Keith Law's Prospect Stuff on Sawx

[Kimmi]

I was not responding to you or to anyone specifically.

 

I was not making myself clear.

 

I promise to never go all Fred on you.

 

 

LOL, good to hear Spud, not that I really thought you would.

 

You seem like a very level-headed and nice guy. I like you.

[sk7326]

I wholeheartedly agree that there is no need to rush in making the decision. To me, catching is a defense first position, and Vazquez seems to be elite in that category. Any offense he gives us is gravy, especially if the rest of the offense performs like they should.

 

There is plenty of time to adjudicate this. After all Swihart has to keep the leap that he made last year going. Without it, this is all moot. BTW: This applies to Vasquez too, who has proven that there is a major league starter in there - certainly defensively - but the offense has a grade or two to go to get to where you'd want it to be. The bar to clear for an above average catcher is very low - it is a level Vasquez is not at quite yet, but something as simple as making more contact is all it takes to get there.

 

It doesn't make sense to use Swihart as a backup this year clearly - it's burning an option for 150 PAs and limited development. The likely outcome is him staying at AAA. Now is it possible that Vasquez could get hurt and Wally Pip'd? Absolutely. There is time to for this to play itself out, but if both guys develop - the chance both will be in the org in the medium to long term is low, as it should be. If both guys are good, then dealing one of them is the option which makes all of the parties better off at the same time.

[Dojji]

No it isn't. Not unless you can get something you desperately need. Other teams aren't usually quite as quick to trade for catching prospects as some others just because scouting catching is a bit more of an undiscovered country than most other positions due to it being harder to really get a handle on defensive metrics meaning catching prospects are even more variable than most. Catching is such a tough position to make the right call on that it's really hard to get a team to invest full price in a stud backstop they didn't develop themselves. Not that it hasn't been done, but not nearly as much as outfielders, infielders or pitchers.

 

Most teams really seem to prefer to either pick a catcher off the bargain bin, or grow their own.

 

There's a distinct possibility that we could wind up in a position that we want to trade Vazquez and can't find a buyer who isn't trying to lowball us.

[sk7326]

No it isn't. Not unless you can get something you desperately need. Other teams aren't usually quite as quick to trade for catching prospects as some others just because scouting catching is a bit more of an undiscovered country than most other positions due to it being harder to really get a handle on defensive metrics meaning catching prospects are even more variable than most. Catching is such a tough position to make the right call on that it's really hard to get a team to invest full price in a stud backstop they didn't develop themselves. Not that it hasn't been done, but not nearly as much as outfielders, infielders or pitchers.

 

Most teams really seem to prefer to either pick a catcher off the bargain bin, or grow their own.

 

There's a distinct possibility that we could wind up in a position that we want to trade Vazquez and can't find a buyer who isn't trying to lowball us.

 

The assumption is that there is a fair deal for a catcher obviously. If there are two potential starting catchers the same-ish age, it advances both careers to be separated. And it benefits the org (assuming a fair deal is there) since the resources are being maximized.

 

The discussion would be simpler if the guy in the minors was in single-A or something. You shouldn't do any sort of big league planning betting on a guy in Lowell. Given how close to the bigs Swihart is - at some point the front office will have to bet on itself and hope they made the right decision. It's why Cherington gets the big bucks.

 

As for the assertion about catching prospects moving - the top catching prospect in the minors moved in a deal for a Cy Young pitcher - that happened in the 2012-13 offseason too.

[Spudboy]

Swilhart has played what, 18 games in AAA?

 

There is no urgency to this matter.

[mvp 78]

Swihart shouldn't be in Boston until Sept callups. You don't rush catchers.

[User Name]

That depends on Swihart himself. If he's destroying AAA while playing above-average D, they need to make a call on him sooner rather than later. Prospects force team's hands all the time. Time will tell.

[Kimmi]

There is plenty of time to adjudicate this. After all Swihart has to keep the leap that he made last year going. Without it, this is all moot. BTW: This applies to Vasquez too, who has proven that there is a major league starter in there - certainly defensively - but the offense has a grade or two to go to get to where you'd want it to be. The bar to clear for an above average catcher is very low - it is a level Vasquez is not at quite yet, but something as simple as making more contact is all it takes to get there.

