2014 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

Who can figure out the thought process of the Marlins organization. They have made so many inexplicable illogical decsions. If anyone had a brain there, they would extend Stanton long term. He is the type of player that fans will pay to see.

[Bellhorn04]

The question is, can a team like the Marlins afford to break the bank for one player? Their total payroll for 2014 was less than $50 million. Stanton will be looking for around $30 million per, which means he'll be taking up about half the annual payroll. It leaves them little money to spend anywhere else.

[sk7326]

I've been arguing that Lester is a #1 pitcher for years. After 2013, I really shouldn't need to anymore.

 

2008-2010 he absolutely was. 2011-2013 he was a distinct step down from that (although 2013 was more one rotten month). 2014 was his best work since 2009.

 

I tend not to go with top 20% only because in general the gap between 1% and 10% is larger than 10% to 20% - just how bell curves and such go. The key question when looking to acquire him is whether he can be his 2011-12 version four years from now. To me that's a safe bet, and for the next 2 or 3 years we'll get something superior to that. His worst case to me is current day John Lackey - durable, compete his arse off and will give you 30 honest starts.

 

To me in this day and age, durability is a big key (granted I am also advocating an upside play on Brett Anderson, but there you go). The teams that have won titles generally have not had much upheaval in their rotation. They did not always have super elite #1s, but they at least 3 or 4 guys who could stare down a lineup and turn it over a couple of times. Take some of those guys with high quality defense and the run prevention is pretty darn good. It's what got Kansas City to within a game of the title, transcending Ned Yost's staggeringly bad tactics.

[sk7326]

The question is, can a team like the Marlins afford to break the bank for one player? Their total payroll for 2014 was less than $50 million. Stanton will be looking for around $30 million per, which means he'll be taking up about half the annual payroll. It leaves them little money to spend anywhere else.

 

They missed on the good chance to climb all over Stanton. Like the Pirates did with McCutchen ... the time to pounce is early, give him more money than the rookie scale would have, and try to buy out his arb raises and (maybe) a year of FA. It will be hard to keep him. Dodgers far and away the most likely match though.

 

One of the quirks about the Marlins is that while the ownership is one of the worst in the game and the management at the (Owner-Survivor Contestant) level is shaky, the baseball operations guys have largely been pretty good. It is a horrible market - so extending Stanton on its own is difficult. To use econ jargon, the marginal value of a win there is really low (comparatively in Boston it is excellent).

 

Historically in these sorts of dumps, the Marlins have wanted power arms. This is the organization that grew Brad Penny, Josh Beckett, AJ Burnett, Anibal Sanchez (of course, they got him for Josh Beckett - but describes the sort they target in trade), Jose Fernandez. The Red Sox have Cuban guys who can help the Miami marketing sure - but the system, while deep with pitching, does not seem to have the fireballer sorts that the Marlins have long chased.

[jd98]

I'd like to see them get Tulo for 3B(I feel moving him from SS could help keep him on the field) but if the Rox price would seem to be too high for a player with injury issues.

 

Tulo said that he would retire before switching positions.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Who can figure out the thought process of the Marlins organization. They have made so many inexplicable illogical decsions. If anyone had a brain there, they would extend Stanton long term. He is the type of player that fans will pay to see.

 

Can't extend a player who doesn't want to be there. This is from August.

 

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/08/26/giancarlo-stanton-on-the-marlins-success-five-months-doesnt-change-five-years/

[a700hitter]

The question is, can a team like the Marlins afford to break the bank for one player? Their total payroll for 2014 was less than $50 million. Stanton will be looking for around $30 million per, which means he'll be taking up about half the annual payroll. It leaves them little money to spend anywhere else.

 

If the Marlins weren't such apoorly run organization they would have more revenue to support a bigger payroll. Stanton's price isn't the problem. The buffoons running their organization are the problem.

