2014 Offseason Thread

[SeanJohn93]

Also, a reporter from Cincinnati said that he believes Mike Leake could go for Craig straight up

 

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/redsblog/2014/11/24/bar112414/19488039/?from=global&sessionKey=&autologin=

[Palodios]

Leake for Craig would be awesome. Take 8 million off the luxury cap, get a solid #3 pitcher, and still have Cespedes as a potential trade chip, or power bat at the bottom of the lineup. I doubt it'll happen, but who knows.

[seabeachfred]

All the more reason the Sox have to sign Lester.

 

Right now Lester is busily on his "greed" tour and it occurred to me that this is the tipoff that he is going elsewhere and is going to give Henry a big middle finger.....and that is why I take a different tack and want the Red Sox to make a full rush for Cole Hamels. If we come up empty with both Jon (most definitely) and Hamels ( very likely unless we get off the dime) we are left trying to outbid the Yankees for Scherzer, a sure defeat, or Cueto. Mediocrities like Santana, Liiano, Masterson, Hummel are not going to get it done, and that is why I hoped the Red Sox would call it a halt after signing Pablo and let Hanley go somewhere else because his money could impede us from signing Lester. Yes, I know the Sox have a lot of money and say they are willing to spend it but I've seen them spend big for hot shots before and then close the vault---as in 2011 with Gonzales and Crawford and wound up with a weak pitching staff when injuries hit late in the season.

[jacksonianmarch]

Don't call it a greed tour seabeach. You'd do the same thing, as would I. Lester gave the sox every chance to sign a long term deal. He said he'd give a discount and he was offered a pittance compared to what he will make. There is a difference between a discount and foolishness. I think once that offer came across, he said, "f*** you guys, I'm hitting the market." As he should have. He is going to get in the neighborhood of $150 mil guaranteed on the market this yr. Henry offered him less than half that.

[Palodios]

"f*** you guys, I'm hitting the market." As he should have. He is going to get in the neighborhood of $150 mil guaranteed on the market this yr. Henry offered him less than half that.

 

Supposedly the Red Sox offered him 145 million a few days ago. The whole situation was poorly done by the Red Sox FO, but that offer is near market price. If that's not enough, the Sox might as well offer the extra year to Scherzer for 170-180.

[d-money]

How about cespedes and a couple of prospects for Samardzija

[d-money]

Cespedes was very loved in oakland.

[sk7326]

Right now Lester is busily on his "greed" tour and it occurred to me that this is the tipoff that he is going elsewhere and is going to give Henry a big middle finger.....and that is why I take a different tack and want the Red Sox to make a full rush for Cole Hamels. If we come up empty with both Jon (most definitely) and Hamels ( very likely unless we get off the dime) we are left trying to outbid the Yankees for Scherzer, a sure defeat, or Cueto. Mediocrities like Santana, Liiano, Masterson, Hummel are not going to get it done, and that is why I hoped the Red Sox would call it a halt after signing Pablo and let Hanley go somewhere else because his money could impede us from signing Lester. Yes, I know the Sox have a lot of money and say they are willing to spend it but I've seen them spend big for hot shots before and then close the vault---as in 2011 with Gonzales and Crawford and wound up with a weak pitching staff when injuries hit late in the season.

 

He has the freedom to look at anybody who offers him a job. Just like you or I do (granted a shade more leverage). Ultimately it is a personal/family decision - won't begrudge him either way. Loyalty is the sort of standard we apply to players and not to ourselves in this area.

[example1]

My guess is that he gets dished this offseason along with Margot and Brian Johnson for Samardzija

 

That seems about right to me. Total overpay by the Red Sox but none of those guys are absolutely necessary for the Sox to compete over the next 4 years. That would be a great get by the A's. Johnson is a really interesting pitcher who would have been one of the Sox better prospects in leaner prospect years. He's a 6'3 lefty who was a first round pick out of Florida. I've never seen him live but apparently he works incredibly fast, like Mark Buehrle. In a system like this he is easy to forget about, but I would probably prefer to get Johnson than Ranaudo or Barnes or Webster, even though the others have higher ceilings. All in all, this deal would basically assure all of us that in 4-5 years we will be discussing who we should trade to the A's for Margot.