 

It doesn't make sense to use Swihart as a backup this year clearly - it's burning an option for 150 PAs and limited development. The likely outcome is him staying at AAA. Now is it possible that Vasquez could get hurt and Wally Pip'd? Absolutely. There is time to for this to play itself out, but if both guys develop - the chance both will be in the org in the medium to long term is low, as it should be. If both guys are good, then dealing one of them is the option which makes all of the parties better off at the same time.

 

 

Agreed. I usually don't have anything to debate or even add to your posts. Well said.

[sk7326]

Swihart shouldn't be in Boston until Sept callups. You don't rush catchers.

 

Agreed to a point - it's still about the kid. Betts crushed two levels and made a good dent in a third last season. He created a playing time problem - so we'll see what happens.

[sk7326]

Updated Top 25 with the graduations here: http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=3965

 

11. Yoan Moncada, 2B

Boston Red Sox

Current level: Low Class A (Greenville)

 

Boston's low-A affiliate, the Greenville Drive, is one of the most prospect-laden rosters in the minors, with Moncada, Rafael Devers, Javier Guerra, former first-rounder Michael Chavis, former sandwich-round pick Michael Kopech, former second-rounder Williams Jerez (an ex-outfielder now throwing bullets as a relief pitcher) and more. Moncada is their big bonus baby from this winter, a switch-hitting Cuban shortstop who's playing second base for the Drive. He has barely begun to play, but there's broad consensus that he's going to hit for average and power, although he may ultimately be better defensively at third than second.

 

14. Rafael Devers, 3B

Boston Red Sox

Current level: Low Class A (Greenville)

 

"Well That Escalated Quickly: The Rafael Devers Story," written by Mark from Arlington, due out in bookstores later this summer. (My baseball podcast fans know all about "Mahk from Ahlington.") Devers is still not that polished at the plate, but he has explosive bat speed and power, and even if he has to go to the outfield because of his size, he's still a potential middle-of-the-order bat.

 

18. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP

Boston Red Sox

Current level: Triple-A (Pawtucket)

 

Rodriguez has two plus pitches in his fastball and changeup, excellent control (albeit not command yet) and dominates lefties even though he doesn't have a wipeout breaking ball. I don't think he's the answer to Boston's rotation problems, but he's a better response than Joe Kelly.

[Behindenemylines]

Updated Top 25 with the graduations here: http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=3965

 

Hopefully, the OF Benintendi from Arkansas is another piece that pays off for the Sox.

[mvp 78]

Hopefully, the OF Benintendi from Arkansas is another piece that pays off for the Sox.

 

Too soon to worry about 2019.

[a700hitter]

I hope to see Benitendo at Fenway some day, but that day is so far off that I can't even bothered learning to spell or his name yet. Hopefully, we see a .500 team before he gets to Fenway.

[sk7326]

Updated Top 10: Moncada #7, Devers #9 (updated due to promotions and such)

 

Benintendi Law rates as Sox #5 prospect behind: Moncada, Devers, Margot, Owens and maybe Guerra.

 

Of course this was not a great year for "star" prospects (look at how many college bats went early compared to high school)

[Spudboy]

Has Benintendi already signed with the Sox??

 

If not, can he truly be a Sox prospect?

[sk7326]

Has Benintendi already signed with the Sox??

 

If not, can he truly be a Sox prospect?

 

LOL - he will. New system more or less makes it so. He has a bit more leverage as a sophomore - but it is safe to assume the entire first round signs unless the teams did not do their homework or discovered an odd medical thing

[sk7326]

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=4037

 

The Red Sox spent big last offseason to sign Cuban teenager Yoan Moncada as a free agent, giving the shortstop a $31.5 million bonus that forced them to pay an equal amount to Major League Baseball as a penalty for exceeding their international bonus limits for the 2014-15 season. Moncada, who turned 20 in late May, hadn't faced live pitching in a game format since 2013, and so far in his time with low-Class A Greenville, the rust has really showed.

