2014 Offseason Thread

[User Name]

Cueto, Zimmerman, Shark all have 1 year left. Hamels is essentially signing a guy to a 5/110 deal. Betts, a potential star, the #11 BA midseason prospect (per BA if he was eligible) is an enormous overpay for any of those.

 

If you don't think that the Nats would trade 2 years of Stras for 6 years of Betts, you're out of your mind crazy. They have an enormous hole at 2B, Betts was already a 2 win player in 1/3 of a season, is projected to be a 4-4.5 win player next season, and is cost controlled.

 

I'm not sure you understand how valuable a 22 year old is with that kind of talent being shown at age 21.

 

....for less than 200 AB's. Again, massive overvaluing based on a SSS. Let's be realistic here. You don't get to jump Jacko's bones for being a pom-pom waiving homer with assesments like this, man. If you were a GM and you traded Strasburg for Betts straight up, well you'd probably be out of a job the next day.

 

As for the "gaping hole" at 2B the Nats have, Anthony Rendon is actually a natural 2B, so if anything, their hole is either 3B or 2B depending on what's available and whether Zimmerman can actually throw.

[SoxFanForsyth]

....for less than 200 AB's. Again, massive overvaluing based on a SSS. Let's be realistic here. You don't get to jump Jacko's bones for being a pom-pom waiving homer with assesments like this, man. If you were a GM and you traded Strasburg for Betts straight up, well you'd probably be out of a job the next day.

 

As for the "gaping hole" at 2B the Nats have, Anthony Rendon is actually a natural 2B, so if anything, their hole is either 3B or 2B depending on what's available and whether Zimmerman can actually throw.

 

Ok. I'm a homer.

 

Then so is Dave Cameron of Fangraphs:

 

 

And Alex Speier in a recent chat, when asked about trading Stras for Betts.

 

Alex Speier: More seriously -- this is, I suppose, the type of move that makes sense to consider the top level of Sox' young chips (Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, probably in that order) whom the team would be most reluctant to deal. They'd only consider doing so for a superstar-caliber performer in his prime. Still, would you rather have two prime years of Strasburg for six of Betts, or either another pitcher (whether one of the free agents or a starter who was in a tier below Strasburg) and Betts? My inclination is to say that the only guy who'd be worth Betts for two years is Stanton. But, this is the sort of conversation that does make you go hmmmmm.... And I do wonder whether the Nats will make either Stras or Zimmerman available.

 

So, huh, maybe I'm not such a Pom pom waving homer after all.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Or maybe you're just smarter than the head of Fangraphs and one of the most plugged in best writers in all of baseball.

 

Sorry. I'll go ahead and say no, you're not. No offense, neither am I, but you're absolutely wrong here.

[User Name]

Actually, that doesn't really change much. Betts is still unproven to a large degree at the ML level. The main issue here is control time, and that's a valid argument, but the Strasburg tier of pitcher for two years offers a hell of a lot more certainty than a guy who has less than 200 AB's at the ML level.

 

Let me say though, that this doesn't contradict my idea that Betts is the best OF on the Sox roster right now. My point of contention is your usual overvaluing and rose-colored glasses view of Sox prospects. Betts may (and probably will) struggle, and then, most of the guys who wrote these articles will be second guessing themselves like they did with Bogaerts, who you similarly hyped last year using similar sources of support.

 

"Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it".

 

For the record, i'm not saying Betts won't eventually reach all-star levels of performance, i'm just saying he may not do it in 2015, or even 2016. You can't always just look at grading curves and aggregate values.

 

But hey, wave them pom-poms man.

 

Note: The pom-poms comment was made in jest

Edited November 15, 2014 by User Name?

[User Name]

Or maybe you're just smarter than the head of Fangraphs and one of the most plugged in best writers in all of baseball.

 

Sorry. I'll go ahead and say no, you're not. No offense, neither am I, but you're absolutely wrong here.

