Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?

[Kimmi]

I'd buy your argument if they weren't dishing out $20mil per now, at the front end. How high could his value reasonably be expected to climb? They have overpaid now, instead of waiting and seeing how he will do and then, OK, you want to keep him, you still have to overpay anyway.

 

I'm surprised by the timing, and don't like the money. Every time the Sox seem to do something smart, they turn round and do something that's questionable at best.

 

 

If Porcello ends up pitching well, it won't end up being an overpay.

 

While I understand the idea of waiting to see how he does this year, if he does end up pitching very well, we are likely talking a 6 year contract instead of 4. Five years at the least. The Sox do not like giving out those longer term deals, especially for the advanced ages. And if Porcello walked, the Sox would have to find another SP to replace him.

 

They are taking a risk in signing him this early, but IMO, it's a good risk to take.

[OriginalUsername]

I lived in Michigan for a significant portion of Porcello's Tigers career and watched a ton of his starts. Other than the stamina issue, I very much disagree with your assessment. Mostly on accounts of the bad D greatly affecting him more than Fister, who you unfairly used as a comparable. Fister isn't as extreme a groundball pitcher and generally had a better K rate.

 

Porcello pretty much pitched below his peripherals on a yearly basis in Detroit, and there has to be a reason for that. Other than terrible defense, what exactly can logically be the reason for this anomaly? I'm not saying he's going to be a #1 here, but he'll certainly be better than solid.

 

Fister's two full seasons in Detroit he had a 54.3 and 51% ground rate. Porcello in the last two seasons was at 49 and 55.3%. Fister did have a higher K rate which helped. He also had a higher LOB%. For his entire career he was over 70%. Porcello had one season over 70% which was his best year. A lot has to do with the sequencing of hits. Porcello also isn't very good with runners on base, giving up an 800+ OPS. He only K's about 5 per 9. Even a great defense won't prevent the inevitable BABIP death he has experienced at times in his career.

[OriginalUsername]

um, wat? And exactly how many pitches do you expect your starter to throw?

 

He starts to lose velocity at about 80 pitches and is usually done by 100. When Porcello loses velocity, it's not a good thing since his fastball is only about 10-12 MPH more than his off speed stuff. There's a reason he never pitched more than 182 innings until last year.

[a700hitter]

A 700 wrote: that contract has not returned a lot of value.

 

What's the last significant contract to a pitcher that DID return a lot of value?

 

Are you directing this only at the Red Sox?

[iortiz]

Your opinion in this case means nothing, considering how you're ignoring anything positive regarding Porcello statistically because "you don't like him". Get out of here.

It is not personal, I do not like him as a player at all. Statistically he sucks in most part of his career in the majors, and when I put the whole thing in a balance, it is not encouraging. Are you going to try to sell me another Lee lottery ticket?

Edited April 8, 2015 by iortiz

[iortiz]

Fister's two full seasons in Detroit he had a 54.3 and 51% ground rate. Porcello in the last two seasons was at 49 and 55.3%. Fister did have a higher K rate which helped. He also had a higher LOB%. For his entire career he was over 70%. Porcello had one season over 70% which was his best year. A lot has to do with the sequencing of hits. Porcello also isn't very good with runners on base, giving up an 800+ OPS. He only K's about 5 per 9. Even a great defense won't prevent the inevitable BABIP death he has experienced at times in his career.

But he lived in Michigan, damn you!

[iortiz]

The Red Sox are banking hard on projections. They probably looked at his 2013 numbers (180 IP, 4.30 ERA) and figured that even if he performed to that level he would still be worth the money.

 

This is a team that paid 13m/year for Dempster, 9 million for Masterson, 15m/year for Daisuke, and 17m/year for a mix of great and downright awful years from Lackey/Beckett.

 

If this were true, an Orangutan would run better this team. A 4.3 ERA pitcher will never worth 20 M/Y.

 

But you are right, we have seen enough busts come and go with their pockets full of money, so we wouldn't be surprised at all.

[User Name]

A 700 wrote: that contract has not returned a lot of value.

 

What's the last significant contract to a pitcher that DID return a lot of value?

 

Felix Hernandez.

[User Name]

Fister's two full seasons in Detroit he had a 54.3 and 51% ground rate. Porcello in the last two seasons was at 49 and 55.3%. Fister did have a higher K rate which helped. He also had a higher LOB%. For his entire career he was over 70%. Porcello had one season over 70% which was his best year. A lot has to do with the sequencing of hits. Porcello also isn't very good with runners on base, giving up an 800+ OPS. He only K's about 5 per 9. Even a great defense won't prevent the inevitable BABIP death he has experienced at times in his career.

 

Wasn't very good with runners on base. His improvement last year in LOB%%, BB/9 and HR/9 is part of the reason they gave him the extension.

 

The hilarious thing is that (not saying you're doing this, just in general) is that the people whining about the extension are the same people who would have whined if he pitched well then left via FA. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

[iortiz]

I think he will be able to hold his ERA under 4. Cabrera and Fielder are two of the worst defenders in the league. When Detroit traded Fielder and moved Miggy to first, Porcello's ERA went down. xFIP is a better predictor of future ERA than ERA is.

 

Under 4? What do you mean with this? 3, 3.5, 3.8?

[mvp 78]

Wasn't very good with runners on base. His improvement last year in LOB%%, BB/9 and HR/9 is part of the reason they gave him the extension.