 

Moncada is hitting .200/.287/.289 for Greenville through 101 plate appearances, and he went 0-for-8 in the two games I saw him play against the Lakewood BlueClaws over the weekend, with close to zero pitch recognition. Moncada appeared flummoxed by pitches of all types, as if he was looking for one pitch and got something completely different, so his plus bat speed didn't come into play very often.

 

He's a true switch-hitter, but I like his left-handed swing better, as he loads a little further back and down, getting a better path to the ball and keeping his bat in the zone a little longer. The right-handed swing is shorter and quicker, but he loads higher, coming down at the ball, producing a sort of U-shaped swing that seems like it won't produce a lot of hard contact. He played above-average defense at second base, with good range in both directions, but ran below average times on ground balls.

 

It's very early to panic or even materially change any opinions on what kind of player Moncada will be. It's just not quite what I expected, and I'd like to see him play with more energy, even though his slow start is probably beginning to wear on him.

 

More scouting notes from Greenville-Lakewood

 

• Third baseman Rafael Devers, on the other hand, was as advertised and then some -- an electric player on both sides of the ball who's performing well even though he's the third-youngest regular in the South Atlantic League.

 

 

Red Sox prospect Rafael Devers is hitting .305 at Class A Greenville, with a .451 slugging percentage. Tom Priddy/Four Seam Images/AP Images

Devers starts with a wide setup but takes a solid stride while maintaining his balance well so that he can still generate power from his back leg -- and power he has, hitting a ball out to dead center in Lakewood, about 420 or so feet, off a left-handed pitcher. He uses his lower half very well, with solid hip rotation and excellent follow-through to generate power without getting too uphill. The BlueClaws did find his weakness: He doesn't like the ball up and in, cutting at least four fastballs up there in the second game, although the home run came on a fastball that was also up but out over the plate.

 

Devers is big for third base, but he plays it very well, with a 70 arm and quick hands. He does everything with a lot of energy, too, in contrast to Moncada's slower demeanor.

 

• Shortstop Javier Guerra has emerged as yet another top Red Sox position-player prospect, an excellent defender with soft hands and easy actions along with a plus arm, and he's also hitting well above expectations so far this year as a 19-year-old for Greenville.

 

Against Lakewood, Guerra was behind a lot of left-handed fastballs in the 90-92 range despite plenty of bat speed. He mistimes too often and when the ball was up, he'd start to leak out over his front side, exacerbating the problem. He's leading the Drive in homers but is second in strikeouts to Michael Chavis (who played just one of the games, as a DH, and took good at-bats but looked overmatched when he fell behind), more evidence that Guerra's approach hasn't caught up to his tools yet.

 

The upside is substantial -- he's a plus overall defender at short who can hit for average and some power -- but he's not as far along as Devers yet.

[iortiz]

Seems like the Cubans are not working out thus far.

[sk7326]

Seems like the Cubans are not working out thus far.

 

Moncada's 19 - early to tell. Really Guerra and Devers stories are the ones to watch, the latter particularly.

[Palodios]

Moncada has been stuck in a military compound in Guatamala the last year or two. I doubt anyone was throwing him offspeed pitches down there. He has plenty of time to get back into game shape.

[iortiz]

Everybody was after Moncada at the time. Hopefully he is the real deal.

[sk7326]

Keith Law Updated Top 50 ... http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=4096

 

#8. Rafael Devers

 

The ball flies off Devers' bat, and for a player his size, he's quite agile at third base, also possessing a plus arm. He's only 18 -- younger than seven of the 12 high-school players taken in the first round of last month's Rule 4 (amateur) draft -- yet is already performing reasonably well in low-A.

 

#11 Yoan Moncada

 

It took a while for Moncada to shake off the rust, but his at-bats have improved the past two weeks (small sample size caveats apply) and he's starting to perform more in line with expectations. He's very physical, with power potential from both sides of the plate, showing a better, more direct swing from the left side that should produce more contact and higher-quality contact as well. He's a former shortstop but projects as an above-average defender at second base, where the Red Sox have played him all season, with the possibility he could handle third base as well.