 

He's been wrong before. Would you argue otherwise? Two words: Carl Crawford. Remember that argument? A Dave Cameron article arguing he was worth it was one of your main pieces of contention. Funny how that works.

 

That's the beauty of prospect/young player valuation. It's not an exact science.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Actually, that doesn't really change much. Betts is still unproven to a large degree at the ML level. The main issue here is control time, and that's a valid argument, but the Strasburg tier of pitcher for two years offers a hell of a lot more certainty than a guy who has less than 200 AB's at the ML level.

 

Let me say though, that this doesn't contradict my idea that Betts is the best OF on the Sox roster right now. My point of contention is your usual overvaluing and rose-colored glasses view of Sox prospects. Betts may (and probably will) struggle, and then, most of the guys who wrote these articles will be second guessing themselves like they did with Bogaerts, who you similarly hyped last year using similar sources of support.

 

"Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it".

 

For the record, i'm not saying Betts won't eventually reach all-star levels of performance, i'm just saying he may not do it in 2015, or even 2016. You can't always just look at grading curves and aggregate values.

 

But hey, wave them pom-poms man.

 

No, what I provided was validation that I am not the only one who values 6 years of Betts higher than 2 years of Strasburg.

 

If teams never made trades because of MLB time, no prospects would ever be traded.

 

If I am waving pom poms, then so are Alex Speier and Dave Cameron, plain and simple. They are both extremely unbiased and plugged in more than any couch GM is on this site.

 

And yeah, I was touting Bogaerts and only people on here who don't understand that he should have been in Salem, not Boston, are the ones giving up on him.

 

Just because Bogaerts didn't come to immediate fruition doesn't mean that he's not going to, or that I, or anyone else who rated him extremely highly, was wrong about him.

 

Betts for Strasburg, I would hesitate to do, and so would Cherrington, but I guarantee you that if Stras was available, and the Sox offered Betts alone, it would get done.

 

Nobody is saying Betts, right now, is better than these pitchers. I'm saying that 6 years of Betts is likely to provide more value to this team than 2 of Strasburg or 1 year of the other guys. And let's not even talk about Hamels. If Amaro even mentioned Betts and not 'and we will eat 55mm of his 5/110' then it's a non starter.

[User Name]

I get that, and i am a huge supporter of Bogaerts. What i'm telling you, like my above post explains, is that not only do their opinions not necessarily provide validation (they are, after all, opinions), but you have to look at these proposals on a trade-by-trade basis.

 

A Strasburg trade specifically would be a win-now move for Washington. Why would they make a trade for a player who has a star-level ceiling but is unproven? The whole point is to not endure growing pains with their championship window open. How does that make any sense?

 

But alas, let's agree to disagree. After all, i think both Bogaerts and Betts will become AS caliber players, just not immediately.

[dupree]

In 2011 Josh Reddick came up and had a hot streak just like Betts. In that offseason he was traded for a closer. Given he had less years of control and was older in age than Betts. But still he had a 30 more games than Betts and everyone was praising him the same as Betts and if two more years of control and younger in age means obtaining an ace instead of a closer as Reddick did I'd hope Ben pulled the trigger.

 

A deal of Betts for Strasburg straight up would never happen. The Nats are going for it all next year and are just one or two pieces away from a championship. Plus Strasburg and Harper are the faces of the franchise. I have said time and time again that a deal for Tyron Ross would be ideal but if Jordan Zimmerman could be in place that would be alright as well.

 

Betts stock is definitely up and teams love young controllable players but pitching and defense win in October. With the Sox having a lineup of Ortiz Cespedes and possibly Sandoval the offense will be there to score enough runs. I hope Castillo can live up to what the FO paid and be our CF for years to come and light a spark at the top of the order, this year showed how much Ellsbury meant to this team when he wasnt there. Let's hope a deal using Betts gets done and brings in another Ace caliber pitcher along with the signing of Lester to be the 1 - 2 at the top of the rotation and then another sign or trade for a #3 with Buch and Kelly filling in the 4 and 5 slots.

