Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?

[Bellhorn04]

It was surprising to me that Ben was a market maker in this instance as he had not done that in his tenure. Theo, on the other hand, set the market several times during his tenure.

 

Not sure why it's surprising. What other pitchers comparable in the least to Porcello has Ben inked since he became GM?

[Bellhorn04]

Seriously Bells, comparing Porcello to Lester. You are out on a limb that will get sawed off.

 

What? I wasn't comparing them at all. Lester's deal is double Porcello's.

 

I'm questioning the assertion that was clearly made that Lester is in the Top 10.

[a700hitter]

What? I wasn't comparing them at all. Lester's deal is double Porcello's.

 

I'm questioning the assertion that was clearly made that Lester is in the Top 10.

It is not double Porcello's deal. It is for 2 more seasons. Big difference.

[TedWilliams101]

What? I wasn't comparing them at all. Lester's deal is double Porcello's.

 

I'm questioning the assertion that was clearly made that Lester is in the Top 10.

 

Name me 10 pitchers who you'd put ahead of him. Proven big game pitcher, put up consistently great # in the AL. I don't have him top 5, but I do think he is at least # 10

[jacksonianmarch]

Lester proved he could do it in Boston and was absolutely money in the playoffs. Porcello is a nice player who has never been an ace. Lester had been an ace for 5 seasons or so

[Divinity]

Name me 10 pitchers who you'd put ahead of him. Proven big game pitcher, put up consistently great # in the AL. I don't have him top 5, but I do think he is at least # 10

 

 

Which of these pitchers do you feel Lester is better than?

 

Clayton Kershaw

Felix Hernandez

Adam Wainwright

Chris Sale

Max Scherzer

David Price

Johnny Cueto

Yu Darvish

Masahiro Tanaka

Madison Bumgarner

Stephen Strasburg

Corey Kluber

[iortiz]

Which of these pitchers do you feel Lester is better than?

 

Clayton Kershaw

Felix Hernandez

Adam Wainwright

Chris Sale

Max Scherzer

David Price

Johnny Cueto

Yu Darvish

Masahiro Tanaka

Madison Bumgarner

Stephen Strasburg

Corey Kluber

Well, not sure which metric(s)/splits you want to compare.

 

He is a durable & 30 WAR pitcher over 9 Y, thing that some of those above are not.

[Bellhorn04]

It is not double Porcello's deal. It is for 2 more seasons. Big difference.

 

I realize that. There are other differences too, like their ages.

 

The total amount at risk is close to double. That's just a fact.

[iortiz]

Lester proved he could do it in Boston and was absolutely money in the playoffs. Porcello is a nice player who has never been an ace. Lester had been an ace for 5 seasons or so

 

Keep the ace label behind.

 

He is a ~2.5 WAR/4+ ERA pitcher. Not sure if those numbers could apply even for a No 2.

[Bellhorn04]

Lester's career ERA is 3.60. He is clearly a #2 pitcher by the definitions that I've been seeing on this thread.

[iortiz]

I realize that. There are other differences too, like their ages.

 

The total amount at risk is close to double. That's just a fact.

 

 

Divinity put a list of very good pitchers. Problem with some of them is that they are not durable, and Lester has been. I think the risk regarding his durability is not a problem or at least manoeuvrable for the cubs. The same goes for Shields. On the other hand, Porcello could stay forever in 25 and the stuff will never be there to become a No. 1 (5+ WAR pitcher) not even close.

Edited May 4, 2015 by iortiz

[iortiz]

Lester's career ERA is 3.60. He is clearly a #2 pitcher by the definitions that I've been seeing on this thread.

 

He has proved several times that he can command an ERA around 3 (No 1 type) and last year below that (ace type).

[TedWilliams101]

Lester's career ERA is 3.60. He is clearly a #2 pitcher by the definitions that I've been seeing on this thread.

 

3.06 ERA vs NL teams. You have to take into account the fact that he plays in the AL East. It's no surprise that you almost never see a starter dip below 3.00 ERA in the AL East. It's still arguably the toughest division to pitch in. Put him in an NL pitchers park and he'll enjoy a sub 3.00 ERA easy.

 

Which of these pitchers do you feel Lester is better than?

 

Clayton Kershaw

Felix Hernandez

Adam Wainwright

Chris Sale

Max Scherzer

David Price

Johnny Cueto

Yu Darvish

Masahiro Tanaka

Madison Bumgarner

Stephen Strasburg

Corey Kluber

 

RIGHT NOW, I'm taking Lester over all of them except Kershaw, Felix, and Sale. The rest either haven't had enough sustained excellence (one or two good years isn't enough in my book. Promising, but if I'm looking to sign a #1, I'm taking the proven guy every time, money being equal) or have inflated #s due to the NL/etc. Price I think is a wash due to the unbelievable playoff success Lester has had, same with Scherzer and Wainwright. Tanaka, who knows if he can put together 4+ years of great pitching, we have yet to see that from a Japanese import.

 

You can put Lester where ever you want in that List, but in my opinion, there's at least a very good argument to have Lester in the top 4-10.

Edited May 4, 2015 by TedWilliams101

[a700hitter]

Which of these pitchers do you feel Lester is better than?

 

Clayton Kershaw

Felix Hernandez

Adam Wainwright

Chris Sale

Max Scherzer

David Price

Johnny Cueto

Yu Darvish

Masahiro Tanaka

Madison Bumgarner

Stephen Strasburg

Corey Kluber

Kluber has had one great season and he is 29 years old. He doesn't come close to Lester.