[seabeachfred]

The Red Sox won the 2013 title without a classic #1. Lester played up to it in spots (as did Lackey) but their numbers were more good #2 than your King Felix/Kershaw rare air. (Lester had a remarkable bounce back this season to that sort of air) What you do need is to keep putting guys out there who give you a chance. Red Sox lineup needs fewer automatic outs ... in 2013 there were basically zero when you got to the end of the season. Sandoval or Ramirez can address that, and that is important. It's not an either-or thing here. I think they are in on Lester, but given his draft compensation status, so will a lot of other teams.

 

You might not call Jon Lester a classic No. 1 but in my opinion when he overcame his doldrums at the beginning of the summer of 2013 he became an authentic No. 1 pitcher and there can be no argument that he didn't maintain the role throughout the playoffs and WS and then well into the past season before he got low balled and traded out of town in what I think was the stupidest and most ignorant move Prune and Co. have made since they've owned the team.

[seabeachfred]

Tulo said that he would retire before switching positions.

 

This is strictly a minority opinion and no one knows that better than I do but I would trade for Tulo to play shortstop for us and be willing to include Bogaerts in such a deal. There is a chance I will be forced to do a mea culpa next fall and admit I screwed up low rating Xander but from what I saw of the guy this season, his ineffective fielding, his brutal lack of hitting with men on base and the way he cratered when moved to third base----all of these convinced me that I might have been right, that he was a choker. Now in his behalf it is possible that the Red Sox saw more in him that he was ready for the big time when in fact he needed another season at Pawtucket. Still I think Tulo would thrive in Boston, and as a fellow alumnus of Long Beach State I have a personal stake in wanting him playing for the Red Sox.

[seabeachfred]

If the Marlins weren't such apoorly run organization they would have more revenue to support a bigger payroll. Stanton's price isn't the problem. The buffoons running their organization are the problem.

 

Keep that last sentence ready to use again. You may need it to describe the ones running this organization.

[GomesBeard]

This is strictly a minority opinion and no one knows that better than I do but I would trade for Tulo to play shortstop for us and be willing to include Bogaerts in such a deal. There is a chance I will be forced to do a mea culpa next fall and admit I screwed up low rating Xander but from what I saw of the guy this season, his ineffective fielding, his brutal lack of hitting with men on base and the way he cratered when moved to third base----all of these convinced me that I might have been right, that he was a choker. Now in his behalf it is possible that the Red Sox saw more in him that he was ready for the big time when in fact he needed another season at Pawtucket. Still I think Tulo would thrive in Boston, and as a fellow alumnus of Long Beach State I have a personal stake in wanting him playing for the Red Sox.

 

So who would play SS for the 60 or so games a year that Tulo is hurt? I like him too, but his injury history scares me. And Bogaerts is only 22 - just turned last month... I think his upside is massive and that if he stays in one position - either SS or 3B - he will be a good player for us for a long time.

[sk7326]

Keep that last sentence ready to use again. You may need it to describe the ones running this organization.

 

Nobody is perfect, but the vast majority of the ways you can fill "The best ________________ the Red Sox ever had" involve things which occurred since this ownership bought the team.

 

Tulo's injury history is so rich that it infects his claim to "10 best players on earth". I know we disagree on Bogaerts (or more generally disagree on what a 21 year old's accomplishment says about the next ten), so no reason to rehash that. The need for any sort of 3B and quality starting pitching certainly trumps both. My earlier point on Lester is not to say he is not a #1 pitcher (clearly he is from recent accomplishment) but that the Red Sox were the wire to wire best team in baseball in 2013 on the strength of a balanced rotation and lineup which never gave teams a break - there were no sure outs and there was no starter who was a walkover (even Dempster). The holes in both are significant - but fixable when you have the money the Sox have and the inventory. The team is an interesting bounceback candidate - but it is not turnkey obviously.

[a700hitter]

Nobody is perfect, but the vast majority of the ways you can fill "The best ________________ the Red Sox ever had" involve things which occurred since this ownership bought the team.

.

