2014 Offseason Thread

[seabeachfred]

But this whole topic is never going to get figured out because Betts isn't getting traded so it doesn't matter

 

SFF, you've been forced to defend your take on Betts while dueling with a number of posters from what I'm seeing, but you could have ended it quickly if you had posted what you wrote above from the start. Now our less than competent front office could still trade Betts but if they don't scramble their brains they ought not to. He is the leadoff man with speed we need, he is versatile and he can hit. He is a keeper.

[BSN07]

Speaking of Amaro jr, idk if it was here or another site I saw it but he may have the best nickname for a hated GM ever, ruin tomorrow jr lmao

[SoxFanForsyth]

SFF, If we were make a big move for Cole Hamels or Jonny Cuerto you can bet your last dime that both Philly and Cincy will demand Betts as part of the deal but it won't be enough. To pry either of those ace type pitchers from their current teams the Red Sox would have to expend the list to about two more prospects. The Phillies know they have to rebuild--even a GM moron like Amaro Jr. has finally figured that one out but he has made it plain he will want three good young prospects for Hamels and that to me seems written in stone. Some team will bite on that. My hope is that we sign Lester (a pipe dream?) and keep our young players like Betts and others who might be better than what the putrid Bradley and bitterly disappointing Bogaerts showed when they get their chances to crack our lineup.

 

No. Chance. In. Hell. That betts is traded for 1 year of Cueto or a 5/110 deal for Hamels. Zero chance. Negative chance. The Sox can get both of them without giving up Betts. Not either or. Both.

[jacksonianmarch]

You're insane dude. You have to give up something to get established aces. We're not talking Brandon McCarthy here. We're talking two of the best NL pitchers over the last 5 seasons. Cueto has been dominant and is still young. Getting him now allows for extension talks and a QO if he flies. Hamels is a lefty ace who turns 31, but has a reasonable (in today's market) 4 yrs left on his contract. Either deal would start with Betts. I know he's a solid talent, but you have to give up something to get established aces.

[User Name]

No. Chance. In. Hell. That betts is traded for 1 year of Cueto or a 5/110 deal for Hamels. Zero chance. Negative chance. The Sox can get both of them without giving up Betts. Not either or. Both.

 

That's assuming either team really wants to trade either pitcher, and also really wants to trade him to the Red Sox. You can't deal with these type of absolutes here and expect to accept your thought process as valid. This isn't a video game.

[BSN07]

Everyone thought TB would land a monster prospect package for Price, but they didn't. The price tags aren't always as high as the media sometimes pumps them up to be.

[Bellhorn04]

Everyone thought TB would land a monster prospect package for Price, but they didn't. The price tags aren't always as high as the media sometimes pumps them up to be.

 

Price is a perfect example. The package you get in return depends a lot on circumstances.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You're insane dude. You have to give up something to get established aces. We're not talking Brandon McCarthy here. We're talking two of the best NL pitchers over the last 5 seasons. Cueto has been dominant and is still young. Getting him now allows for extension talks and a QO if he flies. Hamels is a lefty ace who turns 31, but has a reasonable (in today's market) 4 yrs left on his contract. Either deal would start with Betts. I know he's a solid talent, but you have to give up something to get established aces.

 

No. Elite prospects go toward players that are cost controlled for multiple years. Not for a 1 year rental or a guy who already had a 5/110 deal (Hamels no trade w Red Sox would force them to guarantee his 5th year).

 

The Sox have already turned down multiple proposals from the Phillies for Hamels, and you can bet that they are turning them down because the Phillies have asked for Mookie.

 

You don't trade Mookie Betts for either of those pitchers. If you're going to spend 5/110, keep Mookie and spend 6/140 on Lester.

 

Like I said earlier, the whole trade structure is shifting heavily away from overvaluing pitching and toward overvaluing hitting. A bat first prospect in a offensive suppressed league is worth immensely more than a 1-year rental on an ace or a 5 year, slightly below market value deal on Hamels.

 

Price got Smyly and Franklin. Lackey got Craig and Kelley. Lester got 1 year of Cespedes.

 

You need to get with it. Pitching doesn't return as much as it did a couple years ago. Not even close.

[SoxFanForsyth]

That's assuming either team really wants to trade either pitcher, and also really wants to trade him to the Red Sox. You can't deal with these type of absolutes here and expect to accept your thought process as valid. This isn't a video game.

 

The Sox have already turned down multiple offers from the Phillies for Hamels.

 

Regardless, I think you misunderstood what I was saying. I was saying the Sox have the pieces to get a deal done for both Hamels and Cueto without having to deal Betts (or Bogaerts). Not that it will happen, but that, if they wanted to trade them and the Sox were interested, it can get done without Betts.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I can't stop laughing that Jackso thinks the Reds could get Betts for Cueto. That is hysterical.