[BSN07]

In 2011 Josh Reddick came up and had a hot streak just like Betts. In that offseason he was traded for a closer. Given he had less years of control and was older in age than Betts. But still he had a 30 more games than Betts and everyone was praising him the same as Betts and if two more years of control and younger in age means obtaining an ace instead of a closer as Reddick did I'd hope Ben pulled the trigger.

 

A deal of Betts for Strasburg straight up would never happen. The Nats are going for it all next year and are just one or two pieces away from a championship. Plus Strasburg and Harper are the faces of the franchise. I have said time and time again that a deal for Tyron Ross would be ideal but if Jordan Zimmerman could be in place that would be alright as well.

 

Betts stock is definitely up and teams love young controllable players but pitching and defense win in October. With the Sox having a lineup of Ortiz Cespedes and possibly Sandoval the offense will be there to score enough runs. I hope Castillo can live up to what the FO paid and be our CF for years to come and light a spark at the top of the order, this year showed how much Ellsbury meant to this team when he wasnt there. Let's hope a deal using Betts gets done and brings in another Ace caliber pitcher along with the signing of Lester to be the 1 - 2 at the top of the rotation and then another sign or trade for a #3 with Buch and Kelly filling in the 4 and 5 slots.

 

Padres are reportedly willing to listen on Andrew Cashner and TySon Ross. Not sure what it take to land them. Betts for Cashner be interesting although I'm not sure about Cashners injury history. He missed time with a sore elbow and sore shoulder last year.

[dupree]

Between the two I'd prefer Ross over Cashner

[User Name]

In 2011 Josh Reddick came up and had a hot streak just like Betts. In that offseason he was traded for a closer. Given he had less years of control and was older in age than Betts. But still he had a 30 more games than Betts and everyone was praising him the same as Betts and if two more years of control and younger in age means obtaining an ace instead of a closer as Reddick did I'd hope Ben pulled the trigger.

 

A deal of Betts for Strasburg straight up would never happen. The Nats are going for it all next year and are just one or two pieces away from a championship. Plus Strasburg and Harper are the faces of the franchise. I have said time and time again that a deal for Tyron Ross would be ideal but if Jordan Zimmerman could be in place that would be alright as well.

 

Betts stock is definitely up and teams love young controllable players but pitching and defense win in October. With the Sox having a lineup of Ortiz Cespedes and possibly Sandoval the offense will be there to score enough runs. I hope Castillo can live up to what the FO paid and be our CF for years to come and light a spark at the top of the order, this year showed how much Ellsbury meant to this team when he wasnt there. Let's hope a deal using Betts gets done and brings in another Ace caliber pitcher along with the signing of Lester to be the 1 - 2 at the top of the rotation and then another sign or trade for a #3 with Buch and Kelly filling in the 4 and 5 slots.

 

There's no comparison between Reddick and Betts tool and skillset-wise.

 

Also, Betts for Ross is highway robbery. Ross isn't very good. It's funny how easily you're dismissing Betts but not Ross, who's a Petco park baby.

[User Name]

Tyson Ross splits:

 

2014:

 

Home: 1.88 ERA

Away: 3.79 (league average) ERA.

 

Career:

 

Home: 2.55 ERA

Away: 4.74 ERA

[jacksonianmarch]

You're not really seeing reality here. Betts for Cueto is a six overpay? When is dealing a SSS big leaguer with promise for an established ace an overpay? Unf***ingbelievable. Dealing for any of those guys right now is gonna cost a fortune due to QO return. The worth goes down at mid season. And I am sorry I used tweener the way I did. Ive used it in a few different ways because I've seen it used in a few different ways. I've seen it used to describe a AAAA player, which Betts doesn't look to be. I've also seen it used as a guy like Prado, who doesn't really have a set position and plays all over the diamond, but is in the lineup regularly. Also, how do we know he's a plus defender at 2b? If he was a slick gloveman, wouldn't they at least be considering him at 3b?