On balance, this ownership has had some of the worst performances since the pre-1967 Impossible Dream team of the early 1960's and since pre-Yawkey years of the 1920s and 30s. The two 90 loss seasons in three yeaTulo's injury history is so rich that it infects his claim to "10 best players on earth". I know we disagree on Bogaerts (or more generally disagree on what a 21 year old's accomplishment says about the next ten), so no reason to rehash that. The need for any sort of 3B and quality starting pitching certainly trumps both. My earlier point on Lester is not to say he is not a #1 pitcher (clearly he is from recent accomplishment) but that the Red Sox were the wire to wire best team in baseball in 2013 on the strength of a balanced rotation and lineup which never gave teams a break - there were no sure outs and there was no starter who was a walkover (even Dempster). The holes in both are significant - but fixable when you have the money the Sox have and the inventory. The team is an interesting bounceback candidate - but it is not rs has not been done since the early 1960s. The two last place finishes has not been done since pre-Yawkey days. The record is far from all positive.

[Palodios]

On balance, this ownership has had some of the worst performances since the pre-1967 ......

 

And to Sk7's point, many of the best performances as well. It seems like very single year, this organization has felt like it is only one or two pieces away. They've made plenty of mistakes and it hasn't always come together, but they've built so many teams with the potential to go all the way. I don't think this year will be any different.

[sk7326]

On balance, this ownership has had some of the worst performances since the pre-1967 Impossible Dream team of the early 1960's and since pre-Yawkey years of the 1920s and 30s. The two 90 loss seasons in three yeaTulo's injury history is so rich that it infects his claim to "10 best players on earth". I know we disagree on Bogaerts (or more generally disagree on what a 21 year old's accomplishment says about the next ten), so no reason to rehash that. The need for any sort of 3B and quality starting pitching certainly trumps both. My earlier point on Lester is not to say he is not a #1 pitcher (clearly he is from recent accomplishment) but that the Red Sox were the wire to wire best team in baseball in 2013 on the strength of a balanced rotation and lineup which never gave teams a break - there were no sure outs and there was no starter who was a walkover (even Dempster). The holes in both are significant - but fixable when you have the money the Sox have and the inventory. The team is an interesting bounceback candidate - but it is not rs has not been done since the early 1960s. The two last place finishes has not been done since pre-Yawkey days. The record is far from all positive.

 

A couple of the worst (indeed, the only two seasons under this regime where the Red Sox were fewer than 10 games ABOVE .500) and all of the best ... And one of those bad seasons was driven by injuries which would correct itself the next season to great effect. The regime is not perfect, and it hasn't been all positive. It has also been 13 seasons with 3 championships, 7 playoff berths and only 3 seasons where the summah was ruined before the last two weeks of September. Only the Yanks have had as many consistent bites at the apple, and only the Giants have actually won it as often. (and the Cardinals in the middle) Heck, this regime even caught a couple of post-peak but still great Pedro years (if you want the transcendent individual).

 

I have issues with management and I think they pay attention to TV ratings and talk radio too much ... but as Bob Ryan put it once, this era is the "good old days" I'll be ranting about to my daughter when she is a teenager and starting to hate me a decade or so from now.

Edited November 7, 2014 by sk7326

[sk7326]

Key - if Hanley Ramirez is committed to playing 3B, he becomes every bit as interesting as Sandoval. i think he's the better player then due to on-base skills but Sandoval's age (28) has to be considered too.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox issue in 2012 was underachievement. There wasn't a personnel issue. 2014 was a personnel issue. Now, they're even more undermanned without Lackey and Lester. Without major spending on the mound, the sox won't be in contention in 2015

[Bellhorn04]

The sox issue in 2012 was underachievement. There wasn't a personnel issue. 2014 was a personnel issue. Now, they're even more undermanned without Lackey and Lester. Without major spending on the mound, the sox won't be in contention in 2015

 

I think everybody and their dog knows the Sox have to acquire 2 good starters for 2015.

