowski certainly deserves at least a couple of seasons to see where this team is headed and how things pan out. I think some people (not you) mistake my defense of Ben for a dislike of Dombrowski, which is not the case.

 

I think Dombrowski is a very good GM, though I do think that he's old school and I don't agree with what I perceive his overall philosophy might be. That said, I like the state of the team heading into the season. I think we are contenders, and if the team fails to contend this season, it will not be Dombrowski's fault.

[a700hitter]

It's not a good thing that we have multiple posters calling Dombrowski Dumbo.

 

It's no different from Francoma or Inepstein.

I preferred Boy Blunder and Benny the Boob

[Bellhorn04]

I preferred Boy Blunder and Benny the Boob

 

What about Dumbo?

[Bellhorn04]

I read an article several weeks ago that talked about how it was very realistic for the Sox to get under the luxury tax in 2017 and to more or less stay there, even if Price does not opt out after 3 years. I don't remember the specifics of what the article said, but it made a good argument for why the Sox were able to afford such a mega contract for Price. I have to believe that this is part of the reason why Henry gave the OK for that deal.

 

Well, we'll have to wait and see what happens. But adding Price and Kimbrel sent us considerably farther over the tax threshold than we've ever been.

[a700hitter]

What about Dumbo?

Dumbo is good too. I don't think I started with Benny the Boob in the offseason. I at least waited until Spring Training. People jumped all over me when I used it. Flame wars started. It is interesting that it is already open season on DD, and only you are saying to give him a chance.

[Spudboy]

His name is long -- it just happened to be a nickname that stuck.

 

Then the lazy among us can just type "DD".