[seabeachfred]

He has the freedom to look at anybody who offers him a job. Just like you or I do (granted a shade more leverage). Ultimately it is a personal/family decision - won't begrudge him either way. Loyalty is the sort of standard we apply to players and not to ourselves in this area.

 

Let me clear this up once and for all so that you and Jacko and anyone else who thinks I'm berating Lester can rest easily. I'm now convinced that beyond just a slight doubt that Jon is bidding the Red Sox a fair adieu. He has a right to seek out the best deal for himself and his family and Prune Face stands convicted for his stingy and tight waded offer last Spring. However, I would have more respect for Lester if he just told the Red Sox he is not interested now in coming back. That would be honest and it wouldn't impede his ability to get a big paying contract. Simply put, he has no intention of returning to the Red Sox and should be honest enough to say it to them.....IMHO.

[sk7326]

Let me clear this up once and for all so that you and Jacko and anyone else who thinks I'm berating Lester can rest easily. I'm now convinced that beyond just a slight doubt that Jon is bidding the Red Sox a fair adieu. He has a right to seek out the best deal for himself and his family and Prune Face stands convicted for his stingy and tight waded offer last Spring. However, I would have more respect for Lester if he just told the Red Sox he is not interested now in coming back. That would be honest and it wouldn't impede his ability to get a big paying contract. Simply put, he has no intention of returning to the Red Sox and should be honest enough to say it to them.....IMHO.

 

Oh I think the Red Sox are in play ... they offered 6 years, that is a credible offer. The money part of it can be fixed, but the commitment to the years is what keeps them in contention. The Red Sox obviously did not lock him up with the offer they made earlier in the year - the question is how much value does incumbency really have with an elite free agent? I don't know - but I am not sure it's all that much.

[example1]

However, I would have more respect for Lester if he just told the Red Sox he is not interested now in coming back. That would be honest and it wouldn't impede his ability to get a big paying contract. Simply put, he has no intention of returning to the Red Sox and should be honest enough to say it to them.....IMHO.

 

Do you really lose respect for Lester because he hasn't turned down the Sox offer publicly yet? It would only be "honest" if that's what he really wants to do, and as far as I know you don't know him or his real intentions. Haven't you weighed new job opportunities before? It shouldn't be easy to decide where to spend your next 6-7 years. I don't blame him for taking his time. It's an important decision with lots of money attached.

 

I also think people are underplaying the potential that the Cubs have to sign him. They have a really nice young core, an absurdly dedicated fan base, Chicago is a great city. Also, just like Schilling coming to Boston, I suspect Theo et al, are talking up how much of a hero Lester would be if he could come and pitch this team to a World Series. For a competitor like Lester that must be enticing... it doesn't hurt that it would come with $20m+ per season.

[BSN07]

Puke... i wouldn't trade a bag of balls for any of those "veteran" SP the Mets are shopping.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm sure he's interested in returning Fred. Just not on a discount. He's going to the highest bidder

[Bellhorn04]

I read that Lester wants 6/$150. It'll be interesting if both the Sox and Cubs say they'll give him that and it comes down to a choice between the teams.

[a700hitter]

FO would have saved themselves a lot of money if they had negotiated in good faith prior to last Spring Training.

[Palodios]

I read that Lester wants 6/$150. It'll be interesting if both the Sox and Cubs say they'll give him that and it comes down to a choice between the teams.

 

I can't imagine Lester would choose Chicago. The weather sucks, the team hasn't proven itself yet, and won't until Lester is later in his contract. He probably prefers Farrell over Maddon, and probably doesn't even have much of a relationship with Theo/Ben. Unless he's soured over Boston because they traded so many players including himself, I just don't see any reason to go to Chicago besides more money.