[sk7326]

The sox issue in 2012 was underachievement. There wasn't a personnel issue. 2014 was a personnel issue. Now, they're even more undermanned without Lackey and Lester. Without major spending on the mound, the sox won't be in contention in 2015

 

2012: 141 games of Pedroia, 90 games of Ortiz, 74 games of Ellsbury, 0 starts of Lackey

2013: 160 games of Pedroia, 137 or Ortiz, 134 of Ellsbury, 29 starts of Lackey

 

Their three best offensive players and their 2nd best starter missed a metric ton of action - it was a personnel problem. When you are dreaming of Pedro Ciriaco, it's a personnel problem.

[Spudboy]

So it has been let known by his agent that Sandoval wants a 6 year deal.

 

How do people here now feel about the Sox signing the 29 year old "245 lb. ( cough, cough )" 3rd baseman?

 

Is he worth the risk of a six year deal? I say no, he is not. I would not sign him to more than 4 years in the range of $60. mil.

 

He's just about an average player. Not exactly Beltre.

[GomesBeard]

So it has been let known by his agent that Sandoval wants a 6 year deal.

 

How do people here now feel about the Sox signing the 29 year old "245 lb. ( cough, cough )" 3rd baseman?

 

Is he worth the risk of a six year deal? I say no, he is not. I would not sign him to more than 4 years in the range of $60. mil.

 

He's just about an average player. Not exactly Beltre.

 

That's a tough one. The guy is a proven post-season performer, and a switch-hitter, providing the lefty the Sox want in the line-up. He only averages 66 RBI's a year, although that might be more a function of the fact that the Giants struggle offensively during the regular season, and he does average .294. Defensively, he's probably average at best, and you wonder about that weight as he ages... But I would pay him that money before I paid Hanley - he apparently is looking for superstar money, and he ain't a superstar.

[jd98]

The sox issue in 2012 was underachievement. There wasn't a personnel issue. 2014 was a personnel issue. Now, they're even more undermanned without Lackey and Lester. Without major spending on the mound, the sox won't be in contention in 2015

 

2014 was underachievement big time. Maybe the personnel could have been better, but every single one of the expected regulars (hitters) significantly underperformed what was expected. Every single one.

 

To keep it simple, I'm just going to show OPS. The 1st number is career OPS, the 2nd is last 3 years, and the 3rd is 2014 with Red Sox.

 

A.J. Pierzynski .750/.759/.633

David Ross .764/.746/.629

Mike Napoli .859/.895/.789

Dustin Pedroia .823/.816/.712

Will Middlebrooks .756/.756/.522

Xander Bogaerts .684/.684/.660 (only 50 PA before 2014)

Shane Victorino .774/.780/.685

Grady Sizemore .830/.706/.612 (last 3 years consist of only 295 PA in 2011)

Jackie Bradley .617/.617/.531 (only 107 PA before 2014)

Daniel Nava .782/.782/.706

Jonny Gomes .788/.781/.683

David Ortiz .930/.972/.873

 

Funny that the only one even close to their past numbers was Bogaerts, but it's safe to say more was expected of him than the .684 OPS in 50 PA from 2013.

 

Can't leave out the wonderful signing of Drew.

Stephen Drew .764/.725/.583

 

Holt came out of nowhere, and was the only one to play regularly early and not underperform.

Brock Holt .601/.601/.711 (only 144 PA before 2014)

 

For completeness, the only other players to not join the team late, and get meaningful number of AB

Jonathan Herrera .658/.654/.596

Mike Carp .781/.788/.599

Edited November 7, 2014 by jd98

[sk7326]

So it has been let known by his agent that Sandoval wants a 6 year deal.

 

How do people here now feel about the Sox signing the 29 year old "245 lb. ( cough, cough )" 3rd baseman?

 

Is he worth the risk of a six year deal? I say no, he is not. I would not sign him to more than 4 years in the range of $60. mil.

 

He's just about an average player. Not exactly Beltre.

 

I don't love it. That said, he is 28 and will not be 29 until late next season. He is young by free agent standards, and you have a chance to get some improvement out of him (even if it just from a little better conditioning). He is no Manny Machado at 3B, but generally good. (below average range, sure handed with the stuff he can reach) He makes a lot of contact, and given the offensive trends of the last couple of years - that might carry a bit more weight than it used to. 3B is very thin across the league. Personally, I like Hanley better among the 3B free agents in isolation (he's the best position player in this class by a solid margin), but Sandoval is probably a better bet to carry his value through a 5-6 year deal.

