2014 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

It is a datapoint. But it is evidence of what folks observe in college, high school, minor league baseball. Players who are competitive (not great, just competitive) at very young ages are excellent bets to have good careers, and also where your extra-special careers come from. I wish Bogaerts were more like a 4-win player than a "somewhat above replacement level" - that would make the projection much much more confident. But he was a competitive big leaguer - better than 2006 Pedroia, better than 2012 Iglesias. When you are his age and able to belong in the big leagues in any reasonable capacity, that is a VERY strong harbinger for a long career playing baseball for a living, with good odds of being a hell of a lot more.

 

It is a "data point"? I dont even know what that means in this context. Comparing XB s stats to those of Dwight Evans rookie year or those of any other player is anecdotal and worthless as proof of anything. You mention Iglesias. Iglesias has less career career AB s than XB. Pedroia? After 170 games, Pedroia had won Rookie of the Year. XB has played 162 games. Edited November 2, 2014 by a700hitter

[RedSoxNC84]

Well at least we don't have to see Joe Maddon's face several times in a season anymore since he signed with the Cubs.

[Station 13]

Today is free agency day.

 

We need 2 starting pitchers.

 

We need a lefty 3B.

 

We need a reliever or two.

 

We need to trade one or two of our OF.

[SoxFanForsyth]

http://nesn.com/2014/11/report-new-york-yankees-dont-plan-to-pursue-jon-lester-in-free-agency/

 

I've said this 100 times, yet some people still crap their pants over it. Lester isn't going to the Yankees.

It's Cubs or Sox.

[Station 13]

http://nesn.com/2014/11/report-new-york-yankees-dont-plan-to-pursue-jon-lester-in-free-agency/

 

I've said this 100 times, yet some people still crap their pants over it. Lester isn't going to the Yankees.

It's Cubs or Sox.

 

Don't believe that for a nano second. The Yankees will get a top rotation arm, not because they can, because they need to.

[GomesBeard]

The word locally is that the Yankees aren't going after any of the top FA arms - Lester, Shields, Scherzer - which almost assuredly means they will sign one or two of them. ;-) I really can't see them going with Tanaka - Sabathia - Pineda - Nova - Phelps/Whitley/Greene.... Too much age and injury there, not to mention no star power.

[sk7326]

Today is free agency day.

 

We need 2 starting pitchers.

 

We need a lefty 3B.

 

We need a reliever or two.

 

We need to trade one or two of our OF.

 

Lester is the clear toughest get because of the lack of draft pick deterrent. Scherzer clearly will be higher on some boards too - although Lester seems to have better stuff to work through a decline phase. Either way, for me - Lester's durability is enough to be willing to ride out some decline.

 

What is interesting is what to do with the rest of the rotation - Brett Anderson is a fascinating upside play. The health is what it is, but the stuff has not gone away. A flyer on him as a #4 guy you could so a lot worse.

 

Any sort of 3B is tempting if you don't think Cecchini is ready. Obviously Ramirez and Sandoval have qualifying offers - personally Ramirez would make more sense - better on base skills granted some risk moving to a position he has not played.

 

Relief I worry less about - some of that can be addressed by ending the flirations with Workman and Webster as starters, the latter particularly has knockout stuff which probably could play up in a relief role. Miller's return would be nice, but any sort of 4 year commitment to a reliever makes me puke in my mouth a little. It'd be nice if they could convince one of those guys like Branden Morrow to try their thing in the bullpen (Justin Masterson too, although he will get a look as a starter) - dynamite stuff, but has not been able to turn over lineups consistently.

 

Cespdes is a guy to listen to calls on, Napoli is another ... not because we "should get rid of them" but because you trade value for value and if Allen Craig is going to play (and be healthy) it's going to be as a 1B. Even without it, you can figure something out there. Of the guys we auditioned in September only Barnes and De La Rosa looks like somebody who could seriously stick in the rotation significantly.