[Spudboy]

FO would have saved themselves a lot of money if they had negotiated in good faith prior to last Spring Training.

 

It's spilled milk now but there is no ignoring the fact that the Sox screwed this deal up long before Lester was a free agent.

 

They should have given him a sweet deal after the 2013 ended.

 

But it's their business!!

[Spudboy]

I can't imagine Lester would choose Chicago. The weather sucks, the team hasn't proven itself yet, and won't until Lester is later in his contract. He probably prefers Farrell over Maddon, and probably doesn't even have much of a relationship with Theo/Ben. Unless he's soured over Boston because they traded so many players including himself, I just don't see any reason to go to Chicago besides more money.

 

Maybe the money will be competitive and he will have a good vibe when he visits.

 

The point is that he can choose whatever team he wants to choose now. It's his turn to choose his path.

 

Is Chicago that bad? I've heard many really good things about that city.

[a700hitter]

Maybe the money will be competitive and he will have a good vibe when he visits.

 

The point is that he can choose whatever team he wants to choose now. It's his turn to choose his path.

 

Is Chicago that bad? I've heard many really good things about that city.

I don't think Boston weather is much better.

[Palodios]

I don't think Boston weather is much better.

 

Hmm, I just looked it up, and from April-September, the weather is pretty much identical. The difference is October-March, where the weather is about 5-10 degrees colder. Their winters suck, but I doubt he'll be around much then.

[MJantomaso]

Its not like Boston shipped Lester away to a s*** team. If anything, they did Lester a solid by shipping him to a contender in a contract season. Everyone knew Bostons season was over before the trade deadline. There is no reason why he should be salty.

[Bellhorn04]

It's spilled milk now but there is no ignoring the fact that the Sox screwed this deal up long before Lester was a free agent.

 

They should have given him a sweet deal after the 2013 ended.

 

But it's their business!!

 

And Lester went out and had himself the classic 'contract year', best of his career. As did Andrew Miller.

[sk7326]

Its not like Boston shipped Lester away to a s*** team. If anything, they did Lester a solid by shipping him to a contender in a contract season. Everyone knew Bostons season was over before the trade deadline. There is no reason why he should be salty.

 

What I am sure of is - the trade had zero to do with Lester's opinion of the Sox one way or the other. He was not blindsided and he went to a contender. Earlier offers may have soured him, but not the trade.

[example1]

FO would have saved themselves a lot of money if they had negotiated in good faith prior to last Spring Training.

 

I think they just missed on this one, though I don't think Lester's numbers from 2012 and 2013 warranted a $20m offer. He ate innings (418.2 IP) but had a 4.28 ERA, a 97 ERA+, and clearly was allowing base runners as he had a 1.338 WHIP during that span. I think the Sox FO was eager to get to this off-season and have options and fewer long term obligations. Underestimating Lester's skills they offered him money closer to Clay Buchholz than Cliff Lee.

 

Moving forward, anyone who signs him for $24-$25m will be banking on the fact that Lester is now a different pitcher than he was in 2012-2013. To my eye, he turned a corner toward the end of 2013 and did look like his command really improved. His stuff was always great, but being able to put it wherever he wanted helped him get to the next level.

 

So all in all, I'm not shocked the Sox are in this position. I probably would have offered him $18m a year. In the year since he has shown the ability to be better consistently, which really makes separates a true ace from a good #1a.

[seabeachfred]

Oh I think the Red Sox are in play ... they offered 6 years, that is a credible offer. The money part of it can be fixed, but the commitment to the years is what keeps them in contention. The Red Sox obviously did not lock him up with the offer they made earlier in the year - the question is how much value does incumbency really have with an elite free agent? I don't know - but I am not sure it's all that much.