[jacksonianmarch]

And Betts for Strasburg is downright laughable.

[Bellhorn04]

I think a realistic hope for Betts is that he's a 4-5 WAR player, roughly equivalent to Ellsbury level productivity - hopefully more consistent.

[BSN07]

And Betts for Strasburg is downright laughable.

 

I agree that deal makes no sense at all.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You're not really seeing reality here. Betts for Cueto is a six overpay? When is dealing a SSS big leaguer with promise for an established ace an overpay? Unf***ingbelievable. Dealing for any of those guys right now is gonna cost a fortune due to QO return. The worth goes down at mid season. And I am sorry I used tweener the way I did. Ive used it in a few different ways because I've seen it used in a few different ways. I've seen it used to describe a AAAA player, which Betts doesn't look to be. I've also seen it used as a guy like Prado, who doesn't really have a set position and plays all over the diamond, but is in the lineup regularly. Also, how do we know he's a plus defender at 2b? If he was a slick gloveman, wouldn't they at least be considering him at 3b?

 

It's his arm they are worried about not his glove at 3B, although I do wish they would at least see what he's got over there

[SoxFanForsyth]

And Betts for Strasburg is downright laughable.

 

Ok. Then a ton of expert analysts (not Harold Reynolds) but guys who work for Fangraphs have said no to a downright laughable trade proposal.

 

Trading a 6 year guy who projects to be a perennial 4+ win player with peaks of 5-6, with risk of uncertainty due to age for a guy who's WAR has been 4.3, 3.3, 4.1 the past 3 years, has thrown 200 IP exactly once in his career, has made more than 30 starts exactly once in his career, and you're only getting 3 years out of him?

 

It would be the kind of deal that would make the Sox think about it. straught up, if the Nats were selling Stras, they take that deal instantly. Betts, if he was eligible, would be a top 10 easy prospect, and he's shown that he can handle the big leagues just fine without peripherals that are artificially inflated. You don't trade him for 1 year of ANY of those pitchers. It would be a disgusting overpay to give Betts for Cueto, who is the best of that bunch.

 

The reason you don't count on small sample sizes is because peripherals can get skewed and it takes a while for normalization of those peripherals. Please show me why Betts peripherals were skewed and which ones will normalize. Because you won't be able to.

 

Betts for Strasburg? I might pass, don't like the years of control. If I had Stras for 3 years I would take it. 2? Not sure, but probably pass.

[SoxFanForsyth]

But this whole topic is never going to get figured out because Betts isn't getting traded so it doesn't matter

[Spudboy]

I think a realistic hope for Betts is that he's a 4-5 WAR player, roughly equivalent to Ellsbury level productivity - hopefully more consistent.

 

That is a good target for Betts. A good top of the order bat with decent speed.

 

While I am reluctant to say any player is "can't miss", Betts has adjusted at every level so far. And that includes the Majors. The kid can flat out hit and is rarely fooled by big league pitching. This is his primary value. hit, get on base, get the line moving.

 

He is far from a finished product at 21. He is not a highly skilled defensive player at 2nd his "natural position" and is just beginning to learn CF on the big stage, not in the Gulf Coast league.

 

I'm hoping to see him at 3rd or CF with one or two OF traded and Castillo in RF or in the Minors.

 

For the record, I don't see Betts by himself landing a true number one pitcher. Highly regarded prospect are not rare or hard to come by. Consistently high performing starting pitching is always at a premium.

[BSN07]

But this whole topic is never going to get figured out because Betts isn't getting traded so it doesn't matter

 

I think it's more unlikely Stras gets traded this off season.

[SoxFanForsyth]

That is a good target for Betts. A good top of the order bat with decent speed.