[a700hitter]

A couple of the worst (indeed, the only two seasons under this regime where the Red Sox were fewer than 10 games ABOVE .500) and all of the best ... And one of those bad seasons was driven by injuries which would correct itself the next season to great effect. The regime is not perfect, and it hasn't been all positive. It has also been 13 seasons with 3 championships, 7 playoff berths and only 3 seasons where the summah was ruined before the last two weeks of September. Only the Yanks have had as many consistent bites at the apple, and only the Giants have actually won it as often. (and the Cardinals in the middle) Heck, this regime even caught a couple of post-peak but still great Pedro years (if you want the transcendent individual).

 

I have issues with management and I think they pay attention to TV ratings and talk radio too much ... but as Bob Ryan put it once, this era is the "good old days" I'll be ranting about to my daughter when she is a teenager and starting to hate me a decade or so from now.

In the 35 seasons between 1967 and the acquisition of the team by current ownership, there were only 6 seasons where they played below .500 ball (3 in the Butch Hobson years aka the Dark Age). The other 3 seasons wear scattered --1983, 1987 and 1997. They had one 90 loss season in those 35 seasons and no last place finishes in that period. They also had 6 Division Championships as compared to 2 Division Championships in the 13 seasons since current ownership took over.

 

As for the good old days... I am a Red Sox fan. They are all good old days. Watching Schilling, Pedro in the same rotation, those were the good old days. Watching Rice, Lynn and Evans patrol the outfield on the same team as Yaz was the good old days. Watching Wade Boggs win all those batting championships were good old days. Watching Clemens strike out 20 guys in a game twice those were good old days. They were all good old days. I am a Red Sox fan,

Edited November 8, 2014 by a700hitter

[a700hitter]

2014 was underachievement big time. Maybe the personnel could have been better, but every single one of the expected regulars (hitters) significantly underperformed what was expected. Every single one.

 

To keep it simple, I'm just going to show OPS. The 1st number is career OPS, the 2nd is last 3 years, and the 3rd is 2014 with Red Sox.

 

A.J. Pierzynski .750/.759/.633

David Ross .764/.746/.629

Mike Napoli .859/.895/.789

Dustin Pedroia .823/.816/.712

Will Middlebrooks .756/.756/.522

Xander Bogaerts .684/.684/.660 (only 50 PA before 2014)

Shane Victorino .774/.780/.685

Grady Sizemore .830/.706/.612 (last 3 years consist of only 295 PA in 2011)

Jackie Bradley .617/.617/.531 (only 107 PA before 2014)

Daniel Nava .782/.782/.706

Jonny Gomes .788/.781/.683

David Ortiz .930/.972/.873

 

Funny that the only one even close to their past numbers was Bogaerts, but it's safe to say more was expected of him than the .684 OPS in 50 PA from 2013.

 

Can't leave out the wonderful signing of Drew.

Stephen Drew .764/.725/.583

 

Holt came out of nowhere, and was the only one to play regularly early and not underperform.

Brock Holt .601/.601/.711 (only 144 PA before 2014)

 

For completeness, the only other players to not join the team late, and get meaningful number of AB

Jonathan Herrera .658/.654/.596

Mike Carp .781/.788/.599

Last place finishes due to underperformance? Shocking.

[seabeachfred]

I think everybody and their dog knows the Sox have to acquire 2 good starters for 2015.

