Lester/Gomes to the A's

[sk7326]

What? What? If a guy is hitting .330 with no runner on base, and .100 with runners in scoring position then you have a problem. The last time I looked in baseball you win if you score runs. Someone needs to drive them in - RBIs!

 

all true - but not a repeatable, specific skill. Good hitters are good hitters are good hitters. Some good hitters are better than other good hitters, but it is about the goodness, not the externalities.

[InfernoOrangeSS]

If clutch existed to any meaningful extent, it would be easily documented. And it hasn't been. It's the same as what to most of us seems obvious: that basketball players get on 'hot' streaks. Of course they do ... Except they don't, and hot streaks have been shown to be indistinguishable from chance performance (right--Bird had more of them than, say, Jim Luscatof, because he has a higher fg percentage). Same goes for "protection" for hitters, which has repeatedly been shown to be mythical. And of course, the idiotic bunt sacrifice and moving the runner up (not rocket science--the most bases you can 'move the runner up with an out' in an inning is two, and unfortunately ... oh well). But so what? We watch sports for the mythology, not the reality! That's why when Gomes claims responsibility for WS wins, there will always be those who believe him. Maybe our clinging to the notion of 'intangibles' gives us the illusion that we too can 'get our minds right' and be professional athletes too. Sure. Just as I see no reason the RS can't go on a run, win all their final games, and bring another WS back this year.

 

Next you are going to tell me that wearing my lucky shirt has no bearing on games.

 

[sk7326]

It's not even just that. It's pitchers who have X amount of 200+ innings under their belt basically.

 

I think what they theorize is that pitchers only have X amount of innings on their arm, which is probably pretty fair, and so it's not necessarily "over 30" as much as it is "they have X innings under their belt and project to have another 1,000 innings, of which we project 500 of them will have an increased risk of injury"

 

Rules of thumb is fair, but there are also specific guys - considerations of mechanics and whatnot. Lester's low effort delivery and mechanics combined with his consistency show a guy who has shown no reason not to be considered durable.

 

Now that said, I do think there was an understanding in the last few days between Lester and management that they might sell him off for the season because it's good business. And the Red Sox probably (if they play at this pace) will not have to forfeit a first round pick to sign a qualifying FA. As such, Lester's return might be more likely than postulated.

[a700hitter]

all true - but not a repeatable, specific skill. Good hitters are good hitters are good hitters. Some good hitters are better than other good hitters, but it is about the goodness, not the externalities.

The mental aspect cannot be disregarded, nor can it be assumed that all players of a certain talent level handle the mental aspect in the same manner. Not only is there no consistency of this aspect among players. There is no uniformity with regard to how each player handles the stresses from day to day. Slumps often become mental for hitters-- even good hitters. Some players handle the day to day games fine, but bigger spots they don't handle so well. They are people not robots. Some people are mentally stronger than others --even at the MLB level there are differences.

[sk7326]

The mental aspect cannot be disregarded, nor can it be assumed that all players of a certain talent level handle the mental aspect in the same manner. Not only is there no consistency of this aspect among players. There is no uniformity with regard to how each player handles the stresses from day to day. Slumps often become mental for hitters-- even good hitters. Some players handle the day to day games fine, but bigger spots they don't handle so well. They are people not robots. Some people are mentally stronger than others --even at the MLB level there are differences.

 

Those differences are baked into the results, part of being good. There is no evidence that baserunner context, phase of the moon, time in the game have any impact on these differences.

[a700hitter]

Those differences are baked into the results, part of being good. There is no evidence that baserunner context, phase of the moon, time in the game have any impact on these differences.

metrics are not everything. The players will tell you who are the most mentally tough players in big spots. I' ll give way more credence to their opinion than any statistical evidence or lack of evidence. If the players look to other players in big spots, that is good enough for me. Not every good player is good in big spots.

[seabeachfred]

It's called luck. Bad luck, to be specific.

 

 

 

This logic is so f***ing horrible that I'm legitimately offended that you tried to present it as a valid point.

 

When I'm offended that you can see the forest from the trees or your head from your ass. You have to score runs to win. The only way to do that is to drive them in, otherwise you lead the league in runners left on base, which if you gotten your head out know that this has been our problem all season. Or do you have a better way of scoring runs???? You don't!!!!

[Bellhorn04]

Those differences are baked into the results, part of being good. There is no evidence that baserunner context, phase of the moon, time in the game have any impact on these differences.

 

But when I point out that Jeff Bagwell's postseason OPS is 263 points lower than his regular season OPS, you dismiss it, because it's 'only' 129 PA's.