 

If the Phillies ate enough of Hamels deal to get him down to a 12-13mm AAV, I can see dealing Betts then, but that's as close as it gets.

[SoxFanForsyth]

How convenient, Bowden wrote an article today about who can land Hamels and what they would have to give up.

 

http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=the-gms-office&id=10471&src=desktop&rand=ref~%7B"ref":"http://t.co/He7YkG91no"%7D&ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_jimbowdenfourpotentialtradesforcolehamels&b=1416152554390 (Insider required)

 

For the Sox here's what he writes:

 

The Red Sox are desperate to rebuild their starting rotation, and if they're unable to land Lester or James Shields, they most assuredly will pursue Hamels. The Red Sox have a strong farm system and match up well with the Phillies.

 

The Phillies should ask for Yoenis Cespedes, Deven Marrero and Anthony Ranaudo.

 

This would be a strong package for the Phillies, especially if they can extend Cespedes at the time of the trade. Cespedes brings great power and a young middle-of-the-order bat, which the Phillies desperately need. His power would play great in the bandbox that is Citizens Bank Park. Marrero is a special defensive shortstop who hit .291/.371/.433 at Double-A Portland in 68 games before his promotion to Triple-A last year. With the Phillies also having middle-infield prospect J.P. Crawford coming through their system, Marrero would solidify their middle infield for years to come and offer a nice long-term replacement for Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. Ranaudo is arguably the Red Sox's best starting pitching prospect, and he would fit in nicely in the Phillies' rotation, considering he's ready now.

 

The Red Sox might counter with Ranaudo and Marrero for Hamels. Their intention would be to keep Cespedes out of the deal, as he's an important bat for the team. Plus, they can argue the Phillies are already getting their best pitching and middle-infield prospect.

 

But the Phillies will insist on another top pitching prospect if Cespedes is out of the deal, and they'll start by asking for left-handed pitcher Henry Owens. After getting turned down, they could accept Matt Barnes as the third player in the deal.

 

A deal that could happen: Anthony Ranaudo, Deven Marrero and Matt Barnes for Hamels.

 

Wow. How strange, Jackso. NOT A SINGLE MENTION OF BETTS.

 

Almost like you are a Yankees homer and think the Sox are going to have to overpay enormously for Hamels.

 

Ranaudo, Barnes, and Marrero would be a solid package for Hamels.

[jd98]

How convenient, Bowden wrote an article today about who can land Hamels and what they would have to give up. ...

 

... Ranaudo is arguably the Red Sox's best starting pitching prospect, and he would fit in nicely in the Phillies' rotation, considering he's ready now.

 

Can't take this guy too seriously after making that statement. Nobody considers Ranaudo the Sox top pitching prospect. He's typically considered fifth, not even counting Webster or De La Rosa. And unless you consider more walks than strikeouts and 10 HR in 39 IP as a good thing, then he is not ready now.

 

If I had any confidence that the front office will not do something stupid, then I would say Betts will not be traded. To answer the question that started all the Betts talk, I think Cespedes gets traded, and they try to rotate all the other OF and give each of them plenty (too many) of days off during the early season and see how it plays out from there.

[sk7326]

Strasburg for Betts (and let's say Betts and stuff), with two years of control on Strasburg makes sense. That doesn't mean it is a go but that is the sort of deal you trade premium prospects for. I don't think the front office has any absolutes with guys on the touch/don't touch. (or more accurately I don't think Cherington does, but his superiors might) Hamels a little less so - he has more control but less peak too. The Red Sox do have the ability to take on money - and there is some value to that in and of itself.

 

As UN pointed out, cases have to be made individually. Price was sold for a handful of magic beans - and you can only surmise that there was downward pressure to deal him. Considering Friedman and Maddon's departures, it would not be a surprise that ownership had a lot of say in the move. With Lester, the return was fairly good - 2 years of starting level outfielder for 2 months of Lester when you consider the Price return. Also, with the new rules around compensation of traded guys, it suddenly made renting Lester easier (since reacquiring does not have a pick cost).

 

I think you have to consider Betts, Pedroia and Bogaerts as your every day guys and the other 5 positions are very much negotiable. Napoli and Cespedes are the most attractive guys to deal off the major league squad if you are trying to put together a deal for something you need. (aside from the kiddos)

[User Name]

In an ideal world you sign Lester and sweeten the pot by creating a package around the significant stable of blocked prospects the Red Sox currently have to get the Phillies to eat some of the salary left on Hamels' deal. They don't even need to tweak the bullpen IMO.

