2015 Prospect Mega Thread

[cp176]

Hernandez = .330 with 3 more hits last night.

[mvp 78]

Do we need a SS? Xander seems to be kinda ok.

[cp176]

Do we need a SS? Xander seems to be kinda ok.

 

I think that maybe you are missing my point. I'm pretty sure Hernandez will never play in Boston because he is a ss. In terms of being a "prospect", you can call him fringe if you like. There is no one having a better year than he is in either Pawtucket or Portland. I don't consider that fringe. Margot may become what people think he might. He hasn't just yet. Hernandez is tradeable along with Margot. That is the point - that and I was a little surprised that people had not even heard of the player having the beat season for our franchise at both the AAA and AA levels.

[cp176]

Man this Hernandez kid just doesn't get it. He is a non-legit prospect. He is so far behind the chosen few, that he isn't even on the radar screen. Maybe we will just wind up having to keep him. Leading the league in hitting. 2 for 2 in the All-Star game last night including a dinger. All-Star game MVP! Damn lucky season for this guy!

[a700hitter]

Man this Hernandez kid just doesn't get it. He is a non-legit prospect. He is so far behind the chosen few, that he isn't even on the radar screen. Maybe we will just wind up having to keep him. Leading the league in hitting. 2 for 2 in the All-Star game last night including a dinger. All-Star game MVP! Damn lucky season for this guy!

I thought that the people that criticize us old folk are all about stats, because they don't think we can understand the numbers? The numbers are favoring this kid enough for him to get selected to the All zstar game where he won the MVP, but people are pooh poohing him because of his draft position and some scouting evaluations. Am I getting this right? He wouldn't be the first late round draft choice to defy the odds.

[User Name]

What the hell are you even talking about? You're the first person to s*** on non-prospects(and even some legitimate ones) regardless of how well they do on a given year. I understand CP's enthusiasm for the kid (though I don't share it) but you're just being a hypocrite and a baiting douchebag. Cut that s*** out.

[sk7326]

I thought that the people that criticize us old folk are all about stats, because they don't think we can understand the numbers? The numbers are favoring this kid enough for him to get selected to the All zstar game where he won the MVP, but people are pooh poohing him because of his draft position and some scouting evaluations. Am I getting this right? He wouldn't be the first late round draft choice to defy the odds.

 

Pooh pooing? Who's doing that ... now his .832 OPS for the first half in Portland is almost 100 points higher than his OPS at any level of full season baseball to date, so the Fluke Rule is very much in play. But he deserves to be an Eastern League All-Star, without a doubt. It does not speak to his prospect value of course, as Rick Lancellotti would attest.

[User Name]

Pooh pooing? Who's doing that ... now his .832 OPS for the first half in Portland is almost 100 points higher than his OPS at any level of full season baseball to date, so the Fluke Rule is very much in play. But he deserves to be an Eastern League All-Star, without a doubt. It does not speak to his prospect value of course, as Rick Lancellotti would attest.

 

You are trying to apply logic where logic need not apply.

[sk7326]

Keith Law Updated Top 50 ... http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=4096

 

#8. Rafael Devers

 

The ball flies off Devers' bat, and for a player his size, he's quite agile at third base, also possessing a plus arm. He's only 18 -- younger than seven of the 12 high-school players taken in the first round of last month's Rule 4 (amateur) draft -- yet is already performing reasonably well in low-A.

 

#11 Yoan Moncada

 

It took a while for Moncada to shake off the rust, but his at-bats have improved the past two weeks (small sample size caveats apply) and he's starting to perform more in line with expectations. He's very physical, with power potential from both sides of the plate, showing a better, more direct swing from the left side that should produce more contact and higher-quality contact as well. He's a former shortstop but projects as an above-average defender at second base, where the Red Sox have played him all season, with the possibility he could handle third base as well.

 

#14 Manuel Margot

 

Scouts absolutely adore Margot -- more than one has told me he'd put Margot ahead of Devers and Moncada in Boston's system -- not just because of his tools but because of his instincts, with Margot potentially a plus-plus defender in center who has an excellent eye at the plate. He's already in Double-A and performing well even though he won't turn 21 until after the minor league season ends.

 

#37 Henry Owens

 

Owens has tremendous deception and a grade-70 changeup, but had control woes early in the season, which is trouble for any pitcher but perhaps a little worse for a guy with an average to slightly above-average fastball. He has been throwing more strikes of late, with just 10 walks in his last six starts (40 innings), and should be next in line when a rotation spot opens in Boston.