 

Well, of course, 129 PA's is the entirety of Bagwell's postseason career. That's as big as the sample will ever be. So we'll never know if the results would have continued that way.

 

In my opinion, we can't prove clutch hitting, but we shouldn't outright dismiss it either.

[Behindenemylines]

all true - but not a repeatable, specific skill. Good hitters are good hitters are good hitters. Some good hitters are better than other good hitters, but it is about the goodness, not the externalities.

 

I think a hitters batting average with runners in scoring position is a key statistic. Especially now with homeruns down it is important to have guys that can get those runners home. It kills me when there is a runner on third and less then two outs and the hitter can't get him home. There are guys that always find away to get that run home.

[Bellhorn04]

I think a hitters batting average with runners in scoring position is a key statistic. Especially now with homeruns down it is important to have guys that can get those runners home. It kills me when there is a runner on third and less then two outs and the hitter can't get him home. There are guys that always find away to get that run home.

 

If you want to try to prove that some guys are exceptionally good at this over their careers, the statistics are readily available on Baseball-Ref.

[a700hitter]

Lester pitched 3 hit complete game shutout last night. His cash register is ringing up his pricer almost as fast as the National Debt clock. I can't see us outbidding the Yankees. OUr best shot will probably be with Scherzer. I think the Tigers getting Price who is under contract for another season means that the Tigers are not going to attempt to re-sign Scherzer.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Lester pitched 3 hit complete game shutout last night. His cash register is ringing up his pricer almost as fast as the National Debt clock. I can't see us outbidding the Yankees. OUr best shot will probably be with Scherzer. I think the Tigers getting Price who is under contract for another season means that the Tigers are not going to attempt to re-sign Scherzer.

 

I am not saying the Sox will get Lester back, but Lester isn't the kind of guy who is just going to go to the highest bidder. He's going to figure out which city is best for his family and go there. And that's exactly why he will not go to LA or NYC.

 

He'll either be in Seattle, Chicago, or Boston.

[Station 13]

I am not saying the Sox will get Lester back, but Lester isn't the kind of guy who is just going to go to the highest bidder. He's going to figure out which city is best for his family and go there. And that's exactly why he will not go to LA or NYC.

 

He'll either be in Seattle, Chicago, or Boston.

 

Red Sox need to make a competitive offer, like within 10-15M of the highest bids. I hope we don't stop with Lester, another arm is needed.

[seabeachfred]

I am not saying the Sox will get Lester back, but Lester isn't the kind of guy who is just going to go to the highest bidder. He's going to figure out which city is best for his family and go there. And that's exactly why he will not go to LA or NYC.

 

He'll either be in Seattle, Chicago, or Boston.

 

Get off the Lester back to Boston kick SFF. HE IS NOT COMING BACK TO THE RED SOX, NOT NOW, NOT NEXT YEAR, NOT EVER. When he signs his new contract, you had better hope he likes playing in his native state or wants to join the up and coming Cubs and rejoin Theo Epstein. If he signs with the Yankees, this board and RSN in general, save for the pollyannas and bootlickers, will be in a state of open revolt against the owners and front office. I hope it doesn't come to that.

[a700hitter]

I also hope that it doesn't come down to losing another of our homegrown stars to the Yanks. I have had enough of that, and I will not care about any BS rationalization that they float in the press. Lester could have been locked up in Spring Training with a reasonable deal. They offered him F.U. Money and it probably pissed him off. Now, he will probably give them an F.U. and sign elsewhere. If he signs with the Yankees, Red Sox Nation had better stock up on KY jelly because it will be painful getting beat by our 2 former heros wearing Yankee uniforms.

[Spudboy]

I also hope that it doesn't come down to losing another of our homegrown stars to the Yanks. I have had enough of that, and I will not care about any BS rationalization that they float in the press. Lester could have been locked up in Spring Training with a reasonable deal. They offered him F.U. Money and it probably pissed him off. Now, he will probably give them an F.U. and sign elsewhere. If he signs with the Yankees, Red Sox Nation had better stock up on KY jelly because it will be painful getting beat by our 2 former heros wearing Yankee uniforms.

 

I had the occasion to listen to WEEI this afternoon ( I don't make a habit of doing this ). The topic was Cherrington's statement about different ways ( from adding a #1 and #2 ) to build a rotation that is competitive. Naturally the Sox reluctance to pay market value was brought up. They played a tape of a conversation with Buster Olney. On this tape Olney said that on the evening of June 8 ( when Lester was facing the Yankees! ) the Sox called the agents of Lester and offered "Homer Bailey money". Something like 6/100. It seems the agents said no thanks, we want more a like Sherzer type deal.