 

C-Vasquez

1B- Napoli

2B-Pedroia

SS-Bogaerts

3B-Betts

LF-Cespedes

CF-Castillo

RF-Victorino

DH-Ortiz

 

Bench:

OF/1B-Nava

OF/1B-Craig

UTIL-Holt

C-Ross or FA

 

Rotation:

Lester

Hamels

Kelly

Buchholz

De La Rosa/ FA acquisition (preferably Justin Masterson)

 

Bullpen:

Workman

Britton

Layne

Webster

Mujica

Tazawa

Uehara

 

This would be, in my opinion, one of the Sox' best-case scenarios entering 2015. There's a lot of positional versatility, good power potential in a league starved for power, and a decent rotation that could hold steady until the kids start arriving. It would be difficult to construct, but i don't think it's a "pipe dream" type scenario. I'm also of the opinion that moving Betts to 3B to fill a clear need would be a good idea. WMB is cooked, and Cecchini needs more time to develop.

[SoxFanForsyth]

In an ideal world you sign Lester and sweeten the pot by creating a package around the significant stable of blocked prospects the Red Sox currently have to get the Phillies to eat some of the salary left on Hamels' deal. They don't even need to tweak the bullpen IMO.

 

C-Vasquez

1B- Napoli

2B-Pedroia

SS-Bogaerts

3B-Betts

LF-Cespedes

CF-Castillo

RF-Victorino

DH-Ortiz

 

Bench:

OF/1B-Nava

OF/1B-Craig

UTIL-Holt

C-Ross or FA

 

Rotation:

Lester

Hamels

Kelly

Buchholz

De La Rosa/ FA acquisition (preferably Justin Masterson)

 

Bullpen:

Workman

Britton

Layne

Webster

Mujica

Tazawa

Uehara

 

This would be, in my opinion, one of the Sox' best-case scenarios entering 2015. There's a lot of positional versatility, good power potential in a league starved for power, and a decent rotation that could hold steady until the kids start arriving. It would be difficult to construct, but i don't think it's a "pipe dream" type scenario. I'm also of the opinion that moving Betts to 3B to fill a clear need would be a good idea. WMB is cooked, and Cecchini needs more time to develop.

 

I like this. Though I would probably give Headley 3/39 to play 3B because I'm not buying into Vic in RF w his injury history for more than 75-80 games, and that's too many games to use Brock Holt at 3B. Headley seems like a reasonably priced 3B option. Spend 23mm on Lester, 13mm on Headley, and send enough prospects to get Hamels (22mm AAV) down to 18mm AAV. That's 54mm spent between those 3. If the Sox went 20mm for Panda, 23mm for Lester, and 12-14mm for McCarthy or another #2, it's the same dollars.

[User Name]

I like this. Though I would probably give Headley 3/39 to play 3B because I'm not buying into Vic in RF w his injury history for more than 75-80 games, and that's too many games to use Brock Holt at 3B. Headley seems like a reasonably priced 3B option. Spend 23mm on Lester, 13mm on Headley, and send enough prospects to get Hamels (22mm AAV) down to 18mm AAV. That's 54mm spent between those 3. If the Sox went 20mm for Panda, 23mm for Lester, and 12-14mm for McCarthy or another #2, it's the same dollars.

 

I think Betts would provide a higher overall value than Headley at 3B, who i think is cooked, but could be wrong, specially with half his games at Fenway. Victorino's injury du jour could be easily covered by the Nava/Craig tandem (a healthy Craig should at least be able to hit lefties) with Cespedes in RF. That would limit Holt's exposure while moving him to the super-utility spot where he excels and belongs. I'd save that cash instead of spending it on Headley.

[Dojji]

Wonder what it would take to get Todd Frazier from the Reds and just avoid the whole mess of high priced FA's. Too much, probably

[User Name]

Wonder what it would take to get Todd Frazier from the Reds and just avoid the whole mess of high priced FA's. Too much, probably

 

How about just a big package for Frazier and Cueto, which would essentially solve the Red Sox' offseason were they to sign Lester? I'd overpay to get it done.

[Dojji]

There's a thought.

 

They're really weak in the outfield too. I wonder a package of Barnes, Cespedes, Nava and Cecchini would get it done. Strengthen two weak positions with quality veterans and add young replacements at the positions where they're losing talent? And I can't call any of those guys irreplaceable.

[seabeachfred]

I like this. Though I would probably give Headley 3/39 to play 3B because I'm not buying into Vic in RF w his injury history for more than 75-80 games, and that's too many games to use Brock Holt at 3B. Headley seems like a reasonably priced 3B option. Spend 23mm on Lester, 13mm on Headley, and send enough prospects to get Hamels (22mm AAV) down to 18mm AAV. That's 54mm spent between those 3. If the Sox went 20mm for Panda, 23mm for Lester, and 12-14mm for McCarthy or another #2, it's the same dollars.