[seabeachfred]

http://nesn.com/2014/11/report-new-york-yankees-dont-plan-to-pursue-jon-lester-in-free-agency/

 

I've said this 100 times, yet some people still crap their pants over it. Lester isn't going to the Yankees.

It's Cubs or Sox.

 

I like you SFF. You're a good baseball man and a very devoted Red Sox fan, but I'm afraid you haven't learned a damn thing about the Yankees mendaciousness when it comes to free agent ballplayers. You apparently didn't learn from late 2005 when they said they weren't interested in Johnny Damon. And what happened? They said they weren't in the race for Mark Teixiera after the 2008 season. And what happened? They said they were not really thinking about Ellsbury as our season wound down last year. And what happened? My God, you got to get your head out of your pocket. You cannot believe a damn word that team says. They are liars and phonies par excellence and the spending limit doesn't mean a damn thing to them. Lester might not get to the Yankees but I wouldn't count it out by any means because they've hook winked us before---well they hook winked you but I know those bastards better than most and I don't believe one twit of what they tell people. If they turn the screws and nab one of our former star players they will.......and don't you ever forget that ever again.

[Spudboy]

Lol.

 

Okay.

 

No one takes the Yankees seriously when these "reports" come out.

[Bellhorn04]

My guess would be Scherzer to the Yankees.

[Palodios]

The Yankees missed the playoffs for two years in a row. We should expect 150-300 million worth of signings from their camp. I would imagine Lester is a significantly more desirable player than Scherzer because he'll be somewhat cheaper, he won't cost them a draft pick, Scherzer is physically ugly and won't sell tickets, and he's a postseason ace.

 

It really comes down to what Lester wants, and who gives him how much.

[jacksonianmarch]

I have said all along that Cashman does not want to give away the 17th pick in the draft. Lester is not attached to draft pick status. Neither is McCarthy or Headley. If we can bring in some talent without mortgaging the future, we're gonna set ourselves up right. I doubt that we're winning a title in 15 or 16 unless we have some career resurgences, which aren't happening after the roid cleanup. We need to make sure that 2017 is the year we roll.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I like you SFF. You're a good baseball man and a very devoted Red Sox fan, but I'm afraid you haven't learned a damn thing about the Yankees mendaciousness when it comes to free agent ballplayers. You apparently didn't learn from late 2005 when they said they weren't interested in Johnny Damon. And what happened? They said they weren't in the race for Mark Teixiera after the 2008 season. And what happened? They said they were not really thinking about Ellsbury as our season wound down last year. And what happened? My God, you got to get your head out of your pocket. You cannot believe a damn word that team says. They are liars and phonies par excellence and the spending limit doesn't mean a damn thing to them. Lester might not get to the Yankees but I wouldn't count it out by any means because they've hook winked us before---well they hook winked you but I know those bastards better than most and I don't believe one twit of what they tell people. If they turn the screws and nab one of our former star players they will.......and don't you ever forget that ever again.

 

Sig bet that the Yankees don't sign lester Scherzer shields hanram or panda?

[jopete19]

I've heard rumors today about Sandoval... 5 years 100 million. Anyone hear anything else?

[SoxFanForsyth]

I've heard rumors today about Sandoval... 5 years 100 million. Anyone hear anything else?

 

Yup. Same guy who broke Castillo signing has it.

 

 

Translated to English:

 

Marino_Pepen : SOURCE : Pablo Sandoval could be arriving at an agreement with #RedSox 5 years and $ 100 MM . #RedSoxNation #MLB

[BSN07]

20M a season is a bit scary but I'd be in favor of that signing if it's legit. Very doubtful it's true so early on in FA tho. That's probably the Sox best offer and I doubt they would give it this fast and let Panda's agent shop it around. But the Hot Stove is officially lit Here's to countless rumors that come out fast and heavy only to be shot down by other sources mere minutes later lol

[sk7326]

Yup. Same guy who broke Castillo signing has it.