 

The hilarious thing is that (not saying you're doing this, just in general) is that the people whining about the extension are the same people who would have whined if he pitched well then left via FA. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

 

It's my cake and I'll do whatever I want with it!

[a700hitter]

There is no cake to eat until he proves that he can pitch well at Fenway. Signing a phenomena talent like Pedro or Schilling long term before they pitched at Fenway is one thing They were both CY Young caliber hurlers when they were acquired. The jury is out on Miley and PRcello, especially Miley.

[mvp 78]

The jury IS still out, but that doesn't mean we need to vomit all over him before he even throws a pitch. To me, there is a better chance he pitches to his contract than becomes a complete bust.

[Kimmi]

Under 4? What do you mean with this? 3, 3.5, 3.8?

 

 

I was thinking something in the neighborhood of 3.7. However, I don't think it's unrealistic to think that he could have an ERA around 3.4 like he had last year.

 

FTR, according to Fangraphs valuation, Porcello has been worth a little over $20 mil each of the past 2 years. His contract amount is not outrageous.

[iortiz]

I was thinking something in the neighborhood of 3.7. However, I don't think it's unrealistic to think that he could have an ERA around 3.4 like he had last year.

 

FTR, according to Fangraphs valuation, Porcello has been worth a little over $20 mil each of the past 2 years. His contract amount is not outrageous.

 

Too much talk.

 

I'll be willing to bet 100 bucks to anybody that his ERA will be 4 or higher? Any taker?

[iortiz]

.... Also, he has to post at least, say a friendly 150 IP. Edited April 8, 2015 by iortiz

[Kimmi]

Too much talk.

 

I'll be willing to bet 100 bucks to anybody that his ERA will be 4 or higher? Any taker?

 

 

I do not bet on things like this, other than the occasional work pool type of thing.

 

I would be more than willing to make a sig or avatar bet with you though.

[iortiz]

I do not bet on things like this, other than the occasional work pool type of thing.

 

I would be more than willing to make a sig or avatar bet with you though.

 

Tempting but Sig or avatar bets are for boys haha.

 

How much are you willing to bet?

[Kimmi]

Sig or avatar bets are for boys haha.

 

How much are you willing to bet?

 

 

I'm not willing to bet any money. It's just something that I don't do. I'm sure that you are going to take that as a sign that I'm afraid to put my money where my mouth is, or whatever, but that's not the case. I am very confident that Porcello will post an ERA under 4. If I were the betting type, your bet would be what I consider easy money for me.

[iortiz]

I'm not willing to bet any money. It's just something that I don't do. I'm sure that you are going to take that as a sign that I'm afraid to put my money where my mouth is, or whatever, but that's not the case. I am very confident that Porcello will post an ERA under 4. If I were the betting type, your bet would be what I consider easy money for me.

 

Haha so come and take the easy money lady. 100 bucks won't hurt anybody, and won't make you a gambler either, but I respect that.

 

Any taker?

[Youk Of The Nation]

Haha so come and take the easy money lady. 100 bucks won't hurt anybody, and won't make you a gambler either, but I respect that.

 

Any taker?

 

I wish that losing 100 bucks could be something that "wouldn't hurt" me, but that's about 25% of a weeks pay for me (more, lately, considering how slow we have been). I will bet you a dollar.

[a700hitter]

Fenway was 104 last year. Comerica is pretty neutral. Fenway ranked 3rd in terms of hitter parks in MLB and Comerica 10th.

So, he is going to more of a hitters park. The FO should have waited to see how that would affect his game. He is a contact pitcher.

[a700hitter]

Too much talk.

 

I'll be willing to bet 100 bucks to anybody that his ERA will be 4 or higher? Any taker?

You are willing to put your money where yur mouth is. If people don't want to bet the under on a 4 ERA, they don't really believe their own rhetoric about Porcello.

[mvp 78]

Or they just don't want to deal with someone who is acting like an ******* today?

 

I have much better things to do with my money than bet on sports. If he blows out his arm, I'm out $100. No thanks.

[a700hitter]

Or they just don't want to deal with someone who is acting like an ******* today?

 

I have much better things to do with my money than bet on sports. If he blows out his arm, I'm out $100. No thanks.

CLuck cluck.

[Youk Of The Nation]

You are willing to put your money where yur mouth is. If people don't want to bet the under on a 4 ERA, they don't really believe their own rhetoric about Porcello.

 

I believe it, but baseball occasionally goes in unpredictable directions, and 100 dollars can mean the difference between me eating meals for two weeks or eating plain Ramen.

[a700hitter]

I believe it, but baseball occasionally goes in unpredictable directions, and 100 dollars can mean the difference between me eating meals for two weeks or eating plain Ramen.

People should never bet beyond their means.

[iortiz]

I wish that losing 100 bucks could be something that "wouldn't hurt" me, but that's about 25% of a weeks pay for me (more, lately, considering how slow we have been). I will bet you a dollar.

In your case YTN, I would take a sig bet, what about that?

[iortiz]

Or they just don't want to deal with someone who is acting like an ******* today?

 

I have much better things to do with my money than bet on sports. If he blows out his arm, I'm out $100. No thanks.

*******? Haha how's that?

[a700hitter]

*******? Haha how's that?

Anger management issues.