 

#14 Manuel Margot

 

Scouts absolutely adore Margot -- more than one has told me he'd put Margot ahead of Devers and Moncada in Boston's system -- not just because of his tools but because of his instincts, with Margot potentially a plus-plus defender in center who has an excellent eye at the plate. He's already in Double-A and performing well even though he won't turn 21 until after the minor league season ends.

 

#37 Henry Owens

 

Owens has tremendous deception and a grade-70 changeup, but had control woes early in the season, which is trouble for any pitcher but perhaps a little worse for a guy with an average to slightly above-average fastball. He has been throwing more strikes of late, with just 10 walks in his last six starts (40 innings), and should be next in line when a rotation spot opens in Boston.

 

#48 Javier Guerra

 

Guerra is the best prospect to come out of Panama since Carlos Lee, a true shortstop with incredibly easy actions at the position and more potential with the bat than I think even the Red Sox realized when they signed him for $250,000 in 2012. He's a below-average runner, but it doesn't limit his defensive value in any way, while at the plate his main issue is recognizing pitches from left-handers, who've eaten him for lunch so far this year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Law is such a semen slurper, it blows my f***ing mind. One year he sucks the balls of every prospect who is near the top and the next he's throwing top 15 IN ALL OF BASEBALL out there for guys in low A or A ball. I don't f***ing get this guy. And it isn't like he's scouting them. It seems as if he calls a random exec, asks them about their helium prospects and if he gets a blowy in the bathroom, he'll throw them on the top 50. The omission of Severino is damn near criminal here.

[Spudboy]

Maybe the wording of the chart should be amended?

[Palodios]

Besides Guerra, Law's positions for Red Sox prospects are pretty similar to BP and BA.

 

He just doesn't like Severino as much as the next guy.

[Kimmi]

Maybe the wording of the chart should be amended?

 

LOL References to the chart crack me up every time.

[sk7326]

Law is such a semen slurper, it blows my f***ing mind. One year he sucks the balls of every prospect who is near the top and the next he's throwing top 15 IN ALL OF BASEBALL out there for guys in low A or A ball. I don't f***ing get this guy. And it isn't like he's scouting them. It seems as if he calls a random exec, asks them about their helium prospects and if he gets a blowy in the bathroom, he'll throw them on the top 50. The omission of Severino is damn near criminal here.

 

Not really an omission if i read correctly:

 

#13 - Aaron Judge

 

Honorable mention Luis Severino, RHP, NY Yankees; Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Washington (I project he and Severino, both great arms, are more likely relievers than starters);

 

I think he has noted he usually tries to see the guys once a year at least ... and that his rankings favor upside because that's what front offices do and that seems more informative for readers.

Edited July 17, 2015 by sk7326

[jacksonianmarch]

Sk, depending on the year, he'll use proximity over ceiling. His criteria changes practically on the fly. And while any pitcher has the potential to be a reliever, can he give a single iota of a reason as to why Luis is destined for the pen?

[cp176]

Sk, depending on the year, he'll use proximity over ceiling. His criteria changes practically on the fly. And while any pitcher has the potential to be a reliever, can he give a single iota of a reason as to why Luis is destined for the pen?

 

 

Moncada has started to hit of late. Guerra looks like he could be the real deal. It is good to have access to all relevant info when you want to take a close look at our prospects. I've decided to watch them play, check their stats and make up my own mind about them. It is safer for me.

[sk7326]

Sk, depending on the year, he'll use proximity over ceiling. His criteria changes practically on the fly. And while any pitcher has the potential to be a reliever, can he give a single iota of a reason as to why Luis is destined for the pen?

 

From the yankees prospects blurb from the january list

 

Severino has a live, loose arm with a plus changeup and a fastball that shows plus, but it's a reliever's delivery all the way, with no use of his lower half, to say nothing of the lack of an average breaking ball.

 

It's just an opinion at the end of the day - and it's not like there are ONLY 50 good prospects in the minors ... but I find his work 1) is decisive. you want a rank, you get a rank. 2) admits mistakes (Chris Sale, Dustin Pedroia) ... 3) tries to reconcile his thinking actively with trends in the industry ... in other words ... the opposite of what HoF voters do.