2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[Kimmi]

This is the reason why trading prospects for Kimbrel was a good idea.

 

Everyone agrees that we had the chips to trade, and that we needed to use them to acquire top rate pitching.

 

Trading for Kimbrel was a GREAT idea. Giving up the package for him that we did was not.

[a700hitter]

Everyone agrees that we had the chips to trade, and that we needed to use them to acquire top rate pitching.

 

Trading for Kimbrel was a GREAT idea. Giving up the package for him that we did was not.

Only time will tell.

[cp176]

Thank you. People can't whine about losing value from lost prospects and at the same time whine about trading prospects for elite MLB talent. If you have to trade some of them so their value doesn't go to waste, you can't complain when they do, in fact, trade them for established studs.

 

The trick, as I said a few posts ago, is trading away the right guys. It's ok if some of them pan out elsewhere, but generally you want the ones you keep to emerge as really good MLB players.

 

Bummer about Cecchini, but oh well. A team as flush with minor league talent as the Red Sox are going to see some of them flame out and lose their value. It's just how it goes.

 

There are many people who will always want something for nothing . I don't blame them for trying but much of the time you get what you pay for. With respect to the Kimbrel trade, I know a little about 2 out of the 4 . Guerra probably was not going to be playing shortstop in Fenway. Margot may become a solid player as well. We have 3 young outfielders with support in the minor leagues that I think will cover him fine. The question will always be could we have squeezed a little more out of what we had to deal with. Dombrowski is respected throughout the league. He said what he was going to do and he has done it. Henry supports it. I really like what I am hearing about Price as well. He seems genuine. He wants to win. I find his interest in what we have coming in our farm system to be a good sign as well.

[Elktonnick]

Everyone agrees that we had the chips to trade, and that we needed to use them to acquire top rate pitching.

 

Trading for Kimbrel was a GREAT idea. Giving up the package for him that we did was not.

 

How can you say that since you have no way of knowing how those "prospects" will turn out they could all be Will Middlebrooks or Garin Cecchini. Since less than 25% of the so called blue chip prospects turn out to be solid ML performers it was a good deal. Your type of thinking is why Cherrington is out of baseball.

Edited December 5, 2015 by Elktonnick

[User Name]

Or the could be Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts. You don't know that either. You know just as little as anyone else here about how those prospects could develop. You don't have to be a presumptuous, condescending prick about it either, and then play the victim card when people call you out on your BS.

[dupree]

Or the could be Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts. You don't know that either. You know just as little as anyone else here about how those prospects could develop. You don't have to be a presumptuous, condescending prick about it either, and then play the victim card when people call you out on your BS.

Mic Drop!!!

[a700hitter]

Knock it off U.N. Seriously, you are starting to stir s*** again? We don't need it. People here can speak for themselves. His comment wasn't directed to you. Cut it out. I was just about to take you off ignore, and you act like a total dick.

[User Name]

I'll let it be. But you should take your own advice as well. People can speak for themselves.

[a700hitter]

^ On ignore.

[User Name]

Back to baseball:

 

Tracy Ringolsby wrote in a column yesterday that he thought the Red Sox would sign Yoenis Cespedes, as he suspected Dombrowski would go for another one of the guys he acquired (and traded) before last season. He would command a significant amount of dollars, and IMO, is not likely to age well. Signing him, however, would open up a lot of scenarios where the Sox move OF pieces for some more pitching.

 

Thoughts?

[User Name]

^ On ignore.

 

My life is over. I shall commit seppuku.

[Elktonnick]

Knock it off U.N. Seriously, you are starting to stir s*** again? We don't need it. People here can speak for themselves. His comment wasn't directed to you. Cut it out. I was just about to take you off ignore, and you act like a total dick.

 

I have had him on ignore now for so long I am surprised he still posts. Like they say does a tree falling in forest make any noise if there is no one to around to hear it.

[mvp 78]

You dorks don't have enough Christmas cheer!

[Kimmi]

How can you say that since you have no way of knowing how those "prospects" will turn out they could all be Will Middlebrooks or Garin Cecchini. Since less than 25% of the so called blue chip prospects turn out to be solid ML performers it was a good deal. Your type of thinking is why Cherrington is out of baseball.