Tanaka has had two-thirds of one excellent season and looks like he is heading to Mark Prior permanent residency on the DL

Cueto has not been as consistent or as durable as Lester

Darvish was off to a nice start to his career and now is MIA due to TJ

[a700hitter]

I realize that. There are other differences too, like their ages.

 

The total amount at risk is close to double. That's just a fact.

Let me see your work on this. I have to see how $155 million over 6 years is worth twice as much as $82.5 over 4 years. Sounds like some fuzzy math.

[iortiz]

Let me see your work on this. I have to see how $155 million over 6 years is worth twice as much as $82.5 over 4 years. Sounds like some fuzzy math.

 

Durability AND sustained good numbers, say over 6 Y, is rare to see in pitching, reason why I would be willing even to overpay, even in early 30s. Lester, Shields and at the time Papelbon are some of the names I like(d).

Edited May 4, 2015 by iortiz

[Bellhorn04]

Let me see your work on this. I have to see how $155 million over 6 years is worth twice as much as $82.5 over 4 years. Sounds like some fuzzy math.

 

Now we're getting silly. What I said was 'total amount at risk is almost double'.

[a700hitter]

Now we're getting silly. What I said was 'total amount at risk is almost double'.

If you take into consideration the time value of money, which you need to do in or to have a valid comparison, it is not close to double.

[iortiz]

If you take into consideration the time value of money, which you need to do in or to have a valid comparison, it is not close to double.

 

Yup. Using the discount rate that Bell presented which is around 7.5%, Lester's NPV is around 120 and Porcello's around 70 and not to mention that Porcello is 3 steps downstairs from Lester (4 to me). I can live easily with those 120 M with a durable No 1 type for the next 6 Y if you ask me.

Edited May 4, 2015 by iortiz

[Bellhorn04]

Here are my calculations using a 5% discount factor.

 

PORCELLO ACTUAL DISCOUNT NPV

2016 20.13 0.95 19.17

2017 20.13 0.91 18.25

2018 21.13 0.86 18.25

2019 21.13 0.82 17.38

82.50 73.05

 

LESTER

2015 20.00 1.00 20.00

2016 25.00 0.95 23.81

2017 25.00 0.91 22.68

2018 27.50 0.86 23.76

2019 27.50 0.82 22.62

2020 30.00 0.78 23.51

155.00 136.37

 

136.37 = 186.7% of 73.05

[iortiz]

At 5%?

 

Lester Porcello

$131.12 $73.14

 

 

$25.83 $20.63

$25.83 $20.63

$25.83 $20.63

$25.83 $20.63

$25.83

$25.83

 

It is a bad deal regardless the DR% if he keeps posting what his track record suggests. the lower the rate is, the more likely you can not justify paying high AVV to a middle rotation guy. On there other hand, the higher the DR% is, you better go after better players (like Lester).

 

Said that, the only possibility as I said this contract works out is that this guy becomes a No 2 and in my books a No 2 posts something around (and sustained) 3.5 ERA/3.5+ WAR which is to be seen.

 

BL

 

LIM DR% ---> 0%; High AVV% & mid/long terms are absurd.

 

LIM DR% ----> INF; Better go after better pitchers who have better #s/stuff/durability and have mid-term contracts.

Edited May 4, 2015 by iortiz

[Bellhorn04]

At 5%?

 

Lester Porcello

$131.12 $73.14

 

 

$25.83 $20.63

$25.83 $20.63

$25.83 $20.63

$25.83 $20.63

$25.83

$25.83

 

 

Don't forget that there is no discount on Lester's salary this year. I think that's where the difference in our numbers probably is.

[iortiz]

Don't forget that there is no discount on Lester's salary this year. I think that's where the difference in our numbers probably is.

 

you are correct.

[Kimmi]

Maybe Porcello becomes a #2 or even a #1, but he isn't one yet. When he signed, he was a #3.

 

Porcello was a #3 based on what?

[Kimmi]

Divinity put a list of very good pitchers. Problem with some of them is that they are not durable, and Lester has been. I think the risk regarding his durability is not a problem or at least manoeuvrable for the cubs. The same goes for Shields. On the other hand, Porcello could stay forever in 25 and the stuff will never be there to become a No. 1 (5+ WAR pitcher) not even close.

 

I think you are overestimating the WAR value of pitchers. Last year, there were 10 pitchers who posted a WAR of 5 or above. In each of the 2 previous years, there were only 7. Are you saying there are that few #1 pitchers in baseball?

[Northern Star]

I think you are overestimating the WAR value of pitchers. Last year, there were 10 pitchers who posted a WAR of 5 or above. In each of the 2 previous years, there were only 7. Are you saying there are that few #1 pitchers in baseball?

 

Are YOU saying WAR, what is it good for?

[Northern Star]

Porcello was a #3 based on what?

 

That long streak of ERAs well over 4, maybe? Broken by one year and given $80mil before finding out if that's a fluke.

[Northern Star]

you are correct, sir.

 

fixed

[Kimmi]

While looking at a proven track record is always wise, the Sox have chosen to give Porcello a contract based on what they project for the future, rather than give a contract to Lester based on what he has done in the past. Porcello is likely to improve, Lester is likely to decline. The Sox are paying in part for Porcello's age and upside based on their metrics. Obviously, they think he will be worth it, more so than Lester will be worth his contract.

 

This is not a knock on Lester. I am among those who really wanted him re-signed. But the Sox not re-signing Lester does not make Porcello's deal a bad one.

[iortiz]

Porcello was a #3 based on what?

 

Based on his career numbers he is a 4.3 ERA pitcher #3-#4 type on my book.