 

If this is all true, the Sox brass made at least two sub-market offers. How dumb! If they were serious at all about retaining Lester they should have offered 5/120 -5/135 or 6/120 - 6/135. That would have been enough, as I see it, since Lester has voiced his desire to stay and a willingness to take a home town discount.

 

I'm surprised that the Sox offered 6 years!!! What the hell???? Again, I just do not understand what in the wild, wild world of sports is going on. It was my understanding that the Sox wanted to avoid committing to 5-7 years!

 

Oh well.

Edited August 8, 2014 by Spudboy

[InfernoOrangeSS]

Get off the Lester back to Boston kick SFF. HE IS NOT COMING BACK TO THE RED SOX, NOT NOW, NOT NEXT YEAR, NOT EVER.

 

Do you have some inside information, or is that just your opinion?

[Spudboy]

Do you have some inside information, or is that just your opinion?

 

Lol.

 

I don't have any inside info but I really doubt that the Sox sign Lester for all the reasons I have stated over the past two-three months.

 

I hope that I am wrong, though.

[a700hitter]

I had the occasion to listen to WEEI this afternoon ( I don't make a habit of doing this ). The topic was Cherrington's statement about different ways ( from adding a #1 and #2 ) to build a rotation that is competitive. Naturally the Sox reluctance to pay market value was brought up. They played a tape of a conversation with Buster Olney. On this tape Olney said that on the evening of June 8 ( when Lester was facing the Yankees! ) the Sox called the agents of Lester and offered "Homer Bailey money". Something like 6/100. It seems the agents said no thanks, we want more a like Sherzer type deal.

 

If this is all true, the Sox brass made at least two sub-market offers. How dumb! If they were serious at all about retaining Lester they should have offered 5/120 -5/135 or 6/120 - 6/135. That would have been enough, as I see it, since Lester has voiced his desire to stay and a willingness to take a home town discount.

 

I'm surprised that the Sox offered 6 years!!! What the hell???? Again, I just do not understand what in the wild, wild world of sports is going on. It was my understanding that the Sox wanted to avoid committing to 5-7 years!

 

Oh well.

One thing to note is that Lester expressed a desire to "stay" in Boston. Undoubtedly, he didn't want to uproot his family. He didn't want to stay because he enjoys the traffic patterns in and around the Boston area or because he loves the fans. Now that we have uprooted him and his family by trading him, they will see and live in a new place for a couple of months. Maybe they decide to put down roots elsewhere.

[reYoukilis]

I had the occasion to listen to WEEI this afternoon ( I don't make a habit of doing this ). The topic was Cherrington's statement about different ways ( from adding a #1 and #2 ) to build a rotation that is competitive. Naturally the Sox reluctance to pay market value was brought up. They played a tape of a conversation with Buster Olney. On this tape Olney said that on the evening of June 8 ( when Lester was facing the Yankees! ) the Sox called the agents of Lester and offered "Homer Bailey money". Something like 6/100. It seems the agents said no thanks, we want more a like Sherzer type deal.

 

If this is all true, the Sox brass made at least two sub-market offers. How dumb! If they were serious at all about retaining Lester they should have offered 5/120 -5/135 or 6/120 - 6/135. That would have been enough, as I see it, since Lester has voiced his desire to stay and a willingness to take a home town discount.

 

I'm surprised that the Sox offered 6 years!!! What the hell???? Again, I just do not understand what in the wild, wild world of sports is going on. It was my understanding that the Sox wanted to avoid committing to 5-7 years!

 

Oh well.

Maybe he IS coming back. They use him to get a good player on the cheap, promise a healthy contract if he returns and let him play on a winning team.

[InfernoOrangeSS]

Lol.

 

I don't have any inside info but I really doubt that the Sox sign Lester for all the reasons I have stated over the past two-three months.

 

I hope that I am wrong, though.

 

I agree with you. I doubt it happens, but hope I am wrong. I was just curious about the guy who went all caps fanatically. I assumed someone like that must know for sure from somewhere.

[Spudboy]

One thing to note is that Lester expressed a desire to "stay" in Boston. Undoubtedly, he didn't want to uproot his family. He didn't want to stay because he enjoys the traffic patterns in and around the Boston area or because he loves the fans. Now that we have uprooted him and his family by trading him, they will see and live in a new place for a couple of months. Maybe they decide to put down roots elsewhere.

 

I agree. The family aspect is never spoken about. Lester mentioned it in a post game interview and I cough onto it. When asked about the adjustment that he would be making playing for a new organization and with new teammates, he said that he was more concerned about getting his family settled and being able to get to the park on time.