 

 

Translated to English:

 

Marino_Pepen : SOURCE : Pablo Sandoval could be arriving at an agreement with #RedSox 5 years and $ 100 MM . #RedSoxNation #MLB

 

I'd prefer Hanley for the price. At the same time, the injury history is less problematic and while Sandoval does not walk much, his high contact rate covers for some of it. Defensively (from most accounts) shaky range but good hands ... if he can reach it, he will not make mistakes.

[sk7326]

20M a season is a bit scary but I'd be in favor of that signing if it's legit. Very doubtful it's true so early on in FA tho. That's probably the Sox best offer and I doubt they would give it this fast and let Panda's agent shop it around. But the Hot Stove is officially lit Here's to countless rumors that come out fast and heavy only to be shot down by other sources mere minutes later lol

 

My shopping list:

 

1. Lester (another Lester-like starter would have to be acquired via trade if you want more than 1 - I'd like a trade better than James Shields)

2. Sandoval or Hanley

3. Brett Anderson (value play for a #4 starter)

4. Geovany Soto (if you want to do a real jobshare with Vasquez)

5. Brandon Morrow as a relief conversion option, Sergio Romo as a another (Andrew Miller is better than both but his valuation could spiral out of control)

 

 

Cueto as the prime trade target ... as noted above I see Workman and Webster prime candidates to move to the pen

[dupree]

Yup. Same guy who broke Castillo signing has it.

 

 

Translated to English:

 

Marino_Pepen : SOURCE : Pablo Sandoval could be arriving at an agreement with #RedSox 5 years and $ 100 MM . #RedSoxNation #MLB

 

I hope this is right. I'm a huge WMB fan but Sandoval would be nice in all the AL east ballparks should have some big numbers. Plugging him in the middle of the order behind Cespedes and in front of Napoli. A 3, 4, 5, & 6 of Ortiz, Cespedes, Sandoval, & Napoli would be no question the best in baseball. Come on Ben make it happen.

[SoxFanForsyth]

My shopping list:

 

1. Lester (another Lester-like starter would have to be acquired via trade if you want more than 1 - I'd like a trade better than James Shields)

2. Sandoval or Hanley

3. Brett Anderson (value play for a #4 starter)

4. Geovany Soto (if you want to do a real jobshare with Vasquez)

5. Brandon Morrow as a relief conversion option, Sergio Romo as a another (Andrew Miller is better than both but his valuation could spiral out of control)

 

 

Cueto as the prime trade target ... as noted above I see Workman and Webster prime candidates to move to the pen

 

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs wrote an excellent article today saying Cueto + Marshall for Cespedes + Webster + $$$ makes a lot of sense (and I agree).

 

Hoping that goes down. It was pure speculation on his part, but I love the idea. I think Spud may have come up with that idea on here a few weeks ago (at least the Cespedes for Cueto part).

[BSN07]

Ewwww no to Romo. He is a fly ball pitcher coming from the pitchers haven NL West.

[a700hitter]

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs wrote an excellent article today saying Cueto + Marshall for Cespedes + Webster + $$$ makes a lot of sense (and I agree).

 

Hoping that goes down. It was pure speculation on his part, but I love the idea. I think Spud may have come up with that idea on here a few weeks ago (at least the Cespedes for Cueto part).

It would have my blessing if it goes down, despit my blind hatred for the FO.

[Spudboy]

I don't recall speculating about a Cueto for Cespedes deal but I have talked about trading Cespedes.

 

I would rejoice if the Sox could land a front line starter for the guy. It's ironic, though. They traded a very good number one starter for him!

[sk7326]

Ewwww no to Romo. He is a fly ball pitcher coming from the pitchers haven NL West.

 

Fair concern and the price has to be right. Personally, I believe relievers are wholly fungible, so if Romo doesn't work - cut your ties. The bullpen will reveal itself if you just collect arms.