 

#48 Javier Guerra

 

Guerra is the best prospect to come out of Panama since Carlos Lee, a true shortstop with incredibly easy actions at the position and more potential with the bat than I think even the Red Sox realized when they signed him for $250,000 in 2012. He's a below-average runner, but it doesn't limit his defensive value in any way, while at the plate his main issue is recognizing pitches from left-handers, who've eaten him for lunch so far this year.

[cp176]

Pooh pooing? Who's doing that ... now his .832 OPS for the first half in Portland is almost 100 points higher than his OPS at any level of full season baseball to date, so the Fluke Rule is very much in play. But he deserves to be an Eastern League All-Star, without a doubt. It does not speak to his prospect value of course, as Rick Lancellotti would attest.

 

SK - there were a number of posters who didn't even know who Hernandez is. They have no credibility with me. They don't follow them they just spit out someone else opinions about prospects. I don't claim to know any more than anyone else about these kids but I am very results oriented. A lot of these guys come wrapped in pretty packages. I tend to like the guys who produce whether or not they come with glowing accolades. I truly acknowledge that the people doing the scouting and the ones crunching the numbers are very talented. I just absolutely believe that on occasion they are human and get too hung up in of the "potential" talk just like the rest of us. I do appreciate your posts. I guess I really don't know what a player has to do to tun the heads of the talent searching gurus. Could Hernandez fall flat from here on in? Of course but as of today, no "prospect" is outplaying him at any level.

[cp176]

What the hell are you even talking about? You're the first person to s*** on non-prospects(and even some legitimate ones) regardless of how well they do on a given year. I understand CP's enthusiasm for the kid (though I don't share it) but you're just being a hypocrite and a baiting douchebag. Cut that s*** out.

 

 

I am enthusiastic about this kid but no more than I would be for any minor league player who is having a great season and deserves the "love". I don't know if he will ever truly make it but based on everything I have seen and read, no one else does either. Maybe the Boss was right when he said "believe half of what you hear and none of what you see"!

[User Name]

What are you even talking about? This is a serious question. The argument initially hinged on whether Hernandez was valuable as part of a trade package. What was talked about was industry views and projectability. You are taking what people say and essentially making up a conclusion all by yourself. Just because you're "results oriented" doesn't mean that when discussing a kid as part of a trade another team is going to want him as part of a package because he's hitting well right now. There are several concepts regarding project valuations that you purposefully skip on, yet have the gall to talk about "credibility". What credibility? We're just a bunch of people killing time on a message board. However, you could try to be more informed in your arguments, and not come up with lame-duck arguments like this one.

[a700hitter]

Hey U.N., drop dead.

[cp176]

I thought that the people that criticize us old folk are all about stats, because they don't think we can understand the numbers? The numbers are favoring this kid enough for him to get selected to the All zstar game where he won the MVP, but people are pooh poohing him because of his draft position and some scouting evaluations. Am I getting this right? He wouldn't be the first late round draft choice to defy the odds.

 

 

I just understand results. When I was coaching, I did not cut the best players. I always preferred those who got it done to those who someone thought might get it done.

[cp176]

Keith Law Updated Top 50 ... http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=4096

 

#8. Rafael Devers

 

 

 

#11 Yoan Moncada

 

 

 

#14 Manuel Margot

 

 

 

#37 Henry Owens

 

 

 

#48 Javier Guerra

 

 

Hey - good list - my personal opinion - Guerra would currently move up this list until he gets to a level that he stalls out at. I like him a lot. Based on what he has done this year, he must not play against many lefties.

[cp176]

What are you even talking about? This is a serious question. The argument initially hinged on whether Hernandez was valuable as part of a trade package. What was talked about was industry views and projectability. You are taking what people say and essentially making up a conclusion all by yourself. Just because you're "results oriented" doesn't mean that when discussing a kid as part of a trade another team is going to want him as part of a package because he's hitting well right now. There are several concepts regarding project valuations that you purposefully skip on, yet have the gall to talk about "credibility". What credibility? We're just a bunch of people killing time on a message board. However, you could try to be more informed in your arguments, and not come up with lame-duck arguments like this one.

 

You are right actually. The credibility concept though just comes as a result of a number of people who post here who sound like they know what they are talking about. I did not purposefully skip on any concepts regarding project valuations. I truly admit that I don't know what they are. A debate is good. I like reading other opinions. I also don't mind admitting mistakes.

I liken this to the game of golf - you can have the greatest swing in the world but if you don't get the ball in the cup, you don't make it.