 

Let's hope your the one whose right on this and me wrong. I still Lester is going to tell Henry to screw off but I would be elated if it weren't so. I just hope all the good pitchers aren't gone before Cherington decides to get with it. Last place is a bummer and we've done that two out of the last three years and to me that is more than enough. A few first place finishes in a row would be very welcome and we need top quality pitching to get that done. BSN says things are moving slow because of Scherzer and his agent Boras but there's a way around that with a silid offer in money and years. You say the Sox offered six years and that is a credible offer. For that and another ten million to pass the Cubs might get it done. If Lester still holds out we ought to all know by then that he has no intention of coming back to Boston. That miserable low ball offer last spring might be the worst move of them all this past year.

[seabeachfred]

Do you really lose respect for Lester because he hasn't turned down the Sox offer publicly yet? It would only be "honest" if that's what he really wants to do, and as far as I know you don't know him or his real intentions. Haven't you weighed new job opportunities before? It shouldn't be easy to decide where to spend your next 6-7 years. I don't blame him for taking his time. It's an important decision with lots of money attached.

 

I also think people are underplaying the potential that the Cubs have to sign him. They have a really nice young core, an absurdly dedicated fan base, Chicago is a great city. Also, just like Schilling coming to Boston, I suspect Theo et al, are talking up how much of a hero Lester would be if he could come and pitch this team to a World Series. For a competitor like Lester that must be enticing... it doesn't hurt that it would come with $20m+ per season.

 

Well said Ex----but I have said all along I don't think he is coming back to Boston and my main point is that we should be now deeply in the hunt for Hamels and a trade with the Phillies. We need an ace and a solid No. 2 starter to compete next season. What we have now, and with some of those o thers mentioned like Santana, McCarthy, Masterson, Liriano, they will not get us to the top because they are not ace type pitchers.

[seabeachfred]

FO would have saved themselves a lot of money if they had negotiated in good faith prior to last Spring Training.

 

I think the Red Sox thought that Lester meant peanuts when he said he would give the team a home discount-----he didn't mean that miserable offer they tended him.

[Dojji]

OK Freddy boy, it's intervention time. It's time to end the personal pity party. You're starting to drag the whole forum down with your bitter rehashing of the same 5 or 6 arguments, and I say that knowing that I don't even really disagree with any of those opinions, but the sheer self-entrenched bitterness is starting to get contagious, and it needs to stop.

 

I've offered you a wager in the starting 9 thread. Look at it, and tell me which of the options you prefer. I'd be down with the "do nothing but SBF agrees to chill out a bit" option personally but let me know what you think.

Edited December 3, 2014 by Dojji

[pruneface]

Let me clear this up once and for all so that you and Jacko and anyone else who thinks I'm berating Lester can rest easily. I'm now convinced that beyond just a slight doubt that Jon is bidding the Red Sox a fair adieu. He has a right to seek out the best deal for himself and his family and Prune Face stands convicted for his stingy and tight waded offer last Spring. However, I would have more respect for Lester if he just told the Red Sox he is not interested now in coming back. That would be honest and it wouldn't impede his ability to get a big paying contract. Simply put, he has no intention of returning to the Red Sox and should be honest enough to say it to them.....IMHO.

 

The offer came before this great season. As you know, he wasn't that good the two seasons prior. Get off Henry's ass and stop spying in his bedroom. He chases his wife for exercise. And if you can't refrain from being a peeping tom at least film it. And you've been calling the FO stingy for years.

 

Let's see...

Overall payroll rank by year:

2014 - 4th

2013 - 4th

2012 - 3rd

2011 - 3rd

2010 - 2nd

2009 - 4th

2008 - 4th

2007 - 2nd

2006 - 2nd

2005 - 2nd

2004 - 2nd

2003 - 6th

Henry buys the team in 2002.

2002 - 2nd

2001 - 2nd

2000 - 7th

1999 - 6th

1998 - 7th

http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm

------------------------------------

 

But people will believe whatever the hell they want to believe.