 

No one knows for sure whether they will become an all star or never play in a major league game. The value of prospects when they are traded is based upon their rankings and their projections. Would you agree that a #1 prospect is worth more in trade value than a #60?

 

I am not an expert on prospects, but if Keith Law and Dave Cameron and every other analyst says that we overpaid in that deal, then we overpaid.

 

It may turn out otherwise, in hindsight, but that doesn't change the fact that we probably could have gotten better value in return for that package.

[Kimmi]

You dorks don't have enough Christmas cheer!

 

They need to turn on their Christmas music and put on their Christmas socks! Life is good!

[mvp 78]

I'm ordering a round of nog for all of them.

[cp176]

Back to baseball:

 

Tracy Ringolsby wrote in a column yesterday that he thought the Red Sox would sign Yoenis Cespedes, as he suspected Dombrowski would go for another one of the guys he acquired (and traded) before last season. He would command a significant amount of dollars, and IMO, is not likely to age well. Signing him, however, would open up a lot of scenarios where the Sox move OF pieces for some more pitching.

 

Thoughts?

 

I think that Cespedes's bat would be an instant improvement to our offense. We still have questions about where the run production is going to come from. I like both JBJ and Castillo from a fielding, speed, potential hitting and attitude perspective. You sign Cespedes and you certainly have some trade chips. I think that Dombrowski and John Henry both want to add one more very solid arm. I think that they will do it. On the negative side, what is Castillo all about? Does he want to be back in Boston? there is some some wheeling and dealing going on and I like it.

[Elktonnick]

No one knows for sure whether they will become an all star or never play in a major league game. The value of prospects when they are traded is based upon their rankings and their projections. Would you agree that a #1 prospect is worth more in trade value than a #60?

 

I am not an expert on prospects, but if Keith Law and Dave Cameron and every other analyst says that we overpaid in that deal, then we overpaid.

 

It may turn out otherwise, in hindsight, but that doesn't change the fact that we probably could have gotten better value in return for that package.

 

This is where we disagree. We needed a closer. Kimbrel was the best available. His price was the four prospects. He may have been expensive but that isn't the same as saying we overpaid. We paid his market price in value. From the Red Sox perspective we gave up prospects who were not in a position to immediately help the big club like Kimbrel could.

 

From my perspective, prospects have no value except in how they help the big club. The Sox needed a closer they got a closer. They only way it was an overpay is if the Sox could have gotten something in addition to Kimbrel for the four. I don't think so, or at least I don't think anything worth talking about.

[User Name]

Oh noez, a700 and Elktonnick don't like me! I shall commit double seppuku. Life isn't worth living anymore.

[User Name]

I think that Cespedes's bat would be an instant improvement to our offense. We still have questions about where the run production is going to come from. I like both JBJ and Castillo from a fielding, speed, potential hitting and attitude perspective. You sign Cespedes and you certainly have some trade chips. I think that Dombrowski and John Henry both want to add one more very solid arm. I think that they will do it. On the negative side, what is Castillo all about? Does he want to be back in Boston? there is some some wheeling and dealing going on and I like it.

 

But if they sign Cespedes, who do they move, and for what pitcher?

[jacksonianmarch]

Even if you deal off the "wrong ones", if what you got in return was phenomenal then the deal was great. You don't want to be on the losing end of a one sided deal. Would you say the deal of Hanley and Anibal for Beckett and Lowell was a dud? Long term maybe, but there is no way you have that 2007 banner up there without it

[jacksonianmarch]

I have a theoretical for the prospect huggers. If Craig Kimbrel saves 4 games in the 2016 world series then precipitously declines while Margot and Guerra go on to be all stars, would it be worth it?

[Elktonnick]

I have a theoretical for the prospect huggers. If Craig Kimbrel saves 4 games in the 2016 world series then precipitously declines while Margot and Guerra go on to be all stars, would it be worth it?