 

Keep in mind the Yankees are also in on the Headley "sweepstakes" and if they are you have to be pretty certain that they will outbid us for him. Preferably, I would not want to go more than two seasons with him at third and he wants more than two years. I still feel Garin Cecchini could and should be our long range guy at that position but admittedly he may need one more year at Pawtucket to convince the Red Sox brass that this year's hiccup the first half of the season was nothing more than an aberration in a short career that has seen him hit well every place he has played. Go with Betts on third for 2015 and when Cepedes moves on he can move to left and Garin can take over third base. What I do NOT want to see is our putting a shitload of money on some expensive free agent position player while we scrimp with the low risk high reward ******** on the mound that has never seemed to work for us.

[Palodios]

I'd hesitate to trade for Frazier. 3 years for a cost controlled 30 HR bat may cost more than 1 year of a cost controlled ace. Trading those two players would mean they're going straight into rebuild mode, which means the Red Sox will need to overpay significantly.

[Dojji]

Depends on how we structure the trade. If we're dealing in MLB ready talent, they can sell the trade as an intermediate move rather than a full rebuild.

[User Name]

I'd hesitate to trade for Frazier. 3 years for a cost controlled 30 HR bat may cost more than 1 year of a cost controlled ace. Trading those two players would mean they're going straight into rebuild mode, which means the Red Sox will need to overpay significantly.

 

Sox have redundancy where the Reds need the most help: OF and MLB-ready power arms. I'd overpay in any deal that would allow me to get Cueto/Frazier, while retaining Cespedes/Betts.

[Palodios]

Sox have redundancy where the Reds need the most help: OF and MLB-ready power arms. I'd overpay in any deal that would allow me to get Cueto/Frazier, while retaining Cespedes/Betts.

 

I couldn't imagine getting Cueto+Frazier for any less than 5 good prospects. That's a big haul, especially with a team this far from the playoffs. I wouldn't deal a haul like that unless it is for a franchise altering player, or if it is midseason and it would push a team to the world series.

[User Name]

I couldn't imagine getting Cueto+Frazier for any less than 5 good prospects. That's a big haul, especially with a team this far from the playoffs. I wouldn't deal a haul like that unless it is for a franchise altering player, or if it is midseason and it would push a team to the world series.

 

I disagree, mainly if you're dealing from a position of strength/redundancy. Remember that even if you're unable to retain Cueto, you'd get a pretty decent draft pick out of it for certain, helping mitigate the blow.

[a700hitter]

There's a thought.

 

They're really weak in the outfield too. I wonder a package of Barnes, Cespedes, Nava and Cecchini would get it done. Strengthen two weak positions with quality veterans and add young replacements at the positions where they're losing talent? And I can't call any of those guys irreplaceable.

For one year of Cespedes and a bucket of chum they are not getting Frazier and Cueto.

[Palodios]

I disagree, mainly if you're dealing from a position of strength/redundancy. Remember that even if you're unable to retain Cueto, you'd get a pretty decent draft pick out of it for certain, helping mitigate the blow.

 

When you deal 5 prospects, you're not going to be able to deal from a position of strength. Cespedes, Cecchini, and 3 pitchers is a big haul. This organization has several top pitching prospects, and some will be duds, and some studs. I just have zero confidence that they will trade the right ones, because their track record has been tough lately.

[a700hitter]

When you deal 5 prospects, you're not going to be able to deal from a position of strength. Cespedes, Cecchini, and 3 pitchers is a big haul. This organization has several top pitching prospects, and some will be duds, and some studs. I just have zero confidence that they will trade the right ones, because their track record has been tough lately.

I read that other teams are reassessing evaluations of Red Sox prospects in light of the fact that several of the prospects that were highly touted. Have bombed.

[a700hitter]

We are not in a position of strength organizationally with pitching prospects. These guys are not elite prospects and they don't have great stuff. The livest arm that we have is Webster who has teriible command and a weak stomach to boot.

[SoxFanForsyth]

We are not in a position of strength organizationally with pitching prospects. These guys are not elite prospects and they don't have great stuff. The livest arm that we have is Webster who has teriible command and a weak stomach to boot.

 

Actually our best arm is, and always has been, Henry Owens. Followed by Eddy Rodriguez and Brian Johnson. Those are the elite arms. And Owens, being a top 15 prospect, is an elite prospect.

 

Everyone seems to have given up on Barnes. Not saying he is an elite prospect, just saying he's a breakout candidate this year. Don't overlook him.

 

Either way, the end of this year is when we should see the real elite pitching prospects.