[Palodios]

Hernandez has actually had pretty consistent numbers all year. He's hit around .300 every single month this season -- this isn't a guy who had a hot streak. Age 22 in Portland is about average for major leaguers.

 

That being said, if he's a .700 OPS, average defense shortstop in AA, his ceiling is not that high in the majors.

[cp176]

I agree- I think that his ability to field the position at the next level might be an issue for him. He could make it though. I hope he gets his chance. It's a very good story. We have seen many players with a lot more potential never make it.

[sk7326]

SK - there were a number of posters who didn't even know who Hernandez is. They have no credibility with me. They don't follow them they just spit out someone else opinions about prospects. I don't claim to know any more than anyone else about these kids but I am very results oriented. A lot of these guys come wrapped in pretty packages. I tend to like the guys who produce whether or not they come with glowing accolades. I truly acknowledge that the people doing the scouting and the ones crunching the numbers are very talented. I just absolutely believe that on occasion they are human and get too hung up in of the "potential" talk just like the rest of us. I do appreciate your posts. I guess I really don't know what a player has to do to tun the heads of the talent searching gurus. Could Hernandez fall flat from here on in? Of course but as of today, no "prospect" is outplaying him at any level.

 

I think you are right in some respects here. After all, I've always noted that Potential as a function of Age, Level and Performance is very useful. 22 is not old for AA, and Hernandez has played quite well. Now compared to his A-stats, this is a tremendous jump. Now, what the principle of regression to the mean says is that the guy he showed earlier (the guy with a below .700 OPS) is the real him, and that he will turn into that pumpkin eventually.

 

However (to answer your question - and I am only repeating what the Law or Baseball America sorts say, I have no special talent here), what scouts and FOs want to see is did Hernandez do something (or did he physically grow) where this uptick in performance is bankable and real. If he has had a hot 300 PAs, but is still the same guy ... then that is one thing. If he has done something with his body or swing which has come out in the results? That is a different matter, and one which you start taking very seriously.

 

Minor league stats are always constrained in their usefulness, just because the games don't count and you don't know what notes the farm director has passed on about stuff the kid should be working on. I have not seen excitement for Hernandez match his performance, but that doesn't mean you are wrong in appreciating the performance.

[a700hitter]

What tools did Daniel Nava have? None. Can't run or throw. He had no power and is a substandard fielder.

[sk7326]

What tools did Daniel Nava have? None. Can't run or throw. He had no power and is a substandard fielder.

 

good approach ... takes good at-bats (especially from the left side)

[User Name]

good approach ... takes good at-bats (especially from the left side)

 

Above-average contact rates too.

[a700hitter]

good approach ... takes good at-bats (especially from the left side)

Yes. Very true, and that is a much more difficult tool to measure than speed, arm strength or power. Nava was not high up on any scouts list as a prospect, except for our very own Doji.

[Spudboy]

I never heard of Nava before Dojji asked "Does Daniel Nava deserve a chance?"

[a700hitter]

I never heard of Nava before Dojji asked "Does Daniel Nava deserve a chance?"

And he caught a ton of grief over this, but he was spot on with his assessment.

[cp176]

I tend to like players like that. I might be overly excited about Hernandez. Where i coached, we quite often didn't have the league's best. We worked with what we had. Mental toughness, coachability, work ethic, and just flat out determination allowed us to win a lot of games over the years. I'm sure that scouts and all these people who I know nothing about, must look at those as being attributes as well. As a matter of fact, I think that those attributes trumped talent in 2013. If I were a scout, which of course thank God I'm not, I would not draft a player if he did not get high marks on that short list of qualities.

[Palodios]

Kopech tested positive and is suspended for 50 games. Awesome.

[Kimmi]

I agree- I think that his ability to field the position at the next level might be an issue for him. He could make it though. I hope he gets his chance. It's a very good story. We have seen many players with a lot more potential never make it.

 

I just read that Hernandez has been promoted to Pawtucket.

 

Honestly, I had never heard of Hernandez before. Then again, I don't follow the minor leagues that closely.

[cp176]

I'm glad that you saw that. Good for him.

[a700hitter]

After getting off to a slow start in the minors, the 20-year-old has caught fire since moving to the leadoff spot. He’s batting .361/.440/.597 in his last 18 games. For the season, Moncada has a .272/.357/.426 slash line to go along with four home runs and 20 RBIs. The speedster is also 15-for-15 in stolen bases attempts.

 

I wonder when he will get promoted to the next level?