 

While I am reluctant to say any player is "can't miss", Betts has adjusted at every level so far. And that includes the Majors. The kid can flat out hit and is rarely fooled by big league pitching. This is his primary value. hit, get on base, get the line moving.

 

He is far from a finished product at 21. He is not a highly skilled defensive player at 2nd his "natural position" and is just beginning to learn CF on the big stage, not in the Gulf Coast league.

 

I'm hoping to see him at 3rd or CF with one or two OF traded and Castillo in RF or in the Minors.

 

For the record, I don't see Betts by himself landing a true number one pitcher. Highly regarded prospect are not rare or hard to come by. Consistently high performing starting pitching is always at a premium.

 

I think the problem here is that offense is down and pitching related injuries have skyrocketed in recent years, so an everyday offense first player has gained s ton of value while the value of pitchers has decreased. Just look at what the Tigers gave up for Price, or the Cards for Lackey.

 

The only way that the A's gave up Russell (who has about the same value as Betts) is because they got 1.5 years of Samardzija AND Jason Hammel, who had posted a 2.98 ERA with the Cubs prior to the trade. So essentially the Cubs gave up two guys who were performing as aces for 1 elite level prospect.

 

The trade value of players is shifting significantly from overvaluing pitchers to now overvaluing hitters, and if you have a young, elite prospect hitter who has shown, even in a SSS, that he can adjust to the big leagues, that's going to land you an ace.

[Spudboy]

Ultimately, it comes down to an individual team's needs.

[User Name]

I think the problem here is that offense is down and pitching related injuries have skyrocketed in recent years, so an everyday offense first player has gained s ton of value while the value of pitchers has decreased. Just look at what the Tigers gave up for Price, or the Cards for Lackey.

 

The only way that the A's gave up Russell (who has about the same value as Betts) is because they got 1.5 years of Samardzija AND Jason Hammel, who had posted a 2.98 ERA with the Cubs prior to the trade. So essentially the Cubs gave up two guys who were performing as aces for 1 elite level prospect.

 

The trade value of players is shifting significantly from overvaluing pitchers to now overvaluing hitters, and if you have a young, elite prospect hitter who has shown, even in a SSS, that he can adjust to the big leagues, that's going to land you an ace.

 

This is actually a very good point, but the price of elite, under-30 pitching is still sky-high.

[User Name]

Ultimately, it comes down to an individual team's needs.

 

Also, this.^ As i said in a post above, these trade ideas need to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

[jacksonianmarch]

Guys, I apologize. I forgot that Betts is gonna be a 20X all star like Lars Anderson

[SoxFanForsyth]

Guys, I apologize. I forgot that Betts is gonna be a 20X all star like Lars Anderson

 

Yeah because that's a good comp.

 

You never did tell me what part of his peripherals made him a regression candidate

[User Name]

Guys, I apologize. I forgot that Betts is gonna be a 20X all star like Lars Anderson

 

Apology accepted.

[Spudboy]

Boy did Lars Anderson fade to obscurity. He bounced around in 4 or so organizations and now is a free agent without much hope of anything good happening.

 

That's what can happen to a prospect.

[seabeachfred]

He did say that we would need more than Betts to get an ace, which is laughable.

 

SFF, If we were make a big move for Cole Hamels or Jonny Cuerto you can bet your last dime that both Philly and Cincy will demand Betts as part of the deal but it won't be enough. To pry either of those ace type pitchers from their current teams the Red Sox would have to expend the list to about two more prospects. The Phillies know they have to rebuild--even a GM moron like Amaro Jr. has finally figured that one out but he has made it plain he will want three good young prospects for Hamels and that to me seems written in stone. Some team will bite on that. My hope is that we sign Lester (a pipe dream?) and keep our young players like Betts and others who might be better than what the putrid Bradley and bitterly disappointing Bogaerts showed when they get their chances to crack our lineup.