 

Sorry Bell but you have a helluva lot more confidence in Cherries than I have. I don't think he believes we need two good starters and is determined rather to go this low risk, high reward crap that has never worked for us before and won't work now. He wants to make a big splash by signing the Big Panda, whose OPS BTW has shrunk the past four years in a row. That splash he wants may be in shallow water and will result only in our getting our skulls crushed next season. The money should go towards pitching---every God damn penny of it if necessary to get two top notch starters and if we have to trade for a Hamels the GM must know who to dangle and who to keep. That is another area I don't have much confidence in him. Face it, two of the three years he has done a totally s***** job in the off season getting our team up to speed. Three out of four should punch hit ticket out of Boston. HE MUST GET IT RIGHT THIS WINTER.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Here is what the Sox *should* do (in my dream and on my Playstation)

 

1. Sign Lester for 5/125 (25mm AAV)

2. Sign McCarthy to 3/39 (13mm AAV)

3. Sign Panda or HanRam to 5/90 (18mm AAV)

4. Trade Betts, Bogaerts, Owens, Ed Rodriguez, and Middlebrooks to COL for Tulo and Cargo

 

That's a huge amount of salary to take on this year but it's only 1 year at such a high salary, as Cespedes, Napoli, Victorino, and many more are FA in 2016. The Sox have around 42mm committed in 2016. Panda can move across the diamond and play 1B when Nap leaves and Cecchini can play 3B. If Allen Craig can bounce back, put him in LF when Cespedes leaves.

 

2015 Lineup:

Castillo CF

Pedroia 2B

Tulo SS

Ortiz DH

Cespedes LF

Sandoval 3B

CarGo RF

Napoli 1B

Vazquez C

 

Rotation

Lester

McCarthy

Buch

Kelly

Webster/rookie

 

That will never happen, but that would be a crazy good team

[a700hitter]

Here is what the Sox *should* do (in my dream and on my Playstation)

 

1. Sign Lester for 5/125 (25mm AAV)

2. Sign McCarthy to 3/39 (13mm AAV)

3. Sign Panda or HanRam to 5/90 (18mm AAV)

4. Trade Betts, Bogaerts, Owens, Ed Rodriguez, and Middlebrooks to COL for Tulo and Cargo

 

That's a huge amount of salary to take on this year but it's only 1 year at such a high salary, as Cespedes, Napoli, Victorino, and many more are FA in 2016. The Sox have around 42mm committed in 2016. Panda can move across the diamond and play 1B when Nap leaves and Cecchini can play 3B. If Allen Craig can bounce back, put him in LF when Cespedes leaves.

 

2015 Lineup:

Castillo CF

Pedroia 2B

Tulo SS

Ortiz DH

Cespedes LF

Sandoval 3B

CarGo RF

Napoli 1B

Vazquez C

 

Rotation

Lester

McCarthy

Buch

Kelly

Webster/rookie

 

That will never happen, but that would be a crazy good team

 

And while we are in fantasy land let's top it all off with Kate Upton as our sideline reporter.

[SoxFanForsyth]

And while we are in fantasy land let's top it all off with Kate Upton as our sideline reporter.

 

Which part is unrealistic? Not that I predict that would happen but I do think it's feasible

[Bellhorn04]

In the 35 seasons between 1967 and the acquisition of the team by current ownership, there were only 6 seasons where they played below .500 ball (3 in the Butch Hobson years aka the Dark Age). The other 3 seasons wear scattered --1983, 1987 and 1997. They had one 90 loss season in those 35 seasons and no last place finishes in that period. They also had 6 Division Championships as compared to 2 Division Championships in the 13 seasons since current ownership took over.

 

As for the good old days... I am a Red Sox fan. They are all good old days. Watching Schilling, Pedro in the same rotation, those were the good old days. Watching Rice, Lynn and Evans patrol the outfield on the same team as Yaz was the good old days. Watching Wade Boggs win all those batting championships were good old days. Watching Clemens strike out 20 guys in a game twice those were good old days. They were all good old days. I am a Red Sox fan,

 

I loved those late 70's teams especially. But the thing that was crushing was never being able to win it all, of course. The new ownership has delivered championships. The championships completed me as a Sox fan. The loyalty was finally rewarded. That's why I'm still loyal to them.

 

700hitter, are you a Red Sox season ticket holder? Season ticket holders fall into a special category for me. They are the real financial supporters of the team.