[seabeachfred]

Good starting pitching boys, good starting pitching!!!!!!!! That's where we have to put our money, otherwise he load up on those low risk, high reward types that have never worked out for us. I don't know what is going on in Prune Face and Cherries collective heads but you cannot slug your way to a title if your pitching stinks. Right now most of our does. Sandoval is a good talent but one we can afford to do without unless we can get both him and those two quality starters not named Masterson,, Hummels, Liriano and Santana. Otherwise s*** can it.

[sk7326]

Good starting pitching boys, good starting pitching!!!!!!!! That's where we have to put our money, otherwise he load up on those low risk, high reward types that have never worked out for us. I don't know what is going on in Prune Face and Cherries collective heads but you cannot slug your way to a title if your pitching stinks. Right now most of our does. Sandoval is a good talent but one we can afford to do without unless we can get both him and those two quality starters not named Masterson,, Hummels, Liriano and Santana. Otherwise s*** can it.

 

The Red Sox won the 2013 title without a classic #1. Lester played up to it in spots (as did Lackey) but their numbers were more good #2 than your King Felix/Kershaw rare air. (Lester had a remarkable bounce back this season to that sort of air) What you do need is to keep putting guys out there who give you a chance. Red Sox lineup needs fewer automatic outs ... in 2013 there were basically zero when you got to the end of the season. Sandoval or Ramirez can address that, and that is important. It's not an either-or thing here. I think they are in on Lester, but given his draft compensation status, so will a lot of other teams.

[Palodios]

The Red Sox won the 2013 title without a classic #1. Lester played up to it in spots (as did Lackey) but their numbers were more good #2 than your King Felix/Kershaw rare air.

 

I've been arguing that Lester is a #1 pitcher for years. After 2013, I really shouldn't need to anymore.

Edited November 6, 2014 by Palodios

[Bellhorn04]

We shouldn't really have to argue as much as we do about who's a #1 or a #2 etc. If the guy is in the top 20% statistically he's a #1. The next 20% are #2's etc.

[BSN07]

The Rockies have told other teams that they are willing to consider trade scenarios involving their two best players, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

 

While the likelihood of a deal remains rather slight, and neither player is being shopped around, the report does indicate that Colorado is much more open to moving one of its stars than it had been previously. Notably, Rosenthal says that the Rockies are telling clubs that they will not accept a return that does not provide fair value for the healthy production levels of both players.

 

I'd like to see them get Tulo for 3B(I feel moving him from SS could help keep him on the field) but if the Rox price would seem to be too high for a player with injury issues.

 

Cargo be an interesting option. I wonder what his price tag will be.

 

 

As expected, the Marlins have begun extension talks with star outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports on Twitter. President of baseball operations Michael Hill tells Spencer that the team has “reached out” to Stanton’s representatives and that “negotiations are ongoing.”

 

I still think Stanton would cost too much but does anyone else find the constant public acknowledgment the Marlins FO have been giving on their efforts to sign Stanton to an extension a bit odd? I mean we all understood they were gonna try when they first made it known. Why do we need to be reminded every day? Something smells fishy to me. And we all know how the Marlins work. I'm starting to feel like they are setting up for the PR fallout from actually trading Stanton this off season. They will be able to claim they "tried" to sign him blah blah blah.

 

Still some big names out there early on this off season

[Bellhorn04]

I still think Stanton would cost too much but does anyone else find the constant public acknowledgment the Marlins FO have been giving on their efforts to sign Stanton to an extension a bit odd? I mean we all understood they were gonna try when they first made it known. Why do we need to be reminded every day? Something smells fishy to me. And we all know how the Marlins work. I'm starting to feel like they are setting up for the PR fallout from actually trading Stanton this off season. They will be able to claim they "tried" to sign him blah blah blah.

 

I think what they're doing is two things: 1) Confirming that there's no way they can meet his demands; 2) The PR thing you're suggesting.

 

It's the only thing they can do, really. Things are setting up for him to be traded by this year's deadline.