 

There are some who believe Koji is still a viable closer. To me the facts of his age and the nature of his injury make him highly suspect in 2016. That why I think the FO made the right move to shore up the back end of the bullpen first. Kimbrel was the best available. Also the Sox knew they weren't going to get the ace they needed by any trade unless that trade involved prospects plus Betts or Bogaerts.

[Palodios]

I have a theoretical for the prospect huggers. If Craig Kimbrel saves 4 games in the 2016 world series then precipitously declines while Margot and Guerra go on to be all stars, would it be worth it?

 

Personally, my thought is that every trade that inevitably results in a ring is a good trade.

[Palodios]

In another note, I'm surprised by the Samardzija signing. His career looks very similar to Porcello.

 

Porcello 4.39 ERA, 96 ERA+, 1.35 WHIP, 2.67 K/BB in the AL

Shark 4.09 ERA, 96 ERA+, 1.27 WHIP, 2.76 K/BB in the NL

 

In 2015, they both had awful years. ERAs in the 4.90s but they both had career best years in 2014. Porcello trended upward at the end of last year, whereas Shark struggled the whole year.

 

Shark was worth 90 million and the 19th overall draft pick to the Giants. Porcello is a full 3 years younger.

 

What does this all mean? Pitching has become extremely extremely expensive.

[jacksonianmarch]

Porcello at his best is a contact first pitcher. Shark at his best is a strikeout machine power pitcher. Power pitching always costs more, even if you are betting on a rebound

[cp176]

But if they sign Cespedes, who do they move, and for what pitcher?

 

I think that a Cespedes signing makes a package that includes JBJ and Swihart plus a very real possibility. I think that personally I would prefer Castillo in that package as opposed to JBJ but I think that Castillo's contract would make that difficult to do. Now the tough part. Who would we match up with and how much would it take. What about Cleveland? A couple of good young arms up there for sure.

[dupree]

But if they sign Cespedes, who do they move, and for what pitcher?

I don't think another RH bat is needed in this lineup. Cespedes is definite a power bat and would love to have him and a contract around to what Hanley got last year is what he will probably get, some think his value exploded after the World Series but I think a month later when teams are looking at the big picture he will be right around Hanley's deal.

 

As it sits now we are a very RH team. Betts, Bogey, Pedoria, Hanley, Vaz, & Castillo. Add Cespedes and that's 7 out of nine that hit from the right side with Fat Boy and Papi from the left.

 

I just read an article where Henry said he would like to add another arm but not moving core young pitchers. He said nothing about position players. So I'd say the Winter Meetings will see Cespedes go off the board along with Davis within the first two days and with all the power off the board I could see the focus move back to the rotation and bullpen. We still need a shut down LHP out of the pen along with maybe another starting pitcher.

 

I like the idea of going after the Guardians arms but if Tito and company wont let one go then with the current rotation is ok until the All Star break when Bucholtz breaks down. So a pitcher like Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, Henderson Alvarez, or one of Tampa Bays young arms which apparently all other than Archer are being shopped. Other than the young boys throw Lee or Lincecum a one year deal and see if you can get fire in a bottle.

 

I think the Sox are in a position of strength now heading into the Winter Meetings. They got their Ace, Bullpen Help, & 4th OF. So any move DD makes is just an added Bonus.

[Kimmi]

This is where we disagree. We needed a closer. Kimbrel was the best available. His price was the four prospects. He may have been expensive but that isn't the same as saying we overpaid. We paid his market price in value. From the Red Sox perspective we gave up prospects who were not in a position to immediately help the big club like Kimbrel could.

 

From my perspective, prospects have no value except in how they help the big club. The Sox needed a closer they got a closer. They only way it was an overpay is if the Sox could have gotten something in addition to Kimbrel for the four. I don't think so, or at least I don't think anything worth talking about.

 

I think the Sox could have added 2-3 pieces to the package and gotten a starter, which would have been better bang for the buck. Don't forget that on top of the 4 prospects, the Sox are paying Kimbrel an average of $12 mil/yr. Definitely an overpay.

 

Also, it's not a given that the Sox needed a closer. They do still have Koji. I think it was very wise of the Sox to get Kimbrel, but saying they needed a closer is an overstatement.

[a700hitter]

DD needs another couple of quality bullpen arms.