 

I think that he's gone for good.

 

Too bad. It all could have been avoided if the Sox had played it smart by trying to sign him after the series last year or even during the 2013 season.

 

Stupid. Just stupid.

[Spudboy]

I know that I've been a critic of Cespedes since the Lester trade. I think that he is not very skilled in the outfield, especially for a player who is 29 years old. BUT...there is no way to ignore that he has an absolute cannon of an arm and unlike his overthrow of second base last night, he is more often than not very accurate.

 

Bouncing about baseball sites today I happened upon this clip which highlights many of his spectacular throws for assists.

 

Screw the home run derby and batting practice highlights. This man makes some of the most exiting plays in the game. I look forward to to seeing him make these throws for the Sox.

 

"Enjoy".

 

[seabeachfred]

Do you have some inside information, or is that just your opinion?

 

Gut feeling IOSS, a very strong gut feeling. The way the FO insulted Jon with that lowball offer and even refused to get smart and start negotiations right after we won the WS when Lester was in a good mood, was proof enough that this whole thing was a gigantic front office clusterf***.

[InfernoOrangeSS]

Gut feeling IOSS, a very strong gut feeling. The way the FO insulted Jon with that lowball offer and even refused to get smart and start negotiations right after we won the WS when Lester was in a good mood, was proof enough that this whole thing was a gigantic front office clusterf***.

 

I respect your gut feeling. I just saw you post in all caps that it was beyond any hope of him ever coming back and thought maybe you had some info on it. I think it is a slim chance that he comes back, but I would not be surprised to see him in a Red Sox uniform next year. I am not as caustic on our front office as you are, but I don't think that they are a "Do no wrong" group either. I just feel that their track record speaks for itself and I am hopeful for what they can bring in once the off-season starts.

[Northern Star]

I know that I've been a critic of Cespedes since the Lester trade. I think that he is not very skilled in the outfield, especially for a player who is 29 years old. BUT...there is no way to ignore that he has an absolute cannon of an arm and unlike his overthrow of second base last night, he is more often than not very accurate.

 

Bouncing about baseball sites today I happened upon this clip which highlights many of his spectacular throws for assists.

 

Screw the home run derby and batting practice highlights. This man makes some of the most exiting plays in the game. I look forward to to seeing him make these throws for the Sox.

 

"Enjoy".

 

 

for the next year, sure. then what?

[Behindenemylines]

Lester has young kids and all they have known as home is Boston. I think that will have some effect on his decision. If it is just about the $$$$$$ then he will be in New York next season. The Sox make a reasonable offer he might take it. If they jack around again he will be playing for the $pankees.

[SoxFanForsyth]

for the next year, sure. then what?

 

Would certainly expect the Sox to sign Cespedes. Can't imagine you dish Lester for him unless you know you're resigning him.

[Behindenemylines]

If Lester wins Cy Young and leads A's to WS his value will continue to rise, and his chance of returning to Boston will become less.

[rician blast]

I had the occasion to listen to WEEI this afternoon ( I don't make a habit of doing this ). The topic was Cherrington's statement about different ways ( from adding a #1 and #2 ) to build a rotation that is competitive. Naturally the Sox reluctance to pay market value was brought up. They played a tape of a conversation with Buster Olney. On this tape Olney said that on the evening of June 8 ( when Lester was facing the Yankees! ) the Sox called the agents of Lester and offered "Homer Bailey money". Something like 6/100. It seems the agents said no thanks, we want more a like Sherzer type deal.

 

If this is all true, the Sox brass made at least two sub-market offers. How dumb! If they were serious at all about retaining Lester they should have offered 5/120 -5/135 or 6/120 - 6/135. That would have been enough, as I see it, since Lester has voiced his desire to stay and a willingness to take a home town discount.

 

I'm surprised that the Sox offered 6 years!!! What the hell???? Again, I just do not understand what in the wild, wild world of sports is going on. It was my understanding that the Sox wanted to avoid committing to 5-7 years!

 

Oh well.

 

If the offer stated above was a starting point, here's how the "negotiation" could have gone. Sox offer $100/6 years. Lester's agent counters $140/7. Sox say $115/6. Agents says $125/6 with a mutual option. They settle on $120/6.

 

I don't see how that is a horrific initial offer. It's a starting point. You don't come in high to start and you certainly don't say "take it or leave it." If anything, assuming Lester's camp didn't counter at all, it's probably a good indicator that a deal wasn't going to get done without the Sox overpaying. This is business, that's all.